Au1to-reporte de la condición física relacionada con la salud en una muestra de escolares del distrito Bogotá: estudio FUPRECOL

Introducción y objetivo: La escala de auto-reporte de la condición física (IFIS) “The International FItness Scale”, fue creada como parte del proyecto financiado por la unión europea HELENA Study “Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence”. A la fecha, no se conoce ningún estudio que haya examinado el auto-reporte de la condición física en un contexto distinto al Europeo. Este trabajo evalúa por auto-reporte la condición física relacionada con la salud (CFRS) en una muestra de niños y adolescentes del distrito de Bogotá pertenecientes al grupo FUPRECOL. Materiales y Método: Estudio transversal en 1.922 escolares (54.3% mujeres). Se aplicó de manera auto-administrada la escala “IFIS”. Se midió el peso, talla, circunferencia de cintura y se calculó el índice de masa corporal (IMC) en kg/m2. La capacidad aeróbica, el índice general de fuerza (z-score fuerza prensil + z-score salto de longitud), la velocidad/agilidad y la flexibilidad fueron como indicadores objetivos de la CFRS objetiva y directa. Resultados: La muestra estuvo conformada por 1.922 escolares, de los cuales 1.045 fueron mujeres (54.3%) y 877 hombres (45.6%). El análisis ANOVA mostró que los varones tenían mayores valores de peso (p<0.003), estatura (p<0.001), CC (p<0.001), capacidad aeróbica (p<0.001), velocidad/agilidad (p<0.001) e índice general de fuerza (p<0.001), mientras que las mujeres presentaron exceso de peso por IMC (sobrepeso y obesidad). En el componente de condición física general, las puntuaciones más altas en la escala “IFIS” se encontraron en la categoría buena (40%), seguido de aceptable (34%), mientras que la puntuación más baja se encontró en la categoría muy mala/mala (6%). En población general, relaciones lineales fueron observadas entre el auto-reporte de la CFRS por la escala “IFIS” y la mayoría de los indicadores del fitness evaluado objetivamente. El análisis post-hoc ajustado por sexo, edad y etapa de maduración reveló que los escolares que acusaron mejores valores en la auto-percepción de los dominios del “IFIS”, presentaron mejor desempeño en los indicadores de CFRS objetivos. Conclusión: Este trabajo describe por primera vez en población Latina, que el auto-reporte con la escala “IFIS”, es un instrumento válido para evaluar la CFRS, y además posee una adecuada capacidad para clasificar la aptitud física en población escolar de Bogotá, Colombia. Esta escala se encuentra disponible para otros investigadores interesados en evaluar la condición física muscular en América Latina.

Correlacion entre hemoglobina glicosilada con hallazgos sintax score ii en pacientes con sospecha clínica de enfermedad coronaria, hospitalizados en la unidad coronaria del hospital San José centro en enero a septiembre del año 2015

Se realiza un estudio de corte transversal en el periodo de enero a septiembre del año 2016 en la unidad coronaria del Hospital San José Centro de la Ciudad de Bogotá; en pacientes con sospecha de enfermedad coronaria (Síndrome coronario agudo y angina estable) y antecedente de Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2, se recolectaron 42 pacientes con los criterios de inclusión a quienes se realizó angiografía coronaria como parte del protocolo de estudio y manejo de la unidad, el objetivo primario fue demostrar la posible correlación entre niveles de hemoglobina glicosilada y la escala de severidad SYNTAX Score I y II de enfermedad coronaria, como objetivos secundarios; caracterizar las variables sociodemográficas, comorbilidades y posible relación con el tipo de presentación de enfermedad coronaria. Como hallazgos relevantes no se encontró correlación importante ni significativa entre niveles de hemoglobina glicosilada y la escala Syntax score II ni Syntax score I, a pesar de que la mayoría de pacientes mostraban mal control crónico de su diabetes mellitus tipo 2, con niveles mayores > 7%, como hallazgo positivo se encontro asociación estadísticamente significativa con niveles de LDL y las diferentes formas de presentación de enfermedad coronaria, a mayor niveles de LDL mayor probabilidad de IAM e IAM con elevación del segmento ST. Se considera que con estudios multicentricos en diferentes ciudades y unidades de cuidado cardiovascular con diferentes niveles de riesgo, se podría demostrar la posible correlación entre niveles de hemoglobina glicosilada y los grados de severidad de enfermedad coronaria representados por las escalas Syntax score I y II.

Not all systematic reviews are systematic : a meta-review of the quality of systematic reviews for non-invasive remote monitoring in heart failure

Remote monitoring for heart failure has been evaluated in numerous systematic reviews. The aim of this meta-review was to appraise their quality and synthesise results. We electronically searched online databases, performed a forward citation search and hand-searched bibliographies. Systematic reviews of remote monitoring interventions that were used for surveillance of heart failure patients were included. Seven (41%) systematic reviews pooled results for meta-analysis. Eight (47%) considered all non-invasive remote monitoring strategies. Five (29%) focused on telemonitoring. Four (24%) included both non-invasive and invasive technologies. According to AMSTAR criteria, ten (58%) systematic reviews were of poor methodological quality. In high quality reviews, the relative risk of mortality in patients who received remote monitoring ranged from 0.53 (95% CI=0.29-0.96) to 0.88 (95% CI=0.76-1.01). High quality reviews also reported that remote monitoring reduced the relative risk of all-cause (0.52; 95% CI=0.28-0.96 to 0.96; 95% CI=0.90–1.03) and heart failure-related hospitalizations (0.72; 95% CI=0.64–0.81 to RR 0.79; 95% CI=0.67-0.94) and, as a consequence, healthcare costs. As the high quality reviews reported that remote monitoring reduced hospitalizations, mortality and healthcare costs, research efforts should now be directed towards optimising these interventions in preparation for more widespread implementation.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

Dietary fat and breast cancer mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: The influence of dietary fat upon breast cancer mortality remains largely understudied despite extensive investigation into its influence upon breast cancer risk 

Objective: To conduct meta-analyses of studies to clarify the association between dietary fat and breast cancer mortality Design: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for relevant articles published up to March 2012. Risk of all-cause or breast cancer specific death was evaluated by combining multivariable adjusted estimates comparing highest versus lowest categories of intake; and per 20 gram increase in intake of total and/or saturated fat (g/day) using random-effects meta-analyses. 

Results: Fifteen prospective cohort studies investigating total fat and/or saturated fat intake (g/day) and breast cancer mortality were included. There was no difference in risk of breast cancer specific death (n = 6; HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.52; P = 0.34) or all cause death (n = 4; HR = 1.73; 95% CI: 0.82, 3.6; P = 0.15) for women in the highest versus lowest category of total fat intake. Breast cancer specific death (n = 5; HR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.24; p <0.01) was higher for women in the highest versus lowest category of saturated fat intake. 

Conclusions: These meta-analyses have shown that saturated fat intake negatively impacts upon breast cancer survival.

Mortality among 24,865 workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in three electrical capacitor manufacturing plants: a ten-year update.

The objective of this analysis was to evaluate mortality among a cohort of 24,865 capacitor-manufacturing workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at plants in Indiana, Massachusetts, and New York and followed for mortality through 2008. Cumulative PCB exposure was estimated using plant-specific job-exposure matrices. External comparisons to US and state-specific populations used standardized mortality ratios, adjusted for gender, race, age and calendar year. Among long-term workers employed 3 months or longer, within-cohort comparisons used standardized rate ratios and multivariable Poisson regression modeling. Through 2008, more than one million person-years at risk and 8749 deaths were accrued. Among long-term employees, all-cause and all-cancer mortality were not elevated; of the a priori outcomes assessed only melanoma mortality was elevated. Mortality was elevated for some outcomes of a priori interest among subgroups of long-term workers: all cancer, intestinal cancer and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (women); melanoma (men); melanoma and brain and nervous system cancer (Indiana plant); and melanoma and multiple myeloma (New York plant). Standardized rates of stomach and uterine cancer and multiple myeloma mortality increased with estimated cumulative PCB exposure. Poisson regression modeling showed significant associations with estimated cumulative PCB exposure for prostate and stomach cancer mortality. For other outcomes of a priori interest--rectal, liver, ovarian, breast, and thyroid cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Alzheimer disease, and Parkinson disease--neither elevated mortality nor positive associations with PCB exposure were observed. Associations between estimated cumulative PCB exposure and stomach, uterine, and prostate cancer and myeloma mortality confirmed our previous positive findings.

Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Influence of sedation on morbidity and mortality in the intensive care unit

CONTEXTO: Embora cerca de 30% a 50% dos pacientes hospitalizados em unidades de terapia intensiva (UTI) recebam algum tipo de sedativo, existe escassez de informações sobre efeitos adversos desta prática, especialmente no Brasil. Estes efeitos podem ser significantes e o uso de sedativos é associado a elevação de infecção e mortalidade, mesmo sendo difícil avaliar o impacto clínico deste procedimento. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o impacto da sedação sobre incidência de complicações e mortalidade em doentes graves durante internação em unidade de terapia intensiva. TIPO DE ESTUDO: Estudo prospectivo. LOCAL: Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Cirúrgica da Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) - Escola Paulista de Medicina. PARTICIPANTES: Após excluídos pacientes que permaneceram menos de 24 horas ou sem exames indispensáveis para o cálculo do índice de gravidade (APACHE II), restaram 307 pacientes. Estes foram divididos em dois grupos: Grupo Sedado e Grupo Não Sedado. Constatada heterogeneidade com relação ao APACHE II, foram pareados 97 sedados e 97 não sedados com idênticos índices de gravidade. VARIÁVEIS ESTUDADAS: Impacto da sedação e das técnicas sobre a mortalidade, tempo de internação, além da incidência de escara de decúbito ou pressão, trombose venosa profunda e infecção. RESULTADOS: Não houve diferença na incidência de trombose venosa profunda, entre os grupos Sedado e Não Sedado, enquanto que escara de decúbito foi significativamente maior nos sedados (p = 0,03). Infecção foi detectada em 45,4% dos pacientes com sedação e em 21,6% dos pacientes sem sedação (p = 0,006). A mortalidade para os pacientes que não receberam qualquer tipo de sedativo foi de 20,6% e, para aqueles que foram sedados durante a internação, foi de 52,6% (p < 0,0001). CONCLUSÕES: Conclui-se que a sedação está associada a maior duração da internação, morbidade e mortalidade significativas. Apesar da intensidade das associações encontradas, não é possível estabelecer relação causal entre sedação e mortalidade.

Mortality associated with diabetes and cardiovascular disease in older women

Background Current guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) recommend diabetes as a CVD risk equivalent. However, reports that have examined the risk of diabetes in comparison to pre-existing CVD are lacking among older women. We aimed to assess whether diabetes was associated with a similar risk of total and cause-specific mortality as a history of CVD in older women. Methodology/Principal Findings We studied 9218 women aged 68 years or older enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fracture) during a mean follow-up period of 11.7 years and compared all-cause, cardiovascular and coronary heart disease mortality among 4 groups: non-diabetic women with and without existing CVD, diabetic women with and without existing CVD. Mean (SD) age of the participants was 75.2 (5.3) years, 3.5% reported diabetes and 6.8% reported existing CVD. During follow-up, 5117 women died with 36% from CVD. The multivariate adjusted risk of cardiovascular mortality was increased among both non-diabetic women with CVD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.32, 95% CI: 1.97–2.74, P<0.001) and diabetic women without CVD (HR 2.06, CI: 1.62–2.64, P<0.001) compared to non-diabetic women without existing CVD. All-cause, cardiovascular and coronary mortality of non-diabetic women with CVD were not significantly different from diabetic women without CVD. Conclusions/Significance Older diabetic women without CVD have a similar risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to non-diabetic women with pre-existing CVD. The equivalence of diabetes and CVD seems to extend to older women, supporting current guidelines for cardiovascular prevention.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

High life in the sky? Mortality by floor of residence in Switzerland

Living in high-rise buildings could influence the health of residents. Previous studies focused on structural features of high-rise buildings or characteristics of their neighbourhoods, ignoring differences within buildings in socio-economic position or health outcomes. We examined mortality by floor of residence in the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study based on the linkage of December 2000 census with mortality and emigration records 2001-2008. Analyses were based on 1.5 million people living in buildings with four or more floors and 142,390 deaths recorded during 11.4 million person-years of follow-up. Cox models were adjusted for age, sex, civil status, nationality, language, religion, education, professional status, type of household and crowding. The rent per m² increased with higher floors and the number of persons per room decreased. Mortality rates decreased with increasing floors: hazard ratios comparing the ground floor with the eighth floor and above were 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.28] for all causes, 1.40 (95% CI 1.11-1.77) for respiratory diseases, 1.35 (95% CI 1.22-1.49) for cardiovascular diseases and 1.22 (95% CI 0.99-1.50) for lung cancer, but 0.41 (95% CI 0.17-0.98) for suicide by jumping from a high place. There was no association with suicide by any means (hazard ratio 0.81; 95% CI 0.57-1.15). We conclude that in Switzerland all-cause and cause-specific mortality varies across floors of residence among people living in high-rise buildings. Gradients in mortality suggest that floor of residence captures residual socioeconomic stratification and is likely to be mediated by behavioural (e.g. physical activity), and environmental exposures, and access to a method of suicide.

Prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: validation of the logistic clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Interventions With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score

OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.

HDL Cholesterol Is Not Associated with Lower Mortality in Patients with Kidney Dysfunction

In the general population, HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) is associated with reduced cardiovascular events. However, recent experimental data suggest that the vascular effects of HDL can be heterogeneous. We examined the association of HDL-C with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study comprising 3307 patients undergoing coronary angiography. Patients were followed for a median of 9.9 years. Estimated GFR (eGFR) was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration eGFR creatinine-cystatin C (eGFRcreat-cys) equation. The effect of increasing HDL-C serum levels was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. In participants with normal kidney function (eGFR>90 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), higher HDL-C was associated with reduced risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and coronary artery disease severity (hazard ratio [HR], 0.51, 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.26-0.92 [P=0.03]; HR, 0.30, 95% CI, 0.13-0.73 [P=0.01]). Conversely, in patients with mild (eGFR=60-89 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) and more advanced reduced kidney function (eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), higher HDL-C did not associate with lower risk for mortality (eGFR=60-89 ml/min per 1.73 m(2): HR, 0.68, 95% CI, 0.45-1.04 [P=0.07]; HR, 0.84, 95% CI, 0.50-1.40 [P=0.50]; eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2): HR, 1.18, 95% CI, 0.60-1.81 [P=0.88]; HR, 0.82, 95% CI, 0.40-1.69 [P=0.60]). Moreover, Cox regression analyses revealed interaction between HDL-C and eGFR in predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (P=0.04 and P=0.02, respectively). We confirmed a lack of association between higher HDL-C and lower mortality in an independent cohort of patients with definite CKD (P=0.63). In summary, higher HDL-C levels did not associate with reduced mortality risk and coronary artery disease severity in patients with reduced kidney function. Indeed, abnormal HDL function might confound the outcome of HDL-targeted therapies in these patients.

Tuberculosis-related mortality in people living with HIV in Europe and Latin America: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND Management of tuberculosis in patients with HIV in eastern Europe is complicated by the high prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, low rates of drug susceptibility testing, and poor access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We report 1 year mortality estimates from a multiregional (eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America) prospective cohort study: the TB:HIV study. METHODS Consecutive HIV-positive patients aged 16 years or older with a diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, were enrolled from 62 HIV and tuberculosis clinics in 19 countries in eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America. The primary endpoint was death within 12 months after starting tuberculosis treatment; all deaths were classified according to whether or not they were tuberculosis related. Follow-up was either until death, the final visit, or 12 months after baseline, whichever occurred first. Risk factors for all-cause and tuberculosis-related deaths were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox models. FINDINGS Of 1406 patients (834 in eastern Europe, 317 in western Europe, and 255 in Latin America), 264 (19%) died within 12 months. 188 (71%) of these deaths were tuberculosis related. The probability of all-cause death was 29% (95% CI 26-32) in eastern Europe, 4% (3-7) in western Europe, and 11% (8-16) in Latin America (p<0·0001) and the corresponding probabilities of tuberculosis-related death were 23% (20-26), 1% (0-3), and 4% (2-8), respectively (p<0·0001). Patients receiving care outside eastern Europe had a 77% decreased risk of death: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·23 (95% CI 0·16-0·31). In eastern Europe, compared with patients who started a regimen with at least three active antituberculosis drugs, those who started fewer than three active antituberculosis drugs were at a higher risk of tuberculosis-related death (aHR 3·17; 95% CI 1·83-5·49) as were those who did not have baseline drug-susceptibility tests (2·24; 1·31-3·83). Other prognostic factors for increased tuberculosis-related mortality were disseminated tuberculosis and a low CD4 cell count. 18% of patients were receiving ART at tuberculosis diagnosis in eastern Europe compared with 44% in western Europe and 39% in Latin America (p<0·0001); 12 months later the proportions were 67% in eastern Europe, 92% in western Europe, and 85% in Latin America (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Patients with HIV and tuberculosis in eastern Europe have a risk of death nearly four-times higher than that in patients from western Europe and Latin America. This increased mortality rate is associated with modifiable risk factors such as lack of drug susceptibility testing and suboptimal initial antituberculosis treatment in settings with a high prevalence of drug resistance. Urgent action is needed to improve tuberculosis care for patients living with HIV in eastern Europe. FUNDING EU Seventh Framework Programme.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.