Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Riddling and invariance for discontinuous maps preserving Lebesgue measure

In this paper we use the mixture of topological and measure-theoretic dynamical approaches to consider riddling of invariant sets for some discontinuous maps of compact regions of the plane that preserve two-dimensional Lebesgue measure. We consider maps that are piecewise continuous and with invertible except on a closed zero measure set. We show that riddling is an invariant property that can be used to characterize invariant sets, and prove results that give a non-trivial decomposion of what we call partially riddled invariant sets into smaller invariant sets. For a particular example, a piecewise isometry that arises in signal processing (the overflow oscillation map), we present evidence that the closure of the set of trajectories that accumulate on the discontinuity is fully riddled. This supports a conjecture that there are typically an infinite number of periodic orbits for this system.

Trade and environment: Evidence from China's manufacturing sector

This paper focusing on the Chinese manufacturing sector assesses the environmental impact of trade liberalization in China. The results show that China's experience with the trade liberalization-environment nexus is consistent with international evidence. On one hand, trade liberalization has had various positive effects on the environment. Firstly, it promoted specialization in areas of comparative advantage, which, in general, included industries that contributed less to environmental degradation. Secondly, it allowed China to access and adopt the best international practices in pollution abatement technology. Thirdly, it enabled China to transfer environmental costs to other countries by importing intermediate products whose production contributed to environmental degradation. On the other hand, these positive effects were overwhelmed by a negative scale effect, which was the result of a huge increase in the demand for Chinese exports. The paper concludes that if China is to prevent pollution from reaching a critical threshold, environmental regulations need to be tightened. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Cost of malaria control in China: Henan's consolidation programme from community and government perspectives

Objective To assist with strategic planning for the eradication,of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported, Methods We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in-mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme. suspected malaria case management,, vector surveillance,,and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patient's were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors. in six-townships or former communities (population 247 762), and studied all 12 315 reported cases of suspected malaria in catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. Findings The average-annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%;vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for-patients seeking-treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent,to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an, average of US$ 0.78. Conclusion Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs, when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels,of US$ 0.03 per person a risk.

The nexus of value chain integration and e-business applications on public sector agriculture R&D management

We examine the potential impact of interconnectivity of value chain partnerships through electronic means (e-business practices) on the management of Public Sector Agriculture R&D in Australia. We review the changing forms of managing research and development, the forces driving these changes, and R&D processes that are theoretically consistent with the move towards value chain involvement and the increase in active constituents in Public Sector Agriculture R&D. We then explore the potential of emerging e-business models to change the patterns of inter-connectivity, speed and omnipresence of partners in the value chain. Three e-business R&D management practices are identified that provide the prerequisite flexibility necessary to take advantage of opportunistic markets. These R&D business practices are: compressing R&D to reduce time to market, fostering co-development to enter a market at the last moment and building flexible products that allow adjustment at the last possible moment. Some fundamental reallocation of existing resources will be required to meet these markets. Implications of these e-business practices for R&D management are discussed.

A Devonian (Givetian) fore-reef slope sequence at Liangshuijing and implication for Devonian platform-to-depression development in Guilin, South China

Three Bahama-like carbonate plaforms-the Guilin, Yangshuo and Yanshan-occurred in Guilin and the surrounding regions during Middle and Late Devonian, which, at a broad scale, are part of an extensive carbonate platform (Xiangzhou carbonate platform) facies in South China. The intraplatform depression facies, a unique characteristic of the Chinese Devonian depositional sequence, separates Bahama-like (platform-to-depression) carbonate subplatfonns. Intraplatform depressions resulted from syndepositional faulting that cut the basement of carbonate subplatforms and affected further platform development. The Liangshuijing section, located between the Guilin platform in the north and the Yangshuo platform in the south, is representative of the fore-reef slope facies neighboring an intraplatform. depression. The South edge of the fore-reef slope lies adjacent to the Yangshuo reef carbonate platform, and the north edge graded into the Yangdi pelagic depression facies. A detailed sedimentary and microfacies analysis work done in this study at the Liangshuijing section shows a distinct vertical facies change from back-reef, restricted platform, hemipelagic, to fore-reefslope facies, differing from either shallow-water benthic facies or typical pelagic facies. Various benthic and pelagic lithofacies and their associations have been recognized in the Liangshuijing section, including dolomitic rudstone, gastropod wackestone, Amphipora floatstone, tentaculitoid wackestone, stromatolite and oncoid limestone, Amphipora grainstone, grain flows, laminated limestone, flat-pebble and brachiopod floatstone, and carbonate turbidites. Eight types of sedimentary cycles composed of two or three lithofacies have been distinguished, which are able to indicate environment changes. Stromatolites, oncoids, grain flows, carbonate turbidites, and tentaculitoid limestones characterize the slope and intraplatform depression lithofacies. Analysis of the vertical sedimentary cycles in the Liangshuijinag section and the lateral stratigraphic equivalents suggest the differing facies patterns occurred at the middle Varcus Zone (Givetian) of Middle Devonian, coeval with the development of fore-reef slope facies in the Guilin area in response to syndeposifional faulting.

Productivity growth in pre-1990 Mongolian agriculture: Spiralling disaster or emerging success?

The reasons for the spectacular collapse of so many centrally-planned economies are a source of ongoing debate. In this paper, we use detailed farm-level data to measure total factor productivity (TFP) changes in Mongolian grain and potato farming during the 14-year period immediately preceding the 1990 economic reforms. We measure TFP growth using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. Our results indicate quite poor overall performance, with an average annual TFP change of - 1.7% in grain and 0.8% in potatoes, over the 14-year period. However, the pattern of TFP growth changed substantially during this period, with TFP growth exceeding 7% per year in the latter half of this period. This suggests that the new policies of improved education, greater management autonomy, and improved incentives, which were introduced in final two planning periods in the 1980s, were beginning to have a significant influence upon the performance of Mongolian crop farming. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

High-frequency climatic oscillations recorded in a Holocene coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China sea

A detailed study of the Goniopora reef profile at Dengloujiao, Xuwen County, Leizhou Peninsula, the northern coast of the South China Sea suggests that a series of high-frequency, large-amplitude and abrupt cold events occurred during the Holocene Hypsithermal, an unusual phenomenon termed Leizhou Events in this paper. This period (corresponding to C-14 age of 6.2 -6.7 kaBP or calendar age of 6.7-7.2 kaBP), when the climatic conditions were ideal for coral. reefs to develop, can be divided into at least nine stages. Each stage (or called a climate optimum), lasting about 20 to 50 a, was terminated by an abrupt cold nap and (or) a sea-level lowering event in winter, leading to widespread emergence and death of the Goniopora corals, and growth discontinuities on the coral surface. Such a cyclic process resulted in the creation of a > 4m thick Goniopora reef flat. During this period, the crust subsided periodically but the sea level was rising. The reef profile provides valuable archives for the study of decadal-scale mid-Holocene climatic oscillations in the tropical area of South China. Our results provide new evidence for high-frequency climate instability in the Holocene Hypsithermal, and challenge the traditional understanding of Holocene climate.

U-Series dating of Liujiang hominid site in Guangxi, Southern China

It has been established that modern humans were living in the Levant and Africa ca. 100 ka ago. Hitherto, this has contrasted with the situation in China where no unequivocal specimens of this species have been securely dated to more than 30 ka. Here we present the results of stratigraphic studies and U-series dating of the Tongtianyan Cave, the discovery site of the Liujiang hominid, which represents one of the few well-preserved fossils of modern Homo sapiens in China. The human fossils are inferred to come from either a refilling breccia or a primarily deposited gravel-bearing sandy clay layer. In the former case, which is better supported, the fossils would date to at least similar to 68 ka, but more likely to similar to 111-139 ka. Alternatively, they would be older than, similar to 153 ka. Both scenarios would make the Liujiang hominid one of the earliest modem humans in East Asia, possibly contemporaneous with the earliest known representatives from the Levant and Africa. Parallel studies on other Chinese localities have provided supporting evidence for the redating of Liujiang, which may have important implications for, the origin of modem humans. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Food safety and development of the beef industry in China

Food safety concerns have escalated in China as they have elsewhere, especially in relation to meats. Beef production and consumption has increased proportionately faster than all other meats over the last two decades. Yet the slaughtering, processing and marketing of beef remains, for the most part, extremely primitive when compared with Western beef supply chains. By comparing the economics of household slaughtering with that of various types of abattoirs, this paper explains why household slaughtering and wet markets still dominate beef processing and distribution in China. The negative economic, social and industry development implications of enforcing more stringent food safety regulations are highlighted. The willingness/capacity of consumers to pay the added cost of better inspection and other services to guarantee food safety is investigated. In this context, the paper also evaluates the market opportunities for both domestic and imported Green Beef. The paper questions the merit of policy initiatives aimed at modernising Chinese beef supply chains for the mass market along Western lines. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple maps and activity-dependent representational plasticity in the anterior Wulst of the adult barn owl (Tyto alba)

In the present study we addressed the issue of somatosensory representation and plasticity in a nonmammalian species, the barn owl. Multiunit mapping techniques were used to examine the representation of the specialized receptor surface of the claw in the anterior Wulst. We found dual somatotopic mirror image representations of the skin surface of the contralateral claw. In addition, we examined both representations 2 weeks after denervation of the distal skin surface of a single digit. In both representations, the denervated digital representation became responsive to stimulation of the adjacent, mutually functional, digit. The mutability and multiple representations indicates that the Wulst provides the owl with sensory processing capabilities analogous to those in mammals.