Renewable energy in the UK countryside: policy and practice

Of the technologies currently available for producing energy from renewable sources in the British climate all except one depend on a single ingredient, namely land. Therefore other than offshore wind generation, which has been slow and expensive to establish, renewables have had to be derived almost entirely from the land, whether as sites for turbines or areas on which to grow feedstocks for biomass and biofuels. Of these, only wind turbines have been developed in any number while economic conditions have until now been unfavourable for biomass and biofuel. The UK is unlikely to meet its present targets under the Kyoto agreement, due to a mixture of limited funding and problems of policy. Peter Prag examines the present position and the potential outlook.

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is organised around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments, comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.

Dynamic analysis of house price diffusion across Asian financial centres

The aim of this paper is to explore effects of macroeconomic variables on house prices and also, the lead-lag relationships of real estate markets to examine house price diffusion across Asian financial centres. The analysis is based on the Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six Asian financial centres (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the global economic conditions play significant roles in shaping house price movements across Asian financial centres. In particular, a small open economy that heavily relies on international trade such as – Singapore and Tokyo - shows positive correlations between economy’s openness and house prices, consistent with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in international trade. However, region-specific conditions do play important roles as determinants of house prices, partly due to restrictive housing policies and demand-supply imbalances, as found in Singapore and Bangkok.

Motivational factors impacting the productivity of construction master craftsmen in Kuwait

In today's global economic conditions, improving the productivity of the construction industry is becoming more pressing than ever. Several factors impact the efficiency of construction operatives, but motivation is among the most important. Since low productivity is one of the significant challenges facing the construction industry in the State of Kuwait, the objective of this case study is to identify, explore, and rank the relative importance of the factors perceived to impact the motivational level of master craftsmen involved in primary construction trades. To achieve this objective, a structured questionnaire survey comprising 23 factors, which were shortlisted based on relevant previous research on motivation, the input of local industry experts, and numerous interviews with skilled operatives, was distributed to a large number of master craftsmen. Using the “Relative Importance Index” technique, the following prominent factors are identified: (1) payment delay; (2) rework; (3) lack of a financial incentive scheme; (4) the extent of change orders during execution; (5) incompetent supervisors; (6) delays in responding to Requests For Information (RFI); (7) overcrowding and operatives interface; (8) unrealistic scheduling and performance expectation; (9) shortage of materials on site; and (10) drawings quality level. The findings can be used to provide industry practitioners with guidance for focusing, acting upon, and controlling the critical factors influencing the performance of master craftsmen, hence, assist in achieving an efficient utilization of the workforce, and a reasonable level of competitiveness and cost effective operation.

The distribution of London residential property prices and the role of spatial lock-in

Much of mainstream economic analysis assumes that markets adjust smoothly, through prices, to changes in economic conditions. However, this is not necessarily the case for local housing markets, whose spatial structures may exhibit persistence, so that conditions may not be those most suited to the requirements of modern-day living. Persistence can arise from the existence of transaction costs. The paper tests the proposition that housing markets in Inner London exhibit a degree of path dependence, through the construction of a three-equation model, and examines the impact of variables constructed for the 19th and early 20th centuries on modern house prices. These include 19th-century social structures, slum clearance programmes and the 1908 underground network. Each is found to be significant. The tests require the construction of novel historical datasets, which are also described in the paper.

Rationality and momentum in real estate investment forecasts

This study examines the rationality and momentum in forecasts for rental, capital value and total returns for the real estate investment market in the United Kingdom. In order to investigate if forecasters are affected by the general economic conditions present at the time of forecast we incorporate into the analysis Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and the Default Spread (DS). The empirical findings show high levels of momentum in the forecasts, with highly persistent forecast errors. The results also indicate that forecasters are affected by adverse conditions. This is consistent with the finding that they tend to exhibit greater forecast error when the property market is underperforming and vice-versa.

Are happy youth also satisfied adults? An analysis of the impact of childhood factors on adult life satisfaction

This paper aims to consider whether there is a link between youth happiness levels and adult life satisfaction. Our results are unequivocal that such a link exists both because demographic and socio-economic conditions are persistent over a lifetime and also because there is a persistence in personality effects. To test this link, we estimate a model of happiness for a sample of young people. This model provides us with a range of variables measuring socio-economic effects and personality effects amongst young people. These variables are then included in the adult life satisfaction model. The model is estimated using data from the British Household Panel Survey for 1994–2008. In addition to childhood happiness levels influencing adult life satisfaction significantly, we also find that the youthful personality trait for happiness has a larger effect on adult life satisfaction than demographic and socio-economic conditions.

Which factors drive rental depreciation rates for office and industrial properties?

As new buildings are constructed in response to changes in technology or user requirements, the value of the existing stock will decline in relative terms. This is termed economic depreciation and it may be influenced by the age and quality of buildings, amount and timing of expenditure, and wider market and economic conditions. This study tests why individual assets experience different depreciation rates, applying panel regression techniques to 375 UK office and industrial assets. Results suggest that rental value depreciation rates reduce as buildings get older, while a composite measure of age and quality provides more explanation of depreciation than age alone. Furthermore, economic and local real estate market conditions are significant in explaining how depreciation rates change over time.

Impact of externalities on sustainable development: evidence from public-private partnerships in Kazakhstan and Russia

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the influence of public-private partnerships (PPPs) on social and economic conditions in Kazakhstan and Russia from a public economics perspective, namely, through the lens of a market failure and PPPs’ negative externalities. Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on the concept of a market failure and using the externalities perspective, the paper investigates whether partnerships are instrumental in solving market problems, which is illustrated by the evidence from ongoing PPP projects in Kazakhstan and Russia. Findings – Results show that citizens face expansion of monopolistic trends in the service provision and decreased availability of public services. Additionally, the government support to partnerships recreates a negative externality in the form of a higher risk premium on loan interest rates that banks use to finance PPPs. The partnerships’ impact on sustainable development often appears detrimental, as they significantly intensify the struggle between sub-national governments for increased transfers from the national budget. Practical implications – The government agencies must incorporate the appraisal of the PPP externalities and their effects on the society in the decision-making regarding the PPP formation. Originality/value – The authors suggest that, although government is interested in PPPs’ positive externalities, in reality many negative externalities may offset the positive spillover effects. As a result, the partnerships’ contributions to economic and social sustainability remain controversial. Extending the value-for-money concept to incorporate the assessment of PPP externalities might significantly enhance the partnership conceptualisation by more comprehensive and accurate assessment of PPPs’ economic and social value.

Befolkningsförändringar : Ett hinder för landsbygdens utveckling

Syftet med uppsatsen är att visa vilken effekt befolkningsförändringarna inom landsbygdsregionerna har på den regionalpolitik som förs idag. Samt vilka de samhälleliga konsekvenserna blir. För att detta syfte ska uppfyllas krävdes det tre stycken frågor. Dessa frågor är: Vilka effekter får befolkningsförändringarna på glesbygdsregioners socioekonomiska förutsättningar? Vad säger forskningen om den landsbygdspolitik som förs idag? Vilka är det stora dragen inom landsbygdspolitiken efter inträdet i EU?The aim of this thesis is to show what effects population changes in rural areas may have on the regional policy which is used today and what are the consequences. In order to fulfil these aim three questions were posed: Which effects population changes have on the socio-economic conditions in sparsely populated areas? What does the research say about today rural politic? What are the main features within rural policy after Sweden joined the EU?

Fjärrvärmedrivna vitvaror : Erfarenheter från utveckling, installationer och kostnadsberäkningar

Värmedrivna vitvaror eller HWC-maskiner som de kallas av tillverkaren värms med varmt vatten från en cirkulerande krets via en värmeväxlare inbyggd i maskinen, till skillnad från konventionella maskiner som värms med el. Denna teknik skall inte förväxlas med maskiner som är anslutna till varmvattenledningen och fylls på med varmt vatten och som därmed begränsas till disk- och tvätt. Syftet med fjärrvärmedrivna vitvaror är alltså att använda fjärrvärme, som har lägre kvalitet och pris än elenergi för uppvärmning och torkning och på så sätt spara el och utöka fjärrvärmeunderlaget. En jämförelse av koldioxidutsläpp och primärenergianvändning mellan konventionella vitvaror och fjärrvärmedrivna vitvaror visar att både koldioxidutsläpp och primärenergianvändning blir lägre för fjärrvärmedrivna vitvaror om biobränsle anses koldioxidneutralt och den el som ersätts är producerad i kolkraftverk eller gaskombikraftverk.   Denna rapport beskriver utveckling och kommersialisering av värmedrivna vitvaror (disk- och tvättmaskiner samt torktumlare och torkskåp) och hur de kan anslutas mot fjärrvärmesystem i olika systemlösningar. Dessutom har de energimässiga och ekonomiska förutsättningarna för tekniken undersökts. Erfarenheterna från fältprovning är dock mycket begränsade, eftersom de byggen där fälttesterna skulle ske försenades. Under 2013 färdigställs ett flerbostadshus med värmedrivna vitvaror i 160 lägenheter i Västerås.   De utvecklade maskinernas värmeanvändning som andel av total energianvändning vid 60 graders framledningstemperatur har uppmätts till ca 50 % för diskmaskinen, 67 % för tvättmaskinen, 80 % för torktumlaren och 93 % för torkskåpet. I det studerade flerbostadshuset av passivhusstandard uppgår lasten från värmedrivna vitvaror komfortgolvvärme och handdukstorkar till upp mot 30 % av husets totala värmeanvändning. För småhus är motsvarande siffra upp mot 20 %. Att använda fjärrvärme istället för elvärme till dessa installationer som normalt är elvärmda kan allts minska elbehovet betydligt i lågenergibebyggelse vilket också minskar både koldioxidutsläppen och primärenergianvändningen.   Ekonomiska analyser har genomförts för två olika systemkoncept (separat vitvarukrets och Västeråsmodellen) för nybyggda småhusområden och flerfamiljshus där fjärrvärme inte bara används till vitvaror utan också till handdukstorkar och komfortgolvvärme. De ekonomiska analyserna visar att Västeråsmodellen är den mest ekonomiskt intressanta systemlösningen med värmedrivna vitvaror, handdukstork och komfortgolvvärme. I flerfamiljshus kan den vara konkurrenskraftig mot de elvärmda alternativen (konventionellt system med eldrivna vitvaror, komfortgolvvärme och handdukstorkar) om prisskillnaden mellan el och fjärrvärme är större än 0,7 kr/kWh. En parameterstudie visar att kapitalkostnaden blir ganska hög jämfört med energikostnaden, vilket betyder att lång livslängd och många cykler är viktigt för att förbättra de ekonomiska förutsättningarna för värmedrivna vitvaror. För passiva småhus blir kostnaden för Västeråsmodellen med värmedrivna vitvaror, handdukstork och komfortgolvvärme likvärdig med de elvärmda alternativen vid energiprisskillnader på 0,7 kr/kWh inklusive moms, medan det krävs prisskillnader på 0,9 kr/kWh inklusive moms för normalisolerade småhusområden.   Sammanfattningsvis kan sägas att i kommuner med ett konkurrenskraftigt fjärrvärmepris finns det viss lönsamhet för hela konceptet enligt Västeråsmodellen med värmedrivna vitvaror, komfortgolvvärme, och handdukstorkar. Om man däremot ser på konkurrensen för enskilda vitvaror är det främst torktumlaren som är konkurrenskraftig i bostäder. Målpriset på 1000 kr extra för värmedrift har inte kunnat uppnås inom projektet för diskmaskiner och tvättmaskiner. Det krävs lägre priser och låga anslutningskostnader för att räkna hem diskmaskinen och tvättmaskinen som enskilda komponenter.   Värmedrivna tvättmaskiner och torktumlare är konkurrenskraftiga i flerfamiljstvättstugor. Speciellt i de fall där beläggningen är god och flera maskiner delar på anslutningskostnaden till fjärrvärmecentralen kan värmedrift bli riktigt lönsam. Torkskåpens konkurrenskraft har inte kunnat utvärderas, då priset ännu inte fastställts. Att använda VVC-systemet för värmedistribution till värmedrivna vitvaror kan vara mycket intressant, men det kräver att legionellaproblematiken kan lösas. I nuläget finns ingen lösning som uppfyller formuleringarna i boverkets byggregler. Ett annat distributionssätt som kan vara intressant, men som inte undersökts i studien är att använda VVC för varmvattendistribution och en gemensam radiator- och vitvarukrets med konstant framledningstemperatur. Den aktör som förväntas ha störst ekonomiskt intresse av att tekniken implementeras är sannolikt fjärrvärmebolagen som får sälja mer värme och det ligger därmed främst på deras ansvar att marknadsföra tekniken i mötet med sina kunder.

A Call to Arms

This month I’m using my column to issue a call to arms. No, it isn’t a call to arms for war, though it is going to be battle. It is a call to professional librarians who are interested in their jobs lasting more than a few more years. That sounds a bit hysterical but I don’t mean for it to. Yet is it hyperbolic? I don’t think so. We need to rethink, recast, redefine, and refresh our professional métier. I think the last twenty-four months make it imperative that we do so now

Public policies impacts on Latin American labor structures, preparing for integration

One of the Main Subjects to Be Discussed, in Order to Adjust Latin American Economies to a Regional Integration Network, as Imposed By Mercosul or Other Economic Common Markets, is Related to the Employment and Other Labor Markets Public Policies. the Question to Be Posed Is: Having in Mind the Characteristics of Different Labor Markets and Labor Forces, What are the Impacts of Governmental Measures Presented in the Diverse Economic Conditions of Those Countries. Having in Mind These Impacts, This Paper Aims to Examine the Requisites to Adjust the Labor Structure Standards of Latin American Countries and What Would Be the Reforms to Be Performed By These Countries in Order to Prepare These Markets and Labor Forces to Adapt to Regional Integration Networks Represented By Mercosul, Alca or Other Common Markets. There are Evaluated the Impacts of the Globalization Process, Economic Stabilization and Reform Policies Undertaken By Some Selected Latin American Countries Since the Eighties on the Labor Structure Standards, Considering the Specific Adjustment Measures to Cope With the Negative Effects of These Policies. Next, Some Cases of Europe Union (Eu) Countries Measures to Prepare to Integration is Examined, in Order to Provide Some Elements to Better Understand the Possibilities to Handle With the Extensive Changes in External Conditions. in Sequence Some Statistical Indicatives of the Impacts of These Measures on the Occupational Structuring are Analyzed For a Group of Selected Latin American and Eu Countries.

O regime fiscal e investimento público no Brasil

O presente estudo analisa a sustentabilidade intertemporal do atual regime fiscal sob o prisma do investimento público na economia brasileira. A idéia básica é que, devido às condições macroeconômicas prevalecentes, o superávit primário do setor público consolidado representa a variável central de sustentação do equilíbrio fiscal. Sendo a capacidade de geração e manutenção de superávits primários limitada pelas despesas incomprimíveis, o governo federal pratica uma política fiscal que, apesar de seus resultados fiscais bastante positivos, penaliza excessivamente o investimento público. O presente estudo tem como objetivo comparar a natureza do ajuste fiscal realizado no segundo mandato de FHC e nos dois primeiros anos do governo Lula, (i) destacando a trajetória e a composição do gasto e receitas pública nesses dois períodos e (ii) evidenciando a possibilidade 'perdida' por ambos os governos em promover um firme aumento do investimento público, sem aumentar a carga tributária.

Inflação no Brasil e preços internacionais

No início dos anos 90, começou a ser observada uma queda e uma maior estabilização da inflação mundial, principalmente em economias desenvolvidas. Esse fenômeno também foi observado em economias em desenvolvimento como a brasileira, protagonistas de momentos de hiperinflação em um passado recente. Com a queda substancial da inflação mundial, alguns economistas sugerem que se incorporem os efeitos dos fatores globais na dinâmica da inflação doméstica. Este presente estudo tem por objetivo verificar se fatores externos têm reduzido a sensibilidade dos preços domésticos às condições econômicas exclusivamente domésticas. É feita uma análise do papel dos preços internacionais na dinâmica da taxa de inflação no Brasil através de estudos da dinâmica da curva de Phillips, a partir da metodologia VAR. Através dos resultados obtidos, concluiu-se que apesar de boa parte da estabilidade da inflação ser conseqüência da credibilidade da política monetária adotada pelo Banco Central, da maneira como ele consegue ancorar essas expectativas e da adoção de boas práticas monetárias e fiscais, não se pode negar o importante papel dos fatores globais na dinâmica da inflação brasileira.