O monitoramento climático e o alerta de desastres naturais na era da comunicação digital

This article presents considerations concerning the interaction between communication and digital platforms and applications developed to perform computerized climate monitoring and issue alerts about natural disasters. From work in the Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Alert (CIADEN), which processes meteorological data provided by Platform Monitoring, Analysis and Warning TerraMA2 designed by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) to conduct monitoring and fi ring warning about climate risk environment, we propose the expansion of interactivity with the various possibilities of digital communication available today for signifi cant portion of society. On another front, the CIADEN has articulated teaching and research on climate monitoring and warning of natural disasters, weather, and geoprocessing environment, involving teachers and students both in school and in higher and technical.

Modelos de circulación global y procesos de mezcla en el océano

La difusividad diapicna en el océano es uno de los parámetros más desconocidos en los modelos climáticos actuales. Su importancia radica en que es uno de los principales factores de transporte de calor hacia capas más profundas del océano. Las medidas de esta difusividad son variables e insuficientes para confeccionar un mapa global con estos valores. A través de una amplia revisión bibliográfica hasta el año 2009 del tema se encontró que el sistema climático es extremadamente sensible a la difusividad diapicna, donde el escalado del Océano Pacífico Sur, con una potencia de su coeficiente de difusividad o kv de 0.63, resultó ser más sensible a los cambios en el coeficiente de difusividad diapicna que el Océano Atlántico con una potencia de kv de 0.44 , se pone de manifiesto así la necesidad de esclarecer los esquemas de mezcla, esquemas de clausura y sus parametrizaciones a través de Modelos de Circulación Global (GCMs) y Modelos de Complejidad Intermedia del Sistema Terrestre (EMICs), dentro del marco de un posible cambio climático y un calentamiento global debido al aumento de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Así, el objetivo principal de este trabajo es comprender la sensibilidad del sistema climático a la difusividad diapicna en el océano a través de los GCMs y los EMICs. Para esto es necesario el análisis de los posibles esquemas de mezcla diapicna con el objetivo final de encontrar el modelo óptimo que permita predecir la evolución del sistema climático, el estudio de todas las variables que influyen en el mismo, y la correcta simulación en largos periodos de tiempo. The diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean is one of the least known parameters in current climate models. Measurements of this diffusivity are sparse and insufficient for compiling a global map. Through a lengthy review of the literature through 2009 found that the climate system is extremely sensitive to the diapycnal diffusivity, where in the South Pacific scales with the 0.63 power of the diapycnal diffusion, in contrasts to the scales with the 0.44 power of the diapycnal diffusion of North Atlantic. Therefore, the South Pacific is more sensitive than the North Atlantic. All this evidenced the need to clarify the schemes of mixing and its parameterisations through Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) within a context of possible climate change and global warming due to increased of emissions of greenhouse gases. Thus, the main objective of this work understands the sensitivity of the climate system to diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean through the GCMs and EMICs. This requires the analysis of possible schemes of diapycnal mixing with the ultimate goal of finding the optimal model to predict the evolution of the climate system, the study of all variables that affect it and the correct simulation over long periods of time.

Sistemi per la climatizzazione mediante pompe di calore geotermiche e pali energetici

We need a large amount of energy to make our homes pleasantly warm in winter and cool in summer. If we also consider the energy losses that occur through roofs, perimeter walls and windows, it would be more appropriate to speak of waste than consumption. The solution would be to build passive houses, i.e. buildings more efficient and environmentally friendly, able to ensure a drastic reduction of electricity and heating bills. Recently, the increase of public awareness about global warming and environmental pollution problems have “finally” opened wide possibility in the field of sustainable construction by encouraging new renewable methods for heating and cooling space. Shallow geothermal allows to exploit the renewable heat reservoir, present in the soil at depths between 15 and 20 m, for air-conditioning of buildings, using a ground source heat pump. This thesis focuses on the design of an air-conditioning system with geothermal heat pump coupled to energy piles, i.e. piles with internal heat exchangers, for a typical Italian-family building, on the basis of a geological-technical report about a plot of Bologna’s plain provided by Geo-Net s.r.l. The study has involved a preliminary static sizing of the piles in order to calculate their length and number, then the project was completed making the energy sizing, where it has been verified if the building energy needs were met with the static solution obtained. Finally the attention was focused on the technical and economical validity compared to a traditional system (cost-benefit analysis) and on the problem of the uncertainty data design and their effects on the operating and initial costs of the system (sensitivity analysis). To evaluate the performance of the thermal system and the potential use of the piles was also used the PILESIM2 software, designed by Dr. Pahud of the SUPSI’s school.

Investigation of the lithium ion mobility in cyclic model compounds and their ion conducting properties

Efficient energy storage and conversion is playing a key role in overcoming the present and future challenges in energy supply. Batteries provide portable, electrochemical storage of green energy sources and potentially allow for a reduction of the dependence on fossil fuels, which is of great importance with respect to the issue of global warming. In view of both, energy density and energy drain, rechargeable lithium ion batteries outperform other present accumulator systems. However, despite great efforts over the last decades, the ideal electrolyte in terms of key characteristics such as capacity, cycle life, and most important reliable safety, has not yet been identified. rnrnSteps ahead in lithium ion battery technology require a fundamental understanding of lithium ion transport, salt association, and ion solvation within the electrolyte. Indeed, well-defined model compounds allow for systematic studies of molecular ion transport. Thus, in the present work, based on the concept of ‘immobilizing’ ion solvents, three main series with a cyclotriphosphazene (CTP), hexaphenylbenzene (HBP), and tetramethylcyclotetrasiloxane (TMS) scaffold were prepared. Lithium ion solvents, among others ethylene carbonate (EC), which has proven to fulfill together with pro-pylene carbonate safety and market concerns in commercial lithium ion batteries, were attached to the different cores via alkyl spacers of variable length.rnrnAll model compounds were fully characterized, pure and thermally stable up to at least 235 °C, covering the requested broad range of glass transition temperatures from -78.1 °C up to +6.2 °C. While the CTP models tend to rearrange at elevated temperatures over time, which questions the general stability of alkoxide related (poly)phosphazenes, both, the HPB and CTP based models show no evidence of core stacking. In particular the CTP derivatives represent good solvents for various lithium salts, exhibiting no significant differences in the ionic conductivity σ_dc and thus indicating comparable salt dissociation and rather independent motion of cations and ions.rnrnIn general, temperature-dependent bulk ionic conductivities investigated via impedance spectroscopy follow a William-Landel-Ferry (WLF) type behavior. Modifications of the alkyl spacer length were shown to influence ionic conductivities only in combination to changes in glass transition temperatures. Though the glass transition temperatures of the blends are low, their conductivities are only in the range of typical polymer electrolytes. The highest σ_dc obtained at ambient temperatures was 6.0 x 10-6 S•cm-1, strongly suggesting a rather tight coordination of the lithium ions to the solvating 2-oxo-1,3-dioxolane moieties, supported by the increased σ_dc values for the oligo(ethylene oxide) based analogues.rnrnFurther insights into the mechanism of lithium ion dynamics were derived from 7Li and 13C Solid- State NMR investigations. While localized ion motion was probed by i.e. 7Li spin-lattice relaxation measurements with apparent activation energies E_a of 20 to 40 kJ/mol, long-range macroscopic transport was monitored by Pulsed-Field Gradient (PFG) NMR, providing an E_a of 61 kJ/mol. The latter is in good agreement with the values determined from bulk conductivity data, indicating the major contribution of ion transport was only detected by PFG NMR. However, the μm-diffusion is rather slow, emphasizing the strong lithium coordination to the carbonyl oxygens, which hampers sufficient ion conductivities and suggests exploring ‘softer’ solvating moieties in future electrolytes.rn

Waste management in Forlì-Cesena province: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Forlì incinerator

This work assesses the environmental impact of a municipal solid waste incinerator with energy recovery in Forlì-Cesena province (Emilia-Romagna region, Italy). The methodology used is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). As the plant already applies the best technologies available in waste treatment, this study focuses on the fate of the residues (bottom and fly ash) produced during combustion. Nine scenarios are made, based on different ash treatment disposing/recycling techniques. The functional unit is the amount of waste incinerated in 2011. Boundaries are set from waste arrival in the plant to the disposal/recovery of the residues produced, with energy recovery. Only the operative period is considered. Software used is GaBi 4 and the LCIA method used is CML2001. The impact categories analyzed are: abiotic depletion, acidification, eutrophication, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, global warming, human toxicity, ozone layer depletion, photochemical oxidant formation, terrestrial ecotoxicity and primary energy demand. Most of the data are taken from Herambiente. When primary data are not available, data from Ecoinvent and GaBi databases or literature data are used. The whole incineration process is sustainable, due to the relevant avoided impact given by co-generator. As far as regards bottom ash treatment, the most influential process is the impact savings from iron recovery. Bottom ash recycling in road construction or as building material are both valid alternatives, even if the first option faces legislative limits in Italy. Regarding fly ash inertization, the adding of cement and Ferrox treatment results the most feasible alternatives. However, this inertized fly ash can maintain its hazardous nature. The only method to ensure the stability of an inertized fly ash is to couple two different stabilization treatments. Ash stabilization technologies shall improve with the same rate of the flexibility of the national legislation about incineration residues recycling.

Waldbrandprognose und Waldbrandbekämpfung in Deutschland

Ist Deutschland auf Waldbrandkatastrophen vorbereitet? Dies ist die zentrale Frage dieser wissenschaftlichen Arbeit. Zahlreiche Großwaldbrände der Vergangenheit zeigen ein deutliches Waldbrandpotential für die bundesdeutschen Areale, speziell in Ostdeutschland. Als eine der Folgen des global warming ist zukünftig mit einem Anstieg der Gefahrensituation zu rechnen. Anhand der Untersuchung zweier Katastrophenwaldbrände wurden Schwachstellen bei der Bekämpfung dieser Waldbrände aufgezeigt, aber auch positive Aspekte herausgestellt. Die wichtigste Erkenntnis ist hierbei die große Bedeutung der Brandbekämpfung aus der Luft. Sie spielt die Schlüsselrolle bei der Bekämpfung von Großwaldbränden. Daher untersucht diese Arbeit die aktuelle Situation in Deutschland und erstellt erstmals ein bundesweites Kataster der Hubschrauberaußenlastbehälter sowie den dazugehörigen Trägerfahrzeugen (Hubschrauber). Aufgrund dieses Katasters sowie einer Auflistung der Systeme zur Branddetektion (Feuerwachtürme und kameragestützte Systeme) kommt diese Arbeit zu dem Ergebnis, dass man in Deutschland gut auf Waldbrandkatastrophen vorbereitet ist. Gleichzeitig liefert diese Arbeit aber auch Optimierungsmöglichkeiten in Form eines Maßnahmenkatalogs. So ist beispielsweise das System der Waldbrandprognose nach M-68 zu überarbeiten, da es die tatsächliche Gefährdungslage teilweise unterschätzt, Simulationsprogramme zur Ausbreitung von Waldbränden sind zu entwickeln, Sicherheitsregeln sind einzuführen. Weiterhin ist die indirekte Brandbekämpfung durch die Aufstellung von task-forces in Deutschland erstmalig zu ermöglichen.

Open Data and Earth Observations The Case of Opening Up Access to and Use of Earth Observation Data Through the Global Earth Observation System of Systems

Earth observations (EO) represent a growing and valuable resource for many scientific, research and practical applications carried out by users around the world. Access to EO data for some applications or activities, like climate change research or emergency response activities, becomes indispensable for their success. However, often EO data or products made of them are (or are claimed to be) subject to intellectual property law protection and are licensed under specific conditions regarding access and use. Restrictive conditions on data use can be prohibitive for further work with the data. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is an initiative led by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) with the aim to provide coordinated, comprehensive, and sustained EO and information for making informed decisions in various areas beneficial to societies, their functioning and development. It seeks to share data with users world-wide with the fewest possible restrictions on their use by implementing GEOSS Data Sharing Principles adopted by GEO. The Principles proclaim full and open exchange of data shared within GEOSS, while recognising relevant international instruments and national policies and legislation through which restrictions on the use of data may be imposed.The paper focuses on the issue of the legal interoperability of data that are shared with varying restrictions on use with the aim to explore the options of making data interoperable. The main question it addresses is whether the public domain or its equivalents represent the best mechanism to ensure legal interoperability of data. To this end, the paper analyses legal protection regimes and their norms applicable to EO data. Based on the findings, it highlights the existing public law statutory, regulatory, and policy approaches, as well as private law instruments, such as waivers, licenses and contracts, that may be used to place the datasets in the public domain, or otherwise make them publicly available for use and re-use without restrictions. It uses GEOSS and the particular characteristics of it as a system to identify the ways to reconcile the vast possibilities it provides through sharing of data from various sources and jurisdictions on the one hand, and the restrictions on the use of the shared resources on the other. On a more general level the paper seeks to draw attention to the obstacles and potential regulatory solutions for sharing factual or research data for the purposes that go beyond research and education.

Identification of glacial meltwater runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the meltwater can be drained by underlying karst systems, making it difficult to assess water availability. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland) and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, geologic information and the findings from tracer experiments were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier meltwater is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season meltwater enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections with the glacier melt model reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

Last interglacial temperature evolution — a model inter-comparison

There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG). This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter temperatures. Secondly, for the Atlantic region, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific, possible changes in the characteristics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are crucial. Thirdly, the presence of remnant continental ice from the preceding glacial has shown to be important when determining the timing of maximum LIG warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, the results reveal that changes in the monsoon regime exert a strong control on the evolution of LIG temperatures over parts of Africa and India. By listing these inter-model differences, we provide a starting point for future proxy-data studies and the sensitivity experiments needed to constrain the climate simulations and to further enhance our understanding of the temperature evolution of the LIG period.

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Vegetation shift and laurophyllisation: the possible role of forest fires

Southern Switzerland is a fire prone area where fire has to be considered as a natural environmental factor. In the past decades, fire frequency has tended to increase due to changes in landscape management. The most common type of fire is surface fire which normally breaks out during the vegetation resting period. Usually this type of fire shows short residence time (rapid spread), low to medium fire intensity and limited size. South-facing slopes are particularly fire-prone, so that very high fire frequency is possible: under these conditions passive resistant species and postfire resprouting species are favoured, usually leading to a reduction in the number of surviving species to a few fire adapted sprouters. Evergreen broadleaves are extremely sensitive to repeated fires. A simulation of the potential vegetation of southern Switzerland under climatic changed conditions evidenced the coincidence of the potential area of spreading forests rich in evergreen broad-leaved species with the most fire-prone area of the region. Therefore, in future, wildfires could play an important regulating role: most probably they will not stop the large-scale laurophyllisation of the thermophilous forests of southern Switzerland, but at sites with high fire frequency the vegetation shift could be slowed or even prevented by fire-disturbances.

Seaweed - epiphyte - mesograzer communities were tested for their responses to elevated seawater temperature and [CO2] in benthic mesocosms experiments across four consecutive seasons of one year in Kiel, Germany

Rising seawater temperature and CO2 concentrations (ocean acidification) represent two of the most influential factors impacting marine ecosystems in the face of global climate change. In ecological climate change research full-factorial experiments across seasons in multi-species, cross-trophic level set-ups are essential as they allow making realistic estimations about direct and indirect effects and the relative importance of both major environmental stressors on ecosystems. In benthic mesocosm experiments we tested the responses of coastal Baltic Sea Fucus vesiculosus communities to elevated seawater temperature and CO2 concentrations across four seasons of one year. While increasing [CO2] levels only had minor effects, warming had strong and persistent effects on grazers which affected the Fucus community differently depending on season. In late summer a temperature-driven collapse of grazers caused a cascading effect from the consumers to the foundation species resulting in overgrowth of Fucus thalli by epiphytes. In fall/ winter, outside the growing season of epiphytes, intensified grazing under warming resulted in a significant reduction of Fucus biomass. Thus, we confirm the prediction that future increasing water temperatures influence marine food-web processes by altering top-down control, but we also show that specific consequences for food-web structure depend on season. Since Fucus vesiculosus is the dominant habitat-forming brown algal system in the Baltic Sea, its potential decline under global warming implicates the loss of key functions and services such as provision of nutrient storage, substrate, food, shelter and nursery grounds for a diverse community of marine invertebrates and fish in Baltic Sea coastal waters.

Holocene d18O diatom from ODP Hole 178-1098A

The causes for rising temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula during the late Holocene have been debated, particularly in light of instrumental records of warming over the past decades (Russell and McGregor, 2010, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9673-4). Suggested mechanisms range from upwelling of warm deep waters onto the continental shelf in response to variations in the westerly winds (Bentley et al., 2009, doi:10.1177/0959683608096603), to an influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on sea surface temperatures (Shevenell et al., 2011, doi:10.1038/nature09751). Here, we present a record of Holocene glacial ice discharge, derived from the oxygen isotope composition of marine diatoms from Palmer Deep along the west Antarctic Peninsula continental margin. We assess atmospheric versus oceanic influences on glacial discharge at this location, using analyses of diatom geochemistry to reconstruct atmospherically forced glacial ice discharge and diatom assemblage (Taylor and Sjunneskog, 2002, doi:10.1029/2000PA000564) ecology to investigate the oceanic environment. We show that two processes of atmospheric forcing-an increasing occurrence of La Niña events (Makou et al., 2010, doi:10.1130/G30366.1) and rising levels of summer insolation-had a stronger influence during the late Holocene than oceanic processes driven by southern westerly winds and upwelling of upper Circumpolar Deepwater. Given that the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation under global warming is uncertain (Yeh et al., 2009, doi:10.1038/nature08316), its future impacts on the climatically sensitive system of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet remain to be established.

Single beam survey data and links to sea-bottom video files off Helgoland

Kelp forests represent a major habitat type in coastal waters worldwide and their structure and distribution is predicted to change due to global warming. Despite their ecological and economical importance, there is still a lack of reliable spatial information on their abundance and distribution. In recent years, various hydroacoustic mapping techniques for sublittoral environments evolved. However, in turbid coastal waters, such as off the island of Helgoland (Germany, North Sea), the kelp vegetation is present in shallow water depths normally excluded from hydroacoustic surveys. In this study, single beam survey data consisting of the two seafloor parameters roughness and hardness were obtained with RoxAnn from water depth between 2 and 18 m. Our primary aim was to reliably detect the kelp forest habitat with different densities and distinguish it from other vegetated zones. Five habitat classes were identified using underwater-video and were applied for classification of acoustic signatures. Subsequently, spatial prediction maps were produced via two classification approaches: Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and manual classification routine (MC). LDA was able to distinguish dense kelp forest from other habitats (i.e. mixed seaweed vegetation, sand, and barren bedrock), but no variances in kelp density. In contrast, MC also provided information on medium dense kelp distribution which is characterized by intermediate roughness and hardness values evoked by reduced kelp abundances. The prediction maps reach accordance levels of 62% (LDA) and 68% (MC). The presence of vegetation (kelp and mixed seaweed vegetation) was determined with higher prediction abilities of 75% (LDA) and 76% (MC). Since the different habitat classes reveal acoustic signatures that strongly overlap, the manual classification method was more appropriate for separating different kelp forest densities and low-lying vegetation. It became evident that the occurrence of kelp in this area is not simply linked to water depth. Moreover, this study shows that the two seafloor parameters collected with RoxAnn are suitable indicators for the discrimination of different densely vegetated seafloor habitats in shallow environments.