897 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting


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Abstract The material flow in friction stir spot welding of aluminium to both aluminium and steel has been investigated, using pinless tools in a lap joint geometry. The flow behaviour was revealed experimentally using dissimilar Al alloys of similar strength. The effect on the material flow of tool surface features, welding conditions (rotation speed, plunge depth, dwell time), and the surface state of the steel sheet (un-coated or galvanized) have been systematically studied. A novel kinematic flow model is presented, which successfully predicts the observed layering of the dissimilar Al alloys under a range of conditions. The model and the experimental observations provide a consistent interpretation of the stick-slip conditions at the tool-workpiece interface, addressing an elusive and long-standing issue in the modelling of heat generation in friction stir processing.

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Over the last decade an Auburn-Rollins-Strathclyde consortium has developed several suites of parallel R-matrix codes [1, 2, 3] that can meet the fundamental data needs required for the interpretation of astrophysical observation and/or plasma experiments. Traditionally our collisional work on light fusion-related atoms has been focused towards spectroscopy and impurity transport for magnetically confined fusion devices. Our approach has been to provide a comprehensive data set for the excitation/ionization for every ion stage of a particular element. As we progress towards a burning fusion plasma, there is a demand for the collisional processes involving tungsten, which has required a revitalization of the relativistic R-matrix approach. The implementation of these codes on massively parallel supercomputers has facilitated the progression to models involving thousands of levels in the close-coupling expansion required by the open d and f sub-shell systems of mid Z tungsten. This work also complements the electron-impact excitation of Fe-Peak elements required by astrophysics, in particular the near neutral species, which offer similar atomic structure challenges. Although electron-impact excitation work is our primary focus in terms of fusion application, the single photon photoionisation codes are also being developed in tandem, and benefit greatly from this ongoing work.

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Passive intermodulation (PIM) often limits the performance of communication systems with analog and digitally-modulated signals and especially of systems supporting multiple carriers. Since the origins of the apparently multiple physical sources of nonlinearity causing PIM are not fully understood, the behavioral models are frequently used to describe the process of PIM generation. In this paper a polynomial model of memoryless nonlinearity is deduced from PIM measurements of a microstrip line with distributed nonlinearity with two-tone CW signals. The analytical model of nonlinearity is incorporated in Keysight Technology’s ADS simulator to evaluate the metrics of signal fidelity in the receive band for analog and digitally-modulated signals. PIM-induced distortion and cross-band interference with modulated signals are compared to those with two-tone CW signals. It is shown that conventional metrics can be applied to quantify the effect of distributed nonlinearities on signal fidelity. It is found that the two-tone CW test provides a worst-case estimate of cross-band interference for two-carrier modulated signals whereas with a three-carrier signal PIM interference in the receive band is noticeably overestimated. The simulated constellation diagrams for QPSK signals demonstrate that PIM interference exhibits the distinctive signatures of correlated distortion and this indicates that there are opportunities for mitigating PIM interference and that PIM interference cannot be treated as noise. One of the interesting results is that PIM distortion on a transmission line results in asymmetrical regrowth of output PIM interference for modulated signals.

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The renewed concern in assessing risks and consequences from technological hazards in industrial and urban areas continues emphasizing the development of local-scale consequence analysis (CA) modelling tools able to predict shortterm pollution episodes and exposure effects on humans and the environment in case of accident with hazardous gases (hazmat). In this context, the main objective of this thesis is the development and validation of the EFfects of Released Hazardous gAses (EFRHA) model. This modelling tool is designed to simulate the outflow and atmospheric dispersion of heavy and passive hazmat gases in complex and build-up areas, and to estimate the exposure consequences of short-term pollution episodes in accordance to regulatory/safety threshold limits. Five main modules comprising up-to-date methods constitute the model: meteorological, terrain, source term, dispersion, and effects modules. Different initial physical states accident scenarios can be examined. Considered the main core of the developed tool, the dispersion module comprises a shallow layer modelling approach capable to account the main influence of obstacles during the hazmat gas dispersion phenomena. Model validation includes qualitative and quantitative analyses of main outputs by the comparison of modelled results against measurements and/or modelled databases. The preliminary analysis of meteorological and source term modules against modelled outputs from extensively validated models shows the consistent description of ambient conditions and the variation of the hazmat gas release. Dispersion is compared against measurements observations in obstructed and unobstructed areas for different release and dispersion scenarios. From the performance validation exercise, acceptable agreement was obtained, showing the reasonable numerical representation of measured features. In general, quality metrics are within or close to the acceptance limits recommended for ‘non-CFD models’, demonstrating its capability to reasonably predict hazmat gases accidental release and atmospheric dispersion in industrial and urban areas. EFRHA model was also applied to a particular case study, the Estarreja Chemical Complex (ECC), for a set of accidental release scenarios within a CA scope. The results show the magnitude of potential effects on the surrounding populated area and influence of the type of accident and the environment on the main outputs. Overall the present thesis shows that EFRHA model can be used as a straightforward tool to support CA studies in the scope of training and planning, but also, to support decision and emergency response in case of hazmat gases accidental release in industrial and built-up areas.

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This paper presents the development and implementation of a digital simulation model of a three-phase, three-leg, power transformer. The proposed model, implemented in MATLAB environment, is based on the physical concept of representing windings as mutually coupled coils, and it is intended to study its adequacy to incorporate, at a later stage, the influences of the occurrence of windings inter- turn short-circuits. Both simulation and laboratory tests results, obtained so far, for a three-phase, 6 kVA transformer, demonstrate the adequacy of the model under normal operating conditions.

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Tese de dout., Métodos Quantitativos Aplicados à Economia e à Gestão, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2008

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Master Thesis in Mechanical Engineering field of Maintenance and Production

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Volatile organic compounds are a common source of groundwater contamination that can be easily removed by air stripping in columns with random packing and using a counter-current flow between the phases. This work proposes a new methodology for the column design for any particular type of packing and contaminant avoiding the necessity of a pre-defined diameter used in the classical approach. It also renders unnecessary the employment of the graphical Eckert generalized correlation for pressure drop estimates. The hydraulic features are previously chosen as a project criterion and only afterwards the mass transfer phenomena are incorporated, in opposition to conventional approach. The design procedure was translated into a convenient algorithm using C++ as programming language. A column was built in order to test the models used either in the design or in the simulation of the column performance. The experiments were fulfilled using a solution of chloroform in distilled water. Another model was built to simulate the operational performance of the column, both in steady state and in transient conditions. It consists in a system of two partial non linear differential equations (distributed parameters). Nevertheless, when flows are steady, the system became linear, although there is not an evident solution in analytical terms. In steady state the resulting system of ODE can be solved, allowing for the calculation of the concentration profile in both phases inside the column. In transient state the system of PDE was numerically solved by finite differences, after a previous linearization.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química, especialidade de Engenharia Bioquímica

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The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

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Behavioral researchers commonly use single subject designs to evaluate the effects of a given treatment. Several different methods of data analysis are used, each with their own set of methodological strengths and limitations. Visual inspection is commonly used as a method of analyzing data which assesses the variability, level, and trend both within and between conditions (Cooper, Heron, & Heward, 2007). In an attempt to quantify treatment outcomes, researchers developed two methods for analysing data called Percentage of Non-overlapping Data Points (PND) and Percentage of Data Points Exceeding the Median (PEM). The purpose of the present study is to compare and contrast the use of Hierarchical Linear Modelling (HLM), PND and PEM in single subject research. The present study used 39 behaviours, across 17 participants to compare treatment outcomes of a group cognitive behavioural therapy program, using PND, PEM, and HLM on three response classes of Obsessive Compulsive Behaviour in children with Autism Spectrum Disorder. Findings suggest that PEM and HLM complement each other and both add invaluable information to the overall treatment results. Future research should consider using both PEM and HLM when analysing single subject designs, specifically grouped data with variability.