Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Optimal Minimum Wage in a Competitive Economy: an Alternative Modelling Approach

This paper analyzes whether a minimum wage can be an optimal redistribution policy when distorting taxes and lump-sum transfers are also available in a competitive economy. We build a static general equilibrium model with a Ramsey planner making decisions on taxes, transfers, and minimum wage levels. Workers are assumed to differ only in their productivity. We find that optimal redistribution may imply the use of a minimum wage. The key factor driving our results is the reaction of the demand for low skilled labor to the minimum wage law. Hence, an optimal minimum wage appears to be most likely when low skilled households are scarce, the complementarity between the two types of workers is large or the difference in productivity is small. The main contribution of the paper is a modelling approach that allows us to adopt analysis and solution techniques widely used in recent public finance research. Moreover, this modelling strategy is flexible enough to allow for potential extensions to include dynamics into the model.

Should Fiscal Policy be different in a Non-Competitive Framework?

Published as an article in: Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, vol. 50, issue 6, pages 1311-1331.

Optimal Fiscal Policy with Rationing in the Labor Market

Published as an article in: Topics in Macroeconomics, 2005, vol. 5, issue 1, article 17.

Microencapsulación de Biocidas

Los productos biocidas presentan una serie de limitaciones para su uso como son: -Perfil toxicológico que limita su utilización en todos lo ámbitos. -Solubilidad que imposibilita o dificulta la utilización del agua como vehículo de elección. -Estado físico que en algunos casos complica la manipulación del biocida por el operador. -Condiciones de almacenamiento que precisan protección frente a la luz y a la temperatura. En esta memoria se plantea como solución a esta problemática, la formación de microencapsulados (complejos de inclusión) de biocidas de tres familias diferentes (nicotinoides, piretroides y carbamatos) y del sinergista butóxido de piperonilo, con ciclodextrinas (oligosacáridos cíclicos). El objetivo de esta investigación es desarrollar las herramientas adecuadas que permitan obtener un producto medioambientalmente compatible, que sirva de base para la obtención de formulaciones eficaces aplicables al control de plagas de insectos voladores, concretamente enfocado a la mosca doméstica (Musca doméstica), tanto en el interior como en el exterior de entornos urbanos y ganaderos. Una vez obtenido el microencapsulado se lleva a cabo su caracterización mediante diversas técnicas analíticas instrumentales: -Electroforesis capilar de zona (ECZ). -Estudios de solubilidad de fase mediante espectroscopía uv-vis. -Estudios calorimétricos (DSC, TG y DTA). -Resonancia Magnética Nuclear (RMN-H1 y RMN-C13). -Análisis Elemental (AE). -Microscopía Electrónica de Barrido (SEM). -Espectroscopía Infrarroja con Transformada de Fourier (FT-IR).

Importancia de la cartera de referencia en la evaluación de los fondos de inversión españoles a través del alfa de Jensen

Este trabajo ha sido presentado como ponencia en el XI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (AEDEM), celebrada en París en septiembre de 2002.

Determination of drugs used in combined cardiovascular therapy

Cardiovascular diseases are nowadays the first cause of mortality worldwide, causing around the 30% of global deaths each year. The risk of suffering from cardiovascular illnesses is strongly related to some factors such as hypertension, high cholesterol levels, diabetes, obesity The combination of these different risk factors is known as metabolic syndrome and it is considered a pandemic due to the high prevalence worldwide. The pathology of the disorders implies a combined cardiovascular therapy with drugs which have different targets and mechanisms of action, to regulate each factor separately. The simultaneous analysis of these drugs turns interesting but it is a complex task since the determination of multiple substances with different physicochemical properties and physiological behavior is always a challenge for the analytical chemist. The complexity of the biological matrices and the difference in the expected concentrations of some analytes require the development of extremely sensitive and selective determination methods. The aim of this work is to fill the gap existing in this field of the drug analysis, developing analytical methods capable of quantifying the different drugs prescribed in combined cardiovascular therapy simultaneously. Liquid chromatography andem mass spectrometry (LCMS/MS) has been the technique of choice throughout the main part of this work, due to the high sensitivity and selectivity requirements.

Identification of a biomarker panel for colorectal cancer diagnosis

Background: Malignancies arising in the large bowel cause the second largest number of deaths from cancer in the Western World. Despite progresses made during the last decades, colorectal cancer remains one of the most frequent and deadly neoplasias in the western countries. Methods: A genomic study of human colorectal cancer has been carried out on a total of 31 tumoral samples, corresponding to different stages of the disease, and 33 non-tumoral samples. The study was carried out by hybridisation of the tumour samples against a reference pool of non-tumoral samples using Agilent Human 1A 60- mer oligo microarrays. The results obtained were validated by qRT-PCR. In the subsequent bioinformatics analysis, gene networks by means of Bayesian classifiers, variable selection and bootstrap resampling were built. The consensus among all the induced models produced a hierarchy of dependences and, thus, of variables. Results: After an exhaustive process of pre-processing to ensure data quality–lost values imputation, probes quality, data smoothing and intraclass variability filtering–the final dataset comprised a total of 8, 104 probes. Next, a supervised classification approach and data analysis was carried out to obtain the most relevant genes. Two of them are directly involved in cancer progression and in particular in colorectal cancer. Finally, a supervised classifier was induced to classify new unseen samples. Conclusions: We have developed a tentative model for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer based on a biomarker panel. Our results indicate that the gene profile described herein can discriminate between non-cancerous and cancerous samples with 94.45% accuracy using different supervised classifiers (AUC values in the range of 0.997 and 0.955).

Internacionalización de la producción en las factorías navales

[ES] La internacionalización de la producción de las factorías navales viene impulsada por las posibilidades que las nuevas técnicas de construcción abren a la desagregación de los procesos productivos. Además, los avances experimentados en las tecnologías de la información y comunicación reducen los inconvenientes de la deslocalización de actividades en distintos centros ubicados en áreas geográficas distantes. Asimismo, el abaratamiento de los costes de transporte resta importancia a los escollos del desplazamiento de las partes del buque entre los distintos puntos de construcción. Pese a ello, en el sector naval, cuyo mercado objetivo habitual es de ámbito mundial, la internacionalización de la producción resulta ser una práctica menos frecuente.

Harmful algal blooms in the PICES region of the North Pacific

Foreword Background and objectives [pdf, 0.84 MB] Country reviews and status reports Section I. Western North Pacific Japan Yasuwo Fukuyo, Ichiro Imai, Masaaki Kodama and Kyoichi Tamai Red tides and harmful algal blooms in Japan [pdf, 0.7 MB] People's Republic of China Tian Yan, Ming-Jiang Zhou and Jing-Zhong Zou A national report of HABs in China [pdf, 0.24 MB] Republic of Korea Sam Geun Lee, Hak Gyoon Kim, Eon Seob Cho and Chang Kyu Lee Harmful algal blooms (red tides): Management and mitigation in Korea [pdf, 0.27 MB] Russia Tatiana Y. Orlova, Galina V. Konovalova, Inna V. Stonik, Tatiana V. Morozova and Olga G. Shevchenko Harmful algal blooms on the eastern coast of Russia [pdf, 1.4 MB] Section II. Eastern North Pacific Canada F.J.R. "Max" Taylor and Paul J. Harrison Harmful marine algal blooms in western Canada [pdf, 0.87 MB] United States of America Vera L. Trainer Harmful algal blooms on the U.S. west coast [pdf, 0.5 MB] Mexico Jose L. Ochoa, S. Lluch-Cota, B.O. Arredondo-Vega, E. Nuñes-Vázquez, A. Heredia-Tapia, J. Pérez-Linares and R. Alonso-Rodriguez Marine Biotoxins and harmful algal blooms in Mexico's Pacific littora [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary and conclusions [pdf, 0.6 MB] Appendices A. Members of the Working Group [pdf, 0.1 MB] B. Original terms of reference (Vladivostok, 1999) [pdf, 0.08 MB] C. Annual reports of WG 15 [pdf, 0.15 MB] D. Workshop report on taxonomy and identification of HAB species and data management [pdf, 0.15 MB] (Document pdf contains 156 pages)

Innovación, financiación pública y tamaño empresarial

[ES] A partir de los microdatos de la "encuesta sobre innovación tecnológica 1998-2000" se construye una base de datos con las empresas manufactureras españolas que realizan actividades de innovación. Posteriormente, mediante las pruebas Chi-cuadrado de Pearson y Mann-Whitney, contrastamos si el tamaño condiciona la participación de las empresas manufactureras innovadoras en los sistemas de ayuda pública a la innovación; asimismo, a través de los índices de Kendall y Spearman evaluamos la dirección de dicho condicionamiento. Al respecto, los contrastes realizados nos indican que la variable tamaño se encuentra relacionada con la variable financiación pública, y que son las empresas de mayor tamaño las que más se benefician de las ayudas públicas a la innovación.

La Planificación Estratégica como instrumento de gestión pública en el gobierno local: Análisis de caso

[ES] Los responsables políticos y los gestores de los gobiernos locales de las ciudades se enfrentan con un problema recurrente: cómo atender, con recursos cada vez más escasos, las demandas de sus ciudadanos y a los actores con interés en su territorio, en términos tanto de eficacia en la prestación de servicios como de profundización democrática. Utilizando una metodología cualitativa, el objetivo de este trabajo es identificar hasta que punto un proceso de planificación estratégica pública sirve para compatibilizar las demandas de democracia y eficacia en el gobierno y administración pública local, involucrando a los ciudadanos y a los actores económicos privados. Este estudio de caso demuestra esa posibilidad aunque se hacen necesarias investigaciones comparativas adicionales.

Using network mesures to test evolved NK-landscapes

In this paper we empirically investigate which are the structural characteristics that can help to predict the complexity of NK-landscape instances for estimation of distribution algorithms. To this end, we evolve instances that maximize the estimation of distribution algorithm complexity in terms of its success rate. Similarly, instances that minimize the algorithm complexity are evolved. We then identify network measures, computed from the structures of the NK-landscape instances, that have a statistically significant difference between the set of easy and hard instances. The features identified are consistently significant for different values of N and K.

Adición conjugada asimétrica de equivalentes umpolung de acilo y carboxilo : auxiliares quirales vs organocatálisis

365 p.

Una nueva especie de Xyliphius de la Argentina (Siluriformes, Bunocephalidae).

Reconocimiento de una nuevo género de la familia Bunocephalidae existente en las colecciones del Museo de La Plata.