No news in business cycles

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

Characterization of larval moulting cycles in Maja brachydactyla (Brachyura, Majidae) reared in the laboratory

The moulting cycles of all larval instars (zoea I, zoea II, and megalopa) of the spider crab Maja brachydactyla Balss 1922 were studied in laboratory rearing experiments. Morphological changes in the epidermis and cuticle were photographically documented in daily intervals and assigned to successive stages of the moulting cycle (based on Drach's classification system). Our moult-stage characterizations are based on microscopical examination of integumental modifications mainly in the telson, using epidermal condensation, the degree of epidermal retraction (apolysis), and morphogenesis (mainly setagenesis) as criteria. In the zoea II and megalopa, the formation of new setae was also observed in larval appendages including the antenna, maxillule, maxilla, second maxilliped, pleopods, and uropods. As principal stages within the zoea I moulting cycle, we describe postmoult (Drach's stages A–B combined), intermoult (C), and premoult (D), the latter with three substages (D0, D1, and D2). In the zoea II and megalopa, D0 and D1 had to be combined, because morphogenesis (the main characteristic of D1) was unclear in the telson and did not occur synchronically in different appendices. The knowledge of the course and time scale of successive moult-cycle events can be used as a tool for the evaluation of the developmental state within individual larval instars, providing a morphological reference system for physiological and biochemical studies related to crab aquaculture.

The nature of the Cr-C bond: direct estimation of aromaticity in Fischer carbenes

Report for the scientific sojourn at the the Philipps-Universität Marburg, Germany, from september to december 2007. For the first, we employed the Energy-Decomposition Analysis (EDA) to investigate aromaticity on Fischer carbenes as it is related through all the reaction mechanisms studied in my PhD thesis. This powerful tool, compared with other well-known aromaticity indices in the literature like NICS, is useful not only for quantitative results but also to measure the degree of conjugation or hyperconjugation in molecules. Our results showed for the annelated benzenoid systems studied here, that electron density is more concentrated on the outer rings than in the central one. The strain-induced bond localization plays a major role as a driven force to keep the more substituted ring as the less aromatic. The discussion presented in this work was contrasted at different levels of theory to calibrate the method and ensure the consistency of our results. We think these conclusions can also be extended to arene chemistry for explaining aromaticity and regioselectivity reactions found in those systems.In the second work, we have employed the Turbomole program package and density-functionals of the best performance in the state of art, to explore reaction mechanisms in the noble gas chemistry. Particularly, we were interested in compounds of the form H--Ng--Ng--F (where Ng (Noble Gas) = Ar, Kr and Xe) and we investigated the relative stability of these species. Our quantum chemical calculations predict that the dixenon compound HXeXeF has an activation barrier for decomposition of 11 kcal/mol which should be large enough to identify the molecule in a low-temperature matrix. The other noble gases present lower activation barriers and therefore are more labile and difficult to be observable systems experimentally.

Cycles de vie d'une femme et tabac [The health consequences of smoking for women at different stages of their life].

Women who smoke underestimate the risks of smoking on their health, especially the impact of the anti-estrogenic and toxic effects of tobacco at the different stages of their life. The risk of female infertility related to tobacco is now well-proven, as is the risk of arterial and venous thrombotic event when tobacco is associated with oral contraception. Many foetal and maternal pathologies are linked to maternal smoking. Regarding post-menopausal women, smoking is associated with an increased osteoporotic and cardio-vascular risk. Doctors are at the first line to advise women and propose them help and assistance in their quit smoking process in a way adapted to their situation.

Electrochemically promoted carbon-halide bond cleavage in 4-nitrobenzyl halides

This manuscript reports the study of the carbon-halide bond cleavage in 4-nitrobenzyl halides, taking special attention to the iodide and fluoride derivatives. The electrochemical reduction mechanism has been disclosed for both compounds by terms of cyclic voltammetry and controlled potential electrolysis. In the case of 4-nitrobenzyl iodide, a first one electron irreversible wave leads to the corresponding 4-nitrobenzyl radical and iodide. However, in the case of 4-nitrobenzyl fluoride, a first one-electron reversible wave appears at –1.02 vs. SCE followed by one electron irreversible wave. In this second electron transfer process, the cleavage of the C-F bond is taking place, so the bond cleavage reaction occurs at the dianion level. To disclose and understand the electrochemical reduction mechanisms that allows to obtain important thermodynamic and kinetic data that would help in the understanding of C-X bond cleavage. This type of bond dissociation reactions are involved in the metabolism pathways of the human body.

The identification of two Trypanosoma cruzi I genotypes from domestic and sylvatic transmission cycles in Colombia based on a single polymerase chain reaction amplification of the spliced-leader intergenic region

A single polymerase chain reaction (PCR) reaction targeting the spliced-leader intergenic region of Trypanosoma cruzi I was standardised by amplifying a 231 bp fragment in domestic (TcIDOM) strains or clones and 450 and 550 bp fragments in sylvatic strains or clones. This reaction was validated using 44 blind coded samples and 184 non-coded T. cruzi I clones isolated from sylvatic triatomines and the correspondence between the amplified fragments and their domestic or sylvatic origin was determined. Six of the nine strains isolated from acute cases suspected of oral infection had the sylvatic T. cruzi I profile. These results confirmed that the sylvatic T. cruzi I genotype is linked to cases of oral Chagas disease in Colombia. We therefore propose the use of this novel PCR reaction in strains or clones previously characterised as T. cruziI to distinguish TcIDOMfrom sylvatic genotypes in studies of transmission dynamics, including the verification of population selection within hosts or detection of the frequency of mixed infections by both T. cruzi I genotypes in Colombia.

Turnover and accumulation of genetic diversity across large time-scale cycles of isolation and connection of populations.

Major climatic and geological events but also population history (secondary contacts) have generated cycles of population isolation and connection of long and short periods. Recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that fast evolutionary processes might be triggered by such events, as commonly illustrated in ecology by the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes (isolation and reconnection of lakes and watersheds) and in epidemiology by the fast adaptation of the influenza virus (isolation and reconnection in hosts). We test whether cyclic population isolation and connection provide the raw material (standing genetic variation) for species evolution and diversification. Our analytical results demonstrate that population isolation and connection can provide, to populations, a high excess of genetic diversity compared with what is expected at equilibrium. This excess is either cyclic (high allele turnover) or cumulates with time depending on the duration of the isolation and the connection periods and the mutation rate. We show that diversification rates of animal clades are associated with specific periods of climatic cycles in the Quaternary. We finally discuss the importance of our results for macroevolutionary patterns and for the inference of population history from genomic data.

Pooling of dentin microtensile bond strength data improves clinical correlation.

Purpose: To evaluate whether the correlation between in vitro bond strength data and estimated clinical retention rates of cervical restorations after two years depends on pooled data obtained from multicenter studies or single-test data. Materials and Methods: Pooled mean data for six dentin adhesive systems (Adper Prompt L-Pop, Clearfil SE, OptiBond FL, Prime & Bond NT, Single Bond, and Scotchbond Multipurpose) and four laboratory methods (macroshear, microshear, macrotensile and microtensile bond strength test) (Scherrer et al, 2010) were correlated to estimated pooled two-year retention rates of Class V restorations using the same adhesive systems. For bond strength data from a single test institute, the literature search in SCOPUS revealed one study that tested all six adhesive systems (microtensile) and two that tested five of the six systems (microtensile, macroshear). The correlation was determined with a database designed to perform a meta-analysis on the clinical performance of cervical restorations (Heintze et al, 2010). The clinical data were pooled and adjusted in a linear mixed model, taking the study effect, dentin preparation, type of isolation and bevelling of enamel into account. A regression analysis was carried out to evaluate the correlation between clinical and laboratory findings. Results: The results of the regression analysis for the pooled data revealed that only the macrotensile (adjusted R2 = 0.86) and microtensile tests (adjusted R2 = 0.64), but not the shear and the microshear tests, correlated well with the clinical findings. As regards the data from a single-test institute, the correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Macrotensile and microtensile bond strength tests showed an adequate correlation with the retention rate of cervical restorations after two years. Bond strength tests should be carried out by different operators and/or research institutes to determine the reliability and technique sensitivity of the material under investigation.

Calorimetry of dehydrogenation and dangling-bond recombination in several hydrogenated amorphous silicon materials

Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was used to study the dehydrogenation processes that take place in three hydrogenated amorphous silicon materials: nanoparticles, polymorphous silicon, and conventional device-quality amorphous silicon. Comparison of DSC thermograms with evolved gas analysis (EGA) has led to the identification of four dehydrogenation processes arising from polymeric chains (A), SiH groups at the surfaces of internal voids (A'), SiH groups at interfaces (B), and in the bulk (C). All of them are slightly exothermic with enthalpies below 50 meV/H atoms , indicating that, after dissociation of any SiH group, most dangling bonds recombine. The kinetics of the three low-temperature processes [with DSC peak temperatures at around 320 (A),360 (A'), and 430°C (B)] exhibit a kinetic-compensation effect characterized by a linea relationship between the activation entropy and enthalpy, which constitutes their signature. Their Si-H bond-dissociation energies have been determined to be E (Si-H)0=3.14 (A), 3.19 (A'), and 3.28 eV (B). In these cases it was possible to extract the formation energy E(DB) of the dangling bonds that recombine after Si-H bond breaking [0.97 (A), 1.05 (A'), and 1.12 (B)]. It is concluded that E(DB) increases with the degree of confinement and that E(DB)>1.10 eV for the isolated dangling bond in the bulk. After Si-H dissociation and for the low-temperature processes, hydrogen is transported in molecular form and a low relaxation of the silicon network is promoted. This is in contrast to the high-temperature process for which the diffusion of H in atomic form induces a substantial lattice relaxation that, for the conventional amorphous sample, releases energy of around 600 meV per H atom. It is argued that the density of sites in the Si network for H trapping diminishes during atomic diffusion

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