Regulating Concessions of Toll Motorways, An Empirical Study on Fixed vs. Variable Term Contracts

Recent theoretical developments on concession contracts for long term infrastructure projects under uncertain demand show the benefits of allowing for flexible term contracts rather than fixing a rigid term. This study presents a simulation to compare both alternatives by using real data from the oldest Spanish toll motorway. For this purpose, we analyze how well the flexible term would have performed instead of the fixed length actually established. Our results show a huge reduction of the term of concession that would have dramatically decreased the firm’s benefits and the user’s overpayment due to the internalization of an unexpected traffic increase.

A 37-kb restriction map of the human immunoglobulin lambda variable locus, VB cluster, harboring four functional genes and two non-coding Vl sequences

The human immunoglobulin lambda variable locus (IGLV) is mapped at chromosome 22 band q11.1-q11.2. The 30 functional germline v-lambda genes sequenced untill now have been subgrouped into 10 families (Vl1 to Vl10). The number of Vl genes has been estimated at approximately 70. This locus is formed by three gene clusters (VA, VB and VC) that encompass the variable coding genes (V) responsible for the synthesis of lambda-type Ig light chains, and the Jl-Cl cluster with the joining segments and the constant genes. Recently the entire variable lambda gene locus was mapped by contig methodology and its one- megabase DNA totally sequenced. All the known functional V-lambda genes and pseudogenes were located. We screened a human genomic DNA cosmid library and isolated a clone with an insert of 37 kb (cosmid 8.3) encompassing four functional genes (IGLV7S1, IGLV1S1, IGLV1S2 and IGLV5a), a pseudogene (VlA) and a vestigial sequence (vg1) to study in detail the positions of the restriction sites surrounding the Vl genes. We generated a high resolution restriction map, locating 31 restriction sites in 37 kb of the VB cluster, a region rich in functional Vl genes. This mapping information opens the perspective for further RFLP studies and sequencing

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Représentation d'un polynôme par un circuit arithmétique et chaînes additives

Un circuit arithmétique dont les entrées sont des entiers ou une variable x et dont les portes calculent la somme ou le produit représente un polynôme univarié. On assimile la complexité de représentation d'un polynôme par un circuit arithmétique au nombre de portes multiplicatives minimal requis pour cette modélisation. Et l'on cherche à obtenir une borne inférieure à cette complexité, et cela en fonction du degré d du polynôme. A une chaîne additive pour d, correspond un circuit arithmétique pour le monôme de degré d. La conjecture de Strassen prétend que le nombre minimal de portes multiplicatives requis pour représenter un polynôme de degré d est au moins la longueur minimale d'une chaîne additive pour d. La conjecture de Strassen généralisée correspondrait à la même proposition lorsque les portes du circuit arithmétique ont degré entrant g au lieu de 2. Le mémoire consiste d'une part en une généralisation du concept de chaînes additives, et une étude approfondie de leur construction. On s'y intéresse d'autre part aux polynômes qui peuvent être représentés avec très peu de portes multiplicatives (les d-gems). On combine enfin les deux études en lien avec la conjecture de Strassen. On obtient en particulier de nouveaux cas de circuits vérifiant la conjecture.

A comparative study of the resilience of coal logistics chains in Australia, South Africa and Canada

Au cours des dernières années l'industrie du charbon a connu un essor important. L'importance du charbon dans l'économie mondiale provient d'une demande mondiale soutenue et de niveaux de production en hausse constante. De ce fait, le nombre élevé d'importateurs et d'exportateurs est à l'origine d'un système d'échange complexe où la compétition est féroce. En effet, un nombre grandissant de pays importateurs se partagent les sources d'approvisionnement tandis qu'un nombre limité de pays exportateurs s'efforcent de répondre à la demande tout en essayant de s'accaparer le plus de parts du marché mondial. L'objectif de cette recherche s'inscrit dans ce contexte en démontrant les bénéfices associés aux chaînes logistiques résilientes pour tout acteur de l'industrie soucieux de devancer la compétition. Une analyse de la logistique de l'industrie du charbon permet entre autres de se pencher sur les questions suivantes: Comment les infrastructures influencent-elles la résilience d'une chaîne logistique? Quels risques est-ce que les catastrophes naturelles présentent pour une chaîne logistique? Comment la gouvernance influence-t-elle la résilience d'une chaîne logistique? Une chaîne logistique représente le trajet effectué par un bien ou produit au cours de son cycle de vie, du point d'origine au point de consommation. Ceci étant dit, le meilleur moyen de régler les problèmes inhérents aux chaînes logistiques est de maintenir de hauts niveaux de résilience. Cette recherche évaluera donc la résilience de chaînes logistiques du charbon des industries australienne, sud-africaine et canadienne. Pour ce faire, trois variables seront étudiées: les infrastructures, les catastrophes naturelles et la gouvernance. La comparaison des trois cas à l'étude se fera par un nombre défini d'indicateurs (12 au total) pour chacune des variables étudiées. Les résultats de cette recherche démontrent que la résilience des trois cas à l'étude se ressemble. Cependant, certaines chaînes logistiques détiennent des avantages comparatifs qui améliorent grandement leur résilience et leur compétitivité. Plusieurs sujets de recherche pourraient être utilisés pour compléter cette recherche. L'analyse comparative pourrait être appliquée à d'autres chaînes logistiques pour vérifier la viabilité des résultats. Une analyse semblable pourrait également être entreprise pour le secteur en aval de la chaîne logistique. Finalement, une méthodologie basée sur des interviews pourrait ajouter un regard différent sur les questions abordées.

Étude in vivo de la relation entre la structure et la fonction de la boucle variable de l'ARN de transfert de la sélénocystéine d'E. coli

La sélénocystéine est le 21e acide aminé encodé génétiquement et on la retrouve à travers les trois domaines de la vie. Elle est synthétisée sur l'ARNtSec par un processus unique. L'ARNtSec se distingue également au niveau structural. La tige acceptrice possède 8 (procaryotes) et 9 (eucaryotes) paires de bases, contrairement aux ARNt canoniques qui ont invariablement 7 paires de bases dans la tige acceptrice. De plus, la tige D a 2 paires de bases additionnelles qui remplacent les interactions tertiaires universelles 8-14, 15-48 qui sont absentes chez l'ARNtSec. D'autre part, la longueur de la boucle variable de l'ARNtSec est plus longue que la majorité des ARNt de type II. Dans ce mémoire, on se concentre sur la région de la boucle variable de l'ARNtSec . La recherche consiste à distinguer les paires de bases de la boucle variable qui sont essentielles à la biosynthèse et l’insertion de la sélénocystéine. De plus, on regarde si la paire de base additionnelle de la tige acceptrice de l'ARNtSec (procaryote) est essentielle pour l'insertion de la sélénocystéine. Pour répondre à ces questions, on a utilisé l'approche expérimentale Évolution Instantanée qui consiste au criblage in vivo d'ARNtSec fonctionnels chez E. coli. Dans ce travail, on montre que l'insertion de la sélénocystéine ne nécessite pas une spécificité de la longueur ou de la séquence de l'ARNtSec. On montre aussi que ni la longueur de la tige acceptrice ou du domaine tige acceptrice/tige T n'est essentielle pour avoir un ARNtSec fonctionnel.

Modelling heterotachy in phylogenetic inference by reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

The rate at which a given site in a gene sequence alignment evolves over time may vary. This phenomenon-known as heterotachy-can bias or distort phylogenetic trees inferred from models of sequence evolution that assume rates of evolution are constant. Here, we describe a phylogenetic mixture model designed to accommodate heterotachy. The method sums the likelihood of the data at each site over more than one set of branch lengths on the same tree topology. A branch-length set that is best for one site may differ from the branch-length set that is best for some other site, thereby allowing different sites to have different rates of change throughout the tree. Because rate variation may not be present in all branches, we use a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to identify those branches in which reliable amounts of heterotachy occur. We implement the method in combination with our 'pattern-heterogeneity' mixture model, applying it to simulated data and five published datasets. We find that complex evolutionary signals of heterotachy are routinely present over and above variation in the rate or pattern of evolution across sites, that the reversible-jump method requires far fewer parameters than conventional mixture models to describe it, and serves to identify the regions of the tree in which heterotachy is most pronounced. The reversible-jump procedure also removes the need for a posteriori tests of 'significance' such as the Akaike or Bayesian information criterion tests, or Bayes factors. Heterotachy has important consequences for the correct reconstruction of phylogenies as well as for tests of hypotheses that rely on accurate branch-length information. These include molecular clocks, analyses of tempo and mode of evolution, comparative studies and ancestral state reconstruction. The model is available from the authors' website, and can be used for the analysis of both nucleotide and morphological data.

Inference on microsatellite mutation processes in the invasive mite, Varroa destructor, using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite of the Eastern honeybee Apis cerana. Fifty years ago, two distinct evolutionary lineages (Korean and Japanese) invaded the Western honeybee Apis mellifera. This haplo-diploid parasite species reproduces mainly through brother sister matings, a system which largely favors the fixation of new mutations. In a worldwide sample of 225 individuals from 21 locations collected on Western honeybees and analyzed at 19 microsatellite loci, a series of de novo mutations was observed. Using historical data concerning the invasion, this original biological system has been exploited to compare three mutation models with allele size constraints for microsatellite markers: stepwise (SMM) and generalized (GSM) mutation models, and a model with mutation rate increasing exponentially with microsatellite length (ESM). Posterior probabilities of the three models have been estimated for each locus individually using reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The relative support of each model varies widely among loci, but the GSM is the only model that always receives at least 9% support, whatever the locus. The analysis also provides robust estimates of mutation parameters for each locus and of the divergence time of the two invasive lineages (67,000 generations with a 90% credibility interval of 35,000-174,000). With an average of 10 generations per year, this divergence time fits with the last post-glacial Korea Japan land separation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anion-directed synthesis of metal-organic frameworks based on 2-picolinate Cu(II) complexes: a ferromagnetic alternating chain and two unprecedented ferromagnetic fish backbone chains

Three new polynuclear copper(II) complexes of 2-picolinic acid (Hpic), {[Cu-2(pic)(3)(H2O)]ClO4}(n) (1), {[Cu-2(pic)(3)(H2O)]BF4}(n) (2), and [Cu-2(pic)3(H2O)(2)(NO3)](n) (3), have been synthesized by reaction of the "metalloligand" [Cu-(pic)(2)] with the corresponding copper(II) salts. The compounds are characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction analyses and variable-temperature magnetic measurements. Compounds 1 and 2 are isomorphous and crystallize in the triclinic system with space group P (1) over bar, while 3 crystallizes in the monoclinic system with space group P2(1)/n. The structural analyses reveal that complexes 1 and 2 are constructed by "fish backbone" chains through syn-anti (equatorial-equatorial) carboxylate bridges, which are linked to one another by syn-anti (equatorial-axial) carboxylate bridges, giving rise to a rectangular grid-like two-dimensional net. Complex 3 is formed by alternating chains of syn-anti carboxylate-bridged copper(II) atoms, which are linked together by strong H bonds involving coordinated nitrate ions and water molecules and uncoordinated oxygen atoms from carboxylate groups. The different coordination ability of the anions along with their involvement in the H-bonding network seems to be responsible for the difference in the final polymeric structures. Variable-temperature (2-300 K) magnetic susceptibility measurement shows the presence of weak ferromagnetic coupling for all three complexes that have been fitted with a fish backbone model developed for 1 and 2 (J = 1.74 and 0.99 cm(-1); J' = 0.19 and 0.25 cm(-1), respectively) and an alternating chain model for 3 (J = 1.19 cm(-1) and J' = 1.19 cm(-1)).

The component polypeptide chains of bovine insulin nucleate or inhibit aggregation of the parent protein in a conformation-dependent manner

Amyloid fibrils are typically rigid, unbrariched structures with diameters of similar to 10 nm and lengths up to several micrometres, and are associated with more than 20 diseases including Alzheimer's disease and type II diabetes. Insulin is a small, predominantly alpha-helical protein consisting of 51 residues in two disulfide-linked polypeptide chains that readily assembles into amyloid fibrils under conditions of low PH and elevated temperature. We demonstrate here that both the A-chain and the B-chain of insulin are capable of forming amyloid fibrils in isolation under similar conditions, with fibrillar morphologies that differ from those composed of intact insulin. Both the A-chain and B-chain fibrils were found to be able to cross-seed the fibrillization of the parent protein, although these reactions were substantially less efficient than self-seeding with fibrils composed of full-length insulin. In both cases, the cross-seeded fibrils were morphologically distinct from the seeding, material, but shared common characteristics with typical insulin fibrils, including a very similar helical repeat. The broader distribution of heights of the cross-seeded fibrils compared to typical insulin fibrils, however, indicates that their underling protofilament hierarchy may be subtly different. In addition, and remarkably in view of this seeding behavior, the soluble forms of the A-chain and B-chain peptides were found to be capable of inhibiting insulin fibril formation. Studies using mass spectrometry suggest that this behavior might be attributable to complex formation between insulin and the A-chain and B-chain peptides. The finding that the same chemical form of a polypeptide chain in different physical states can either stimulate or inhibit the conversion of a protein into amyloid fibrils sheds new light on the mechanisms underlying fibril formation, fibril strain propagation and amyloid disease initiation and progression. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of a reduced Schiff-Base ligand to prepare novel chloro-bridged chains of rare Cu(II) trinuclear complexes with mixed azido/oxo and chloro/oxo bridges

Two mixed bridged one-dimensional (1D) polynuclear complexes, [Cu3L2(mu(1,1)-N-3)(2)(mu-Cl)Cl](n) (1) and {[Cu3L2(mu-Cl)(3)Cl]center dot 0.46CH(3)OH}(n), (2), have been synthesized using the tridentate reduced Schiff-base ligand HL (2-[(2-dimethylamino-ethylamino)-methyl]-phenol). The complexes have been characterized by X-ray structural analyses and variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements. In both complexes the basic trinuclear angular units are joined together by weak chloro bridges to form a 1D chain. The trinuclear structure of 1 is composed of two terminal square planar [Cu(L)(mu(1,1)-N-3)] units connected by a central Cu(II) atom through bridging nitrogen atoms of end-on azido ligands and the phenoxo oxygen atom of the tridentate ligand. These four coordinating atoms along with a chloride ion form a distorted trigonal bipyramidal geometry around the central Cu(II). The structure of 2 is similar; the only difference being a Cl bridge replacing the mu(1,1)-N-3 bridge in the trinuclear unit. The magnetic properties of both trinuclear complexes can be very well reproduced with a simple linear symmetrical trimer model (H = JS(i)S(i+1)) with only one intracluster exchange coupling (J) including a weak intertrimer interaction (.j) reproduced with the molecular field approximation. This model provides very satisfactory fits for both complexes in the whole temperature range with the following parameters: g = 2.136(3), J = 93.9(3) cm(-1) and zj= -0.90(3) cm(-1) (z = 2) for 1 and g = 2.073(7), J = -44.9(4) cm(-1) and zJ = -1.26(6) cm(-1) (z = 2) for 2.

Enhancing the catalytic repertoire of nucleic acids: a systematic study of linker length and rigidity

The incorporation of potentially catalytic groups in DNA is of interest for the in vitro selection of novel deoxyribozymes, A series of 10 C5-modified analogues of 2'-deoxyuridine triphosphate have been synthesised that possess side chains of differing flexibility and bearing a primary amino or imidazole functionality, For each series of nucleotide analogues differing degrees of flexibility of the C5 side chain was achieved through the use of alkynyl, alkenyl and alkyl moieties, The imidazole function was conjugated to these CS-amino-modified nucleotides using either imidazole 4-acetic acid or imidazole 4-acrylic acid (urocanic acid), The substrate properties of the nucleotides (fully replacing dTTP) with Taq polymerase during PCR have been investigated in order to evaluate their potential applications for in vitro selection experiments, 5-(3-Aminopropynyl)dUTP and 5-(E-3-aminopropenyl)dUTP and their imidazole 4-acetic acid- and urocanic acid-modified conjugates were found to be substrates, In contrast, C5-amino-modified dUTPs with alkane or Z-alkene linkers and their corresponding conjugates were not substrates, The incorporation of these analogues during PCR has been confirmed by inhibition of restriction enzyme digestion using XbaI and by mass spectrometry of the PCR products.

Control of strand registry by attachment of PEG chains to amyloid peptides influences nanostructure

The self-assembly in aqueous solution of PEG-peptide conjugates comprising a model amyloid peptide sequence FFKLVFF that contains the Ab(16–20) KLVFF motif is investigated. X-ray diffraction reveals different packing motifs dependent on PEG chain length. This is correlated to remarkable differences in self-assembled nanostructures. The control of strand registry points to a subtle interplay between aromatic stacking, electrostatic and amphiphilic interactions.

Complex formation in solutions of oppositely charged polyelectrolytes at different polyion compositions and salt content

The formation of complexes in solutions containing positively charged polyions (polycations) and a variable amount of negatively charged polyions (polyanions) has been investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The polyions were described as flexible chains of charged hard spheres interacting through a screened Coulomb potential. The systems were analyzed in terms of cluster compositions, structure factors, and radial distribution functions. At 50% charge equivalence or less, complexes involving two polycations and one polyanion were frequent, while closer to charge equivalence, larger clusters were formed. Small and neutral complexes dominated the solution at charge equivalence in a monodisperse system, while larger clusters again dominated the solution when the polyions were made polydisperse. The cluster composition and solution structure were also examined as functions of added salt by varying the electrostatic screening length. The observed formation of clusters could be rationalized by a few simple rules.

A generalised Bayesian instrumental variable approach under student t-distributed errors with application

Bayesian analysis is given of an instrumental variable model that allows for heteroscedasticity in both the structural equation and the instrument equation. Specifically, the approach for dealing with heteroscedastic errors in Geweke (1993) is extended to the Bayesian instrumental variable estimator outlined in Rossi et al. (2005). Heteroscedasticity is treated by modelling the variance for each error using a hierarchical prior that is Gamma distributed. The computation is carried out by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm with an augmented draw for the heteroscedastic case. An example using real data illustrates the approach and shows that ignoring heteroscedasticity in the instrument equation when it exists may lead to biased estimates.