Energy subsidies from a climate and trade perspective

A short paper for dissemination based on a research piece published by the E15Initiative: Subsidies, Clean Energy, and Climate Change, February 2015. Implemented jointly by ICTSD and the World Economic Forum, the E15Initiative convenes world-class experts and institutions to generate strategic analysis and recommendations for government, business, and civil society geared towards strengthening the global trade and investment system. The paper is also published in Spanish and Portuguese.

Climate and grazing control nurse effects in an Ecuadorian dry shrubby community

Positive plant interactions have strong effects on plant diversity at several spatial scales, expanding species distribution under stressful conditions. We evaluated the joint effect of climate and grazing on the nurse effect of Croton wagneri, by monitoring several community attributes at two spatial scales: microhabitat and plant community. Two very close locations that only differed in grazing intensity were surveyed in an Ecuadorian dry scrub ecosystem. At each location, two 30 × 30-m plots were established at four altitudinal levels (1500, 2630, 1959 and 2100 m asl) and 40 microsites were surveyed in each plot. Croton wagneri acted as community hubs, increasing species richness and plant cover at both scales. Beneath nurses mean richness and cover values were 3.4 and 21.9%, and in open areas 2.3 and 4.5%, respectively. Magnitude of nurse effect was dependent on climate and grazing conditions. In ungrazed locations, cover increased and diversity reduced with altitude, while grazed locations showed the opposite trend. In ungrazed plots the interactions shifted from positive to negative with altitude, in grazed locations interactions remained positive. We conclude that the nurse effect is a key mechanism regulating community properties not only at microsite but also at the entire community scale.

Climate and infectious disease: Use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement

It has long been known that cholera outbreaks can be initiated when Vibrio cholerae, the bacterium that causes cholera, is present in drinking water in sufficient numbers to constitute an infective dose, if ingested by humans. Outbreaks associated with drinking or bathing in unpurified river or brackish water may directly or indirectly depend on such conditions as water temperature, nutrient concentration, and plankton production that may be favorable for growth and reproduction of the bacterium. Although these environmental parameters have routinely been measured by using water samples collected aboard research ships, the available data sets are sparse and infrequent. Furthermore, shipboard data acquisition is both expensive and time-consuming. Interpolation to regional scales can also be problematic. Although the bacterium, V. cholerae, cannot be sensed directly, remotely sensed data can be used to infer its presence. In the study reported here, satellite data were used to monitor the timing and spread of cholera. Public domain remote sensing data for the Bay of Bengal were compared directly with cholera case data collected in Bangladesh from 1992–1995. The remote sensing data included sea surface temperature and sea surface height. It was discovered that sea surface temperature shows an annual cycle similar to the cholera case data. Sea surface height may be an indicator of incursion of plankton-laden water inland, e.g., tidal rivers, because it was also found to be correlated with cholera outbreaks. The extensive studies accomplished during the past 25 years, confirming the hypothesis that V. cholerae is autochthonous to the aquatic environment and is a commensal of zooplankton, i.e., copepods, when combined with the findings of the satellite data analyses, provide strong evidence that cholera epidemics are climate-linked.

Airborne minerals and related aerosol particles: Effects on climate and the environment

Aerosol particles are ubiquitous in the troposphere and exert an important influence on global climate and the environment. They affect climate through scattering, transmission, and absorption of radiation as well as by acting as nuclei for cloud formation. A significant fraction of the aerosol particle burden consists of minerals, and most of the remainder— whether natural or anthropogenic—consists of materials that can be studied by the same methods as are used for fine-grained minerals. Our emphasis is on the study and character of the individual particles. Sulfate particles are the main cooling agents among aerosols; we found that in the remote oceanic atmosphere a significant fraction is aggregated with soot, a material that can diminish the cooling effect of sulfate. Our results suggest oxidization of SO2 may have occurred on soot surfaces, implying that even in the remote marine troposphere soot provided nuclei for heterogeneous sulfate formation. Sea salt is the dominant aerosol species (by mass) above the oceans. In addition to being important light scatterers and contributors to cloud condensation nuclei, sea-salt particles also provide large surface areas for heterogeneous atmospheric reactions. Minerals comprise the dominant mass fraction of the atmospheric aerosol burden. As all geologists know, they are a highly heterogeneous mixture. However, among atmospheric scientists they are commonly treated as a fairly uniform group, and one whose interaction with radiation is widely assumed to be unpredictable. Given their abundances, large total surface areas, and reactivities, their role in influencing climate will require increased attention as climate models are refined.

Climate and Terrain Characteristics Linked to Mud Ejection Occurrence in the Canadian High Arctic

Pressurised slurries of fine-grained sediment expelled from the base of the active layer have been observed in recent years in the High Arctic. Such mud ejections, however, are poorly understood in terms of how exactly climate and landscape factors determine when and where they occur. Mud ejections at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Nunavut, were systematically mapped in 2012 and 2013, and this was combined with observations of mud ejection activity and climatic measurements carried out since 2003. The mud ejections occur late in the melt season during warm years and closely following major rainfall events. High-resolution satellite imagery demonstrates that mud ejections are associated with polar semi-desert vegetative settings, flat or low-sloping terrain and south-facing slopes. The localised occurrence of mud ejections appears to be related to differential soil moisture retention.

The New EU Climate and Energy Package: Passing the test? CEPS Commentary, 6 January 2014

On 22 January 2014, the European Commission is expected to publish the proposals for the 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies, which will be discussed and possibly – or maybe, partly – agreed during the 20-21 March 2014 European Council. This is the first comprehensive review of the 2007-09 Climate and Energy Package, which resulted in the so-called ‘20-20-20’ targets by 2020. The principal intention is to define the EU’s climate change and energy policy framework for the next decade and beyond to give investors an adequate amount of predictability if not certainty. This Commentary argues, however, that the ‘2030 Framework’ is not just about predictability; it is also about making the proper adjustments based on the lessons learned and also in response to new issues that have emerged in the interim. The authors ask what the main lessons are and how they should influence the 2030 Framework. Or put differently, what are the conditions that the “2030 Framework” will need to meet in order to offer a viable package for discussion?

The 2030 framework on climate and energy - Getting Europe on the right track? EPC Commentary, 30 January 2014

Climate vs competitiveness? The European Commission published its proposal on the 2030 climate and energy framework on 22 January. Reflective of the current economic climate, it was accompanied by a report on energy prices and the Commission decided not to propose regulation on shale gas but to issue recommendations on environmental standards. The same day also saw the publication of a communication “For a European Industrial Renaissance”. Climate considerations no longer drive the agenda. The enthusiasm of 2007, when the “20/20/20” climate and energy targets were set for 2020, has diminished. The new reality has brought competitiveness to the top of the EU’s priority agenda.

EU climate and energy policy: hope for more and better climate policy integration? IES Policy Brief Issue 2014/02/January 2014

Summary. With discussions on-going in the EU on the climate and energy policy framework to 2030, it is timely to assess the reality of climate policy integration into EU energy policy. Such an analysis can lead to lessons for the legislative process for the 2030 package, and even for policies in other sectors and beyond 2030. Climate change is a complex, crosscutting, long-term and global problem. Policymakers acknowledge that integrating climate policy objectives into the elaboration and agreement of measures in other sectors represents one method for striving towards coherent policies that respond adequately to the climate change problem. This policy brief presents the results and policy recommendations from the project “climate policy integration into EU energy policy”.

Re-designing the European Climate and Energy policies post-2020. European Policy Brief No. 29, March 2014

Ensuring the sustainability, security and cost-competitiveness of energy supplies for the EU citizens are the main objectives of the EU climate and energy policy, which remains high on the EU agenda. The next European legislature will have the difficult task to reconcile these different objectives into a comprehensive 2030 framework for climate and energy policies. Taking into account the changing energy dynamics, this paper analyses thus the state of play of these objectives today in order to better understand how the 2030 framework for climate and energy policies should be designed.

EU Climate and Energy Governance: There’s more to it than meets the eye. CEPS Commentary, 14 July 2015

In this new CEPS Commentary, a team of climate and energy specialists argue that a reliable system of climate and energy governance in the EU would certainly need to go beyond the issues that are identified in the 2030 framework for climate and energy and the Energy Union. In their view, such a system would consist of no less than seven complex areas, which they proceed to outline and discuss their interrelationships. To ensure that these areas are dealt with in an integrated manner, they recommend that the European Commission creates a roadmap – possibly in the form of a Communication – that would indicate the direction, interactions and a timeline for their adoption.

Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.

How Climate and Vegetation Influence the fire Regime of the Alaskan Boreal Biome: The Holocene Perspective

We synthesize recent results from lake-sediment studies of Holocene fire-climate-vegetation interactions in Alaskan boreal ecosystems. At the millennial time scale, the most robust feature of these records is an increase in fire occurrence with the establishment of boreal forests dominated by Picea mariana: estimated mean fire-return intervals decreased from ≥300 yrs to as low as ∼80 yrs. This fire-vegetation relationship occurred at all sites in interior Alaska with charcoal-based fire reconstructions, regardless of the specific time of P. mariana arrival during the Holocene. The establishment of P. mariana forests was associated with a regional climatic trend toward cooler/wetter conditions. Because such climatic change should not directly enhance fire occurrence, the increase in fire frequency most likely reflects the influence of highly flammable P. mariana forests, which are more conducive to fire ignition and spread than the preceding vegetation types (tundra, and woodlands/forests dominated by Populus or Picea glauca). Increased lightning associated with altered atmospheric circulation may have also played a role in certain areas where fire frequency increased around 4000 calibrated years before present (BP) without an apparent increase in the abundance of P. mariana. When viewed together, the paleo-fire records reveal that fire histories differed among sites in the same modern fire regime and that the fire regime and plant community similar to those of today became established at different times. Thus the spatial array of regional fire regimes was non-static through the Holocene. However, the patterns and causes of the spatial variation remain largely unknown. Advancing our understanding of climate-fire-vegetation interactions in the Alaskan boreal biome will require a network of charcoal records across various ecoregions, quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions, and improved knowledge of how sedimentary charcoal records fire events.

Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.