Information and efficiency: goal arrival in soccer betting

An efficient market incorporates news into prices immediately and fully. Tests for efficiency in financial markets have been undermined by information leakage. We test for efficiency in sports betting markets – real-world markets where news breaks remarkably cleanly. Applying a novel identification to high-frequency data, we investigate the reaction of prices to goals scored on the ‘cusp’ of half-time. This strategy allows us to separate the market's response to major news (a goal), from its reaction to the continual flow of minor game-time news. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.

Upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across decadal to sub-daily timescales: a case study of Plynlimon, Wales

Streamwater nitrate dynamics in the River Hafren, Plynlimon, mid-Wales were investigated over decadal to sub-daily timescales using a range of statistical techniques. Long-term data were derived from weekly grab samples (1984–2010) and high-frequency data from 7-hourly samples (2007–2009) both measured at two sites: a headwater stream draining moorland and a downstream site below plantation forest. This study is one of the first to analyse upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across such a wide range of timescales and report on the principal mechanisms identified. The data analysis provided no clear evidence that the long-term decline in streamwater nitrate concentrations was related to a decline in atmospheric deposition alone, because nitrogen deposition first increased and then decreased during the study period. Increased streamwater temperature and denitrification may also have contributed to the decline in stream nitrate concentrations, the former through increased N uptake rates and the latter resultant from increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Strong seasonal cycles, with concentration minimums in the summer, were driven by seasonal flow minimums and seasonal biological activity enhancing nitrate uptake. Complex diurnal dynamics were observed, with seasonal changes in phase and amplitude of the cycling, and the diurnal dynamics were variable along the river. At the moorland site, a regular daily cycle, with minimum concentrations in the early afternoon, corresponding with peak air temperatures, indicated the importance of instream biological processing. At the downstream site, the diurnal dynamics were a composite signal, resultant from advection, dispersion and nitrate processing in the soils of the lower catchment. The diurnal streamwater nitrate dynamics were also affected by drought conditions. Enhanced diurnal cycling in Spring 2007 was attributed to increased nitrate availability in the post-drought period as well as low flow rates and high temperatures over this period. The combination of high-frequency short-term measurements and long-term monitoring provides a powerful tool for increasing understanding of the controls of element fluxes and concentrations in surface waters.

Do jumps matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from energy markets

This paper characterizes the dynamics of jumps and analyzes their importance for volatility forecasting. Using high-frequency data on four prominent energy markets, we perform a model-free decomposition of realized variance into its continuous and discontinuous components. We find strong evidence of jumps in energy markets between 2007 and 2012. We then investigate the importance of jumps for volatility forecasting. To this end, we estimate and analyze the predictive ability of several Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) models that explicitly capture the dynamics of jumps. Conducting extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, we establish that explicitly modeling jumps does not significantly improve forecast accuracy. Our results are broadly consistent across our four energy markets, forecasting horizons, and loss functions

Diel surface temperature range scales with lake size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.

Evaluation of a cognitive behavior therapy program for people with sexual dysfunction

This article reports on an evaluation of a cognitive behavioral program for the treatment of sexual dysfunction. Frequency data are provided on the sexual dysfunction of 95 males (mean age = 41.6 years) and 105 females (mean age = 36.4 years). The effectiveness of a cognitive behavioral program among 45 sexually dysfunctional males (mean age = 39.9 years) and 54 sexually dysfunctional females (mean age = 36.2 years) was assessed. The results demonstrated that, after therapy, respondents experienced lower levels of sexual dysfunction, more positive attitudes toward sex, perceptions that sex was more enjoyable, fewer affected aspects of sexual dysfunction in their relationship, and a lower likelihood of perceiving themselves as a sexual failure. The implications of these findings for the treatment of sexual dysfunction are discussed.

Time-varying dependence in the intraday AUS/USD spot market

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar this study examines the distribution of quotes and returns across the 24 hour trading "day". Employing statistical methods for measuring long-tenn dependence in time-series we find evidence of time-varying dependence and volatility that aligns with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

Population dynamics of the infaunal bivalve, Soletellina alba

The population dynamics of the infaunal bivalve Soletellina alba was investigated at three sites situated within close proximity to the mouth of the Hopkins River estuary. The initial study design was planned to examine the importance of winter flooding to the persistence of this bivalve mollusc within the Hopkins estuary, since mass mortalities have been observed during previous years coincident with periods of winter flooding. Unfortunately, the climatic conditions experienced during this study were atypical compared to the long-term average, so detailed sampling was limited to two, unanticipated, non-flood years rather than two, highly anticipated, flood years. This hampered my ability to conduct complete tests of the importance of winter flooding. Patterns of river discharge and the frequency and duration of mouth opening and closing differed greatly from that expected. Unexpectedly, periods of mouth closure were not always associated with periods of minimal river discharge; low salinities were another unexpected result during an extended period of mouth closure during 1998. As expected, salinities varied considerably with increasing water depth when the estuary mouth was open. Mouth closure lead to salinities becoming more uniform between water depths but hypoxic and anoxic conditions became evident via stratification in the water column at 1 m below the Australian Height Datum (AHD). Other than trends associated with increased water depth, significant variation was not evident between measurements of salinity taken from three sites within close proximity of the estuary mouth (approximately 500 m), or during changes in tide. The most pertinent anomaly was the absence of winter flooding. The distribution and abundance of juvenile and adult S. alba was variable across all Dates, Sites and Channel elevations (i.e. water depths) sampled during this study. An experimental test comparing the recruitment of juveniles at different channel elevations and in sediments of varying particle size was conducted during an exceptionally successful period of recruitment during 1999. The results of these tests showed that recruitment was greatest at the shallowest channel elevation used, and there was little evidence that sediment particle size influenced recruitment. In contrast to 1999, recruitment during 1997 or 1998 was extremely poor. Growth rates were monitored using tagged individuals held in caged and uncaged plots, which revealed that growth was highly variable among individuals, but not between Sites. These tests also revealed that growth was negligible during the colder, winter months, and that the fastest growing individuals were capable of growing 0.2 mm/day. Mixed results were obtained for tests of potential cage artifacts and the influence of handling. Caging and differing amounts of handling did not appear to influence growth, but there was evidence that cages and handling influenced bivalve condition and number of mortalities. These direct tests appeared to be the most appropriate method for determining growth rates of this species, since attempts to analyse length-frequency data were made difficult by the apparent convergence of cohorts, and shell aging is difficult due to the thin, fragile nature of the shell. As expected, mass mortalities were observed during the flood of 1996, but not during the two non-flood years of 1997 and 1998. There were, however, some considerable declines in abundances at some channel elevations during the two non-flood years. However, these declines were attributable to the complete disappearance of individuals, rather than the sudden presence of numerous, recently dead individuals that typify observed declines during winter flooding. The complete disappearance of individuals suggest that S. alba may be capable of post-settlement emigration, or that they were consumed by an unknown predator. Salinity tolerance tests showed that bivalves exposed to low salinities (≤6 ppt), exhibited poorer condition and took longer to re-burrow into sediments than those exposed to greater salinities (≥14 ppt), while death of bivalves exposed to salinities ≤1 ppt occurred after 8 days of exposure. These tests provide evidence that low salinities are probably the principal cause of mass mortalities during winter flooding, although the interaction between salinity, temperature and turbidity also deserve consideration. The results of this study indicate that certain aspects of winter flooding, especially salinity, are responsible for the mass mortalities of S. alba rather than the result of a short-lived life history. I hypothesise that the survival of very young juveniles (between 0.5 and 1 mm shell length) and rapid growth rates are important features of the life history of S. alba that explain its successful persistence within the Hopkins River estuary. The rapid rates of growth suggest that it may be possible for juveniles that survive winter flooding to grow, reach sexual maturity, and reproduce before the onset of the next flood event. Unfortunately, the increased survivorship of juveniles during periods of winter flooding was not demonstrated by this study because of the absence of winter flooding and also relatively poor recruitment. It is highly likely that this species is capable of completing it entire life cycle within the estuary since the absence of other nearby populations, together with periods of mouth closure, are likely to greatly limit the potential contribution made by larvae entering from the surrounding marine environment. This study has added considerably to our knowledge of how infauna cope with life in the intermittently closing estuaries that typify semi-arid coastlines in the Southern Hemisphere.

Fine-scale effects of habitat loss and fragmentation despite large-scale gene flow for some regionally declining woodland bird species

Habitat loss and associated fragmentation effects are well-recognised threats to biodiversity. Loss of functional connectivity (mobility, gene flow and demographic continuity) could result in population decline in altered habitat, because smaller, isolated populations are more vulnerable to extinction. We tested whether substantial habitat reduction plus fragmentation is associated with reduced gene flow in three 'decliner' woodland-dependent bird species (eastern yellow robin, weebill and spotted pardalote) identified in earlier work to have declined disproportionately in heavily fragmented landscapes in the Box-Ironbark forest region in north-central Victoria, Australia. For these three decliners, and one 'tolerant' species (striated pardalote), we compared patterns of genetic diversity, relatedness, effective population size, sex-ratios and genic (allele frequency) differentiation among landscapes of different total tree cover, identified population subdivision at the regional scale, and explored fine-scale genotypic (individual-based genetic signature) structure. Unexpectedly high genetic connectivity across the study region was detected for 'decliner' and 'tolerant' species. Power analysis simulations suggest that moderate reductions in gene flow should have been detectable. However, there was evidence of local negative effects of reduced habitat extent and structural connectivity: slightly lower effective population sizes, lower genetic diversity, higher within-site relatedness and altered sex-ratios (for weebill and eastern yellow robin) in 10 x 10 km 'landscapes' with low vegetation cover. We conclude that reduced structural connectivity in the Box-Ironbark ecosystem may still allow sufficient gene flow to avoid the harmful effects of inbreeding in our study species. Although there may still be negative consequences of fragmentation for demographic connectivity, the high genetic connectivity of mobile bird species in this system suggests that reconnecting isolated habitat patches may be less important than increasing habitat extent and/or quality if these need to be traded off.

Copy number variation and transposable elements feature in recent, ongoing adaptation at the Cyp6g1 locus

The increased transcription of the Cyp6g1 gene of Drosophila melanogaster, and consequent resistance to insecticides such as DDT, is a widely cited example of adaptation mediated by cis-regulatory change. A fragment of an Accord transposable element inserted upstream of the Cyp6g1 gene is causally associated with resistance and has spread to high frequencies in populations around the world since the 1940s. Here we report the existence of a natural allelic series at this locus of D. melanogaster, involving copy number variation of Cyp6g1, and two additional transposable element insertions (a P and an HMS-Beagle). We provide evidence that this genetic variation underpins phenotypic variation, as the more derived the allele, the greater the level of DDT resistance. Tracking the spatial and temporal patterns of allele frequency changes indicates that the multiple steps of the allelic series are adaptive. Further, a DDT association study shows that the most resistant allele, Cyp6g1-[BP], is greatly enriched in the top 5% of the phenotypic distribution and accounts for ~16% of the underlying phenotypic variation in resistance to DDT. In contrast, copy number variation for another candidate resistance gene, Cyp12d1, is not associated with resistance. Thus the Cyp6g1 locus is a major contributor to DDT resistance in field populations, and evolution at this locus features multiple adaptive steps occurring in rapid succession.

The association between alcohol interventions and Dui incidents in Geelong, Victoria

Introduction and aims : Driving under the influence of alcohol is a major public health problem, every year affecting the lives of billions around the world - and not least in Australia. Since 2001, several Traffic Accident Commission (TAC), police, and community interventions have been implemented in Geelong, Australia to curb drink driving. The current paper aims to assess the impact of 13 alcohol interventions on drink-driving rates in the Geelong region of Australia. The interventions comprised seven TAC media campaigns, three Victoria Police operations, two community interventions targeting licensed premises, and the alcohol interlock program.

Method : This study examined two types of Victoria Police frequency data: Driving under the influence (DUI) offences, and roadside preliminary breath testing (PBT) rates. Multiple regressions were carried out to determine if any of the interventions were significantly associated with frequency fluctuations in the data.

Results : Of the 13 alcohol interventions examined, three TAC campaigns and one Victoria Police operation precipitated significant decreases in drink-driving rates, while another three TAC campaigns were associated with significant increases in drink-driving rates. Over one in five (22.5%) had recorded prior DUI offences.

Conclusions : The most promising approach to curbing DUI-rates in Geelong, appear to be through informative media campaigns which show people specific settings where they might become mildly intoxicated without being aware of it, such as TAC’s ‘Education 1’ campaign. However, there remains a worrying level of recidivist drink drivers in Geelong suggesting the need for tailored approaches.

Is exchange rate trading profitable?

We Test whether exchange rate trading is profitable in the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India, And South Africa. Using Momentum trading strategies applied to high frequency data, we discover that: (a) momentum-based trading strategies lead to statistically significant profits from the currencies of all four emerging markets; (b) The South African Rand Is generally the most profitable, followed by the Brazilian Real And the Indian Rupee; (c) Profits are persistent during the day and are trading frequency dependent; and (d) During the period of the global financial crisis currency profits were maximised.

Are price limits on futures markets that cool? evidence from the brazilian merchantile & futures exchange

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazil- ian future markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. Our main finding is that price limits drive back prices as they approach the lower limit. There is a strong cool-off effect of the lower limit on the conditional mean, whereas the upper limit seems to entail a weak magnet effect on the conditional variance. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic signifi- cance. The resulting Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider.

Testing the externalities hypothesis of endogenous growth using cointegration

The initial endogenous growth models emphasized the importance of externaI effects in explaining sustainable growth across time. Empirically, this hypothesis can be confirmed if the coefficient of physical capital per hour is unity in the aggregate production function. Although cross-section results concur with theory, previous estimates using time series data rejected this hypothesis, showing a small coefficient far from unity. It seems that the problem lies not with the theory but with the techniques employed, which are unable to capture low frequency movements in high frequency data. This paper uses cointegration - a technique designed to capture the existence of long-run relationships in multivariate time series - to test the externalities hypothesis of endogenous growth. The results confirm the theory' and conform to previous cross-section estimates. We show that there is long-run proportionality between output per hour and a measure of capital per hour. U sing this result, we confmn the hypothesis that the implied Solow residual can be explained by government expenditures on infra-structure, which suggests a supply side role for government affecting productivity and a decrease on the extent that the Solow residual explains the variation of output.

Growth, increasing returns, and public infrastructure : time series evidence

Initial endogenous growth models emphasized the importance of external effects and increasing retums in explaining growth. Empirically, this hypothesis can be confumed if the coefficient of physical capital per hour is unity in the aggregate production function. Previous estimates using time series data rejected this hypothesis, although cross-country estimates did nol The problem lies with the techniques employed, which are unable to capture low-frequency movements of high-frequency data. Using cointegration, new time series evidence confum the theory and conform to cross-country evidence. The implied Solow residual, which takes into account externaI effects to aggregate capital, has its behavior analyzed. The hypothesis that it is explained by government expenditures on infrasttucture is confIrmed. This suggests a supply-side role for government affecting productivity.

Are price limits on futures markets that cool?: evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the S˜ao Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicate that the conditional mean features a floor cool-off effect, whereas the conditional variance significantly increases as the price approaches the upper limit. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic significance. The in-sample Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider, whereas out-of-sample results evince similar performances.