Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

When financial incentives do more good than harm : a checklist

Financial incentives can sometimes improve the quality of clinical practice, but they may also be an expensive distraction. Paul Glasziou and colleagues have devised a checklist to help prevent their premature or inappropriate implementation

Near infrared (NIR) absorption spectra correlates with subchondral bone micro-CT parameters in osteoarthritic rat models

Determining the properties and integrity of subchondral bone in the developmental stages of osteoarthritis, especially in a form that can facilitate real-time characterization for diagnostic and decision-making purposes, is still a matter for research and development. This paper presents relationships between near infrared absorption spectra and properties of subchondral bone obtained from 3 models of osteoarthritic degeneration induced in laboratory rats via: (i) menisectomy (MSX); (ii) anterior cruciate ligament transaction (ACL); and (iii) intra-articular injection of mono-ido-acetate (1 mg) (MIA), in the right knee joint, with 12 rats per model group (N = 36). After 8 weeks, the animals were sacrificed and knee joints were collected. A custom-made diffuse reflectance NIR probe of diameter 5 mm was placed on the tibial surface and spectral data were acquired from each specimen in the wavenumber range 4000–12 500 cm− 1. After spectral acquisition, micro computed tomography (micro-CT) was performed on the samples and subchondral bone parameters namely: bone volume (BV) and bone mineral density (BMD) were extracted from the micro-CT data. Statistical correlation was then conducted between these parameters and regions of the near infrared spectra using multivariate techniques including principal component analysis (PCA), discriminant analysis (DA), and partial least squares (PLS) regression. Statistically significant linear correlations were found between the near infrared absorption spectra and subchondral bone BMD (R2 = 98.84%) and BV (R2 = 97.87%). In conclusion, near infrared spectroscopic probing can be used to detect, qualify and quantify changes in the composition of the subchondral bone, and could potentially assist in distinguishing healthy from OA bone as demonstrated with our laboratory rat models.

Scaffold percolative efficiency : in vitro evaluation of the structural criterion for electrospun mats

Fibrous scaffolds of engineered structures can be chosen as promising porous environments when an approved criterion validates their applicability for a specific medical purpose. For such biomaterials, this paper sought to investigate various structural characteristics in order to determine whether they are appropriate descriptors. A number of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) scaffolds were electrospun; each of which possessed a distinguished architecture when their material and processing conditions were altered. Subsequent culture of mouse fibroblast cells (L929) was carried out to evaluate the cells viability on each scaffold after their attachment for 24 h and proliferation for 48 and 72 h. The scaffolds’ porosity, pores number, pores size and distribution were quantified and none could establish a relationship with the viability results. Virtual reconstruction of the mats introduced an authentic criterion, “Scaffold Percolative Efficiency” (SPE), with which the above descriptors were addressed collectively. It was hypothesized to be able to quantify the efficacy of fibrous scaffolds by considering the integration of porosity and interconnectivity of the pores. There was a correlation of 80% as a good agreement between the SPE values and the spectrophotometer absorbance of viable cells; a viability of more than 350% in comparison to that of the controls.

The great divide : bridging the gap

Learning Objective: To describe a collaborative system of clinical allocations using a dedicated, discipline specific administrative coordinator. Methods: The Clinical Placement Coordinator is the liaison person between the student, the academic staff and the clinical sites, and fills an important role in bridging the gap to enhance the student learning experience. With this in mind the Coordinator is very discipline focused and works closely with the academic staff who coordinate the clinical units within the program. This person is the ‘‘face’’ of QUT to the external stakeholders, and ensures that all parties experience a smooth process. This no mean feat given that there are over 350 students to be placed annually, across 14 separate clinical blocks ranging from 1 to 6 weeks in length at various sites. The processes involved in clinical placement allocation will be presented, and the roles of the staff in facilitating students’ placement preferences and matching with clinical site offers will be described. In many allied health programs in Australia, the clinical placement activity is carried out by an academic member of staff. However, this can result in delays in communications due to other workload requirements such as lecture, tutorial and practical class commitments. Having a dedicated knowledgeable administration officer has resulted in a person being available to take calls from clinical staff, meet with students to discuss allocation needs and ensure that academic staff are consulted if and when necessary. The Clinical Placement Coordinator is very much a part of the course team and attends professional meetings and conferences as an avenue of networking and meeting clinical staff. Results: The success in having a dedicated administrative officer as the Clinical Placement Coordinator acting as the conduit between academic staff and students, and the university and clinical staff has been highly successful to date. This was noted in commendations from the 2010 Course Accreditation Panel Report which stated: ‘‘The very positive perception in the professional community of Ms Margaret McBurney’s effective and efficient organization of student clinical placements. Students and clinical professionals commented favourably on the approachability of staff. There is confidence that program staff will follow up on issues raised urgently in clinical centres.’’

Do RNA viruses require genome cyclisation for replication?

Complementary sequences at the 5′ and 3′ ends of the dengue virus RNA genome are essential for viral replication, and are believed to cyclise the genome through long-range base pairing in cis. Although consistent with evidence in the literature, this view neglects possible biologically active multimeric forms that are equally consistent with the data. Here, we propose alternative multimeric structures, and suggest that multigenome noncovalent concatemers are more likely to exist under cellular conditions than single cyclised monomers. Concatemers provide a plausible mechanism for the dengue virus to overcome the single-stranded (+)-sense RNA virus dilemma, and can potentially assist genome transport from the virus-induced vesicles into the cytosol.

Thermal treatment of natural goethite : thermal transformation and physical properties

XRD (X-ray diffraction), XRF (X-ray fluorescence), TG (thermogravimetry), FT-IES (Fourier transform infrared emission spectroscopy), FESEM (field emission scanning electron microscope), TEM (transmission electron microscope) and nitrogen–adsorption–desorption analysis were used to characterize the composition and thermal evolution of the structure of natural goethite. The in situ FT-IES demonstrated the start temperature (250 °C) of the transformation of natural goethite to hematite and the thermodynamic stability of protohematite between 250 and 600 °C. The heated products showed a topotactic relationship to the original mineral based on SEM analysis. Finally, the nitrogen–adsorption–desorption isotherm provided the variation of surface area and pore size distribution as a function of temperature. The surface area displayed a remarkable increase up to 350 °C, and then decreased above this temperature. The significant increase in surface area was attributed to the formation of regularly arranged slit-shaped micropores running parallel to elongated direction of hematite microcrystal. The main pore size varied from 0.99 nm to 3.5 nm when heating temperature increases from 300 to 400 °C. The hematite derived from heating goethite possesses high surface area and favors the possible application of hematite as an adsorbent as well as catalyst carrier.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks method for aging Australian Caucasian Populations using multislice Computed Tomography reconstructions of the Pubic Symphyseal Surface

Establishing age-at-death for skeletal remains is a vital component of forensic anthropology. The Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation has been widely utilised since 1986 and relies on a visual assessment of the pubic symphyseal surface in comparison to a series of casts. Inter-population studies (Kimmerle et al., 2005; Djuric et al., 2007; Sakaue, 2006) demonstrate limitations of the S-B method, however, no assessment of this technique specific to Australian populations has been published. Aim: This investigation assessed the accuracy and applicability of the S-B method to an adult Australian Caucasian population by highlighting error rates associated with this technique. Methods: Computed tomography (CT) and contact scans of the S-B casts were performed; each geometrically modelled surface was extracted and quantified for reference purposes. A Queensland skeletal database for Caucasian remains aged 15 – 70 years was initiated at the Queensland Health Forensic and Scientific Services – Forensic Pathology Mortuary (n=350). Three-dimensional reconstruction of the bone surface using innovative volume visualisation protocols in Amira® and Rapidform® platforms was performed. Samples were allocated into 11 sub-sets of 5-year age intervals and changes associated with the surface geometry were quantified in relation to age, gender and asymmetry. Results: Preliminary results indicate that computational analysis was successfully applied to model morphological surface changes. Significant differences in observed versus actual ages were noted. Furthermore, initial morphological assessment demonstrates significant bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis, which is unaccounted for in the S-B method. These results propose refinements to the S-B method, when applied to Australian casework. Conclusion: This investigation promises to transform anthropological analysis to be more quantitative and less invasive using CT imaging. The overarching goal contributes to improving skeletal identification and medico-legal death investigation in the coronial process by narrowing the range of age-at-death estimation in a biological profile.

A family of Alltop functions that are EA-inequivalent to the cubic function

Sequences with optimal correlation properties are much sought after for applications in communication systems. In 1980, Alltop (\emph{IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory} 26(3):350-354, 1980) described a set of sequences based on a cubic function and showed that these sequences were optimal with respect to the known bounds on auto and crosscorrelation. Subsequently these sequences were used to construct mutually unbiased bases (MUBs), a structure of importance in quantum information theory. The key feature of this cubic function is that its difference function is a planar function. Functions with planar difference functions have been called \emph{Alltop functions}. This paper provides a new family of Alltop functions and establishes the use of Alltop functions for construction of sequence sets and MUBs.

Institutional specifics and unemployment insurance eligibility in Canada : how sensitive are employment duration effects?

The paper examines the influence of unemployment insurance on the duration of employment spells in Canada using the 1988–90 Labour Market Activity Survey. The primary focus of the paper is to evaluate whether estimated UI effects are sensitive to the degree to which institutional rules and regulations governing UI eligibility and entitlement are explicitly modelled. The key result of the paper is that it is indeed important to allow for institutional detail when estimating unemployment insurance effects. Estimates using simple proxies for eligibility indicate small, often insignificant UI effects. The size and significance of the effects rise as more realistic versions of the variables are adopted. The estimates using the eligibility variables incorporating the greatest level of institutional detail suggest that a jump in the hazard rate by a factor of 2.3 may not be an unreasonable estimate of the effect.

Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. Methods: We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. Results: In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/ signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant difference (F = 2.75, P = 0.04) was detected for age of disease onset between the affected misclassified as controls (mean = 36 years) and the other three groups (high, 33.5 years; medium, 33.4 years; low, 33.1 years). Conclusions: The results are consistent with the polygenic model of inheritance. The cumulative genetic risk established using currently available genome-wide association data provides important insights into disease heterogeneity and completeness of current knowledge in MS genetics.

Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain

Purpose – The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. Findings – The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience. Originality/value – The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

Effect of aerobic interval training and caffeine on blood platelet function

Purpose: Hyperactive platelets contribute to the thrombotic response in humans, and exercise transiently increases platelet function. Caffeine is routinely used by athletes as an ergogenic aid, but the combined effect of exercise and caffeine on platelet function has not been investigated. Methods: Twelve healthy males were randomly assigned to one of four groups and undertook four experimental trials of a high-intensity aerobic interval training (AIT) bout or rest with ingestion of caffeine (3 mg·kg-1) or placebo. AIT was 8 × 5 min at approximately 75% peak power output (approximately 80% V?O2peak) and 1-min recovery (approximately 40% peak power output, approximately 50% V?O2peak) intervals. Blood/urine was collected before, 60, and 90 min after capsule ingestion and analyzed for platelet aggregation/activation. Results: AIT increased platelet reactivity to adenosine diphosphate (placebo 30.3%, caffeine 13.4%, P < 0.05) and collagen (placebo 10.8%, caffeine 5.1%, P < 0.05) compared with rest. Exercise placebo increased adenosine diphosphate-induced aggregation 90 min postingestion compared with baseline (40.5%, P < 0.05), but the increase when exercise was combined with caffeine was small (6.6%). During the resting caffeine protocol, collagen-induced aggregation was reduced (-4.3%, P < 0.05). AIT increased expression of platelet activation marker PAC-1 with exercise placebo (P < 0.05) but not when combined with caffeine. Conclusion: A single bout of AIT increases platelet function, but caffeine ingestion (3 mg·kg) does not exacerbate platelet function at rest or in response to AIT. Our results provide new information showing caffeine at a dose that can elicit ergogenic effects on performance has no detrimental effect on platelet function and may have the potential to attenuate increases in platelet activation and aggregation when undertaking strenuous exercise.

Integrated Lean Six Sigma approach for patient flow improvement in hospital emergency department

Because of increased competition between healthcare providers, higher customer expectations, stringent checks on insurance payments and new government regulations, it has become vital for healthcare organisations to enhance the quality of the care they provide, to increase efficiency, and to improve the cost effectiveness of their services. Consequently, a number of quality management concepts and tools are employed in the healthcare domain to achieve the most efficient ways of using time, manpower, space and other resources. Emergency departments are designed to provide a high-quality medical service with immediate availability of resources to those in need of emergency care. The challenge of maintaining a smooth flow of patients in emergency departments is a global problem. This study attempts to improve the patient flow in emergency departments by considering Lean techniques and Six Sigma methodology in a comprehensive conceptual framework. The proposed research will develop a systematic approach through integration of Lean techniques with Six Sigma methodology to improve patient flow in emergency departments. The results reported in this paper are based on a standard questionnaire survey of 350 patients in the Emergency Department of Aseer Central Hospital in Saudi Arabia. The results of the study led us to determine the most significant variables affecting patient satisfaction with patient flow, including waiting time during patient treatment in the emergency department; effectiveness of the system when dealing with the patient’s complaints; and the layout of the emergency department. The proposed model will be developed within a performance evaluation metric based on these critical variables, to be evaluated in future work within fuzzy logic for continuous quality improvement.