Development of a New Assessment System to Evaluate Students' English Communicative Capacities in China

The purpose of this study was to develop a new English assessment system to evaluate Chinese students' English communicative capacities. Since there is more interaction with people from English-speaking countries, Chinese people attach more importance to English oral skills, and a lot of Western English teaching methods were introduced into China to improve students' English communicative capacities. However, traditional paper-written examinations, like the English test of higher education entry examination, cannot evaluate it effectively. This study explored the perceptions of two Chinese English-language teachers and two Chinese students about English assessment system. A qualitative research method using telephone interviews was conducted in this study. The findings showed that the most possible ways to assess Chinese students' English communicative capacities were paper-written examination and person-machine conversations, although measures should be taken to improve these two models. On the other hand, the model of person-person conversation was the ideal assessment tool but was hard to achieve at the current stage.

Globalization and Its Impact on Assessment: Moving Toward a New Story

Globalization has resulted in large-scale international and local assessments closely tied to notions of accountability and competitiveness in a globalized economy. Although policy makers seek to ensure citizens meet the demands of a global knowledge-based economy, such assessments may also impede the development of requisite 21st century skills. While standardization currently is viewed as the most effective measurement of student achievement, several Canadian and international jurisdictions are moving toward assessment for learning (AfL). This conceptual study sought to identify whether AfL or standardized assessment most effectively meets 21st century learning goals in the wake of rapid global change. It applies a Story Model theoretical framework to understand the current, the new emerging, and the future ideal story of education from a personal, cultural, and global lens. The study examines the main critiques and/or challenges of standardized testing, the benefits of AfL for student learning, and new teaching and assessment approaches to the development of 21st century learning goals. The study applies the Story Model’s inside-outside/past-future approach to determine the future direction of assessment. Results show that the new story of assessment will most likely entail a model that integrates both standardized testing and in-class assessments in the form of AfL and PBL.

A detailed assessment of adverse perioperative outcomes of the elderly treated with radical cystectomy for bladder cancer

Objectifs: Les données provenant des centres de soins tertiaires suggèrent que le taux de mortalité péri-opératoire (MPO) après cystectomie notés pour les patients âgés (septuagénaires et octogénaires) n’excède pas celle des patients plus jeunes. Toutefois, les données provenant de la communauté démontrent un phénomène inverse. Spécifiquement, la MPO est plus élevés chez les ainés. Dans cette thèse nous allons présenter une réévaluation contemporaine du taux de MPO après cystectomie. Méthodes: Entre 1988 et 2006, 12722 cystectomies radicales pour le carcinome urothéliale de la vessie ont été enregistrées dans la banque de données SEER. Le taux de MPO a été évalué dans les analyses de régression logistique univariées et multivariées à 90 jours après cystectomie radicale. Les covariables incluaient: le sexe, l’ethnie, l’année de chirurgie, la région d’origine du patient ainsi que le grade et le stade de la tumeur. Résultats: Parmi tous les patients, 4480 étaient des septuagénaires (35.2%) et 1439 étaient des octogénaires (11.3%). Le taux de MPO à 90 jours était de 4% pour la cohorte entière vs. 2% pour les patients moins de 69 ans vs. 5.4% pour les septuagénaires vs. 9.2% pour les octogénaires. Dans les analyses de régression logistiques multivariées, les septuagénaires (OR=2.80; <0.001) et les octogénaires (OR=5.02; <0.001) avaient reçu un taux de MPO plus augmenté que les patients moins de 70 ans après une cystectomie radicale. Conclusion: Cette analyse épidémiologique basée sur les donnés le plus contemporaines démontre que l’âge avancée représente un facteur de risque pour un taux de MPO plus élevé.

Service quality and reliability assessment of mobile communication infrastructure

The service quality of any sector has two major aspects namely technical and functional. Technical quality can be attained by maintaining technical specification as decided by the organization. Functional quality refers to the manner which service is delivered to customer which can be assessed by the customer feed backs. A field survey was conducted based on the management tool SERVQUAL, by designing 28 constructs under 7 dimensions of service quality. Stratified sampling techniques were used to get 336 valid responses and the gap scores of expectations and perceptions are analyzed using statistical techniques to identify the weakest dimension. To assess the technical aspects of availability six months live outage data of base transceiver were collected. The statistical and exploratory techniques were used to model the network performance. The failure patterns have been modeled in competing risk models and probability distribution of service outage and restorations were parameterized. Since the availability of network is a function of the reliability and maintainability of the network elements, any service provider who wishes to keep up their service level agreements on availability should be aware of the variability of these elements and its effects on interactions. The availability variations were studied by designing a discrete time event simulation model with probabilistic input parameters. The probabilistic distribution parameters arrived from live data analysis was used to design experiments to define the availability domain of the network under consideration. The availability domain can be used as a reference for planning and implementing maintenance activities. A new metric is proposed which incorporates a consistency index along with key service parameters that can be used to compare the performance of different service providers. The developed tool can be used for reliability analysis of mobile communication systems and assumes greater significance in the wake of mobile portability facility. It is also possible to have a relative measure of the effectiveness of different service providers.

Performance Assessment of Sandwich Structures with Debonds and Dents

A sandwich construction is a special form of the laminated composite consisting of light weight core, sandwiched between two stiff thin face sheets. Due to high stiffness to weight ratio, sandwich construction is widely adopted in aerospace industries. As a process dependent bonded structure, the most severe defects associated with sandwich construction are debond (skin core bond failure) and dent (locally deformed skin associated with core crushing). Reasons for debond may be attributed to initial manufacturing flaws or in service loads and dent can be caused by tool drops or impacts by foreign objects. This paper presents an evaluation on the performance of honeycomb sandwich cantilever beam with the presence of debond or dent, using layered finite element models. Dent is idealized by accounting core crushing in the core thickness along with the eccentricity of the skin. Debond is idealized using multilaminate modeling at debond location with contact element between the laminates. Vibration and buckling behavior of metallic honeycomb sandwich beam with and without damage are carried out. Buckling load factor, natural frequency, mode shape and modal strain energy are evaluated using finite element package ANSYS 13.0. Study shows that debond affect the performance of the structure more severely than dent. Reduction in the fundamental frequencies due to the presence of dent or debond is not significant for the case considered. But the debond reduces the buckling load factor significantly. Dent of size 8-20% of core thickness shows 13% reduction in buckling load capacity of the sandwich column. But debond of the same size reduced the buckling load capacity by about 90%. This underscores the importance of detecting these damages in the initiation level itself to avoid catastrophic failures. Influence of the damages on fundamental frequencies, mode shape and modal strain energy are examined. Effectiveness of these parameters as a damage detection tool for sandwich structure is also assessed

An exploratory assessment of the potential impact of the free trade area of the americas on the andean community

A través de una simulación llevada a cabo con GTAP, este documento presenta una evaluación preliminar del impacto potencial que el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas tendría sobre la Comunidad Andina de Naciones. Mantenido por la Universidad de Purdue, el GTAP es un modelo multiregional de equilibrio general, ampliamente usado para el análisis de temas de economía internacional. El experimento llevado a cabo tiene lugar en un ambiente de competencia perfecta y rendimientos constantes a escala y consiste en la completa eliminación de aranceles a las importaciones de bienes entre los países del Hemisferio Occidental. Los resultados muestran la presencia de modestas pero positivas ganancias netas de bienestar para la Comunidad Andina, generadas fundamentalmente por mejoras en la asignación de recursos. Movimientos desfavorables en los términos de intercambio y el efecto de la desviación de comercio con respecto a terceros países, reducen considerablemente las ganancias potenciales de bienestar. De la misma forma, la existencia de distorsiones económicas al interior de la Comunidad Andina tiene un efecto negativo sobre el bienestar. El patrón de comercio aumenta su grado de concentración en el comercio bilateral con los Estados Unidos y la remuneración real a los factores productivos presenta mejoras con la implementación de la zona de libre comercio.

Pose and Structure Recovery using Active Models

A new formulation of a pose refinement technique using ``active'' models is described. An error term derived from the detection of image derivatives close to an initial object hypothesis is linearised and solved by least squares. The method is particularly well suited to problems involving external geometrical constraints (such as the ground-plane constraint). We show that the method is able to recover both the pose of a rigid model, and the structure of a deformable model. We report an initial assessment of the performance and cost of pose and structure recovery using the active model in comparison with our previously reported ``passive'' model-based techniques in the context of traffic surveillance. The new method is more stable, and requires fewer iterations, especially when the number of free parameters increases, but shows somewhat poorer convergence.

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change.

This paper describes the development and first results of the “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the community of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers’ ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth’s climate system is provided.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.