Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Estudos da eletrodeposição de metais em regime de subtensão

This work reviews recent studies of underpotential deposition (UPD) of several metals on Pt and Au substrates performed in the Grupo de Materiais Eletroquímicos e Métodos Eletroanalíticos (IQSC -- USP, São Carlos). The UPD Cu, Cd and Pb on Pt were analysed in terms of their influence in the oxygen evolution reaction. Partial blockage of surface active sites, promoted by Pb ad-atoms, resulted in a change from water to hydrogen peroxide as the final product. The Ag UPD on Pt and Au substrates was also discussed in this work. A detailed model of charge calculation for Ag monolayer was developed and confirmed by the rotating ring-disk data. The partial charge transfer in UPD studies was analysed in the Cd/Pt and Cd/Au systems and a value of 0.5 was found for the adsorption electrovalence of Cd ad-ions. The Sn/Pt UPD systems were studied from the point of view of the valences of metallic ions in solution. The deposition from Sn(IV) generates a full monolayer with a maximum occupation of approximately 40% of the surface active sites (340 µC cm-2) plus 105 µC cm-2 of Hads (half monolayer). Changing the metallic ion for Sn(II), it was possible to deposit a full monolayer (210 µC cm-2) without any detectable Hads. Finally, the effect of anions was discussed in the Zn/Pt and Zn/Au systems. Here, the hydrogen evolution reaction (her) and the hydrogen adsorption/desorption were used in order to investigate the maximum coverage of the surface with Zn ad-atoms. The full monolayer, characterised by the complete absence of Hads, was achieved only in 0.5 M HF solutions.

Understanding Flood Regime Changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.

Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal

We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978-2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical. Economic booms have typically been used to relax tax pressure, especially during elections. One-off measures have been preferred over structural ones to contain the deficit during economic crises. The EU fiscal rules prompted temporary consolidation, but did not permanently change the budgeting process.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Efeito do meio de cultura e do regime de luz na esporulação de Cercospora zeae-maydis

Algumas espécies fúngicas não esporulam satisfatoriamente em meio de cultura, a exemplo de Cercospora zeae-maydis, agente causal da cercosporiose do milho. A esporulação deste patógeno foi avaliada em sete meios de cultura agarizados (V8, suco de tomate temperado, água de coco, aveia, BDA, extrato de folha de milho e extrato de folha de milho + CaCO3) sob dois regimes luminosos (fotoperíodo de 12 horas e seqüencial - 6 dias claro/3 dias escuro). O ensaio foi conduzido em esquema fatorial 7 x 2, com os tratamentos dispostos em delineamento inteiramente casualizado com cinco repetições. A parcela experimental compreendeu uma placa de petri contendo 20 mL de meio de cultura sobre o qual foram colocados 200 mL de uma suspensão de 8 x 10(4) esporos/mL. As culturas foram posteriormente incubadas a 27ºC durante nove dias. Os meios V8 e suco de tomate temperado (STT) sob regime de fotoperíodo 12h/12h, foram aqueles que apresentaram melhor indução de esporulação, resultando na produção de 22,4 x 10(4) conídios/ mL e 28,62 x 10(4) conídios/mL, respectivamente.

Adequacy in Finnish Translations of Anglo-American Literature

Tutkielma käsittelee nykypäivän angloamerikkalaisen kaunokirjallisuuden suomentamista. Tutkimuksessa pyritään vahvistamaan tai kumoamaan hypoteesi, jonka mukaan angloamerikkalaisen kirjallisuuden suomentamistapa on tällä hetkellä pikemmin adekvaattinen (adequate) kuin hyväksyttävä (acceptable). Adekvaattisessa käännöksessä säilytetään lähdetekstin vierautta. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kahdessa Neil Gaimanin romaanissa esiintyvistä kulttuurisidonnaisista aineksista (culture-specific items, CSIs) ja niiden käännöksistä. Tutkimus perustuu pääasiassa Itamar Even-Zoharin polysysteemiteoriaan ja Gideon Touryn teoriaan kääntämiseen vaikuttavista normeista. Teorioiden avulla esitetään, että kirjallisuuden polysysteemi vaikuttaa yksittäisiin käännösvalintoihin, kun suomennetaan kaunokirjallisuudessa esiintyviä kulttuurisidonnaisia aineksia. Kulttuurisidonnaiset ainekset ovat kulttuuriin liittyviä ilmauksia, jotka viittaavat kielenulkoiseen todellisuuteen. Tutkimuksen osana tarkastellaan lyhyesti myös kirjallisuutta, suomentamista sekä suomentamisen historiaa Suomessa. Empiirisessä osuudessa aineiston tutkimiseen käytetään Javier Franco Aixelán kehittämää käännöstaktiikoiden luokitusta. Kulttuurisidonnaisten ainesten suomennoksista analysoidaan eri käännöstaktiikoiden määrät, jolloin saadaan selville niiden yleisyys käännöksissä. Tutkimuksen tulokset viittaavat siihen, että tutkimuskohteena olevien romaanien kulttuurisidonnaiset ainekset on suomennettu melko adekvaattisesti. Tutkimustulos on vain suuntaa-antava, mutta tukee silti hypoteesia angloamerikkalaisen kaunokirjallisuuden suomennosten adekvaattisuudesta.

Efeitos de meio de cultura, fontes de carbono e nitrogênio, pH e regime luminoso no crescimento de Mycosphaerella musicola

Este trabalho objetivou o estabelecimento de condições favoráveis ao crescimento micelial de M. musicola in vitro, pela avaliação em quatro experimentos, da influência de diferentes meios de cultura (BDA, BDA/IFB, V8, V8/IFB, V8/CaCO3 e V8/CaCO3/IFB); combinações de fontes de carbono (dextrose, maltose, sacarose e xilose) e nitrogênio (peptona, glicina, nitrato de potássio e de sódio); valores de pH (6,8; 6,4; 5,7 e 4,9) e regimes luminosos (escuro contínuo, alternância luminosa e claro contínuo). Observou-se um maior crescimento de M. musicola quando cultivado nos meios de cultura BDA/IFB, V8/IFB e BDA. As fontes de carbono sacarose, maltose e dextrose quando combinadas com a peptona como fonte de nitrogênio, promoveram um maior crescimento micelial de M. musicola. O meio de cultura BDA/IFB, com o valor final de pH ajustado para 5,7, em regime de escuro contínuo, apresentou-se como o melhor para o crescimento de M. musicola.

Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Formação Médica na UFSB: II. O Desafio da Profissionalização no Regime de Ciclos

Este é o segundo artigo de uma série que apresenta estrutura curricular e modelo pedagógico do curso de Medicina em implantação na Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia (UFSB), que adota um regime de dois ciclos de formação, integralmente realizado nos contextos de prática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Para isso, apresentam-se resumidamente perfil e competências dos egressos, introduzindo a estrutura curricular do segundo ciclo do curso e destacando sua aderência ao marco legal vigente. Em seguida, destacam-se os blocos temáticos do eixo de formação técnico-científica, com organização de conteúdos em ciclos de vida, visando superar o modelo que fragmenta o sujeito humano em sistemas, órgãos e patologias. Aborda-se ainda o eixo de práticas, composto por estágios supervisionados em todos os níveis de atenção da rede SUS, destacando a Atenção Primária em Saúde, que perpassa todo o segundo ciclo de formação. Por último, discutem-se impacto e efeitos dessa reestruturação da educação superior no sentido da convergência entre modelos formativos de profissionais de saúde e necessidades de saúde da população.

Análise de danos de colheita de madeira em floresta tropical úmida sob regime de manejo florestal sustentado na Amazônia ocidental

Procurou-se identificar, qualificar e quantificar a intensidade de danos causados pela colheita florestal em uma área com floresta primária explorada (FPE), tendo com testemunha uma área com floresta primária não-explorada (FPNE), com 202 e 204 ha, respectivamente. Na FPNE, foram avaliados os danos decorrentes de causas naturais. As áreas de FPE e de FPNE localizam-se no município de Manicoré, Estado do Amazonas. Realizou-se o inventário utilizando o método de amostragem aleatória, em ambas as áreas. As amostragens foram executadas em dois níveis de inclusão de DAP. No nível I foram instaladas cinco parcelas de 100 x 100 m (1 ha), onde foram inventariadas todas as árvores com DAP > ou = 15 cm. No nível II, as parcelas do nível I foram divididas sistematicamente em subparcelas de 10 x 10 m (100 m²), tendo sido amostradas aleatoriamente cinco subparcelas por parcela do nível I, totalizando 2.500 m², onde foram inventariados todos os indivíduos (varejões) com 5,0 <= DAP < 15 cm. As análises dos danos decorrentes de causas naturais indicaram que na FPNE apenas 10% da vegetação adulta remanescente apresentou danos. Na FPE, os danos causados pelas operações de colheita florestal, incluindo-se o corte e o arraste de toras, totalizaram 29%. As modificações na estrutura diamétrica da FPE foram maiores nas maiores classes de DAP, em que, em geral, foram constatadas reduções de 27, 29 e 30%, respectivamente, no número de árvores (n/ha), na área basal (m²/ha) e no volume (m³/ha). Essa redução de estoque foi considerada normal, uma vez que a amostragem foi realizada imediatamente após a execução das operações de colheita florestal.

Alteração estrutural de uma área de cerrado explorada sob regime de manejo no município de João Pinheiro-Minas Gerais-Brasil

Os planos de manejo em execução na atualidade são, em sua maioria, uma exploração florestal realizada com o título de plano de manejo. Para subsidiar a diferenciação dessas duas modalidades de exploração, foi realizado o presente trabalho, que teve como objetivo verificar a sustentabilidade do plano de manejo de cerrado executado na fazenda Santa Cecília, no município de João Pinheiro, estado de Minas Gerais, por meio da análise estrutural da vegetação, identificando alguns de seus impactos, em relação a uma área de cerrado não explorada. A avaliação foi realizada por meio de parcelas, que foram lançadas na área explorada em 1994/95 e na área ainda não-explorada. Os resultados da análise da estrutura horizontal demonstraram que houve diferença significativa na Densidade Absoluta e Volume Total e na Dominância Absoluta entre as áreas estudadas. Os resultados da estrutura diamétrica demonstraram diferença significativa para a distribuição da densidade e entre a distribuição da área basal e do volume total. Esses resultados indicaram que a exploração foi realizada além dos limites que permitissem a recuperação da vegetação para um novo corte, ao final do ciclo de corte.

Regime de luz em uma floresta estacional semidecídua sob manejo, em Pirenópolis, Goiás

Esta pesquisa foi realizada em um fragmento de floresta estacional semidecídua, localizada em Pirenópolis, Goiás, e investigou as alterações no regime de luz, medida pela densidade de fluxo de fótons, associadas a intervenções silviculturais que visaram, sobretudo, aumentar o crescimento de espécies arbóreas, sem permitir a invasão por espécies oportunistas que poderiam influenciar negativamente a dinâmica da regeneração natural. O delineamento foi em blocos casualizados, em esquema fatorial, testando as diferenças entre tratamentos silviculturais, estações climáticas e alturas de medida no sub-bosque (1,30 m e ao nível do solo). Foram testadas duas intensidades de corte seletivo de indivíduos arbóreos e de cipós na floresta. Os tratamentos foram suficientes para alterar o regime de luz, tanto na estação seca como na estação chuvosa, em acordo com a hipótese testada. O sombreamento na área controle foi de 97% na estação chuvosa e de 86% na estação seca, apresentando diferenças significativas com o sombreamento associado aos tratamentos silviculturais, que variaram de 93% a 94% na chuva e de 77% a 80% na seca. Esse estudo pode auxiliar na validação deste sistema de manejo florestal proposto para as florestas estacionais semidecíduas no Brasil Central, devendo ser associado aos estudos populacionais e de comunidade, preservando os fragmentos florestais encontrados na região e gerando benefícios ambientais e renda extra para a população rural.

Efeitos de cenários de uso do solo sobre o regime hidríco e produção de sedimentos na bacia do Ribeirão Concórdia - SC

O uso inadequado dos solos agrícolas vem causando a perda gradual da sua capacidade produtiva e a degradação dos recursos hídricos por sedimentos e poluentes. O uso do solo pode afetar os processos hidrológicos e a erosão do solo na bacia. O objetivo do trabalho foi simular diferentes cenários de uso do solo para a bacia hidrográfica do ribeirão Concórdia, utilizando o modelo SWAT, e analisar os efeitos dessas mudanças no fluxo de água e de sedimentos. Os cenários gerados foram agricultura, mata nativa e pastagem. A bacia está localizada no sul do Brasil e possui uma área de drenagem de 30,74 km². Na etapa de calibração, obteve-se coeficente de eficiência Nash-Sutcliffe mensais de 0,82 para escoamento e 0,83 para sedimento. O cenário mata nativa apresentou o maior decréscimo na vazão média, em relação ao cenário atual, cerca de 8,70%. O cenário agricultura produziu a maior taxa de produção de sedimentos, aproximadamente 3 vezes maior que o cenário atual.Observou-se que alterações no uso do solo impactam o regime e a disponibilidade hídrica da bacia.