Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models

The relationship between biases in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric blocking frequency and extratropical cyclone track density is investigated in 12 CMIP5 climate models to identify mechanisms underlying climate model biases and inform future model development. Biases in the Greenland blocking and summer Pacific blocking frequencies are associated with biases in the storm track latitudes while biases in winter European blocking frequency are related to the North Atlantic storm track tilt and Mediterranean cyclone density. However, biases in summer European and winter Pacific blocking appear less related with cyclone track density. Furthermore, the models with smaller biases in winter European blocking frequency have smaller biases in the cyclone density in Europe, which suggests that they are different aspects of the same bias. This is not found elsewhere in the NH. The summer North Atlantic and the North Pacific mean CMIP5 track density and blocking biases might therefore have different origins.

A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability

We construct a two-variable model which describes the interaction between local baroclinicity and eddy heat flux in order to understand aspects of the variance in storm tracks. It is a heuristic model for diabatically forced baroclinic instability close to baroclinic neutrality. The two-variable model has the structure of a nonlinear oscillator. It exhibits some realistic properties of observed storm track variability, most notably the intermittent nature of eddy activity. This suggests that apparent threshold behaviour can be more accurately and succinctly described by a simple nonlinearity. An analogy is drawn with triggering of convective events.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

The lifecycle of the North Atlantic storm track

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability, with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle and north. Here we examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. We investigate the changes in the storm track characteristics for the three jet locations, and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. Our results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatio-temporal lifecycle.

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.

Caught in the eye of the storm: a qualitative study of views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate in child and adolescent ADHD treatment

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be treated with stimulant medication such as methylphenidate. Although effective, methylphenidate can cause serious side-effects, including suppressed appetite, growth retardation and sleep problems. A drug holiday is a deliberate interruption of pharmacotherapy for a defined period of time and for a specific clinical purpose, for example for appeasing side-effects. Whilst some international guidelines recommend introducing drug holidays in ADHD treatment, this is not practised routinely. Our aim was to examine the views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate with adults who have responsibility for treatment decisions in children and adolescents with ADHD. Method: In-depth interviews were carried out. Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) practitioners (n=8), General Practitioners (n=8), teachers (n=5), and mothers of children with ADHD (n=4) were interviewed in a UK setting. Interview transcripts were analysed using grounded theory. Results: Methylphenidate eases the experience of the child amid problems at home and at school and once started is mostly continued long-term. Some families do practise short-term drug holidays at weekends and longer-term ones during school holidays. The decision to introduce drug holidays is influenced by the child’s academic progress, the parents’ ability to cope with the child, as well as medication beliefs. Trialling a drug holiday is thought to allow older children to self-assess their ability to manage without medication when they show signs of wanting to discontinue treatment prematurely. Conclusions: Planned drug holidays could address premature treatment cessation by enabling adolescents to assess repercussions under medical supervision.

Climatology, storm morphologies, and environments of tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012

A climatology is developed for tornadoes during 1980–2012 in the British Isles, defined in this article as England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. The climatology includes parent storm type, interannual variability, annual and diurnal cycles, intensities, oc- currence of outbreaks (defined as three or more tornadoes in the same day), geographic distribution, and environmental conditions derived from proximity soundings of tornadoes. Tornado reports are from the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO). Over the 33 years, there were a mean of 34.3 tor- nadoes and 19.5 tornado days (number of days in which at least one tornado occurred) annually. Tornadoes and tornado outbreaks were most commonly produced from linear storms, defined as radar signatures at least 75 km long and approximately 3 times as long as wide. Most (78%) tornadoes occurred in England. The probability of a tornado within 10 km of a point was highest in the south, southeast, and west of England. On average, there were 2.5 tornado outbreaks every year. Where intensity was known, 95% of tornadoes were classified as F0 or F1 with the remainder classified as F2. There were no tornadoes rated F3 or greater during this time period. Tornadoes occurred throughout the year with a maximum from May through October. Finally, tornadoes tended to occur in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Tornadoes in the British Isles were difficult to predict using only sounding-derived parameters because there were no clear thresholds between null, tornadic, outbreak, and significant tornado cases.

Biologia termal das tartarugas Trachemys dorbigni (Duméril & Bibron, 1835) e Trachemys scripta elegans (Wied, 1839) dos lagos de Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil (Testudines, Emydidae)

Nos lagos artificiais dos parques de Porto Alegre, pode-se observar um número muito grande de tartarugas, tanto a nativa Trachemys dorbigni quanto a norte-americana Trachemys scripta elegans estando abundantemente presentes nos mesmos. Este trabalho realizou-se nos lagos do Parque Moinhos de Vento e Jardim Botânico com o objetivo de se obter dados a respeito do comportamento de assoalhamento, interações agressivas realizadas durante esta atividade e biologia termal desses quelônios. Nessas coletas, os exemplares foram marcados, suas temperaturas cloacais registradas e dados morfométricos foram medidos. Realizou-se amostragens no período de setembro de 2003 a outubro de 2004, com coletas de dados para comportamento de assoalhamento e biologia termal ocorrendo quinzenalmente em ambos lagos. As amostragens a respeito das interações agressivas ocorreram durante quatro dias por estação do ano somente no Parque Moinhos de Vento. O padrão de comportamento de assoalhamento encontrado para ambas as espécies foi basicamente do tipo unimodal simétrico para os dois locais de coleta, sendo T. scripta elegans a espécie que ocupou previamente os locais disponíveis para esta atividade. As temperaturas corpóreas de ambas espécies coletadas dentro d’água, foram altamente relacionadas com a temperatura da água, enquanto indivíduos coletados em assoalhamento, apresentaram temperaturas cloacais mais relacionadas com as temperaturas do substrato que estava sendo utilizado, do que com as temperaturas do ar. Foi obtida uma taxa de 2,3 interações agressivas por hora observada, considerando-se esta atividade como bastante freqüente entre as espécies observadas. T. scripta elegans demonstrou-se mais agressiva que T. dorbigni causando, assim, uma interferência no comportamento de assoalhamento da mesma, e apresentando um perfil muito semelhante às características termorregulatórias que possui em seu hábitat natural.

In the eye of the storm: exploring the introduction of environmental issues in the production function in Brazilian companies

This article aims to analyse the introduction of environmental issues in the context of the production function, which has been referred to as the organisational area to lead corporate environmental management. With that purpose, the theoretical references for corporate environmental management and the necessary alterations in production function have been organised to include environmental aspects, especially in terms of product and process development, quality management, and logistics. Considering that this research field still lacks empirical evidence for Brazilian companies, four case studies were conducted using companies located in the country. The environmental management maturity level of those companies tends to follow the rate with which the environmental issue is introduced in production sub-areas, especially in the product development process. However, in most cases we found that the companies had difficulties in structuring the insertion of the environmental dimension in logistics. The final notes point out the distance observed between what is recommended by international literature and the reality of Brazilian companies in the challenge of making the production function environmentally friendly.

Camadas de tempestito grosso (coarse grained storm beds): exemplos do Permiano da bacia do Paraná

Tempestitos grossos constituem camadas delgadas de conglomerado gradando a arenito, com estratificação cruzada seguida de laminação ondulada truncante a simétrica e de drape/flaser de siltito/folhelho. Cinco exemplos extraídos do Permiano da bacia do Paraná ilustram esse tipo de depósito: três deles são de rochas siliciclásticas, contendo bioclastos de bivalves e vertebrados (Formação Rio Bonito-Membro Triunfo e Formação Palermo), enquanto os outros dois são de rochas carbonática e fosfática (respectivamente, formações Teresina e Corumbataí do Grupo Passa Dois). O componente tracional da base do tempestito grosso apresenta-se como arenite quartzoso/lítico ou grainstone oolítico com cimento calcífero preenchendo poros (casos das formações Palermo e Teresina). em sua maioria, os tempestitos grossos constituem pavimentos transgressivos intercalados em folhelhos ou tempestitos finos (arenitos muito finos a folhelhos com estratificação ondulada truncante-hummocky). em outro caso, extraído de subsuperfície, o pavimento transgressivo ocorre na base de uma sucessão progradante de barra de plataforma. O tempestito grosso da Formação Teresina constitui um evento transgressivo sobreposto a depósitos de barra de plataforma.

Unusual early morning development of the equatorial anomaly in the Brazilian sector during the Halloween magnetic storm

The solar events that occurred at the end of October 2003 gave rise to very strong geomagnetic disturbances that peaked twice with Dst values reaching -345 nT around 0000 UT on 30 October and -400 nT around 2300 UT, on the same day. Disturbances in several ionospheric parameters were observed over Brazil. This work will focus on the ionospheric response to the initial westward prompt penetration electric field and on the strong intensification of the equatorial ionization anomaly that occurred because of the electric field polarity reversal that followed in the early morning hours of 29 October. The F layer peak height over the equator first decreased under the strong prompt penetration westward electric field, which was followed by significant height increase under eastward electric field. We have used Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM) with an intensified westward disturbed electric field in the presunrise hours, presumably due to prompt penetration from the magnetosphere, in order to study the effect of such a field in the ionosphere. The simulation results showed that prompt penetration of magnetospheric electric fields of westward polarity to the nightside equatorial region seems to be the most probable cause of the initial F layer height decreases. The intensification of the equatorial ionization anomaly and the unusual enhancement on F layer peak density, which was not modeled by the SUPIM, are explained as caused by the strong eastward electric field that followed the initial phase in combination with a highly variable disturbed meridional/transequatorial wind system as inferred from the F2 layer peak height variations. The highly dynamic wind pattern, with a short-term response (2-4 hours), is compatible with the predictions of some previous theoretical model calculations reported in the literature.