German companies strengthen their cooperation with Russian gas suppliers. OSW Commentary No. 64, 2011-10-24

Germany’s decision to give up the use of nuclear energy will force it to find a conventional low-carbon energy source as a replacement; in the short term, in addition to coal, this is likely to be gas. Due to their continued high debt and the losses associated with the end of atomic power, German companies will not be able to spend large funds on investing in conventional energy. First of all, they will aim to raise capital and repay their debts. The money for this will come from selling off their less profitable assets; this will include sales on the gas market. This will create opportunities for natural gas exporters and extraction companies such as Gazprom to buy back some of the German companies’ assets (electricity companies, for example). The German companies will probably continue to seek to recover the costs incurred in the investment projects already underway, such as Nord Stream, the importance of which will grow after Russian gas imports increase. At the same time, because of their debts, the German companies will seek to minimise their investment costs by selling some shares on the conventional energy market, to Russian corporations among others; the latter would thus be able to increase their stake in the gas market in both Western (Germany, Great Britain, the Benelux countries) and Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic). It is possible that while establishing the details of cooperation between the Russian and German companies, Russia will try to put pressure on Germany to give up competing projects such as Nabucco. However, a well-diversified German energy market should be able to defend itself against attempts to increase German dependence on Russian gas supplies and the dictates of high prices.

The Iasi-Ungheni pipeline: a means of achieving energy independence from Russia? Moldova's attempts at gas supply diversification. OSW Commentary No. 118, 2013-10-08

Since taking power in 2009, the Alliance for European Integration (AIE) has been trying to end Moldova’s dependence on Russian gas. Currently, natural gas accounts for about 50% of the country’s energy balance (excluding Transnistria), and Gazprom has a monopoly on the supply of gas to the republic. The key element of Chișinău’s diversification project is the construction of the Iasi-Ungheni pipeline, which is designed to link the Moldovan and Romanian gas transmission networks, and consequently make it possible for Moldova to purchase gas from countries other than Russia. Despite significant delays, construction work on the interconnector began in August 2013. The Moldovan government sees ensuring energy independence from Russia as its top priority. The significance and urgency of the project reflect Chișinău’s frustration at Moscow’s continued attempts to use its monopoly of Moldova’s energy sector to exert political pressure on the republic. Nonetheless, despite numerous declarations by Moldovan and Romanian politicians, the Iasi- -Ungheni pipeline will not end Moldova’s dependence on Russian gas before the end of the current decade. This timeframe is unrealistic for two reasons: first, because an additional gas pipeline from Ungheni to Chisinau and a compression station must be constructed, which will take at least five years and will require significant investment; and second, because of the unrelenting opposition to the project coming from Gazprom, which currently controls Moldova’s pipelines and will likely try to torpedo any energy diversification attempts. Independence from Russian gas will only be possible after the the Gazprom-controlled Moldova-GAZ, the operator of the Moldovan transmission network and the country’s importer of natural gas, is divided. The division of the company has in fact been envisaged in the EU’s Third Energy Package, which is meant to be implemented by Moldova in 2020.

Europe's LNG Strategy in the Wider EU Gas Market. CEPS Policy Brief No. 333, October 2015

In its Communication on an Energy Union published in February 2015, the European Commission committed itself to “explore the full potential of liquefied natural gas (LNG), including as a back-up in crisis situations when insufficient gas is coming into Europe through the existing pipeline system” and to address the potential of gas storage in Europe by developing a comprehensive LNG and storage strategy by the end of 2015 or early in 2016. This is a comprehensible move in the current context. Geopolitical tensions between the EU and Russia explain the EU’s willingness to further diversify its supply sources of natural gas to reinforce its long-term energy security on the one hand, and to strengthen its ability to solve future crises on the other hand. Moreover, the current market dynamics could support diversification towards LNG. Increasing the flexibility of LNG trade, decreasing LNG prices and LNG charter rates and an apparent price convergence between the European and the Asia-Pacific LNG imports would all reinforce the economic viability of such a strategy. This Policy Brief makes three main points: • For the LNG and gas storage strategy to work, it needs to be embedded in the realities of the natural gas market. • The key to a successful LNG strategy is to develop sufficient infrastructure. • The LNG strategy needs an innovation component.

Gas demand for power generation peaked as early as 2010. CEPS Commentary, 12 February 2016

The outlook for natural gas demand is often considered bright, especially for gas used to generate electricity. This is because gas is the cleanest of all fossil fuels. The carbon intensity of modern gas-fired power stations is less than 50% that of modern coal plants. Moreover, gas-fired units are well-suited to follow rapid swings in supply and demand due to their flexibility. In the future, these balancing tasks will become more and more important given the intermittent character of the supply of wind and solar power. Gas seems to hold out the promise of being a key pillar of the energy transition and the perfect partner of renewables. Given the EU’s long-term climate policy goals, however, there is strong evidence that demand for gas for purposes of power generation peaked as early as 2010.

(Table 2) Methane to ethane ratio, and d13C-methane at DSDP Hole 76-533

Natural gas hydrates are clathrates in which water molecules form a crystalline framework that includes and is stabilized by natural gas (mainly methane) at appropriate conditions of high pressures and low temperatures. The conditions for the formation of gas hydrates are met within continental margin sediments below water depths greater than about 500 m where the supply of methane is sufficient to stabilize the gas hydrate. Observations on DSDP Leg 11 suggested the presence of gas hydrates in sediments of the Blake Outer Ridge. Leg 76 coring and sampling confirms that, indeed, gas hydrates are present there. Geochemical evidence for gas hydrates in sediment of the Blake Outer Ridge includes (1) high concentrations of methane, (2) a sediment sample with thin, matlike layers of white crystals that released a volume of gas twenty times greater than its volume of pore fluid, (3) a molecular distribution of hydrocarbon gases that excluded hydrocarbons larger than isobutane, (4) results from pressure core barrel experiments, and (5) pore-fluid chemistry. The molecular composition of the hydrocarbons in these gas hydrates and the isotopic composition of the methane indicate that the gas is derived mainly from microbiological processes operating on the organic matter within the sediment. Although gas hydrates apparently are widespread on the Blake Outer Ridge, they probably are not of great economic significance as a potential, unconventional, energy resource or as an impermeable cap for trapping upwardly migrating gas at Site 533.

(Table 1) Mean grain sizes and standard deviations of gas hydrate samples

Methane hydrates are present in marine seep systems and occur within the gas hydrate stability zone. Very little is known about their crystallite sizes and size distributions because they are notoriously difficult to measure. Crystal size distributions are usually considered as one of the key petrophysical parameters because they influence mechanical properties and possible compositional changes, which may occur with changing environmental conditions. Variations in grain size are relevant for gas substitution in natural hydrates by replacing CH4 with CO2 for the purpose of carbon dioxide sequestration. Here we show that crystallite sizes of gas hydrates from some locations in the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Black Sea are in the range of 200-400 µm; larger values were obtained for deeper-buried samples from ODP Leg 204. The crystallite sizes show generally a log-normal distribution and appear to vary sometimes rapidly with location.

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National gas supply and demand, 1971-1990

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