Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Design, development and assessment of the Java Intelligent Tutoring System

The "Java Intelligent Tutoring System" (JITS) research project focused on designing, constructing, and determining the effectiveness of an Intelligent Tutoring System for beginner Java programming students at the postsecondary level. The participants in this research were students in the School of Applied Computing and Engineering Sciences at Sheridan College. This research involved consistently gathering input from students and instructors using JITS as it developed. The cyclic process involving designing, developing, testing, and refinement was used for the construction of JITS to ensure that it adequately meets the needs of students and instructors. The second objective in this dissertation determined the effectiveness of learning within this environment. The main findings indicate that JITS is a richly interactive ITS that engages students on Java programming problems. JITS is equipped with a sophisticated personalized feedback mechanism that models and supports each student in his/her learning style. The assessment component involved 2 main quantitative experiments to determine the effectiveness of JITS in terms of student performance. In both experiments it was determined that a statistically significant difference was achieved between the control group and the experimental group (i.e., JITS group). The main effect for Test (i.e., pre- and postiest), F( l , 35) == 119.43,p < .001, was qualified by a Test by Group interaction, F( l , 35) == 4.98,p < .05, and a Test by Time interaction, F( l , 35) == 43.82, p < .001. Similar findings were found for the second experiment; Test by Group interaction revealed F( 1 , 92) == 5.36, p < .025. In both experiments the JITS groups outperformed the corresponding control groups at posttest.

EXPLORING THE DEVELOPMENT AND PSYCHOSOCIAL CORRELATES OF SPIRITUALITY /RELIGIOSITY ACROSS ADOLESCENCE

The goal of the four studies that comprised this dissertation was to examine how spirituality/religiosity (SIR), as both an institutional and personal phenomenon, developed over time, and how its institutional (i.e., religious activity involvement) and personal (i.e., sense of connection with the sacred) components were uniquely linked with psychosocial adjustment. In Study 1, the differential longitudinal correlates of religious service attendance, as compared to involvement in other clubs, were evaluated with a sample of adolescents (n=1050) who completed a survey in grades 9, 11 and 12. Religious attendance and involvement in non-religious clubs were uniquely associated with positive adjustment in terms of lower substance use and better academic marks, particularly when involvement was sustained over time. In Study 2, the direction of effects was tested for the association between religious versus non-religious activities and both substance use and academic marks. Participants (n= 3993) were surveyed in grades 9 through 12. Higher religious attendance (but not non-religious club involvement) in one grade predicted lower levels of substance use in the next grade. Higher levels of nonreligious club involvement (but not religious service attendance) in one grade predicted higher academic achievement in the next grade, and higher academic achievement in one grade predicted more frequent non-religious club involvement in the next grade. The results suggest that different assets may be fostered in religious as compared to nonreligious activities, and, specifically, religious activity involvement may be important for the avoidance of substance use. The goal of Study 3 was to assess the unique associations between the institutional versus personal dimensions of SIR and a wide range of domains of psychosocial adjustment (namely, intrapersonal well-being, substance use, risk attitudes, parental relationship quality, academic orientation, and club involvement), and to examine the direction of effects in these associations. Participants (n=756) completed a survey in grades 11 and 12. Personal and institutional dimensions of SIR were differentially associated with adjustment, but it may only be in the domain of risk-taking (Le., risk attitudes, substance use) that SIR may predict positive adjustment over time. Finally, in Study 4, the goal was to examine how institutional and personal aspects of SIR developed within individual adolescents. Configurations of mUltiple dimensions of spirituality/religiosity were identified across 2 time points with an empirical classification procedure (cluster analysis), and sample- and individual-level development in these configurations were assessed. A five cluster-solution was optimal at both grades. Clusters were identified as aspirituallirreligious, disconnected wonderers, high institutional and personal, primarily personal, and meditators. With the exception of the high institutional and personal cluster, the cluster structures were stable over time. There also was significant intraindividual stability in all clusters over time; however, a significant proportion of individuals classified as high institutional and personal in Grade 11 moved into the primarily personal cluster in Grade 12. This program of research represented an important step towards addressing some of the limitations within the body of literature; namely, the uniqueness of religious activity involvement as a structured club, the differential link between institutional versus personal SIR and psychosocial adjustment, the direction of effects in the associations between institutional versus personal SIR and adjustment, and the way in which different dimensions of SIR may be configured and develop within individual adolescents over time.

HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT- Sustainable Physical Activity Program Development and Evaluation for Youth with Special Needs: An Evaluative Case Study

The purpose of my research was to contribute to the improvement and sustainability of the Special Needs Activity Program, and develop program implementation strategies that had practical outcomes. I conducted an evaluative case study of S.N.A.P in order to determine what a quality adapted physical activity (APA) program is, why S.N.A.P is considered a quality APA program, and what institutional policies and practices exist to support it. Data was collected via interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Data analysis involved inductive and deductive methods, and a SWOTAR evaluation. Results indicate that quality APA programs include: ‘people’, ‘environment’, and ‘expectations’; there are benefits of experiential learning; activity stations that promote creativity are valuable; several stakeholders do not know the details about S.N.A.P but recognize its value; the institution values what S.N.A.P provides, yet, there is nothing being done to sustain it. Future research should investigate the feasibility of implementing S.N.A.P in various contexts.

Noticeability of corrective feedback, L2 development and learner beliefs

Cette étude quasi-expérimentale a pour but de 1) comparer la prise en compte et les effets de trois conditions rétroactives, à savoir la reformulation, l’incitation et un mélange des deux techniques, 2) déterminer le lien entre la prise en compte et l’apprentissage, et 3) identifier l’effet des perceptions des apprenants quant à la rétroaction corrective sur la prise en compte et l’apprentissage. Quatre groupes d’apprenants d’anglais langue seconde ainsi que leurs enseignants provenant d’un CEGEP francophone de l’île de Montréal ont participé à cette étude. Chaque enseignant a été assigné à une condition rétroactive expérimentale qui correspondait le plus à ses pratiques rétroactives habituelles. La chercheure a assuré l’intervention auprès du groupe contrôle. L’utilisation du passé et de la phrase interrogative était ciblée durant l’intervention expérimentale. Des protocoles de pensée à haute voie ainsi qu’un questionnaire ont été utilisés pour mesurer la prise en compte de la rétroaction corrective. Des tâches de description d’images et d’identification des différences entre les images ont été administrées avant l’intervention (pré-test), immédiatement après l’intervention (post-test immédiat) et 8 semaines plus tard (post-test différé) afin d’évaluer les effets des différentes conditions rétroactives sur l’apprentissage des formes cibles. Un questionnaire a été administré pour identifier les perceptions des apprenants quant à la rétroaction corrective. En termes de prise en compte, les résultats indiquent que les participants sont en mesure de remarquer la rétroaction dépendamment de la forme cible (les erreurs dans l’utilisation du passé sont détectées plus que les erreurs d’utilisation de la phrase interrogative) et de la technique rétroactive utilisée (l’incitation et le mélange d’incitation et de reformulations sont plus détectés plus que la reformulation). En ce qui a trait à l’apprentissage, l’utilisation du passé en général est marquée par plus de développement que celle de la phrase interrogative, mais il n'y avait aucune différence entre les groupes. Le lien direct entre la prise en compte et l’apprentissage ne pouvait pas être explicitement établi. Pendant que la statistique inférentielle a suggéré une relation minimale entre la prise en compte du passé et son apprentissage, mais aucune relation entre la prise en compte de la phrase interrogative et son apprentissage, les analyses qualitatives ont montrés à une association entre la prise en compte et l’apprentissage (sur les deux cibles) pour certains étudiants et augmentations sans prise en compte pour d'autres. Finalement, l’analyse factorielle du questionnaire indique la présence de quatre facteurs principaux, à savoir l’importance de la rétroaction corrective, la reformulation, l’incitation et les effets affectifs de la rétroaction. Deux de ces facteurs ont un effet modérateur sur la prise en compte de la rétroaction sans, toutefois, avoir d’impact sur l’apprentissage.

Cell Culture Systems from Penaeus monodon: Development and Application

National Centre for Aquatic Animal Health, Cochin University of Science and Technology

"A Study Of The Performance Of The "Jeevan Saathi" And "Jeevan Mitra” Policies Offered By The L.I.C."

The main benefit of Jeevan Saathi policy is that, it is a joint life policy which covers the life of both husband and wife under a single policy. And they also get double benefit if any one of them dies during the term of the policy. The Jeevan Mitra policy is a single life policy, the main advantage of which is that the dependents get double benefit in case of normal death and triple benefit in case of accidental death during the term of policy. so both the policies have their own attractions but when compared with the annual sales of other policies, the additional increase in the sales of these policies are decreasing. It is a fact finding study concerned with market performance of these two policies by conducting a survey among the Jeevan Saathi and Jeevan Mitra policy holders, and a thorough analysis of the various information or data collected from them. This study is an attempt to present an integrated picture of the main features of the policy holders who have bought these policies, the major factors responsible for making them purchase these policies, the various difficulties faced by them at present and further modification needed in the plans of these policies according to the opinion of policy holders. For increasing accuracy of the conclusions, information is also collected from Agents and Development Officers by using interview schedule. The main purpose of this study is to draw attention of LIC to introduce new plans of policies taking into consideration the drawbacks or defects of the existing policies and present needs of policy holders. It will also help to make new plans in order to suit the needs of more people who want to buy life insurance policies

Development and Validation of Bacterial Consortia for Bioremediation of Detritus in Aquaculture Systems

Cochin University Of Science And Technology

Profile simulations of gas chopping etching processes : model development and comparison with experiments

The progress in microsystem technology or nano technology places extended requirements to the fabrication processes. The trend is moving towards structuring within the nanometer scale on the one hand, and towards fabrication of structures with high aspect ratio (ratio of vertical vs. lateral dimensions) and large depths in the 100 µm scale on the other hand. Current procedures for the microstructuring of silicon are wet chemical etching and dry or plasma etching. A modern plasma etching technique for the structuring of silicon is the so-called "gas chopping" etching technique (also called "time-multiplexed etching"). In this etching technique, passivation cycles, which prevent lateral underetching of sidewalls, and etching cycles, which etch preferably in the vertical direction because of the sidewall passivation, are constantly alternated during the complete etching process. To do this, a CHF3/CH4 plasma, which generates CF monomeres is employed during the passivation cycle, and a SF6/Ar, which generates fluorine radicals and ions plasma is employed during the etching cycle. Depending on the requirements on the etched profile, the durations of the individual passivation and etching cycles are in the range of a few seconds up to several minutes. The profiles achieved with this etching process crucially depend on the flow of reactants, i.e. CF monomeres during the passivation cycle, and ions and fluorine radicals during the etching cycle, to the bottom of the profile, especially for profiles with high aspect ratio. With regard to the predictability of the etching processes, knowledge of the fundamental effects taking place during a gas chopping etching process, and their impact onto the resulting profile is required. For this purpose in the context of this work, a model for the description of the profile evolution of such etching processes is proposed, which considers the reactions (etching or deposition) at the sample surface on a phenomenological basis. Furthermore, the reactant transport inside the etching trench is modelled, based on angular distribution functions and on absorption probabilities at the sidewalls and bottom of the trench. A comparison of the simulated profiles with corresponding experimental profiles reveals that the proposed model reproduces the experimental profiles, if the angular distribution functions and absorption probabilities employed in the model is in agreement with data found in the literature. Therefor the model developed in the context of this work is an adequate description of the effects taking place during a gas chopping plasma etching process.

Rural households’ social capital and welfare: A case study of Msinga, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

In a household or nations production system, social capital has been recognized as an input having major implications for project design as well as policy development. Using a structured questionnaire, household level data was obtained from a representative sample of 300 rural households in Msinga, KwaZulu-Natal. This study employed the conventional household economic behaviour model under constrained utility maximisation to examine the effect of social capital on the welfare of household, testing the hypothesis that the possession of social capital improves household welfare. The result shows that social capital endowments have a statistically significant positive effect on household welfare, in addition to the some household’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The study concluded that, access to social capital among other factors, is very crucial for improved rural household welfare and poverty reduction. It is therefore important for government to have knowledge of existing social groups and networks as this will improve the effectiveness of the present strategies aimed at reducing poverty.

Rebellion, repression and welfare

I develop a dynamic model of social conflict whereby manifest grievances of the poor generate the incentive of taking over political power violently. Rebellion can be an equilibrium outcome depending on the level of preexisting inequality between the poor and the ruling elite, the relative military capabilities of the two groups and the destructiveness of conflict. Once a technology of repression is introduced, widespread fear reduces the parameter space for which rebellion is an equilibrium outcome. However, I show that repression driven peace comes at a cost as it produces a welfare loss to society.

Development and cross-national validation of the Emotional Effort Scale (EEF)

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Effect of Temperature on the Development and Survival of the Argentine Ant, Linepithema humile

The influence of temperature on the developmental times and survival of insects can largely determine their distribution. For invasive species, like the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), these data are essential for predicting their potential range based on mechanistic models. In the case of this species, such data are too scarce and incomplete to make accurate predictions based on its physiological needs. This research provides comprehensive new data about brood survival and developmental times at a wide range of temperatures under laboratory conditions. Temperature affected both the complete brood development from egg to adult worker and each of the immature stages separately. The higher the temperature, the shorter the development times. Brood survival from egg to adult was low, with the maximum survival rate being only 16% at 26º C. Temperature also affected survival of each of the immature stages differently: eggs were negatively affected by high temperatures, while larvae were negatively affected by low temperatures, and the survival of pupae was apparently independent of environmental temperature. At 32º C no eggs survived, while at 18º C less than 2% of the eggs hatched into larva. The data from the present study are essential for developing prediction models about the distribution range of this tramp species based on its physiological needs in relation to temperature

A dynamic knowledge-based decision support system to handle solids separation problems in activated sludge systems: development and validation

El sistema de fangs activats és el tractament biològic més àmpliament utilitzat arreu del món per la depuració d'aigües residuals. El seu funcionament depèn de la correcta operació tant del reactor biològic com del decantador secundari. Quan la fase de sedimentació no es realitza correctament, la biomassa no decantada s'escapa amb l'efluent causant un impacte sobre el medi receptor. Els problemes de separació de sòlids, són actualment una de les principals causes d'ineficiència en l'operació dels sistemes de fangs activats arreu del món. Inclouen: bulking filamentós, bulking viscós, escumes biològiques, creixement dispers, flòcul pin-point i desnitrificació incontrolada. L'origen dels problemes de separació generalment es troba en un desequilibri entre les principals comunitats de microorganismes implicades en la sedimentació de la biomassa: els bacteris formadors de flòcul i els bacteris filamentosos. Degut a aquest origen microbiològic, la seva identificació i control no és una tasca fàcil pels caps de planta. Els Sistemes de Suport a la Presa de Decisions basats en el coneixement (KBDSS) són un grup d'eines informàtiques caracteritzades per la seva capacitat de representar coneixement heurístic i tractar grans quantitats de dades. L'objectiu de la present tesi és el desenvolupament i validació d'un KBDSS específicament dissenyat per donar suport als caps de planta en el control dels problemes de separació de sòlids d'orígen microbiològic en els sistemes de fangs activats. Per aconseguir aquest objectiu principal, el KBDSS ha de presentar les següents característiques: (1) la implementació del sistema ha de ser viable i realista per garantir el seu correcte funcionament; (2) el raonament del sistema ha de ser dinàmic i evolutiu per adaptar-se a les necessitats del domini al qual es vol aplicar i (3) el raonament del sistema ha de ser intel·ligent. En primer lloc, a fi de garantir la viabilitat del sistema, s'ha realitzat un estudi a petita escala (Catalunya) que ha permès determinar tant les variables més utilitzades per a la diagnosi i monitorització dels problemes i els mètodes de control més viables, com la detecció de les principals limitacions que el sistema hauria de resoldre. Els resultats d'anteriors aplicacions han demostrat que la principal limitació en el desenvolupament de KBDSSs és l'estructura de la base de coneixement (KB), on es representa tot el coneixement adquirit sobre el domini, juntament amb els processos de raonament a seguir. En el nostre cas, tenint en compte la dinàmica del domini, aquestes limitacions es podrien veure incrementades si aquest disseny no fos òptim. En aquest sentit, s'ha proposat el Domino Model com a eina per dissenyar conceptualment el sistema. Finalment, segons el darrer objectiu referent al seguiment d'un raonament intel·ligent, l'ús d'un Sistema Expert (basat en coneixement expert) i l'ús d'un Sistema de Raonament Basat en Casos (basat en l'experiència) han estat integrats com els principals sistemes intel·ligents encarregats de dur a terme el raonament del KBDSS. Als capítols 5 i 6 respectivament, es presenten el desenvolupament del Sistema Expert dinàmic (ES) i del Sistema de Raonament Basat en Casos temporal, anomenat Sistema de Raonament Basat en Episodis (EBRS). A continuació, al capítol 7, es presenten detalls de la implementació del sistema global (KBDSS) en l'entorn G2. Seguidament, al capítol 8, es mostren els resultats obtinguts durant els 11 mesos de validació del sistema, on aspectes com la precisió, capacitat i utilitat del sistema han estat validats tant experimentalment (prèviament a la implementació) com a partir de la seva implementació real a l'EDAR de Girona. Finalment, al capítol 9 s'enumeren les principals conclusions derivades de la present tesi.

Societal development and the traditional museum: Applying New Museology to a different context

The Dapperstreet[1] ...Anything is a lot, when you expect so little Life keeps its wonders hidden To suddenly reveal them in a divine state. I thought about all t Soaking wet, one drizzly morning, Simply happy in the Dapperstreet. The Dapperstreet is part of a neighbourhood often referred to as “East”, situated in the eastern part of Amsterdam. It is a lively and vibrant multi-cultural part of the city. It has a daily market with food from around the world, but is also known worldwide because of the murder on Theo van Gogh, the Dutch film director who was killed there in 2001 because of his critical and provocative statements on the Islam. Thus it can be concluded that it is certainly a neighbourhood with its own problems but, as can be read in Bloem’s poem, a place to call home and long for. [1] Poem by J.C. Bloem, The Dapperstreet (Het Verlangen, 1921). Translation by Davida de Hond.