Stabilization, volatility and the equilibrium real exchange rate

In a general equilibrium model. we show that the value of the equilibrium real exchange rate is affected by its own volatility. Risk averse exporters. that make their exporting decision before observing the realization of the real exchange rate. choose to export less the more volatile is the real exchange rate. Therefore the trude balance and the variance of the real exchange rate are negatively related. An increase in the volatility of the real exchange rate for instance deteriorates the trade balance and to restore equilibrium a real exchange rate depreciation has to take place. In the empirical part of the paper we use the traditional (unconditional) standard deviation of RER changes as our measure of RER volatility.We describe the behavior of the RER volatility for Brazil,Argentina and Mexico.Monthly data for the three countries are used. and also daily data for Bruzil. Interesting patterns of volatility could be associated to the nature of the several stabilization plans adopted in those countries and to changes in the exchange rate regimes .

Temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs under asset market segmentation

This paper analyses the welfare consequences of temporary exchange rate-based stabilization programs. Differently than previous papers, however, here we assume that only a fraction of households participates in asset market transactions. With this asset market segmentation assumption, the effects of temporary programs on welfare may change drastically. Households with access to the bonds market are able to protect themselves better from the changes in the inflation rate – although at the cost of a distortion in their consumption path. As a consequence, they may decrease their inflation tax burden – which would increase for the other group of households. By the other side, when these agents that lack the access to the asset markets are credit constrained, they may welcome the program, since the government Is temporally reducing the inflation tax they have to pay. The temporary program could end up benefiting both groups, what could help to understand their popularity.

Robustness and stabilization properties of monetary policy rules in Brazil

Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule under parameter uncertainty with the rule calculated under purely additive uncertainty, we find that parameter uncertainty should make policymakers react less aggressively to the economy's state variables, as suggested by Brainard's "conservatism principIe", although this effect seems to be relatively small. We then informally investigate each rule's robustness by analyzing the performance of policy rules derived from each model under each one of the alternative models. We find that optimal rules derived from each model perform very poorly under alternative models, whereas a simple Taylor rule is relatively robusto We also fmd that even within a specific model, the Taylor rule may perform better than the optimal rule under particularly unfavorable realizations from the policymaker' s loss distribution function.

French wine and the Brazilian consumer

Em um mercado internacional de vinhos cada dia mais competitivo, exportadores franceses estão procurando novos mercados para expandir suas atividades. Nesse cenário o Brasil aparece como um mercado potencial enorme e, por isso, é necessário aos empreendedores o perfeito entendimento das dinâmicas de mercado, a fim de moldar estratégias de marketing eficientes. A primeira etapa é entender o comportamento do consumidor final, a fim de oferecer o produto certo de maneira certa. Essa dissertação tem por objeto a análise dos hábitos de consumo, bem como a percepção do consumidor sobre os vinhos franceses no mercado do vinho brasileiro. A análise será efetuada em função do comportamento do consumidor; portanto, uma atenção especial será dada à demografia, aos hábitos de consumo e as tendências do mercado para os produtos vitivinícolas. Mais precisamente, a investigação tentará identificar diferentes grupos de consumidores com padrões semelhantes, baseados em dados demográficos, consumo atual ou potencial de vinho, e sua percepção particular sobre o vinho francês. A idéia por trás desse processo é a construção de um quadro que pode ajudar a desenvolver estratégias de marketing para profissionais do mercado de vinhos franceses no Brasil, fornecendo a potenciais exportadores uma melhor compreensão sobre como direcionar o seu posicionamento e atingir metas de forma eficaz. A realização desta dissertação foi um desafio importante porque o comportamento do consumidor de vinho no Brasil nao foi estudado inteiramente. É muito difícil hoje para exportadores franceses que desejam compreender melhor o consumidor brasileiro de vinho encontrar qualquer estudo ou análise. A fim de fazer isso, a literatura sobre o mercado do vinho brasileiro foi utilizada (especificidades dos produtos, produção, dados de consumo, etc.). A literatura também inclui os fatores de decisão que influenciam os consumidores nas suas decisões de compra, o que é uma questão muito complexa quando se trata de vinho. Finalmente, a literatura sobre as estratégias de marketing foi revista, a fim de avaliar o tanto o impacto potencial como a relevância para o mercado brasileiro. A segunda etapa do estudo foi a apresentação de questionários a consumidores brasileiros e a análise, com o intuito de determinar as preferências dos consumidores e compreender a percepção do vinho francês. O objetivo foi identificar potenciais grupos alvos para os produtores franceses de vinho.

Labor earnings dynamics in post-stabilization Brazil

This paper analyzes both the levels and evolution of wage inequality in the Brazilian formal labor market using administrative data from the Brazilian Ministry of Labor (RAIS) from 1994 to 2009. After the covariance structure of the log of real weekly wages is estimated and the variance of the log of real weekly wages is decomposed into its permanent and transitory components, we verify that nearly 60% of the inequality within age and education groups is explained by the permanent component, i.e., by time-invariant individual productive characteristics. During this period, wage inequality decreased by 29%. In the rst years immediately after the macroeconomic stabilization (1994

The Sao Paulo stock exchange and the economic stabilization

The inflationary stabilization recently observed in Brazil brings a lot of changes in all aspects of the country’s economic life. In this work we look at the impacts on the stock market, specifically at Bovespa - the São Paulo Stock Exchange. We analyze the leading variables and statistics that describe Bovespa’s behavior, such as volatility and systematic risk, comparing the four years preceding and the four years after 1994, when the Real Plan was implemented. In order to eliminate exogenous influences, we use control series made with international Stock Exchanges Indexes. The results show that after 1994 there was reduced volatility, increased trade volume, reduced efficiency of the Bovespa Index and no changes in systematic risk.

Evolution of ethyl carbamate during Madeira wine ageing by GC-MS: a new methodology

Recently, ethyl carbamate (EC) was reclassified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as "probably carcinogenic to humans" and occurs mainly in fermented beverages. Nowadays many countries have set limit values for EC in alcoholic beverages. In this sense and taking into account the low concentrations found in alcoholic beverages, the scientific community has shown interest for the development of new analytical methods, whereby its simplification plays an important role in the EC control and prevention. Firstly, a simple, rapid and sensitive methodology was developed for the EC quantification in fortified wines by microextraction by packed sorbent (MEPS) with gas chromatography coupled with a mass spectrometer detector (GC-MS). This method showed good linearity (R2 = 0.999) and sensitivity (LOD = 1.5 μg/L). The accuracy of the method was assessed by means of repeatability and reproducibility (RSD < 7%). Moreover, a good recovery has been demonstrated (97 – 106%) as well as its applicability (16 fortified wines). Thus, the developed methodology has proven to be an excellent approach for routine quantification of EC in fortified wines. The EC evolution was also evaluated during a year and half of Madeira wine ageing submitted to two traditional ageing methods, estufagem and canteiro, in order to evaluate the formation kinetic. The results revealed that estufagem process increased the formation kinetic and promoted a linear increase of the EC concentration (R2 ≥ 0.977), proportionally to the ageing time (4 months). However, when the wines are firstly submitted to estufagem and then undergo canteiro ageing, the EC values remain almost constant during the following 14 months. The results suggest that estufagem does not seem to be the critical factor in the EC formation, but instead the amount of precursors in the medium.

Analytical characterization of the aroma of Tinta Negra Mole red wine: Identification of the main odorants compounds

A method for the simultaneous determination of major and minor volatiles composition in different types (dry, medium dry, sweet and medium sweet) of a young Tinta Negra Mole (TNM) monovarietal red wine from 2003 harvest has been validated. Wine samples preparation includes a dichloromethane liquid–liquid extraction followed by concentration under a nitrogen atmosphere. The extracted fraction was analysed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry and give quantitative information for more than 86 analytes whose concentration range from few μg l−1 to 259.1 mg l−1. The method enables high recovery of volatile compounds in wine good linearity with (r2) values higher than 0.980 and good sensitivity. The limits of detection range from 0.003 to 0.534 mg l−1 and limits of quantification from 0.009 to 1.170 mg l−1. The method allows satisfactory determination of more than 80 compounds in the TNM red wines. These wines are characterized by a high content of higher alcohols, ethyl esters, fatty acids and lactones. The levels of sulphur compounds in Tinta Negra Mole medium sweet wines are very low, but they have the highest concentration of carbonyl compounds. Quantitative analysis of the main odorants followed by the determination of aroma index allow us elucidate the aroma of these varieties. On the basis of their odour description and odour threshold, the most powerful odorants of Tinta Negra Mole wines were tentatively established.

Impact of forced-aging process on Madeira Wine flavor

The aim of this study was to determine the optimal temperature and baking time to obtain a Madeira wine considered typical by an expert panel. For this purpose simultaneous descriptive analyses of typical Madeira wines were performed, and seven descriptors were selected: “dried fruit”, “nutty”, “musty”, “baked”, “oak”, “mushroom”, and “brown sugar”. Up to 10 odor-active zones were the most frequently cited by the members of the GC-olfactometry panel as corresponding to the panel’s descriptors. The odor importance of each of the zones reported by the GC-O analysis was ranked by AEDA. Three odor zones were identified as common to both Malvasia and Sercial wines and had retention indices (RI) of 1993 (“brown sugar” and “toasted”), 2151 (“brown sugar”), and 2174 (“nutty”, “driedfruits”);sotolonwasidentifiedasresponsibleforthislastaroma.Severalmoleculeswereselected to be quantified on baked wines on the basis of AEDA results and expected Maillard volatiles, such as sotolon, furfural, 5-methylfurfural, 5-ethoximethylfurfural, methional, and phenylacetaldehyde. It was observed that typicity scores were positively correlated with the concentrations of sotolon and sugar and baking time and negatively with the fermentation length.

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometry combined with solid phase microextraction as a powerful tool for quantification of ethyl carbamate in fortified wines. The case study of Madeira wine

An analytical methodology based on headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography—time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC–ToFMS) was developed for the identification and quantification of the toxic contaminant ethyl carbamate (EC) directly in fortified wines. The method performance was assessed for dry/medium dry and sweet/medium sweet model wines, and for quantification purposes, calibration plots were performed for both matrices using the ion extraction chromatography (IEC) mode (m/z 62). Good linearity was obtained with a regression coefficient (r2) higher than 0.981. A good precision was attained (R.S.D. <20%) and low detection limits (LOD) were achieved for dry (4.31 μg/L) and sweet (2.75 μg/L) model wines. The quantification limits (LOQ) and recovery for dry wines were 14.38 μg/L and 88.6%, whereas for sweet wines were 9.16 μg/L and 99.4%, respectively. The higher performance was attainted with sweet model wine, as increasing of glucose content improves the volatile compound in headspace, and a better linearity, recovery and precision were achieved. The analytical methodology was applied to analyse 20 fortified Madeira wines including different types of wine (dry, medium dry, sweet, and medium sweet) obtained from several harvests in Madeira Island (Portugal). The EC levels ranged from 54.1 μg/L (medium dry) to 162.5 μg/L (medium sweet).

New method for determination of (E)resveratrol in wine based on microextraction using packed sorbent and ultra-performance liquid chromatography

An ultra-fast and improved analytical methodology based on microextraction by packed sorbent (MEPS) combined with ultra-performance LC (UPLC) was developed and validated for determination of (E)-resveratrol in wines. Important factors affecting the performance of MEPS such as the type of sorbent material (C2, C8, C18, SIL, and M1), number of extraction cycles, and sample volume were studied. The optimal conditions of MEPS extraction were obtained using C8 sorbent and small sample volumes (50–250mL) in one extraction cycle (extract–discard) and in a short time period (about 3 min for the entire sample preparation step). (E)-Resveratrol was eluted by 1 250mL of the mixture containing 95% methanol and 5% water, and the separation was carried out on a highstrength silica HSS T3 analytical column (100 mm 2.1 mm, 1.8mm particle size) using a binary mobile phase composed of aqueous 0.1% formic acid (eluent A) and methanol (eluent B) in the gradient elution mode (10 min of total analysis). The method was fully validated in terms of linearity, detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) limits, extraction yield, accuracy, and inter/intra-day precision, using a Madeira wine sample (ET) spiked with (E)-resveratrol at concentration levels ranging from 5 to 60mg/mL. Validation experiments revealed very good recovery rate of 9575.8% RSD, good linearity with r2 values 40.999 within the established concentration range, excellent repeatability (0.52%), and reproducibility (1.67%) values (expressed as RSD), thus demonstrating the robustness and accuracy of the MEPSC8/UPLC-photodiode array (PDA) method. The LOD of the method was 0.21mg/mL, whereas the LOQ was 0.68mg/mL. The validated methodology was applied to 30 commercial wines (24 red wines and six white wines) from different grape varieties, vintages, and regions. On the basis of the analytical validation, the MEPSC8/UPLC-PDA methodology shows to be an improved, sensitive, and ultra-fast approach for determination of (E)-resveratrol in wines with high resolving power within 6 min.

HPLC-DAD methodology for the quantification of organic acids, furans and polyphenols by direct injection of wine samples

This article proposes a simple and sensitive HPLC method with photo-diode array detection for the analysis of organic acids, monomeric polyphenols and furanic compounds in wine samples by direct injection. The chromatographic separation of 8 organic acids, 2 furans and 22 phenolic compounds was carried out with a buffered solution (pH 2.70) and acetonitrile as mobile phases and a difunctionally bonded C18 stationary phase, Atlantis dC18 (250 4.6 mm, 5mm) column. The elution was performed in 12 min for the organic acids and in 60 min for the phenolic compounds, including phenolic acids, stilbenes and flavonoids. Target compounds were detected at 210 nm (organic acids, flavan-3-ols and benzoic acids), 254 nm (ellagic acid), 280 nm (furans and cinnamic acid), 315 nm (hydroxycinnamic acids and trans-resveratrol) and 360 nm (flavonoids). The RSD for the repeatability test (n55) of peak area and retention times were below 3.1 and 0.3%, respectively, for phenolics and below 1.0 and 0.2% for organic acids. The RSDs expressing the reproducibility of the method were higher than for the repeatability results but all below 9.0%. Method accuracy was evaluated by the recovery results, with averaged values between 80 and 104% for polyphenols and 97–105% for organic acids. The calibration curves, obtained by triplicate injection of standard solutions, showed good linearity with regression coefficients higher than 0.9982 for polyphenols and 0.9997 for organic acids. The LOD was in the range of 0.07–0.49 mg/L for polyphenols (cinnamic and gallic acids, respectively) and 0.001–0.046 g/L for organic acids (oxalic and lactic acids, respectively). The method was successfully used to measure and assess the polyphenolic fingerprint and organic acids profile of red, white, rose ´ and fortified wines.

Simultaneous analysis of free amino acids and biogenic amines in honey and wine samples using in loop orthophthalaldeyde derivatization procedure

This work presents a RP-HPLC method for the simultaneous quantification of free amino acids and biogenic amines in liquid food matrices and the results of the application to honey and wine samples obtained from different production processes and geographic origins. The developed methodology is based on a pre-column derivatization with o-phthaldialdehyde carried out in the sample injection loop. The compounds were separated in a Nova-Pack RP-C18 column (150 mm × 3.9 mm, 4 μm) at 35 °C. The mobile phase used was a mixture of phase A: 10 mM sodium phosphate buffer (pH 7.3), methanol and tetrahydrofuran (91:8:1); and phase B: methanol and phosphate buffer (80:20), with a flow rate of 1.0 ml/min. Fluorescence detection was used at an excitation wavelength of 335 nm and an emission wavelength of 440 nm. The separation and quantification of 19 amino acids and 6 amines was carried out in a single run as their OPA/MCE derivatives elute within 80 min, ensuring a reproducible quantification. The method showed to be adequate for the purpose, with an average RSD of 2% for the different amino acids; detection limits varying between 0.71 mg/l (Asn) and 8.26 mg/l (Lys) and recovery rates between 63.0% (Cad) and 98.0% (Asp). The amino acids present at the highest concentration in honey and wine samples were phenylalanine and arginine, respectively. Only residual levels of biogenic amines were detected in the analysed samples.