Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Cortical mapping of the neuronal circuits modulating the muscle tone. Introduction to the electrophysiological treatment of the spastic hand.

L’objectiu d’aquest estudi es investigar l’organització cortical junt amb la connectivitat còrtico-subcortical en subjectes sans, com a estudi preliminar. Els mapes corticals s’han fet per TMS navegada, i els punts motors obtinguts s’han exportant per estudi tractogràfic i anàlisi de las seves connexions. El coneixement precís de la localització de l’àrea cortical motora primària i les seves connexions es la base per ser utilitzada en estudis posteriors de la reorganització cortical i sub-cortical en pacients amb infart cerebral. Aquesta reorganització es deguda a la neuroplasticitat i pot ser influenciada per els efectes neuromoduladors de la estimulació cerebral no invasiva.

Mapping HIV-related behavioural surveillance among injecting drug users in Europe, 2008.

The systematic collection of behavioural information is an important component of second-generation HIV surveillance. The extent of behavioural surveillance among injecting drug users (IDUs) in Europe was examined using data collected through a questionnaire sent to all 31 countries of the European Union and European Free Trade Association as part of a European-wide behavioural surveillance mapping study on HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The questionnaire was returned by 28 countries during August to September 2008: 16 reported behavioural surveillance studies (two provided no further details). A total of 12 countries used repeated surveys for behavioural surveillance and five used their Treatment Demand Indicator system (three used both approaches). The data collected focused on drug use, injecting practices, testing for HIV and hepatitis C virus and access to healthcare. Eight countries had set national indicators: three indicators were each reported by five countries: the sharing any injecting equipment, uptake of HIV testing and uptake of hepatitis C virus testing. The recall periods used varied. Seven countries reported conducting one-off behavioural surveys (in one country without a repeated survey, these resulted an informal surveillance structure). All countries used convenience sampling, with service-based recruitment being the most common approach. Four countries had used respondent-driven sampling. Three fifths of the countries responding (18/28) reported behavioural surveillance activities among IDUs; however, harmonisation of behavioural surveillance indicators is needed.

Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein 2: epitope mapping and fine specificity of human antibody response against non-polymorphic domains.

BACKGROUND: Two long synthetic peptides representing the dimorphic and constant C-terminal domains of the two allelic families of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface proteins 2 are considered promising malaria vaccine candidates. The aim of the current study is to characterize the immune response (epitope mapping) in naturally exposed individuals and relate immune responses to the risk of clinical malaria. METHODS: To optimize their construction, the fine specificity of human serum antibodies from donors of different age, sex and living in four distinct endemic regions was determined in ELISA by using overlapping 20 mer peptides covering the two domains. Immune purified antibodies were used in Western blot and immunofluorescence assay to recognize native parasite derivate proteins. RESULTS: Immunodominant epitopes were characterized, and their distribution was similar irrespective of geographic origin, age group and gender. Acquisition of a 3D7 family and constant region-specific immune response and antibody avidity maturation occur early in life while a longer period is needed for the corresponding FC27 family response. In addition, the antibody response to individual epitopes within the 3D7 family-specific region contributes to protection from malaria infection with different statistical weight. It is also illustrated that affinity-purified antibodies against the dimorphic or constant regions recognized homologous and heterologous parasites in immunofluorescence and homologous and heterologous MSP2 and other polypeptides in Western blot. CONCLUSION: Data from this current study may contribute to a development of MSP2 vaccine candidates based on conserved and dimorphic regions thus bypassing the complexity of vaccine development related to the polymorphism of full-length MSP2.

Gene expression variation and expression quantitative trait mapping of human chromosome 21 genes.

Inter-individual differences in gene expression are likely to account for an important fraction of phenotypic differences, including susceptibility to common disorders. Recent studies have shown extensive variation in gene expression levels in humans and other organisms, and that a fraction of this variation is under genetic control. We investigated the patterns of gene expression variation in a 25 Mb region of human chromosome 21, which has been associated with many Down syndrome (DS) phenotypes. Taqman real-time PCR was used to measure expression variation of 41 genes in lymphoblastoid cells of 40 unrelated individuals. For 25 genes found to be differentially expressed, additional analysis was performed in 10 CEPH families to determine heritabilities and map loci harboring regulatory variation. Seventy-six percent of the differentially expressed genes had significant heritabilities, and genomewide linkage analysis led to the identification of significant eQTLs for nine genes. Most eQTLs were in trans, with the best result (P=7.46 x 10(-8)) obtained for TMEM1 on chromosome 12q24.33. A cis-eQTL identified for CCT8 was validated by performing an association study in 60 individuals from the HapMap project. SNP rs965951 located within CCT8 was found to be significantly associated with its expression levels (P=2.5 x 10(-5)) confirming cis-regulatory variation. The results of our study provide a representative view of expression variation of chromosome 21 genes, identify loci involved in their regulation and suggest that genes, for which expression differences are significantly larger than 1.5-fold in control samples, are unlikely to be involved in DS-phenotypes present in all affected individuals.

Multi-ethnic fine-mapping of 14 central adiposity loci.

The Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium identified 14 loci in European Ancestry (EA) individuals associated with waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) adjusted for body mass index. These loci are wide and narrowing the signals remains necessary. Twelve of 14 loci identified in GIANT EA samples retained strong associations with WHR in our joint EA/individuals of African Ancestry (AA) analysis (log-Bayes factor >6.1). Trans-ethnic analyses at five loci (TBX15-WARS2, LYPLAL1, ADAMTS9, LY86 and ITPR2-SSPN) substantially narrowed the signals to smaller sets of variants, some of which are in regions that have evidence of regulatory activity. By leveraging varying linkage disequilibrium structures across different populations, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with strong signals and narrower credible sets from trans-ethnic meta-analysis of central obesity provide more precise localizations of potential functional variants and suggest a possible regulatory role. Meta-analysis results for WHR were obtained from 77 167 EA participants from GIANT and 23 564 AA participants from the African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium. For fine mapping we interrogated SNPs within ± 250 kb flanking regions of 14 previously reported index SNPs from loci discovered in EA populations by performing trans-ethnic meta-analysis of results from the EA and AA meta-analyses. We applied a Bayesian approach that leverages allelic heterogeneity across populations to combine meta-analysis results and aids in fine-mapping shared variants at these locations. We annotated variants using information from the ENCODE Consortium and Roadmap Epigenomics Project to prioritize variants for possible functionality.

Early white matter alterations in men predisposed to FXTAS revealed by MT imaging.

Introduction: The Fragile X - associated Tremor Ataxia Syndrome (FXTAS) is a recently described, and under-diagnosed, late onset (≈ 60y) neurodegenerative disorder affecting male carriers of a premutation in the Fragile X Mental Retardation 1 (FMR1) gene. The premutation is an CGG (Cytosine-Guanine-Guanine) expansion (55 to 200 CGG repeats) in the proximal region of the FMR1 gene. Patients with FXTAS primarily present with cerebellar ataxia and intention tremor. Neuroradiological features of FXTAS include prominent white matter disease in the periventricular, subcortical, middle cerebellar peduncles and deep white matter of the cerebellum on T2-weighted or FLAIR MR imaging (Jacquemmont 2007, Loesch 2007, Brunberg 2002, Cohen 2006). We hypothesize that a significant white matter alteration is present in younger individuals many years prior to clinical symptoms and/or the presence of visible lesions on conventional MR sequences and might be detectable by magnetization transfer (MT) imaging. Methods: Eleven asymptomatic premutation carriers (mean age = 55 years) and seven intra-familial controls participated to the study. A standardized neurological examination was performed on all participants and a neuropsychological evaluation was carried out before MR scanning performed on a 3T Siemens Trio. The protocol included a sagittal T1-weighted 3D gradient-echo sequence (MPRAGE, 160 slices, 1 mm^3 isotropic voxels) and a gradient-echo MTI (FA 30, TE 15, matrix size 256*256, pixel size 1*1 mm, 36 slices (thickness 2mm), MT pulse duration 7.68 ms, FA 500, frequency offset 1.5 kHz). MTI was performed by acquiring consecutively two set of images; first with and then without the MT saturation pulse. MT images were coregistered to the T1 acquisition. The MTR for every intracranial voxel was calculated as follows: MTR = (M0 - MS)/M0*100%, creating a MTR map for each subject. As first analysis, the whole white matter (WM) was used to mask the MTR image in order to create an histogram of the MTR distribution in the whole tissue class over the two groups examined. Then, for each subject, we performed a segmentation and parcellation of the brain by means of Freesurfer software, starting from the high resolution T1-weighted anatomical acquisition. Cortical parcellations was used to assign a label to the underlying white matter by the construction of a Voronoi diagram in the WM voxels of the MR volume based on distance to the nearest cortical parcellation label. This procedure allowed us to subdivide the cerebral WM in 78 ROIs according to the cortical parcellation (see example in Fig 1). The cerebellum, by the same procedure, was subdivided in 5 ROIs (2 per each hemisphere and one corresponding to the brainstem). For each subject, we calculated the mean value of MTR within each ROI and averaged over controls and patients. Significant differences between the two groups were tested using a two sample T-test (p<0.01). Results: Neurological examination showed that no patient met the clinical criteria of Fragile X Tremor and Ataxia Syndrome yet. Nonetheless, premutation carriers showed some subtle neurological signs of the disorder. In fact, premutation carriers showed a significant increase of tremor (CRST, T-test p=0.007) and increase of ataxia (ICARS, p=0.004) when compared to controls. The neuropsychological evaluation was normal in both groups. To obtain general characterizations of myelination for each subject and premutation carriers, we first computed the distribution of MTR values across the total white matter volume and averaged for each group. We tested the equality of the two distributions with the non parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and we rejected the null-hypothesis at a p=0.03 (fig. 2). As expected, when comparing the asymptomatic permutation carriers with control subjects, the peak value and peak position of the MTR values within the whole WM were decreased and the width of the distribution curve was increased (p<0.01). These three changes point to an alteration of the global myelin status of the premutation carriers. Subsequently, to analyze the regional myelination and white matter integrity of the same group, we performed a ROI analysis of MTR data. The ROI-based analysis showed a decrease of mean MTR value in premutation carriers compared to controls in bilateral orbito-frontal and inferior frontal WM, entorhinal and cingulum regions and cerebellum (Fig 3). The detection of these differences in these regions failed with other conventional MR techniques. Conclusions: These preliminary data confirm that in premutation carriers, there are indeed alterations in "normal appearing white matter" (NAWM) and these alterations are visible with the MT technique. These results indicate that MT imaging may be a relevant approach to detect both global and local alterations within NAWM in "asymptomatic" carriers of premutations in the Fragile X Mental Retardation 1 (FMR1) gene. The sensitivity of MT in the detection of these alterations might point towards a specific physiopathological mechanism linked to an underlying myelin disorder. ROI-based analyses show that the frontal, parahippocampal and cerebellar regions are already significantly affected before the onset of symptoms. A larger sample will allow us to determine the minimum CGG expansion and age associated with these subclinical white matter alterations.

Evaluation des modifications anatomiques et fonctionnelles de la macula après chirurgie des membranes néovasculaires rétrofovéolaires dans la dégénérescence maculaire liée à l'âge [Evaluation of functional and anatomical changes in the macula after surgery for retro-foveal neovascularization of membranes in age-related macular degeneration].

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the direct effect of surgical treatment of subfoveolar neovascular membranes in age related macular degeneration to macular functions. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirteen eyes of 13 patients were included in this study. Macular function was assayed by visual acuity and central visual field using the Octopus perimeter before surgery and in the first three post operative months. Pre and post operative fluorescein angiography frames were digitalized and the size of each lesions were compared. RESULTS: After a 3 months follow up, visual acuity remained stable or improved in 66% of the patients. However, visual acuity was better than 0.1 in 15% of the patients. Central visual field comparison disclosed a significant worsening of the retinal sensitivity in the 3 degree field surrounding the central point. On fluorescein frames, submacular scar was 141% of the size of the neovascular membrane. After a mean follow up of 6.9 months (range 3-14), one case of recurrence occurred. A cataract was observed in 85% of the phakic patients followed for more than six months. CONCLUSION: After a short term follow up, surgery can stabilise visual acuity, even though it remains poor. A worsening of the scotoma in the 3 degrees surrounding the central point is observed. However, patients noticed a subjective visual improvement in 62% of the case.

Connectome alterations in schizophrenia

Introduction : DTI has proven to be an exquisite biomarker of tissue microstructure integrity. This technique has been successfully applied to schizophrenia in showing that fractional anisotropy (FA, a marker of white matter integrity) is diminished in several areas of the brain (Kyriakopoulos M et al (2008)). New ways of representing diffusion data emerged recently and achieved to create structural connectivity maps in healthy brains (Hagmann P et al. (2008)). These maps have the capacity to study alterations over the entire brain at the connection and network level. This is of high interest in complex disconnection diseases like schizophrenia. We report on the specific network alterations of schizophrenic patients. Methods : 13 patients with chronic schizophrenia were recruited from in-patient, day treatment, out-patient clinics. Comparison subjects were recruited and group-matched to patients on age, sex, handedness, and parental social economic-status. This study was approved by the local IRB and subjects had to give informed written consent. They were scanned with a 3T clinical MRI scanner. DTI and high-resolution anatomical T1w imaging were performed during the same session. The path from diffusion MRI to a multi-resolution structural connection matrices of the entire brain is a five steps process that was performed in a similar way as described in Hagmann P et al. (2008). (1) DTI and T1w MRI of the brain, (2) segmentation of white and gray matter, (3) white matter tractography, (4) segmentation of the cortex into 242 ROIs of equal surface area covering the entire cortex (Fig 1), (5) the connection network was constructed by measuring for each ROI to ROI connection the related average FA along the corresponding tract. Results : For every connection between 2 ROIs of the network we tested the hypothesis H0: "average FA along fiber pathway is larger or equal in patients than in controls". H0 was rejected for connections where average FA in a connection was significantly lower in patients than in controls. Threshold p-value was 0.01 corrected for multiple comparisons with false discovery rate. We identified consistently that temporal, occipito-temporal, precuneo-temporal as well as frontal inferior and precuneo-cingulate connections were altered (Fig 2: significant connections in yellow). This is in agreement with the known literature, which showed across several studies that FA is diminished in several areas of the brain. More precisely, abnormalities were reported in the prefrontal and temporal white matter and to some extent also in the parietal and occipital regions. The alterations reported in the literature specifically included the corpus callosum, the arcuate fasciculus and the cingulum bundle, which was the case here as well. In addition small world indexes are significantly reduced in patients (p<0.01) (Fig. 3). Conclusions : Using connectome mapping to characterize differences in structural connectivity between healthy and diseased subjects we were able to show widespread connectional alterations in schizophrenia patients and systematic small worldness decrease, which is a marker of network desorganization. More generally, we described a method that has the capacity to sensitively identify structure alterations in complex disconnection syndromes where lesions are widespread throughout the connectional network.

A Rapid Mapping Study of Smoking Projects and Services Targeted at People Living on Low Income and/or Minority Ethnic Groups

This is a study concerned with community based services aimed at smokers living on a low income and/or black and minority ethnic groups.

Mapping health inequalities across London

Analysis of infant mortality and life expectancy across London by various dimensions of inequality- socioeconomic; gender; geographical, and trends

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.