Trends in Productive Years of Life Lost to Premature Mortality Due to Coronary Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of productive years of life lost to premature death due to coronary heart disease in Brazil and to report their trends over a 20-year period. METHODS: The Brazilian Ministry of Health raw database on death due to coronary heart disease from 1979-1998 was used. The productive years of life lost to premature death were estimated using 20 and 59 years of age as the cut points for the productive years, replacing the potential years of 1 and 70 of the original formula. A descriptive analysis was provided with adjustments, means, proportions, ratios, percentages of increase or reduction, and mobile means. RESULTS: A 35.8% increase in death for males and 51.3% for females was observed, +43.3% being the relative difference for females. The annual means of the productive years of life prematurely lost were analyzed in 140,865 males and 58,559 females, with the differential ratio between the age groups ranging from 2.3 to 2.5. The annual means were less favorable for males. Within each group (intragroup), the ratios decreased with the increase in age, and the age means at the time of death remained constant. The raw tendencies decreased in the 20- to 29-year age group and increased in the 40- to 59-year age group for females and the 40- to 49-year age group for males. When adjusted, the raw tendencies decreased. CONCLUSION: The 43.3% increase in the number of female deaths as compared with that of males and the ascending tendency in the productive years of life lost in the 40- to 59-year age group point to the influence of unfavorable changes in female lifestyles and suggest a deficiency in programs for prevention and control of risk factors and in their treatment in both sexes.

Serum Potassium Levels Inversely Correlate with D-Dimer In Patients with Acute-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

Background: D-dimer values are frequently increased in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) compared to subjects in sinus rhythm. Hypokalemia plays a role in several cardiovascular diseases, but little is known about the association with AF. Objective: D-dimer values are frequently increased in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) compared with subjects in sinus rhythm. Hypokalemia plays a role in several cardiovascular diseases, but little is known about the association with AF. The aim of this study was to investigate correlations between D-dimer and serum potassium in acute-onset AF (AAF). Methods: To investigate the potential correlation between the values of serum potassium and D-dimer in patients with AAF, we retrospectively reviewed clinical and laboratory data of all emergency department visits for AAF in 2013. Results: Among 271 consecutive AAF patients with D-dimer assessments, those with hypokalemia (n = 98) had significantly higher D-dimer values than normokalemic patients (139 versus 114 ng/mL, p = 0.004). The rate of patients with D-dimer values exceeding the diagnostic cut-off was higher in the group of patients with hypokalemia than in those with normal serum potassium (26.5% versus 16.2%; p = 0.029). An inverse and highly significant correlation was found between serum potassium and D-dimer (r = −0.21; p < 0.001), even after adjustments for age and sex (beta coefficient −94.8; p = 0.001). The relative risk for a positive D-dimer value attributed to hypokalemia was 1.64 (95% CI, 1.02 to 2.63; p = 0.040). The correlation remained statistically significant in patients free from antihypertensive drugs (r = −0.25; p = 0.018), but not in those taking angiotensin-receptor blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, or diuretics. Conclusions: The inverse correlation between values of potassium and D-dimer in patients with AAF provides important and complementary information about the thromboembolic risk of these patients.

Serial High-Sensitivity Troponin T in Post-Primary Angioplasty Exercise Test

Abstract Background: The kinetics of high-sensitivity troponin T (hscTnT) release should be studied in different situations, including functional tests with transient ischemic abnormalities. Objective: To evaluate the release of hscTnT by serial measurements after exercise testing (ET), and to correlate hscTnT elevations with abnormalities suggestive of ischemia. Methods: Patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary angioplasty were referred for ET 3 months after infarction. Blood samples were collected to measure basal hscTnT immediately before (TnT0h), 2 (TnT2h), 5 (TnT5h), and 8 hours (TnT8h) after ET. The outcomes were peak hscTnT, TnT5h/TnT0h ratio, and the area under the blood concentration-time curve (AUC) for hscTnT levels. Log-transformation was performed on hscTnT values, and comparisons were assessed with the geometric mean ratio, along with their 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was assessed by analysis of covariance with no adjustment, and then, adjusted for TnT0h, age and sex, followed by additional variables (metabolic equivalents, maximum heart rate achieved, anterior wall STEMI, and creatinine clearance). Results: This study included 95 patients. The highest geometric means were observed at 5 hours (TnT5h). After adjustments, peak hscTnT, TnT5h/TnT0h and AUC were 59% (p = 0.002), 59% (p = 0.003) and 45% (p = 0.003) higher, respectively, in patients with an abnormal ET as compared to those with normal tests. Conclusion: Higher elevations of hscTnT may occur after an abnormal ET as compared to a normal ET in patients with STEMI.

Ecology of colonizing populations of the figfly Zaprionus indianus (Diptera, Drosophilidae) in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil

Ecological parameters such as trophic niche overlap and niche breadth were computed from the frequency of all drosophilid species collected in 2001 and 2002, in the urban area of Porto Alegre city, Brazil. Independently of place, drosophilids community composition and components breeding or feeding sites, the highest frequencies of Zaprionus indianus (Gupta, 1970) were obtained during seasons with higher average temperatures, especially during summer. From a total of the 19,146 individuals of Z. indianus sampled, 80% were found in this season. The data of trophic niche breadth suggest a higher opportunism of adult flies in feeding substrate use, but the females are still selective in oviposition substrate choice. For the values of niche overlap, only for some species, did we find any correlation between these and species richness and/or number of resources, and the most of the correlation values considering breeding and feeding sites were positive. The colonization of Z. indianus in Porto Alegre could be leading to adjustments in the survival strategies of the resident species, but it is possible that many species have conditions for coexisting with the invader.

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Impacto redistributivo desagregado del IVA actual en España: posibles vías de reforma

The VAT is the most revenue tax in the Spanish economy in the year 2000. The aim of this research is to develop an analysis dissintegrated of the distributional effect of the current VAT in Spain, that is to say, this paper assesses the capacity of redistribution of the tax treatment of each expenditure category. It proposes different approaches for the analysis of the redistributive impact differential of each expenditure concept, and it desires to advocate the method of total decomposition of isolated contribution to the global distributional effect of the VAT. In this sense, this study shows the possibilities to identify the guidelines for possible fiscal adjustments of the Value Added Tax to contribute positively to the objectives of social justice, and its respective consequences on the population's welfare.

Safety and immunogenicity of the M72/AS01 candidate tuberculosis vaccine in HIV-infected adults on combination antiretroviral therapy: a phase I/II, randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: Tuberculosis (TB) is highly prevalent among HIV-infected people, including those receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), necessitating a well tolerated and efficacious TB vaccine for these populations. We evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of the candidate TB vaccine M72/AS01 in adults with well controlled HIV infection on cART. DESIGN: A randomized, observer-blind, controlled trial (NCT00707967). METHODS: HIV-infected adults on cART in Switzerland were randomized 3 : 1 : 1 to receive two doses, 1 month apart, of M72/AS01, AS01 or 0.9% physiological saline (N = 22, N = 8 and N = 7, respectively) and were followed up to 6 months postdose 2 (D210). Individuals with CD4⁺ cell counts below 200 cells/μl were excluded. Adverse events (AEs) including HIV-specific and laboratory safety parameters were recorded. Cell-mediated (ICS) and humoral (ELISA) responses were evaluated before vaccination, 1 month after each dose (D30, D60) and D210. RESULTS: Thirty-seven individuals [interquartile range (IQR) CD4⁺ cell counts at screening: 438-872 cells/μl; undetectable HIV-1 viremia] were enrolled; 73% of individuals reported previous BCG vaccination, 97.3% tested negative for the QuantiFERON-TB assay. For M72/AS01 recipients, no vaccine-related serious AEs or cART-regimen adjustments were recorded, and there were no clinically relevant effects on laboratory safety parameters, HIV-1 viral loads or CD4⁺ cell counts. M72/AS01 was immunogenic, inducing persistent and polyfunctional M72-specific CD4⁺ T-cell responses [medians 0.70% (IQR 0.37-1.07) at D60] and 0.42% (0.24-0.61) at D210, predominantly CD40L⁺IL-2⁺TNF-α⁺, CD40L⁺IL-2⁺ and CD40L⁺IL-2⁺TNF-α⁺IFN-γ⁺]. All M72/AS01 vaccines were seropositive for anti-M72 IgG after second vaccination until study end. CONCLUSION: M72/AS01 was clinically well tolerated and immunogenic in this population, supporting further clinical evaluation in HIV-infected individuals in TB-endemic settings.

Ambulatory blood pressure measurement and antihypertensive therapy.

The traditional basis for assessing the effect of antihypertensive therapy is the blood pressure reading taken by a physician. However, several recent trials have been designed to evaluate the blood pressure lowering effect of various therapeutic agents during the patients' normal daytime activities, using a portable, semi-automatic blood pressure recorder. The results have shown that in a given patient, blood pressure measured at the physician's office often differs greatly from that prevailing during the rest of the day. This is true both in treated and untreated hypertensive patients. The difference between office and ambulatory recorded pressures cannot be predicted from blood pressure levels measured by the physician. Therefore, a prospective study was carried out in patients with diastolic blood pressures that were uncontrolled at the physician's office despite antihypertensive therapy. The purpose was to evaluate the response of recorded ambulatory blood pressure to treatment adjustments aimed at reducing office blood pressure below a pre-set target level. Only patients with high ambulatory blood pressures at the outset appeared to benefit from further changes in therapy. Thus, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring can be used to identify those patients who remain hypertensive only when facing the physician, despite antihypertensive therapy. Ambulatory monitoring could thus help to evaluate the efficacy of antihypertensive therapy and allow individual treatment.

Threshold Effects of Dismissal Protection Regulation and the Emergence of Temporary Work Agencies

Labour market regulations aimed at enhancing job-security are dominant in several OECD countries. These regulations seek to reduce dismissals of workers and fluctuations in employment. The main theoretical contribution is to gauge the effects of such regulations on labour demand across establishment sizes. In order to achieve this, we investigate an optimising model of labour demand under uncertainty through the application of real option theory. We also consider other forms of employment which increase the flexibility of the labour market. In particular, we are modelling the contribution of temporary employment agencies (Zeitarbeit) allowing for quick personnel adjustments in client firms. The calibration results indicate that labour market rigidities may be crucial for understanding sluggishness in firms´ labour demand and the emergence and growth of temporary work.

Hysteresis in the fundamentals of macroeconomics

Two fundamental problems in economic analysis concern the deter mination of aggregate output, and the determination of market prices and quantities. The way economic adjustments are made at the micro level suggests that the history of shocks to the economic environment matters. This paper presents tractable approach for introducing hysteresis into models of how aggregate output and market prices and quantities are determined.

Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination and Multiple Structural Changes

The large appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar in the 1980s stimulated an important debate on the usefulness of unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks. In this paper, we propose a simple model to describe the evolution of the real exchange rate. We then propose a more general smooth transition (STR) function than has hitherto been employed, which is able to capture structural changes along the (long-run) equilibrium path, and show that this is consistent with our economic model. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment between regimes and allows for under- and/or over-valued exchange rate adjustments. Using monthly and quarterly data for up to twenty OECD countries, we apply our methodology to investigate the univariate time series properties of CPI-based real exchange rates with both the U.S. dollar and German mark as the numeraire currencies. The empirical results show that, for more than half of the quarterly series, the evidence in favour of the stationarity of the real exchange rate was clearer in the sub-sample period post-1980.

Memory of Recessions

This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of recessions on potential output. In contrast to the assumption in mainstream macroeconomic models that economic fluctuations do not change potential output paths, the evidence is that they do in the case of recessions. A model is proposed to explain this phenomenon, based on an analogy with water flows in porous media. Because of the discrete adjustments made by heterogeneous economic agents in such a world, potential output displays hysteresis with regard to aggregate demand shocks, and thus retains a memory of the shocks associated with recessions.

Challenging recommended oral and intravenous voriconazole doses for improved efficacy and safety: population pharmacokinetics-based analysis of adult patients with invasive fungal infections.

BACKGROUND: Recommended oral voriconazole (VRC) doses are lower than intravenous doses. Because plasma concentrations impact efficacy and safety of therapy, optimizing individual drug exposure may improve these outcomes. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) was performed on 505 plasma concentration measurements involving 55 patients with invasive mycoses who received recommended VRC doses. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. VRC clearance was 5.2 L/h, the volume of distribution was 92 L, the absorption rate constant was 1.1 hour(-1), and oral bioavailability was 0.63. Severe cholestasis decreased VRC elimination by 52%. A large interpatient variability was observed on clearance (coefficient of variation [CV], 40%) and bioavailability (CV 84%), and an interoccasion variability was observed on bioavailability (CV, 93%). Lack of response to therapy occurred in 12 of 55 patients (22%), and grade 3 neurotoxicity occurred in 5 of 55 patients (9%). A logistic multivariate regression analysis revealed an independent association between VRC trough concentrations and probability of response or neurotoxicity by identifying a therapeutic range of 1.5 mg/L (>85% probability of response) to 4.5 mg/L (<15% probability of neurotoxicity). Population-based simulations with the recommended 200 mg oral or 300 mg intravenous twice-daily regimens predicted probabilities of 49% and 87%, respectively, for achievement of 1.5 mg/L and of 8% and 37%, respectively, for achievement of 4.5 mg/L. With 300-400 mg twice-daily oral doses and 200-300 mg twice-daily intravenous doses, the predicted probabilities of achieving the lower target concentration were 68%-78% for the oral regimen and 70%-87% for the intravenous regimen, and the predicted probabilities of achieving the upper target concentration were 19%-29% for the oral regimen and 18%-37% for the intravenous regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Higher oral than intravenous VRC doses, followed by individualized adjustments based on measured plasma concentrations, improve achievement of the therapeutic target that maximizes the probability of therapeutic response and minimizes the probability of neurotoxicity. These findings challenge dose recommendations for VRC.

Employment Protection, Flexibility and Firms’ Strategic Location Decisions under Uncertainty

We construct a model in which oligopolistic firms decide between locating in a country where employment protection implies costly output adjustments and in one without employment protection. Using a two-period three-stage game with uncertainty, we demonstrate that location is influenced by both flexibility and strategic concerns. The strategic effects under Cournot work towards domestic anchorage in the country with employment protection while those under Bertrand do not. Strategic agglomeration can occur in the inflexible country under Cournot and even under Bertrand, provided uncertainty and foreign direct investment costs are low.

Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization

This paper studies discretionary non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policy stabilization in a New Keynesian model, where the fiscal policymaker uses a distortionary taxe as the policy instrument and operates with long periods between optimal time-consistent adjustments of the instrument. We demonstrate that longer fiscal cycles result in stronger complementarities between the optimal actions of the monetary and fiscal policymakers. When the fiscal cycle is not very long, the complementarities lead to expectation traps. However, with a sufficiently long fiscal cycle — one year in our model — no learnable time-consistent equilibrium exists. Constraining the fiscal policymaker in its actions may help to avoid these adverse effects.