Tamanho de amostra e estimativa de custo em levantamento epidemiológico de cárie dentária

This study aimed to analyze how the prevalence and the distribution of dental caries influence the sample size in epidemiological surveys, and how much are the costs. Secondary data of oral health surveys in 12-year-old schoolchildren from Bauru in 1976, 1984, 1990, 1994, and 2001, and from Piracicaba in 2001 and 2005 were studied. Sample sizes were estimated taking into account the mean DMFT and standard deviation of each survey, establishing sampling errors of 1%, 2%, 5%, and 10%. Costs were estimated considering permanent material, consumption material and human resources. The sample size in both towns needed to be increased, ranging from 119 in 1976 to 1,118 in 2001 in Bauru, and from 954 in 2001 to 1,252 in 2005 in Piracicaba, when a sampling error of 10% was considered. The cost of dental caries surveys was verified considering different sampling errors. This cost depends on how acceptable is the margin of difference between the true mean and the one found in the survey. In conclusion, the reduction in the prevalence of dental caries has determined the need for increase in sample size and in costs for conducting the surveys.

Haemonchus contortus: A multiple-resistant Brazilian isolate and the costs for its characterization and maintenance for research use

The aim of this work was to determine the resistance level of Haemonchus contortus isolated from the Santa Inês flock of the Embrapa (Brazilian government's Agricultural Research Company), Southeast Livestock Unit (CPPSE), as well as to determine costs of characterizing and maintaining this isolate in host donors. Forty-two male Santa Inês lambs were experimentally infected with 4000 H. contortus infective larvae of the field isolate of CPPSE, called Embrapa2010, and divided into six treatment groups, which received triclorfon, albendazol plus cobalt sulfate, ivermectin, moxidectin, closantel and levamisole phosphate, as well as a negative control group (water). Egg per gram (EPG) counts were performed at 0, 3, 7, 10 and 14. days post treatment when the animals were slaughtered for parasite count. The data were analyzed using the RESO statistical program, considering anthelmintic resistance under 95% of efficacy. EPG and worm count presented a linear and significant relation with 94% determination coefficient. The susceptibility results obtained by RESO through both criteria (EPG and worm count) were equal, except for closantel, showing that the isolate Embrapa2010 is resistant to benzimidazoles, macrocyclic lactones and imidazothiazoles. The need of a control group did not appear to be essential since the result for susceptibility in the analyses with or without this group was the same. Suppression in egg production after treatment did not occur in the ivermectin and moxidectin groups. In the control group, the establishment percentage was just 12.5 because of the low number of third-stage larvae, resistance (innate and infection immunity) of the animals studied plus good nutrition. Drug classes presented similar efficacy between adults and immature stages. The costs for isolate characterization were calculated for 42 animals during 60. days. The total cost based on local market rates was approximately US$ 8000. The precise identification of Brazilian isolates and their establishment in host donors would be useful for laboratorial anthelmintic resistance diagnoses through in vitro tests, which has an annual cost of approximately US$ 2500 for maintenance in host donors. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Sistemas de criação para o Acará-bandeira Pterophyllum scalare

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação dos impactos econômicos do potencial de desenvolvimento da mitilicultura no município de Ubatuba-SP

Pós-graduação em Aquicultura - FCAV

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Análise da sustentabilidade econômica e social na produção extensiva de ostras em uma região subtropical

Pós-graduação em Aquicultura - FCAV

Ciclo combinado com gaseificação integrada de biomassa – análise de penalidade exergética de emissão de CO2

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Comparação de modelos de custo dos produtos gerados em uma central de cogeração

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desenvolvimento e viabilidade econômica de mudas de espécies florestais nativas com o uso de fertirrigação em substratos a base de biossólido compostado

Pós-graduação em Ciência Florestal - FCA

Análise de novos modelos matemáticos para o problema de planejamento da expansão de sistemas de transmissão

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Metodologia para ensaio de sistemas de direcionamento via satélite em percursos retos e curvos

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Determinação de parâmetros de transferência de massa do processo de extração supercrítica

A extração com fluido supercrítico de materiais líquidos e sólidos despertou o interesse para aplicações industriais nas últimas décadas, mais particularmente sob o conceito de química verde e biorrefinarias, portanto é fundamental que se faça uma modelagem desse processo a fim de otimizar as condições operacionais e simular o processo. O objetivo geral deste trabalho consiste na determinação de parâmetros de transferência de massa do processo de extração supercrítica de matriz sólida, empregando o dióxido de carbono como solvente, a partir de dados cinéticos de extração e na avaliação sistemática de cinco modelos matemáticos para descrever as cinéticas de extração dos óleos da polpa e da casca do buriti, do óleo de açaí de da oleoresina de cúrcuma, medidas no Laboratório de Extração Supercrítica, da Faculdade de Engenharia Química (UFPA), a fim de contribuir para o estudo de ampliação de escala e análise de custo de produção. Foram avaliados os modelos de Tan e Liou, Goto et al. (1993), Martinez et al. (2003), Esquível et al. (1999), e Sovová (1994). A modelagem das cinéticas de extração foi realizada utilizando aplicativos computacionais desenvolvidos e validados neste trabalho a partir de diferentes dados experimentais publicados na literatura. Diante de 40 cinéticas medidas com diferentes equipamentos de extração, configurações de leito, tipos de matérias primas, preparo dos materiais, pressão e temperatura e outros parâmetros de processo (com destaque ao rendimento global e a vazão de solvente), foi construído um panorama dos resultados acerca da capacidade dos modelos de transferência de massa em descrever as mais diferentes curvas globais de extração. De forma geral, os modelos de Goto et al. (1993) e Sovová (1994) apresentaram as melhores previsões aos dados experimentais das matérias primas tratadas neste trabalho com menores valores de quadrado, erros relativo, faixa de erro e desvios padrão e valores de R² próximos da unidade.