Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Riluzole neuroprotection in a parkinson’s disease model involves suppression of reactive astrocytosis but not GLT-1 regulation

Background Riluzole is a neuroprotective drug used in the treatment of motor neurone disease. Recent evidence suggests that riluzole can up-regulate the expression and activity of the astrocyte glutamate transporter, GLT-1. Given that regulation of glutamate transport is predicted to be neuroprotective in Parkinson's disease, we tested the effect of riluzole in parkinsonian rats which had received a unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine injection into the median forebrain bundle. Results Rats were treated with intraperitoneal riluzole (4 mg/kg or 8 mg/kg), 1 hour before the lesion then once daily for seven days. Riluzole produced a modest but significant attenuation of dopamine neurone degeneration, assessed by suppression of amphetamine-induced rotations, preservation of tyrosine hydroxylase positive neuronal cell bodies in the substantia nigra pars compacta and attenuation of striatal tyrosine hydroxylase protein loss. Seven days after 6-hydroxydopamine lesion, reactive astrocytosis was observed in the striatum, as determined by increases in expression of glial fibrillary acidic protein, however the glutamate transporter, GLT-1, which is also expressed in astrocytes was not regulated by the lesion. Conclusions The results confirm that riluzole is a neuroprotective agent in a rodent model of parkinson’s disease. Riluzole administration did not regulate GLT-1 levels but significantly reduced GFAP levels, in the lesioned striatum. Riluzole suppression of reactive astrocytosis is an intriguing finding which might contribute to the neuroprotective effects of this drug.

Promotion carryover as a missing data problem

An important feature of agribusiness promotion programs is their lagged impact on consumption. Efficient investment in advertising requires reliable estimates of these lagged responses and it is desirable from both applied and theoretical standpoints to have a flexible method for estimating them. This note derives an alternative Bayesian methodology for estimating lagged responses when investments occur intermittently within a time series. The method exploits a latent-variable extension of the natural-conjugate, normal-linear model, Gibbs sampling and data augmentation. It is applied to a monthly time series on Turkish pasta consumption (1993:5-1998:3) and three, nonconsecutive promotion campaigns (1996:3, 1997:3, 1997:10). The results suggest that responses were greatest to the second campaign, which allocated its entire budget to television media; that its impact peaked in the sixth month following expenditure; and that the rate of return (measured in metric tons additional consumption per thousand dollars expended) was around a factor of 20.

Endogenous cholinergic tone modulates spontaneous network level neuronal activity in primary cortical cultures grown on multi-electrode arrays

Background Cortical cultures grown long-term on multi-electrode arrays (MEAs) are frequently and extensively used as models of cortical networks in studies of neuronal firing activity, neuropharmacology, toxicology and mechanisms underlying synaptic plasticity. However, in contrast to the predominantly asynchronous neuronal firing activity exhibited by intact cortex, electrophysiological activity of mature cortical cultures is dominated by spontaneous epileptiform-like global burst events which hinders their effective use in network-level studies, particularly for neurally-controlled animat (‘artificial animal’) applications. Thus, the identification of culture features that can be exploited to produce neuronal activity more representative of that seen in vivo could increase the utility and relevance of studies that employ these preparations. Acetylcholine has a recognised neuromodulatory role affecting excitability, rhythmicity, plasticity and information flow in vivo although its endogenous production by cortical cultures and subsequent functional influence upon neuronal excitability remains unknown. Results Consequently, using MEA electrophysiological recording supported by immunohistochemical and RT-qPCR methods, we demonstrate for the first time, the presence of intrinsic cholinergic neurons and significant, endogenous cholinergic tone in cortical cultures with a characterisation of the muscarinic and nicotinic components that underlie modulation of spontaneous neuronal activity. We found that tonic muscarinic ACh receptor (mAChR) activation affects global excitability and burst event regularity in a culture age-dependent manner whilst, in contrast, tonic nicotinic ACh receptor (nAChR) activation can modulate burst duration and the proportion of spikes occurring within bursts in a spatio-temporal fashion. Conclusions We suggest that the presence of significant endogenous cholinergic tone in cortical cultures and the comparability of its modulatory effects to those seen in intact brain tissues support emerging, exploitable commonalities between in vivo and in vitro preparations. We conclude that experimental manipulation of endogenous cholinergic tone could offer a novel opportunity to improve the use of cortical cultures for studies of network-level mechanisms in a manner that remains largely consistent with its functional role.

Realistic mean field forward predictions for the integration of co-registered EEG/fMRI

Brain activity can be measured non-invasively with functional imaging techniques. Each pixel in such an image represents a neural mass of about 105 to 107 neurons. Mean field models (MFMs) approximate their activity by averaging out neural variability while retaining salient underlying features, like neurotransmitter kinetics. However, MFMs incorporating the regional variability, realistic geometry and connectivity of cortex have so far appeared intractable. This lack of biological realism has led to a focus on gross temporal features of the EEG. We address these impediments and showcase a "proof of principle" forward prediction of co-registered EEG/fMRI for a full-size human cortex in a realistic head model with anatomical connectivity, see figure 1. MFMs usually assume homogeneous neural masses, isotropic long-range connectivity and simplistic signal expression to allow rapid computation with partial differential equations. But these approximations are insufficient in particular for the high spatial resolution obtained with fMRI, since different cortical areas vary in their architectonic and dynamical properties, have complex connectivity, and can contribute non-trivially to the measured signal. Our code instead supports the local variation of model parameters and freely chosen connectivity for many thousand triangulation nodes spanning a cortical surface extracted from structural MRI. This allows the introduction of realistic anatomical and physiological parameters for cortical areas and their connectivity, including both intra- and inter-area connections. Proper cortical folding and conduction through a realistic head model is then added to obtain accurate signal expression for a comparison to experimental data. To showcase the synergy of these computational developments, we predict simultaneously EEG and fMRI BOLD responses by adding an established model for neurovascular coupling and convolving "Balloon-Windkessel" hemodynamics. We also incorporate regional connectivity extracted from the CoCoMac database [1]. Importantly, these extensions can be easily adapted according to future insights and data. Furthermore, while our own simulation is based on one specific MFM [2], the computational framework is general and can be applied to models favored by the user. Finally, we provide a brief outlook on improving the integration of multi-modal imaging data through iterative fits of a single underlying MFM in this realistic simulation framework.

Economic forecasting in a changing world

This article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting Nonstationary Economic Time Series, 1999, MIT Press, and three edited volumes, Understanding Economic Forecasts, 2001, MIT Press, A Companion to Economic Forecasting, 2002, Blackwells, and the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005. The aim here is to provide an accessible, non-technical, account of the main ideas. The interested reader is referred to the monographs for derivations, simulation evidence, and further empirical illustrations, which in turn reference the original articles and related material, and provide bibliographic perspective.

Tumor necrosis factor alpha triggers proliferation of adult neural stem cells via IKK/NF-kappaB signaling

BACKGROUND: Brain inflammation has been recognized as a complex phenomenon with numerous related aspects. In addition to the very well-described neurodegenerative effect of inflammation, several studies suggest that inflammatory signals exert a potentially positive influence on neural stem cell proliferation, migration and differentiation. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) is one of the best-characterized mediators of inflammation. To date, conclusions about the action of TNF on neural stem or progenitor cells (NSCs, NPCs) have been conflicting. TNF seems to activate NSC proliferation and to inhibit their differentiation into NPCs. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the molecular signal transduction mechanisms induced by TNF and resulting in NSC proliferation. RESULTS: Here we describe for the first time the TNF-mediated signal transduction cascade in neural stem cells (NSCs) that results in increased proliferation. Moreover, we demonstrate IKK-alpha/beta-dependent proliferation and markedly up-regulated cyclin D1 expression after TNF treatment. The significant increase in proliferation in TNF-treated cells was indicated by increased neurosphere volume, increased bromodeoxyuridin (BrdU) incorporation and a higher total cell number. Furthermore, TNF strongly activated nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-kappaB) as measured by reporter gene assays and by an activity-specific antibody. Proliferation of control and TNF-treated NSCs was strongly inhibited by expression of the NF-kappaB super-repressor IkappaB-AA1. Pharmacological blockade of IkappaB ubiquitin ligase activity led to comparable decreases in NF-kappaB activity and proliferation. In addition, IKK-beta gene product knock-down via siRNA led to diminished NF-kappaB activity, attenuated cyclin D1 expression and finally decreased proliferation. In contrast, TGFbeta-activated kinase 1 (TAK-1) is partially dispensable for TNF-mediated and endogenous proliferation. Understanding stem cell proliferation is crucial for future regenerative and anti-tumor medicine. CONCLUSION: TNF-mediated activation of IKK-beta resulted in activation of NF-kappaB and was followed by up-regulation of the bona-fide target gene cyclin D1. Activation of the canonical NF-kappaB pathway resulted in strongly increased proliferation of NSCs.

Evaluation of trace element levels in muscles, liver and gonad of fish species from Sao Francisco River of the Parana Brazilian state by using SR-TXRF technique

This study is focused on the analysis of an accumulation of inorganic elements in muscles, liver and gonad of seven fish species from Sao Francisco River located in the Parana state of Brazil. Concentrations of the elements were determined using the SR-TXRF technique. In the muscles of fish species, negative length dependent relationships were observed for chromium and zinc ion absorption. The obtained results showed that accumulated Cr ions values are above the limits defined in the Brazilian legislative norm on food. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Impacto da implantação de um novo sistema de informação em uma empresa do setor de energia elétrica

Este trabalho investiga o impacto da adoção e da implementação de um Sistema Integrado de Gestão em uma empresa do setor elétrico brasileiro, Companhia Estadual de Energia Elétrica – CEEE. Os Sistemas Integrados de Gestão – SIG´s – compõem um novo conceito para a gestão de informação nas organizações. Esses sistemas prometem a integração de todos os fluxos de informações internos e externos a uma organização. A busca da efetiva integração dos negócios levou inúmeras empresas a implementarem os SIG´s. Como a expectativa de resultados é significativa e os investimentos envolvidos são elevados, a avaliação é uma importante etapa da implementação deste tipo de sistema nas empresas. O objetivo do trabalho é avaliar se a implementação do sistema empresarial Synergia trouxe alteração na eficiência operacional da CEEE. O método de avaliação baseou-se em duas dimensões: utilidade e satisfação pelo usuário. Para avaliação da utilidade do sistema, outras três subdimensões foram estabelecidas: a) impacto nos fatores críticos de sucesso da empresa; b) impacto nos processos; c) impacto nos indicadores de desempenho. Com base em um referencial teórico centrado nas características destes sistemas e nos métodos de avaliação que enfatizam as questões mais significativas a serem consideradas na implementação desses projetos, a pesquisa revelou aspectos da implementação e deficiências do software que conduziram ao insucesso do projeto.

Sótão

Ilustração componente do jogo “Musikinésia (http://www.loa.sead.ufscar.br/musikinesia.php)” desenvolvido pela equipe do Laboratório de Objetos de Aprendizagem da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (LOA/UFSCar).

An investigation on sliding wear behavior of PVD coatings

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Hexagonal mesoporous silica modified with 2-mercaptothiazoline for removing mercury from water solution

A method for the attachment of 2-mercaptothiazoline (MTZ) to modified silica gel has been developed. In the first step, a new silylant agent was synthesized, named SiMTZ, by the reaction between MTZ molecule and chloropropyltrimethoxysilane (SiCl). SiMTZ and tetraethylortosilicate were co-condensed in the presence of n-dodecylamine, a neutral surfactant template, to produce a modified ordered hexagonal mesoporous silica named HMTZ. The modified material contained 0.89 +/- 0.03 mmol of 2-mercaptothiazoline per gram of silica. FT-IR, FT-Raman, Si-29- and C-13-NMR spectra were in agreement with the proposed structure of the modified mesoporous silica in the solid state. HMTZ material has been used for divalent mercury adsorption from aqueous solution at 298 I K. The series of adsorption isotherms were adjusted to a modified Langmuir equation. The maximum number of moles of mercury adsorbed gave 2.34 +/- 0.09 mmol/g of material. The same interaction was followed by calorimetric titration on an isoperibol calorimeter. The HMTZ presented a high capacity for the removal of the contaminant mercury from water. The Delta H and Delta G values for the interaction were determined to be -56.34 +/- 1.07 and -2.14 +/- 0.11 kJ mol(-1). This interaction process was accompanied by a decrease of entropy value (- 182 J mol(-1) K-1). Thus, the interaction between mercury and HMTZ resulted in a spontaneous thermodynamic system with a high favorable exothermic enthalpic effect. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fitase e digestibilidade aparente de nutrientes de rações por tilápias-do-nilo

Objetivou-se determinar a digestibilidade aparente de nutrientes de rações com diferentes níveis de fitase formuladas com alimentos de origem vegetal, em 90 juvenis de tilápia-do-nilo, pesando em média 120,0 g, alojados em nove tanques-rede (dez peixes/tanque). Adotou-se delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com nove tratamentos e seis repetições. Os tratamentos consistiram de uma ração suplementada com fósforo (controle) e de oito sem suplementação de fósforo, porém com 500, 1.000, 1.500, 2.000, 2.500, 3.000, 3.500 e 4.000 unidades de fitase (UF)/kg de ração, todas isoenergéticas e isoprotéicas. A inclusão de 1.500 UF melhorou a digestibilidade da MS e da EB e a disponibilidade de cálcio e fósforo das rações. O nível de 1.000 UF melhorou a disponibilidade de zinco e manganês.

Ropivacaína isolada e associada ao fentanil ou ao tramadol administrados pela via peridural em cães

A anestesia peridural é amplamente difundida no meio veterinário, utilizando-se o anestésico local isolado ou associado aos opióides, capazes de promover aumento do efeito analgésico. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a função cardiorrespiratória e analgésica da ropivacaína isolada ou associada ao fentanil ou tramadol. Para tanto, oito cães foram tranqüilizados com acepromazina, submetidos à anestesia peridural com um dos seguintes protocolos: GR (ropivacaína), GRF (ropivacaína + fentanil), GRT (ropivacaína + tramadol), em volume total de 0,25ml kg-1, e foram avaliados os parâmetros: freqüência cardíaca e respiratória, temperatura retal, pressão arterial sistólica, e gasometria do sangue arterial, os bloqueios sensitivo e motor, o grau de sedação e a ocorrência de possíveis efeitos indesejáveis. A diminuição da freqüência cardíaca nos grupos GRF e GRT foi mais intensa e ocorreu hipotermia significativa no GRF. Foi evidenciada sedação severa em GRF e GRT. O período de recuperação foi mais curto nos animais de GRT. O GRT foi o grupo que apresentou bloqueio mais cranial. Foram observadas bradicardia, hipotermia e síndrome de Shiff-Sherrington no período trans-anestésico em animais de todos os grupos. Nas 24 horas de período pós-anestésico, não foram evidenciados efeitos indesejáveis nos grupos. O GRF apresentou maior duração de anestesia e analgesia, enquanto que o GRT apresentou a menor duração de anestesia com analgesia intermediária e o GR apresentou duração intermediária, com menor analgesia. Não foram encontradas alterações respiratórias e hemogasométricas, porém, bradicardia, hipotermia e síndrome de Schiff-Sherrington, alterações trans-anestésicas comuns na anestesia peridural foram encontradas.