Modelos lineares generalizados bayesianos para dados longitudinais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

O olho mágico, o abrigo e a ameaça: convulções - Ruy Guerra filma Chico Buarque

Desde a década de 1990, o «cinema da retomada» focaliza a violência social, a corrupção e a crise institucional no Brasil. São poucos os filmes que se afastam desta postura de transparência e de ajuste aos códigos dominantes no mercado, trabalhando dentro de um estilo afinado ao cinema moderno de autor. Um dos melhores exemplos nesta direção é Estorvo (2000), de Ruy Guerra, adaptação do livro de Chico Buarque. O artigo demonstrará como o filme, tal qual a obra original, opta por uma narrativa que nos desconcerta ao trabalhar na própria forma a crise do sujeito na atualidade, repondo nossa interrogação sobre o percurso das personagens – e da ordem familiar – em seu peculiar envolvimento com aspectos contundentes da violência social no Brasil.

Unidades organizativas indígenas del área indoeuropea de Hispania III: Addenda

[EN] This article analyses the new names, repeated and non-repeated names being both included in similar fashion, of indigenous units of organization (cognationes, gentes and gentilitates), discovered back in the 90’s (20th C.). These names are mentioned in the Latin and Celtiberian inscriptions from Indo-European Hispania.

Trasporto di materia in membrane polimeriche e nanocomposite per la separazione di gas

Membrane-based separation processes are acquiring, in the last years, an increasing importance because of their intrinsic energetic and environmental sustainability: some types of polymeric materials, showing adequate perm-selectivity features, appear rather suitable for these applications, because of their relatively low cost and easy processability. In this work have been studied two different types of polymeric membranes, in view of possible applications to the gas separation processes, i.e. Mixed Matrix Membranes (MMMs) and high free volume glassy polymers. Since the early 90’s, it has been understood that the performances of polymeric materials in the field of gas separations show an upper bound in terms of permeability and selectivity: in particular, an increase of permeability is often accompanied by a decrease of selectivity and vice-versa, while several inorganic materials, like zeolites or silica derivates, can overcome this limitation. As a consequence, it has been developed the idea of dispersing inorganic particles in polymeric matrices, in order to obtain membranes with improved perm-selectivity features. In particular, dispersing fumed silica nanoparticles in high free volume glassy polymers improves in all the cases gases and vapours permeability, while the selectivity may either increase or decrease, depending upon material and gas mixture: that effect is due to the capacity of nanoparticles to disrupt the local chain packing, increasing the dimensions of excess free volume elements trapped in the polymer matrix. In this work different kinds of MMMs were fabricated using amorphous Teflon® AF or PTMSP and fumed silica: in all the cases, a considerable increase of solubility, diffusivity and permeability of gases and vapours (n-alkanes, CO2, methanol) was observed, while the selectivity shows a non-monotonous trend with filler fraction. Moreover, the classical models for composites are not able to capture the increase of transport properties due to the silica addition, so it has been necessary to develop and validate an appropriate thermodynamic model that allows to predict correctly the mass transport features of MMMs. In this work, another material, called poly-trimethylsilyl-norbornene (PTMSN) was examined: it is a new generation high free volume glassy polymer that, like PTMSP, shows unusual high permeability and selectivity levels to the more condensable vapours. These two polymer differ each other because PTMSN shows a more pronounced chemical stability, due to its structure double-bond free. For this polymer, a set of Lattice Fluid parameters was estimated, making possible a comparison between experimental and theoretical solubility isotherms for hydrocarbons and alcoholic vapours: the successfully modelling task, based on application of NELF model, offers a reliable alternative to direct sorption measurement, which is extremely time-consuming due to the relevant relaxation phenomena showed by each sorption step. For this material also dilation experiments were performed, in order to quantify its dimensional stability in presence of large size, swelling vapours.

Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.

I progetti di Oswald Mathias Ungers per la città di Treviri. Questioni di composizione architettonica

Abstract This PhD thesis focuses on two projects carried out by Oswald Mathias Ungers in the city of Trier. More specifi cally, this study focuses on the relationship between composition principles, architectural forms, historical context and the nature of the city where these buildings have been built. The works carried out by Ungers in Trier are unique experiences - if taken in this master’s works context - and each one of them refl ects - in its specifi c project and architectural composition theme - the results - in terms of design - of a complex research on the fundamentals of architecture carried out by Ungers in more than fi ve decades of his activity. The theoretical and compositional experiment aspect is one of the main subjects to defi ne these buildings in terms of architecture. This aspect is so crucial that it is possible to consider them as an example of radical and specifi c experiences, referred to a specifi c place and based on a specifi c theoretical corpus. More specifi cally, this study focuses on the design activity carried out by Ungers in this city, mainly between the 80s and 90s and in the fi rst decade of the 21st century. It puts forward an interpretation that does not only defi ne the essential features, elements and questions lying behind these two architectures, but fi rst and foremost analyzes the theoretical, methodological and compositional relationship between Ungers and Trier, his adopted city. An increasingly closer relationship between the architect and his city highlights the wider relationship network established between the place and the projects carried out by Ungers in this city and makes it possible to understand the importance of Trier in the work of this architect, in his education and in his way to see, think and make architecture. The projects analyzed - the Thermen am Forum Museum (1988-1996) and the Kaiserthermen entrance hall (2003-2007) - were analyzed in terms of their architectural composition in an attempt to highlight the poetry of these architectures and to fi nd out their progressive, rational - and therefore transmissible - character. This study is an attempt to assess and unveil the compositional themes characterizing these projects while detecting the compositional principles lying behind the works and verifying the design process through which such principles were translated into architecture. Looking at these works as architectural composition examples makes it possible to clarify Ungers’ hermeneutic relationship established with the city’s history and structure. More specifi cally, the main subject of this thesis is the relationship between the architect, his city and history in the architectural solutions offered by two exemplary case studies, which were both built and placed in the historical city center of Trier and both connected with the ancient core of the city. The Thermen am Forum Museum and the Kaiserthermen entrance hall projects are - though being developed at different times of Ungers’ architectural life and though being extremely different in terms of approach to their context, due to their architectural image - two works that can be compared with the historical heritage of the city and this makes them ideal examples of the relationship between architectural forms, history and environment.

Procedure e strumenti innovativi per lo sfruttamento sostenibile delle risorse minerarie

L'approvvigionamento di risorse minerali e la tutela dell'ambiente sono spesso considerate attività contrapposte ed inconciliabili, ma in realtà rappresentano due necessità imprescindibili per le società moderne. Le georisorse, in quanto non rinnovabili, devono essere valorizzate in maniera efficiente, adoperando strumenti che garantiscano la sostenibilità ambientale, sociale ed economica degli interventi estrattivi. La necessità di tutelare il territorio e migliorare la qualità della vita delle comunità locali impone alla Pubblica Amministrazione di implementare misure per la riqualificazione di aree degradate, ma fino ai primi anni '90 la normativa di settore non prevedeva strumenti a tal proposito, e ciò ha portato alla proliferazione di siti estrattivi dismessi e abbandonati senza interventi di recupero ambientale. Il presente lavoro di ricerca fornisce contributi innovativi alla pianificazione e progettazione sostenibile delle attività estrattive, attraverso l'adozione di un approccio multidisciplinare alla trattazione del tema e l'utilizzo esperto dei Sistemi Informativi Geografici, in particolare GRASS GIS. A seguito di una approfondita analisi in merito agli strumenti e le procedure adottate nella pianificazione delle Attività Estrattive in Italia, sono stati sviluppati un metodo di indagine ed un sistema esperto per la previsione ed il controllo delle vibrazioni indotte nel terreno da volate in cava a cielo aperto, che consentono di ottimizzare la progettazione della volata e del sistema di monitoraggio delle vibrazioni grazie a specifici strumenti operativi implementati in GRASS GIS. A supporto di una più efficace programmazione di interventi di riqualificazione territoriale, è stata messa a punto una procedura per la selezione di siti dismessi e di potenziali interventi di riqualificazione, che ottimizza le attività di pianificazione individuando interventi caratterizzati da elevata sostenibilità ambientale, economica e sociale. I risultati ottenuti dimostrano la necessità di un approccio esperto alla pianificazione ed alla progettazione delle attività estrattive, incrementandone la sostenibilità attraverso l'adozione di strumenti operativi più efficienti.

Authoring tools and management information systems: study of a generalizable architecture

The need to effectively manage the documentation covering the entire production process, from the concept phase right through to market realise, constitutes a key issue in the creation of a successful and highly competitive product. For almost forty years the most commonly used strategies to achieve this have followed Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) guidelines. Translated into information management systems at the end of the '90s, this methodology is now widely used by companies operating all over the world in many different sectors. PLM systems and editor programs are the two principal types of software applications used by companies for their process aotomation. Editor programs allow to store in documents the information related to the production chain, while the PLM system stores and shares this information so that it can be used within the company and made it available to partners. Different software tools, which capture and store documents and information automatically in the PLM system, have been developed in recent years. One of them is the ''DirectPLM'' application, which has been developed by the Italian company ''Focus PLM''. It is designed to ensure interoperability between many editors and the Aras Innovator PLM system. In this dissertation we present ''DirectPLM2'', a new version of the previous software application DirectPLM. It has been designed and developed as prototype during the internship by Focus PLM. Its new implementation separates the abstract logic of business from the real commands implementation, previously strongly dependent on Aras Innovator. Thanks to its new design, Focus PLM can easily develop different versions of DirectPLM2, each one devised for a specific PLM system. In fact, the company can focus the development effort only on a specific set of software components which provides specialized functions interacting with that particular PLM system. This allows shorter Time-To-Market and gives the company a significant competitive advantage.

La città ready-made. Partecipazione, relazione e azione nel ‘900

La città ready-made. Partecipazione, relazione e azione nel ‘900 è un percorso storico-critico che si snoda lungo tutto il ‘900 alla ricerca degli episodi in cui è possibile riscontrare la partecipazione nelle pratiche estetiche di diverse generazioni di artisti; per imbastire un racconto puntuale e sistematico, inoltre, si è ricorsi ad una metafora genetica che ha riscontrato una fase — corrispondente alla prima metà del secolo — in cui il cromosoma responsabile di tale afflato partecipativo è risultato recessivo e un’altra — corrispondente stavolta alla seconda metà, più o meno dagli anni ’60 ai ’90 — in cui si è potuto registrare, altresì, una dominanza. Ad influire su questi fenomeni e sul loro svolgimento nei decenni, i protagonisti assoluti di questa trattazione: la Città e il Pubblico che, di volta in volta, facendo sentire la loro presenza o facendola venir meno, hanno dettato l’agenda della socio-relazionalità nel ‘900. Si è, inoltre, provveduto a rileggere alcuni episodi estetici al fine di evidenziarne un andamento ciclico e di ripetizione: mentre nella prima metà della ricerca si è scovato il seme della socio-relazionalità nelle visite e nelle derive di dadaisti e situazionisti, nella seconda ci si è concentrati sull’ampia produzione dei collettivi artistici di New York negli anni ’70. A dimostrazione di come la relazionalità non sia un fenomeno esclusivamente legato alla pratica dell’arte degli anni ’90, ma che, con le opportune distinzioni generazionali, è possibile riscontrarne le tracce in tutta la contemporaneità.

La strage di Ustica nell'opinione pubblica italiana (1980-1992): analisi di un caso politico e mediatico

Questa ricerca indaga come il “caso Ustica” si è articolato nell’opinione pubblica italiana negli anni compresi tra il 1980 e il 1992. Con l'espressione “caso Ustica” ci si riferisce al problema politico determinato dalle vicende legate all’abbattimento dell’aereo civile DC-9 dell’Itavia, avvenuto il 27 giugno 1980 in circostanze che, come noto, furono chiarite solamente a distanza di molti anni dal fatto. L’analisi intende cogliere le specificità del processo che ha portato la vicenda di Ustica ad acquisire rilevanza politica nell’ambito della sfera pubblica italiana, in particolare prendendo in considerazione il ruolo svolto dall’opinione pubblica in un decennio, quale quello degli anni ’80 e dei primi anni ’90 italiani, caratterizzato da una nuova centralità dei media rispetto alla sfera politica. Attraverso l’analisi di un’ampia selezione di fonti a stampa (circa 1500 articoli dei principali quotidiani italiani e circa 700 articoli tratti dagli organi dei partiti politici italiani) si sono pertanto messe in luce le dinamiche mediatiche e politiche che hanno portato alla tematizzazione di una vicenda che era rimasta fino al 1986 totalmente assente dall’agenda politica nazionale. L’analisi delle fonti giudiziarie ha permesso inoltre di verificare come la politicizzazione del caso Ustica, costruita intorno alla tensione opacità/trasparenza del potere politico e all’efficace quanto banalizzante paradigma delle “stragi di Stato”, sia risultata funzionale al raggiungimento, dopo il 1990, dei primi elementi di verità sulla tragedia e all’ampiamento del caso a una dimensione internazionale.

Essays on credit rating agencies and the assessment of sovereign risk

Sovereign ratings have only recently regained attention in the academic debate. This seems to be somewhat surprising against the background that their influence is well-known and that rating decisions have often been criticized in the past (as for example during the Asian crisis in the 90s). Sovereign ratings do not only assess the creditworthiness of governments: They are also included in the calculation of ratings for sub-sovereign issuers whereby their rating is usually restricted to the upper bound of the sovereign rating (sovereign ceiling). Earlier studies have also shown that the downgrade of a sovereign often leads to contagion effects on neighbor countries. This study focuses first on misleading incentives in the rating industry before chapter three summarizes the literature on the influence and determinants of sovereign ratings. The fourth chapter explores empirically how ratings respond to changes in sovereign debt across specific country groups. The fifth part focuses on single rating decisions of four selected rating agencies and investigates whether the timing of decisions gives reason for herding behavior. The final chapter presents a reform proposal for the future regulation of the rating industry in light of the aforementioned flaws.rn

The management of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms: screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm and incidence of rupture

Twenty-five years have passed since the first randomised controlled trial began its recruitment for screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in men aged 65 and above. Since this and other randomised trials, all launched in the late 80s and 90s of the last century, the epidemiologic profile of abdominal aortic aneurysm may have changed. The trials reported an AAA prevalence in the range of 4-7% for men aged 65 years or more. AAA-related mortality was significantly improved by screening, and after 13 years, the largest trial showed a benefit for all-cause mortality. Screening also was shown to be cost-effective. Today, there are studies showing a substantial decrease of AAA prevalence to sometimes less than 2% in men aged ≥ 65 years and there is evidence that the incidence of ruptured aneurysm and mortality from AAA is also declining. This decline preceded the implementation of screening programmes but may be due to a change in risk factor management. The prevalence of smoking has decreased and there has been improvement in the control of hypertension and a rising use of statins for cardiovascular risk prevention. Additionally, there is a shift of the burden to the older age group of ≥ 75 years. Such radical changes may influence screening policy and it is worth reflecting on the optimum age of screening - it might be better to screen at ages >65 years - or rescreening 5 to 10 years after the first screen.

Democratic Transition and Political Patronage

Mr. Korosenyi begins by analysing the particular relationship holding between politics and administration in different countries. Within Europe three major patterns have emerged in the 20th century. Firstly there is the politically neutral British Civil Service, secondly the German and French state bureaucracies, which traditionally are supposed to embody the "common good", and thirdly there is the patronage system of the so-called consociate democracies, e.g. Austria. In general Mr. Korosenyi believes that, though politics do not penetrate into the Hungarian administration to the extent they do in Belgium and Austria, nevertheless, there is a stronger fusion than there is in the traditional British pattern. He is particularly interested in this relationship with regard to its effect on democratic institution building and the stabilisation of the new regime in Hungary, now the old "nomenklatura" system has been abolished. The structure of the Hungarian government was a result of the constitutional amendments of 1989 and 1990. Analysing this period, it becomes clear that for all the political actors who initiated and supported the democratic transition to democracy, the underlying assumption was a radical depoliticisation of the administration in order to maintain its stability. The political leadership of the executive is a cabinet government. The government is structured along ministries, each headed by a politician, i.e. the minister, who is a member of the cabinet. The minister's political secretary is not a cabinet member, but he or she is a politician, usually a member of the parliament. The head of the administration of the ministry is the administrative state secretary, who is a civil servant. He or she usually has four deputies, also civil servants. Naturally it is assumed that there should be a clear separation between politicians and civil servants. However in practice, the borders can be blurred, giving rise to a hybrid known as the "political civil servant". Mr. Korosenyi analyses the different faces of these hybrids. They are civil servants for the following reasons. They need special educational qualifications, working experience, a civil service exam etc., they are not allowed to do anything which is incompatible with their impartial role, and they cannot occupy political office nor may they appear in the name of any political party. On the other hand, the accepted political dimension to their function is revealed by the following facts. The state secretary (a civil servant) may participate in cabinet meetings instead of the minister. The state secretary is employed by the minister. A state secretary or any of their deputies can be dismissed at any time by the minister or the prime minister. In practice then, ministers appoint to these senior administrative positions civil servants whose personal and political loyaties are strong. To the second level of political patronage in ministries belong the ministerial cabinet, press office and public relation office. The ministerial cabinet includes the private advisors and members of the personal staff of the minister. The press office and the PR office, if they exist, are not adjusted to the administrative hierarchy of the ministry, but under the direct control of the minister. In the beginning of the 1990s, such offices were exceptions; in the second half of the 90s they are accepted and to be found in most ministries. Mr. Korosenyi's work, a 92-page manuscript of a book in Hungarian, marks the first piece of literature within the field of political science which analyses the structure of the Hungarian government in the 1990s and the relationship between the political leadership and the public administration.

Central Europeans towards Integration with the European Union: A Study of Public Opinion, Social Attitudes and National Identities

Since the turbulence of 1989, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have striven to "return to Europe". Agreements have been signed with ten post-communist countries, beginning in 1991 with Czechoslovakia (before its division), Hungary and Poland. Since that time several countries have expressed a desire to become members of the EU. In 1997 the European Commission announced its opinion on the applications for EU membership of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and seven other applicant countries. The Commission recommended the commencement of negotiations on accession with the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia. Mr. Kucia's report, presented in the form of a series of manuscripts totalling 91 pages, written in English and Polish and including many pages of tables and graphs, presents the results of a study of public opinion on European integration in four countries of Central Europe (CE): the Czech Republic (CZ), Hungary (H), Poland (PL), and Slovakia (SK). The research results are primarily based on a public-opinion survey known as the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer (CEEB). CEEB has been conducted on behalf of the European Commission in the Central and Eastern European countries each year in autumn since 1990. Below is a very small selection of Mr. Kucia's research findings. Throughout the 90s people in the four countries increasingly saw their countries' future tied up with the EU, since economic and political connections to the EU were growing and prospects for EU membership were increasing. Regional co-operation within CE did not gain much popular recognition. However, initially high levels of enthusiasm for the EU were gradually superseded by a more realistic approach or even scepticism. Poland was the exception in this respect; its population was more positive about the EU in 1996 than ever before. Mr. Kucia concludes that, since the political "elites" in CE are more positive about the EU than the people they serve, they should do their best to bring people round to their beliefs, lest the project of European integration become purely the business of the elites, as Mr. Kucia claims it has been in the EU up till now. He accuses the governments of the region, the EU authorities and the media of failing to provide appropriate information, especially about the two subjects which most affect them, association with the EU and the PHARE assistance programme. Respondents were asked to rank in order the countries or regions they saw their country's future most closely tied up with. In the period 92-96 the EU received the highest ratings in all of CE. The ratings were highest in CZ in 92 and 93 (46%) and in Poland in 96 (46%). They were the lowest in Hungary (22% in 94). After the EU came "Other Western European countries (non EU)", that is Austria, Sweden and Finland (before they joined the EU in 1995), Switzerland and Norway. Mr. Kucia puts the high ratings of these countries down to historical connections and geographical proximity, particularly in the case of Austria. The USA always came second in Poland, and in Hungary too its standing has always been higher than in CZ or SK. Indeed Mr. Kucia suggests that the USA's standing is disproportionately low in especially the CZ. Germany was nominated frequently by Hungarians, though in the CZ and SK, figures have been consistently low (1-2%). "Other CE/EE countries" increased their ratings in all of CE except Poland between 92 and 96. With regard to these last figures, Mr. Kucia makes an interesting note. Assuming that for the respondents in the four countries this category covered the Visegrad 4, least support was found in Poland, whose government was the most in favour of close political co-operation within the V4, while most support was in evidence in CZ and SK, for whose governments V4 was simply not a priority. Again, there is evidence of a divide between the political elites and the people. Russia has occupied a consistently modest rank. It was the highest in PL, fairly low in H and SK and the lowest in CZ. The Slovak government's policy of closer ties with Russia is reflected in a growth in the figures from 2% in 93 to 6% in 95. Every year the spontaneous answer "we should depend on ourselves" appeared, which Mr. Kucia interprets as either a sign of isolationism and disillusionment or as a call for self-reliance. Unfortunately he regards both these tendencies as unfeasible in the uniting Europe. Moving to more general conclusions, Mr. Kucia finds that the concept "Central Europe" does not have much meaning for Central Europeans. He believes that this is probably due to the failure to establish a viable regional co-operation network. Group discussions also revealed that people thought themselves European as a consequence of being Czech or Polish etc. Thus European identity is based on national identities. Generally within the surveyed period, the numbers of those who said they often think themselves European decreased, while the numbers of those who said they never think themselves European increased from 41% in PL, 36% in CZ, and 30% in H in 1990, to 67% in CZ, 58% in PL, and 51% in H in 1995.

Different levels of policy change: A comparison between the public discussion on social security in Sweden and in Finland

The deep economic recession that hit Sweden and Finland at the beginning of the 90s, and the fall in public revenues and rapidly growing public debts that followed on it, triggered a development of cutbacks and restructuring measures which has resulted in a scientific debate over what this has meant for these countries’ systems of social policy, traditionally resting on the Nordic welfare state paradigm. In this connection, questions of to what extent changes made can be ascribed mainly to the economic constraints posed by the recession at all, or rather, to other more long-term societal trends or phenomena, including globalisation, European integration and/or ideational or ideological shifts among influential (elite) groups, have often been touched upon. Applying an ideas-centred approach, this paper attempts to contribute to the knowledge on the reasoning of influential elite societal groups in social policy issues before, during and after the 90’s recession, by empirically analysing their statements on social security made in the press. A distinction is made between three different levels of proposed policy changes, reaching from minor alterations of single programs to changes of the policy paradigm. Results show that the 1990s did not only mean the emergence of suggestions for minor cutbacks in and alterations of prevailing programmes. The share of suggestions implying de facto a (further) departure from the basic features of the social security system also showed that the model was under continuous pressure throughout the 90s. However, many of the changes suggested were not justified by any clear references to a policy paradigm in either country (or not justified at all). Instead, references to “purely” structural justifications did become more common over time. In this respect, as regards social security, our results cannot confirm the fairly popular notion among many researchers of a clearly ideological attack on the welfare state. However, it remains uncertain whether and to what extent the increased proportion of references to “structural realities” in the 90s should be interpreted as an indication of a change in the idea of what the welfare state is and what the goals behind it are. Results further show that the patterns of the discussion in the two countries studied bore a remarkable resemblance at a general level, whereas there are indications of differences in the driving forces behind suggestions for similar reforms in these two countries.