985 resultados para 2050


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Se transcribe la conferencia titulada Tendencias y problemas de la Enseñanza de nivel medio en la Europa de hoy, pronunciada en la Reunión del Profesorado de Granada por el Profesor Otto Ángel, en abril de 1968. Se habla en primer lugar del espíritu de unión europeo y de las figuras que lo han impulsado, como Adenauer, De Gasperi y Schumann. Posteriormente se adentra en la cuestión de la educación secundaria en Europa. Se destaca como del 20 al 28 de abril de 1967 se celebró en Málaga, una Semana de estudios, organizada por el Gobierno español bajo los auspicios del Consejo de Europa cuyo tema fue La actitud humanista en la enseñanza secundaria para la Europa del mañana. Se precisó como el humanismo no se reduce a las llamadas humanidades de los tiempos pasados, es decir al estudio de las lenguas y literaturas griega y latina, sino que todas las asignaturas tienen un núcleo humanístico. Pero el núcleo central lo integran los siguientes temas: las organizaciones europeas de cooperación pedagógica, las cuestiones de orientación escolar concernientes a la enseñanza secundaria y los métodos de enseñanza contrapuestos. Para terminar se señala que otro tipo de actividad pedagógica moderna lo constituye la llamada forma social-integradora, en la que el profesor da una visión general del trabajo proyectado. Este proyecto es sometido a discusión y a decisión por grupos de alumnos estimulados por el profesor.

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Este volumen recoge los proyectos de innovación premiados en el curso 98-99. Incluye un amplio resumen de las diez experiencias premiadas, ordenadas por niveles educativos, que se estructuran siguiendo un mismo esquema, justificación, objetivos, contenidos, metodología, temporalización y secuenciación, recursos, elaboración de materiales, organización del centro para llevar a cabo el proyecto, evaluación y finalmente las conclusiones.

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Título anterior: Boletín de la Comisión Española de la UNESCO

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Resumen basado en el de la publicaci??n

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La majoria dels alumnes actuals del grau d’educació primària que esdevinguin mestres es jubilaran als voltants de l’any 2050. Aquest fet, i la constatació que vivim en una societat canviant, fa cada vegada més necessari esenvolupar la competència d’aprendre a aprendre, no només per ser un ensenyant competent, sinó també per afrontar la realitat amb tota la seva complexitat. Les exigències del pla Bolonya, els suggeriments del Lifelong Learning Programme 2007-2013 de la Comissió Europea i els nostres propis programes educatius, ja incorporen l’autoregulació dels aprenentatges com una de les fites a assolir en el procés d’ensenyament aprenentatge. En aquests context, la pràctica que presentem persegueix dos objectius: per una part dotar als alumnes de grau d’eines per a la seva autoregulació dels aprenentatges, i per altra, comprovar fins a quin punt la introducció de la coavaluació era acceptada per l’estudiantat del grau d’educació primària i si es reconeixien els beneficis de la funció reguladora de la coavaluació en el procés l’ensenyament aprenentatge, en especial en els aspectes que feien referència a la competència lingüística i la capacitat crítica.

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Viver mais tempo, é sinónimo de envelhecimento, no entanto a longevidade não é necessariamente uma ameaça ou até mesmo uma fatalidade, é sim uma oportunidade que o Ser Humano tem para viver melhor os momentos que a vida lhe proporciona. Estima-se que, em Portugal, o envelhecimento demográfico tenha aumentado significativamente desde o Século XXI, existindo actualmente uma população idosa (mais de 65 anos) de 19,15% contra uma população jovem (inferior a 14 anos) de 14,89%. Hoje em dia a esperança média de vida é de 79,2 anos (80 anos para as mulheres e 74 anos para os homens). Estima-se que no ano de 2050 a população idosa aumente para 35,72% e a jovem diminua para 14,4%. No entanto, como consequência desse envelhecimento, aumenta a incidência de patologias crónicas, levando a um maior consumo de medicamentos (Polimedicação) e outros cuidados de saúde. É importante que se estabeleçam medidas para que o envelhecimento seja activo, ou seja, para que os idosos de “hoje” sejam activos, tenham plena cidadania, tendo maior segurança, maior participação e melhor qualidade de vida, sendo estas medidas, o maior desafio para a sociedade actual. A seguinte monografia visa abordar todos os conteúdos necessários para obter a informação necessária, de forma a compreender quais as medidas correctas para um acompanhamento farmacoterapêutico do doente idoso eficaz, diminuindo a morbilidade e mortalidade e desta forma aumentar a qualidade de vida na longevidade.

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El autor realiza una aproximación al contexto de la experiencia socio-estatal y gubernamental que se está empezando a vivir en Bolivia y cuyas políticas públicas, al menos las más importantes, están comenzando a diseñarse desde la perspectiva de la des-colonialidad. Este horizonte teórico y político plantea una serie de posibilidades y también de desafíos. A la dilucidación de tales emergencias, riesgos y retos está dedicada la presente reflexión.

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Después de dos años de compartir con los adultos mayores, jubilados del IESS, de diferentes centros de recreación y en los hospitales de esta Institución, me fui acercando poco a poco a ellos. Son seres extraordinarios, de gran sabiduría y acierto. Aprecian la lectura, les gusta leer las revistas especialmente la Revista Familia, porque tiene un formato amigable, a todo color y es gratis. Leer les ayuda a mejorar su memoria y pueden ocupar su tiempo libre. Según ellos el tiempo que usan para leer sería más productivo, si se encontrarían información específica para los adultos mayores. Su queja continua, “no se encuentra nada para nosotros, en ningún medio de comunicación”. Percibí su desencanto y empecé a recopilar sus testimonios, que de manera formal se evidencia en esta investigación, con el anhelo de trasladar sus denuncias y el vacío que sienten al ser ignorados e invisibilizados por la sociedad. Este es un estudio etnográfico y de comunicación, basado en la investigación bibliográfica, y testimonial. Los testimonios se obtienen a través de grupos focales dirigidos a los adultos mayores jubilados que acuden a los centros recreacionales de Chimbacalle y Naciones Unidas del Instituto Ecuatoriano de Seguridad Social; además de entrevistas a profundidad dirigidas a las especialista del IESS, las doctoras Julia Estrella Gerontóloga Clínica, Elizabeth Arturo, Siquiatra-geriatra; a Jesús Sanz, asesor de la Secretaria del Buen Vivir; y, a Nancy Verdezoto, directora de la Revista Familia del Diario El Comercio. El presente trabajo se dividió en cuatro capítulos: Primero: El adulto mayor, trata sobre el proceso de envejecimiento del ser humano; muestra como la población mayor, será más en el año 2050, las necesidades del adulto mayor y, como la sociedad los invisibiliza. El segundo capítulo aborda a la Revista Familia como preferida por el adulto mayor: En este tema se describen y analizan a los contenidos para este segmento de la población. Tercer capítulo: La invisibilización del adulto mayor en la Revista Familia en los medios de comunicación. Enfoca la realidad de los adultos mayores en la sociedad y la forma en la que son invisibilizados. Finalmente, en el capítulo cuarto conclusiones: evidencia la demanda del adulto mayor para tener presencia en la Revista Familia. Este estudio pretende contribuir a la visibilización positiva del adulto mayor, en la Revista Familia y en la sociedad en general, para lograr el Buen Vivir.

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Aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources have been recognized as having an important impact on the climate system. However, the small size of aerosol particles (ranging from 0.01 to more than 10 μm in diameter) and their influence on solar and terrestrial radiation makes them difficult to represent within the coarse resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) such that small-scale processes, for example, sulfate formation and conversion, need parameterizing. It is the parameterization of emissions, conversion, and deposition and the radiative effects of aerosol particles that causes uncertainty in their representation within GCMs. The aim of this study was to perturb aspects of a sulfur cycle scheme used within a GCM to represent the climatological impacts of sulfate aerosol derived from natural and anthropogenic sulfur sources. It was found that perturbing volcanic SO2 emissions and the scavenging rate of SO2 by precipitation had the largest influence on the sulfate burden. When these parameters were perturbed the sulfate burden ranged from 0.73 to 1.17 TgS for 2050 sulfur emissions (A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)), comparable with the range in sulfate burden across all the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRESs. Thus, the results here suggest that the range in sulfate burden due to model uncertainty is comparable with scenario uncertainty. Despite the large range in sulfate burden there was little influence on the climate sensitivity, which had a range of less than 0.5 K across the ensemble. We hypothesize that this small effect was partly associated with high sulfate loadings in the control phase of the experiment.

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Observations suggest that the mixing ratio of water vapour in the stratosphere has increased by 20–50% between the 1960s and mid-1990s. Here we show that inclusion of such a stratospheric water vapour (SWV) increase in a state-of-the-art climate model modifies the circulation of the extratropical troposphere: the modeled increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is 40% of the observed increase in NAO index between 1965 and 1995, suggesting that if the SWV trend is real, it explains a significant fraction of the observed NAO trend. Our results imply that SWV changes provide a novel mechanism for communicating the effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions and ENSO events to the extratropical troposphere over timescales of a few years, which provides a mechanism for interannual climate predictability. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of regional climate change associated with changes in methane emissions.

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Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulattum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of L noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of L noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H-T= 0.064) was partitioned between (G(ST) = 0.455) rather than within (H-S = 0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water. but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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There is a growing concern in reducing greenhouse gas emissions all over the world. The U.K. has set 34% target reduction of emission before 2020 and 80% before 2050 compared to 1990 recently in Post Copenhagen Report on Climate Change. In practise, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tools have been introduced to construction industry in order to achieve this such as. However, there is clear a disconnection between costs and environmental impacts over the life cycle of a built asset when using these two tools. Besides, the changes in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) lead to a change in the way information is represented, in particular, information is being fed more easily and distributed more quickly to different stakeholders by the use of tool such as the Building Information Modelling (BIM), with little consideration on incorporating LCC and LCA and their maximised usage within the BIM environment. The aim of this paper is to propose the development of a model-based LCC and LCA tool in order to provide sustainable building design decisions for clients, architects and quantity surveyors, by then an optimal investment decision can be made by studying the trade-off between costs and environmental impacts. An application framework is also proposed finally as the future work that shows how the proposed model can be incorporated into the BIM environment in practise.

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A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.

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A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.

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This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4oC by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450ppm CO2e and leads to a 2oC increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.