Variations in the Summer Monsoon Rainbands Across Eastern China over the Past 300 Years

Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX2-YW-315-2]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40701021, 40625002]

Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000

Change in thermal conditions can substantially affect crop growth, cropping systems, agricultural production and land use. In the present study, we used annual accumulated temperatures > 10 degrees C (AAT10) as an indicator to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in thermal conditions across China from the late 1980s to 2000, with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 km. We also investigated the effects of the spatio-temporal changes on cultivated land use and cropping systems. We found that AAT10 has increased on a national scale since the late 1980s, Particularly, 3.16 x 10(5) km(2) of land moved from the spring wheat zone (AAT10: 1600 to 3400 degrees C) to the winter wheat zone (AAT10: 3400 to 4500 degrees C). Changes in thermal conditions had large influences on cultivated land area and cropping systems. The areas of cultivated land have increased in regions with increasing AAT10, and the cropping rotation index has increased since the late 1980s. Single cropping was replaced by 3 crops in 2 years in many regions, and areas of winter wheat cultivation were shifted northward in some areas, such as in the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and in western Liaoning and Jilin Provinces.

Study of remote sensing based parameter uncertainty in Production Efficiency Models

The remote sensing based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs), springs from the concept of "Light Use Efficiency" and has been applied more and more in estimating terrestrial Net Primary Productivity (NPP) regionally and globally. However, global NPP estimates vary greatly among different models in different data sources and handling methods. Because direct observation or measurement of NPP is unavailable at global scale, the precision and reliability of the models cannot be guaranteed. Though, there are ways to improve the accuracy of the models from input parameters. In this study, five remote sensing based PEMs have been compared: CASA, GLO-PEM, TURC, SDBM and VPM. We divided input parameters into three categories, and analyzed the uncertainty of (1) vegetation distribution, (2) fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy (fPAR) and (3) light use efficiency (e). Ground measurements of Hulunbeier typical grassland and meteorology measurements were introduced for accuracy evaluation. Results show that a real-time, more accurate vegetation distribution could significantly affect the accuracy of the models, since it's applied directly or indirectly in all models and affects other parameters simultaneously. Higher spatial and spectral resolution remote sensing data may reduce uncertainty of fPAR up to 51.3%, which is essential to improve model accuracy.

The characteristics of fluid potential in mud diapirs associated with gas hydrates in the Okinawa Trough

Many mud diapirs have been identified in the southern Okinawa Trough from a seismic survey using R/V KEXUE I in 2001. The movement and accumulation of free gas related to mud diapirs are discussed in detail by an analysis of fluid potential which is based upon velocity data. It can be found that free gas moves from the higher fluid potential strata to the lower ones and the gas hydrate comes into being during free gas movement meeting the proper criteria of temperature and pressure. In fact, gas hydrates have been found in the upper layers above the mud diapirs and in host rocks exhibiting other geophysical characteristics. As the result of the formation of the gas hydrate, the free gas bearing strata are enclosed by the gas hydrate bearing strata. Due to the high pressure anomalies of the free gas bearing strata the fluid potential increases noticeably. It can then be concluded that the high fluid potential anomaly on the low fluid potential background may be caused by the presence of the free gas below the gas hydrate bearing strata.

Temperature phase tilt in unstable baroclinic waves

A general property on the phase relation in linear baroclinic instability is proved analytically: in a potential vorticity homogenization regime, the complex geometry of the quasigeostrophic equations determines that the phase lines of temperature and pressure disturbances tilt with height in opposite directions.

Dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary in summer

Field measurements of salinity, wind and river discharge and numerical simulations of hydrodynamics from 1978 to 1984 are used to investigate the dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China during summer. The studies have shown that there are four major horizontal buoyant plume types in summer: Offshore Bulge Spreading (Type I), West Alongshore Spreading (Type II), East Offshore Spreading (Type III), and Symmetrical Alongshore Spreading (Type IV). River mouth conditions, winds and ambient coastal currents have inter-influences to the transport processes of the buoyant plume. It is found that all of the four types are surface-advected plumes by analysing the vertical characteristic of the plumes, and the monthly variations of the river discharge affect the plume size dominantly. The correlation coefficient between the PRE plume size and the river discharge reaches 0.85 during the high river discharge season. A wind strength index has been introduced to examine the wind effect. It is confirmed that winds play a significant role in forming the plume morphology. The alongshore wind stress and the coastal currents determine the alongshore plume spreading. The impact of the ambient currents such as Dongsha Current and South China Sea (SCS) Warm Current on the plume off the shelf has also assessed. The present study has demonstrated that both the river discharge and wind conditions affect the plume evolution.

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies in China

This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.

An analysis of the recent severe storm surge disaster events in China

The economic loss caused by the storm surge disasters is much higher than that caused by any other marine disaster in China, the loss from the severe storm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics show that there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeast coast of China since 1990, three of which, occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused the most severe damage. The direct economic losses due to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan (RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD, respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5 billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year during the 1989-1991 period. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the damage caused by the three events and presents an overview of progress of precautions against storm surge disaster in China. The suggested counter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe storm surge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raise the whole society awareness of precaution against severe storm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan for building sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the available warning and disaster relief command system; (4) Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigate the loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event.