Bifurcation of Pacific North Equatorial Current at the surface

The grid altimetry data between 1993 and 2006 near the Philippines were analyzed by the method of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to study the variation of bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current at the surface of the Pacific. The relatively short-term signals with periods of about 6 months, 4 months, 3 months and 2 months are found besides seasonal and interannual variations mentioned in previous studies. Local wind stress curl plays an important role in controlling variation of bifurcation latitude except in the interannual timescale. The bifurcation latitude is about 13.3A degrees N in annual mean state and it lies at the northernmost position (14.0A degrees N) in January, at the southernmost position (12.5A degrees N) in July. The amplitude of variation of bifurcation latitude in a year is 1.5A degrees, which can mainly be explained as the contributions of the signals with periods of about 1 year (1.2A degrees) and 0.5 year (0.3A degrees).

Additional pandaloid shrimps from the South China Sea (Crustacea : Decapoda : Caridea), with description of one new species

The present paper reports 22 pandaloid shrimp species from the South China Sea and its adjacent area, including two new records of the South China Sea, 14 new records of the Nanshan Islands, and one new speices. Heterocarpus chani, new species, type localities from the Philippines and Nansha Islands, is distinguished from its allied species, H. gibbosus Bate, 1888, H. tricarinatus Alcock & Anderson, 1894 and H. lepidus De Man, 1917, by the third maxilliped with a short rudimentary exopod.

Deep-sea pontoniines (Decapoda : Palaemonidae) from the philippine "PANGLAO 2005" expedition, with descriptions of four new species

Ten species belonging to three genera of the subfamily Pontoniinae were colleted by the deep-sea expedition "PANGLAO 2005" in the Philippines, including four new species of the genus Periclimenes, i.e., P. boucheti n. sp., P. leptunguis n. sp., P. ngi n. sp., and P. panglaonis sp. nov., and one newly recorded species from the Philippines, Periclimenes laccadivensis. They are reported with color photographs except one species, Plesiopontonia monodi. The possible synonymy of Periclimenes foresti and P. granuloides is discussed.

Short reflections on the history of African communication

This article aims to propose a chronological subdivision in the history of African communication. African communication today is one of the most important axes for implementing development strategies, sustaining education, health, and schooling programmes, and so on. However, many of these programmes fail due to a lack of or ineffective communication between international organisations, local elite and lay people. The reasons for this situation must be found in Africa’s history of communication, which has undergone radical transformations in its different phases. Using the functionalist analysis drawn up by Jakobson, this article proposes a new chronological subdivision of Africa’s history of communication, reflecting on the current contradictions in contemporary communication in Africa.

The deep-sea chiton Nierstraszella (Mollusca: Polyplacophora: Lepidopleurida) in the Indo-West Pacific: taxonomy, morphology and a bizarre ectosymbiont

This study investigated the taxonomy and distribution of the deep-sea polyplacophoran mollusc Nierstraszella Sirenko, 1992 in the Indo-West Pacific, based on a collection of 516 specimens collected in the Philippines and Solomon Islands. Although seven species names have historically been proposed in this group of chitons, all have been considered as synonyms of the monotypic N. lineata (Nierstrasz, 1905). Morphological examination of this new material reveals the presence of two species. N. lineata is distinct from N. andamanica (Smith, 1906), based on morphological characters given in the original species description and very distinctly different morphology of aesthete pores in the shell surface. Furthermore, populations of N. andamanica in the Philippines and Solomon Islands are locally colonized with the epibiotic (ectoparasitic) bryozoan Pseudobathyalozoon profundum d'Hondt, 2006. These bryozoans attach ventrally to the girdle of the host chiton and the erect zooids feed within the pallial cavity, among the chiton's gills.

Deep-sea chitons from sunken wood in the West Pacific (Mollusca: Polyplacophora: Lepidopleurida): taxonomy, distribution, and seven new species

Natural deposits of sunken wood provide an important habitat for deep-sea invertebrates. Deep-sea chitons in the primitive order Lepidopleurida are typically collected rarely and as single specimens. However, these animals have been recovered in large densities associated with sunken wood in the tropical West Pacific, in groups of up to 50 individuals. Four deep- sea expeditions in the West Pacific, to the Philippines, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu, recovered a large number of poly- placophorans. We have examined the morphology as well as the range and distribution of these species, based on the larg- est collection ever examined (more than 1300 individuals). These species show potentially adapted characters associated with exploitation of sunken wood as habitat, such as protruding caps on sensory shell pores (aesthetes) and large interseg- mental bristles with potential sensory function. In this study we investigated the twenty-two species recovered, including seven newly described here (Leptochiton consimilis n. sp., L. angustidens n. sp., L. dykei n. sp., L. samadiae n. sp., L. longisetosus n. sp., L. clarki n. sp., L. schwabei n. sp.), and provide the first identification key to the 34 lepidopleuran chitons known from sunken wood worldwide.

Piñatex, the design development of a new sustainable material

This is a research project by practice, which firstly develops a new material invention derived from natural fibres extracted from waste pineapple leaves; secondly it articulates the contemporary designer’s role in facilitating sustainable solutions through: Insights from my own material invention, PiñatexTM, which integrates the materiality of design with the immateriality of concepts and values Developing a visual model of mapping I began with these questions: ‘What are the challenges in seeking to make a new and sustainable material from the waste products of pineapple agriculture in the Philippines?’ and ‘How can a design practice link elements of materiality (artifacts) with immaterial elements (value systems) in order to improve sustainable social and economic development?’ Significant influences have been the work of Papanek1 (2003), Hawken2 (1999) and Abouleish3 (2008) and in particular the ethical business model initiated by McDonough and Braungart in Cradle to Cradle®4 (2002). My own research project is inspired by the Cradle to Cradle® model. It proposes the development of a new material, PiñatexTM which is derived from natural fibres extracted from waste pineapple leaves and could be used in a wide variety of products that are currently fabricated in leather or petroleum-based materials. The methods have comprised: Contextual reviews; case studies (SEKEM, Cradle to Cradle® and Gawad Kalinga); practical experiments in the field of natural fibres, chemistry, product development, manufacturing and prototyping, leading to an invention and a theoretical model of mapping. In addition, collaboration has taken place across scientific, technological, social, ecological, academic and business fields. The outcome is a new material based on the synchronicity between the pineapple fibres, polymers, resins and coatings specially formulated. The invention of the new material that I developed as a central part of this research by practice has a patent in the national phase (PCT/GB 2011/000802) and is in the first stages of manufacturing, commercial testing and further design input (Summer 2014). The contribution to knowledge is firstly the material, PiñatexTM, which exhibits certain key qualities, namely environmentally non-toxic, biodegradable, income-generating potential and marketability. This is alongside its intrinsic qualities as a textile product: aesthetic potential, durability and stability, which will make it suitable for the accessories, interiors and furnishing markets. The theoretical mapping system Upstream and Downstream forms a secondary contribution.

La Junte des Philippines de Goya (1815) : regard sur le pouvoir colonial espagnol et le capitalisme financier

Notre analyse de l’imposante toile de Francisco Goya L’Assemblée de la Compagnie Royale des Philippines dite La Junte des Philippines (1815) vise à sortir cette œuvre de l’isolement où les études antérieures l’ont en grande partie maintenue. Nous désirons réinsérer ce tableau au cœur des dynamiques artistiques et économiques mondiales à l’orée du XIXe siècle. Le regard lucide que nous portons sur le tableau de Goya s’appuie sur une approche historique issue de la pensée postcoloniale actuelle. Par un renversement de perspective depuis la salle de réunion vers l’empire espagnol, nous plaçons l’œuvre dans une trame de relations mondiales entre la métropole et ses colonies. La Junte des Philippines révèle alors un point de vue particulier sur l’impérialisme espagnol en déclin. Loin d’être close sur elle-même, l’œuvre articule une série de thématiques qui répondent aux exigences artistiques de l’époque, notamment de la bourgeoisie libérale. Le traitement qu’opère La Junte de la commémoration d’une rencontre d’actionnaires met au jour une conception visuelle du capitalisme mercantile et financier présent en Espagne et en Angleterre. L’intrigue artistique que déploie Goya possède une signification d’envergure historique qui contribue à la valeur d’actualité de La Junte des Philippines.

Accumulation et résistance aux Philippines : conflits fonciers dans les hautes-terres du Negros Oriental

La convergence des crises mondiales financière, énergétique et alimentaire des dernières années a contribué à une intensification du contrôle de la terre par des intervenants étatiques et non-étatiques. Des entreprises nationales et transnationales, aidées par les gouvernements locaux, s’empressent d’acquérir de grandes superficies agricoles dans le but défini de produire des cultures de rentes pour la production d'agrocarburants. Parfois désigné « acquisition foncière », « investissement étranger en agriculture » ou « accaparement de terres », ce phénomène semble décrire le futur des politiques agricoles de nombreux pays. Aux Philippines, plusieurs accords sont en vigueur pour le développement de la filière des agrocarburants. Selon le gouvernement du pays, ces ententes, en plus de dynamiser le secteur de l’agriculture, peuvent générer des effets positifs au sein des régions rurales en sécurisant une part des revenus des agriculteurs engagés dans ce type de production, tout en favorisant la pluriactivité dans ces mêmes régions. Cette recherche a été réalisée dans les hautes-terres du sud de la province de Negros Oriental, où 10 000 hectares de terres agricoles ont été concédés à une entreprise coréenne spécialisée dans la production d’éthanol. Cette acquisition a mené à un processus d’exclusion et de dépossession par les élites traditionnelles au détriment des populations jusqu’alors tournées vers les productions vivrières. Ces populations ont été expulsées de la terre et privées des ressources constituant l’essentiel de leurs revenus. Suite à l’opposition des paysans, plusieurs détachements militaires se sont installés dans la région, menant à une intensification des conflits. Plusieurs unités paramilitaires se partagent dorénavant l’espace occupé initialement par ces paysans qui ont dû quitter en raison de l’augmentation de l’intimidation et de la violence. Cette recherche a permis d’examiner les façons dont les accaparements des terres transforment le système foncier antérieur à l'entente et modifient les conditions socioéconomiques d’une région caractérisée par un système hybride de production.

La mobilisation sociopolitique paysanne et son impact sur le profil alimentaire : Chiapas, Mexique et Mindanao, Philippines comparés

Dans l’État mexicain du Chiapas et aux Philippines sur l’île de Mindanao, on retrouve des groupes paysans en révolte contre leurs gouvernements respectifs. À l’origine de ce conflit, on souligne une situation alimentaire difficile et des revendications concernant la terre, son partage et son usage. L’objectif de ce mémoire est de comparer les différents résultats que peuvent avoir des mobilisations sociopolitiques de type belliqueux et pacifique sur la situation alimentaire de populations paysannes. Pour y parvenir, le concept original de profil alimentaire est élaboré, se situant entre les notions de sécurité et de souveraineté alimentaire. Les hypothèses de recherche sont qu’une mobilisation sociopolitique belliqueuse entraîne une amélioration forte du profil alimentaire, qu’une mobilisation sociopolitique pacifique entraîne une amélioration notable du profil alimentaire et que l’absence de mobilisation laisse le profil alimentaire dans un état statique. Ce mémoire, utilisant l’anthropologie politique comme méthode de recherche et d’analyse, réussit à asseoir le concept de profil alimentaire qui permet de souligner l’évolution de la qualité d’alimentation et des pratiques agricoles.

Analyse du contrat amoureux au sein du mariage par correspondance : une étude de cas des unions entre Philippines et Canadiens

L’objectif de notre travail était de conduire une étude exploratoire sur la mise en place et le déroulement de la relation matrimoniale au sein de couples philippino-canadiens mariés par correspondance, afin de comprendre les mécanismes sociaux qui régissent l’expérience de vie de ces couples. Nous nous inspirons de Constable pour qui la relation au sein du mariage par correspondance peut être une relation amoureuse même si la logique de désir des deux partenaires est fortement imbriquée dans un contexte historique et culturel. Nous poursuivons la réflexion de Constable sur la relation amoureuse en nous appuyant sur l’analyse de Simmel sur le processus de socialisation entre les individus et le phénomène de l’individualisation au sein des sociétés capitalistes. Nous explorons également comment le couple marié par correspondance crée ce que Kaufmann appelle le contrat amoureux à travers sa correspondance, sa rencontre, son quotidien et son avenir, et comment ce contrat influence les interactions entre les deux membres du couple, ainsi que celles entre le couple et le reste de la société. Dans ce mémoire sur le mariage par correspondance, nous nous intéresserons au quotidien de quatre couples philippino-canadiens mariés par correspondance vivant à Montréal et dans la région, à travers une perspective inspirée du sociologue George Simmel. Nous avons effectué des entretiens, sous forme de récit de vie et utilisé la méthode de l’ethnosociologie pour analyser leur discours. Nos résultats démontrent que le contrat amoureux influence les couples mariés par correspondance au cours des phases successives de leur relation et de leur vie commune. La construction sociale de leur réalité de couple, bâtie sur les sentiments amoureux et le travail au quotidien pour assurer le fonctionnement et la stabilité du couple, permet de passer outre d’éventuelles raisons initiales pratiques pour se marier. Malgré des inégalités, comme la division sexuée du travail et des revenus, l’agentivité de l’épouse est à l’œuvre lors de la planification de la rencontre, la première rencontre physique, l’installation au Canada et l’établissement de la vie commune et le processus de planification du couple. Le contrat amoureux et la construction sociale du couple offrent à l’épouse la possibilité de réduire les inégalités et de gagner une indépendance personnelle. Le retour aux Philippines est important dans la conversation conjugale, notamment au niveau de la planification à long terme du couple.

The Corticiaceae (Basidiomycetes) in Taiwan

Geographically, Taiwan is an Island and situated in the northeast of Asia, on the western side of the Pacific Basin, at the southeast of main China, south of Japan, and north of the Philippines. The main topographic character is the longitudinally oriented mountainous area. More than 200 peaks rise above 3000 m. They departed Taiwan into two lowland areas, an eastern and western plain. Taiwan is departed into subtropical (north area) and tropical zone (south area), which have a warm and humid climate, due to the Tropic of Cancer passing through. The average annual temperature in the lowland amounts to 28°C (7~38°C). The temperate climate also presents in the mountainous areas. The tropical typhoons usually come in summer and bring heavy rain, while the monsoon seasons have an important effect on the regional rainfall distribution. The mean annual rainfall of Taiwan is about 2600 mm (1000~6700 mm); the mountainous areas receive more rain than the lowlands. In Taiwan, according to different temperature and vegetation, the ecological environments were given rise to vertical biotic zonations, and form five major types: highland snowfield, highland meadow, coniferous forest, deciduous forest, and tropical forest. Six National Parks in Taiwan are located in the mountainous areas, in the north, the south, and on Jinmen Island. The National Parks represent about 8.4% of the country area. In this study, the collection sites are situated in Yangmingshan, Shei-Pa, Yushan, and Kenting National Park. Due to the island isolation, the proportions of endemic species are great in Taiwan, which also presents a high biodiversity. There are 4255 species of vascular plants including 1133 endemic. 5936 species in 1276 genera of fungi are hitherto reported in Taiwan. Among them, 233 Corticiaceae species were recorded, over one third (79 species) of them are known only from Taiwan. The first fungal report in Taiwan is about Phytophthora cyperi, published by the Japanese researcher T. Kawakami in 1904. Therefore, the history of research about fungi in Taiwan is more than one hundred years old. An eminent Japanese mycologist K. Sawada made an intensive survey from 1919 to 1959, and reported 2464 fungi species in his eleven volumes of “Descriptive Catalogue of Formosan Fungi”. However, only a few species (21 species in 9 genera) of Corticiaceae were recorded. From 1973, Chen and Lin resumed the study on Corticiaceae, and also some other foreign mycologists contributed for this field after 1980. The German research group lead by Franz Oberwinkler from Tübingen University collected in Taiwan several times. They published a number of new species and new records. Since 1989, S. H. Wu, a Taiwanese mycologist, has published a great amount of reports on corticioid fungi from Taiwan. Corticioid fungi were made up by the large and heterogeneous unnatural family Corticiaceae and other resupinate fungi belonging to other natural families in the Agaricomycetes. Molecular studies have shown that corticioid genera are distributed across all major clades of Agaricomycetes indicating that the corticioid fungi represent a polyphyletic group. They have resupinate fruitbodies and similar habitats. Species are characterized by simple fruitbody, more or less effused, and present smooth, porioid, grandinioid to odontioid hymenial surface. The fruitbodies are differently colored and usually soft to tough. Most of the Corticiaceae species are wood-saprobic organisms and gain the energy from the decomposing of wood-substrate such as cellulose or lignin. Materials for this study were collected by the author and other mycologists in Taiwan during surveys in April and May 1996, and March 2007, using the spring season with its high humidity and warm climate which are optimal conditions for the development of fungi. For assembling, the convenience sampling method was used in this study. This approach was chosen because it enables to detect a high biodiversity in a short time, and also to find species with rare or patchy distribution. The collecting sites from the North to the South include four National Parks and some preserved forests. They cover many different habitats such as low lands and high mountains. Fresh specimens were dried and analysed with a light microscope. 265 specimens belonging to Corticiaceae were studied in this research. Among them, 50 species in 21 genera including 11 new records and 10 new species were described with text and drawing. Four new species are belonging to Hyphodontia (H. sp. nov. 1, H. sp. nov. 2, H. sp. nov. 3, and H. sp. nov. 4), four to Schizopora (Sch. sp. nov. 1, Sch. sp. nov. 2, Sch. sp. nov. 3, and Sch. sp. nov. 4), one in Trechispora (T. sp. nov. 1), and one in Tubulicrinis (T. sp. nov. 1). Species recorded as new are Aleurodiscus amorphus, Botryohypochnus isabellinus, Hyphodontia cineracea, Hyphodontia palmae, Hypochnicium vellereum, Merulius tremellosus, Metulodontia nivea, Paullicorticium ansatum, Phlebia radiata, Phlebiella ardosiaca, and Xylobolus frustulatus. Besides, Botryohypochnus, Merulius, Metulodontia, Paullicorticium, and Xylobolus are also newly recorded genera in Taiwan. The genus Hyphodontia presents the highest diversity with 20 out of 50 species recorded. The second important genus is Hyphoderma, however with only 5 species. This indicates that Hyphodontia and Hyphoderma have a higher ability to develop in variable environments and approximately shows the predominance of these two genera in Taiwanese Corticiaceae. There are 11 new records out of the 50 species recorded, representing 22%. Some species, e.g. Hypochnicium vellereum and Paullicorticium ansatum were in the past recorded only in Europe and North America with cold and temperate climate. The samples of them are for the first time found in the subtropical belt, and display some difference from those of temperate regions. These collections should be molecularly investigated to clarify if they represent the same species of temperate areas. Patchily distributed species, for example Phlebiella ardosiaca, previously known only in Europe, and Hyphodontia palmae collected only in Brazil, were first recorded in different continents. Two possibilities are indicated by these new records: they are worldwide species but very rare to be found, or the Taiwanese specimens are taxonomically different. More survey from other continents and molecular study for these collections should be done in the future to solve this question. The distribution of Corticiaceae in Taiwan presents the variations in the north, central, and south areas and shows the diversity in lowlands and high mountains. The results of this study provide the evidence that the temperate Corticiaceae species displays a wider distribution. Subtropical and tropical taxa probably have also high dispersal capacities, and could possibly be found in the future in neighboring areas such as China, Japan, Korea or South Asia, but this needs further researches. In the total of 50 species, 10 new taxa were described in this study, giving about 20%. Some new species (e.g. Hyphodontia sp. 1, Hyphodontia sp. 2, and Hyphodontia sp. 3) are very similar to known species (Hyphodontia sambuci and Hyphodontia formosana), and the distinctive characters of Schizopora sp. nov. 1 are intermediate between those of Schizopora paradoxa and Hyphodontia flavipora. Thus, these small differences between the new and known species, suggest that the speciation occurred when the fungi migrated into Taiwan, due to the high diversity of environment, and amounts of the endemic plants. Taiwan is an intermediate place for the south (tropical) fungal species to migrate and adapt to north (temperate) regions. The middle and high altitude environments in Taiwan offer good conditions for the fungal speciation and possibly the occurrence of physiological changes to adapt to the temperate climate. Thus Taiwan has an important position for the biogeography of Asia mycobiota. 5936 known species in Taiwan represent about only 20% of the estimated number (24000) of Taiwanese fungal taxa. In this study, the findings (22% new records and 20% new species) indicate that amounts of unknown fungi species are expected in Taiwan. The lack of knowledge indicates that many new species are awaiting description, and fungal survey in Taiwan remains in a Pioneer phase. The last three wide surveys of Corticiaceae researches took place 20 years before this study (Chen & Lin 1977, Lin & Chen 1989, Wu 1990). After previous important contributions, the present taxonomic study comprising 21 genera is the most extensive on Corticiaceae of Taiwan.

The Pursuit of Alternatives

Stories of peoples’ struggles across the globe are testaments to their determination to resist exploitation and injustice, and to imagine and construct their own narratives of economic and political difference. These stories of emancipatory moments demonstrate that something radically different in terms of dominant socio-economic relations and mental conceptions of the world may arise out of and beyond capitalism. The Pursuit of Alternatives: Stories of Peoples’ Economic and Political Struggles Around the World presents a fresh and new perspective on how the ‘process of becoming’ alternatives might take place based on peoples’ lived experiences. The chapters here, by labour activists and academics, explore how various forms of peoples’ economic and political initiatives and struggles in six countries – Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Nigeria, the Philippines, and South Korea – might become ‘actually existing’ spaces and moments for the development of critical consciousness and transformative capacities which are both central in challenging the dominant social, economic and political relations. The stories in this book bring to light today’s language of peoples’ struggles; what inspires people to create their own emancipatory moments and spaces for transformative self-change. While this book does not aim to propose an alternative to capitalism per se, it makes a stimulating contribution to the continuing debate on what alternatives to capitalist relations and arrangements might look like by grounding these alternatives in the everyday lives and struggles of workers, women, aboriginal peoples, the unemployed, and the poor.

Profitability and technical efficiency of aquaculture systems in Pampanga, Philippines

We evaluate the profitability and technical efficiency of aquaculture in the Philippines. Farm-level data are used to compare two production systems corresponding to the intensive monoculture of tilapia in freshwater ponds and the extensive polyculture of shrimps and fish in brackish water ponds. Both activities are very lucrative, with brackish water aquaculture achieving the higher level of profit per farm. Stochastic frontier production functions reveal that technical efficiency is low in brackish water aquaculture, with a mean of 53%, explained primarily by the operator's experience and by the frequency of his visits to the farm. In freshwater aquaculture, the farms achieve a mean efficiency level of 83%. The results suggest that the provision of extension services to brackish water fish farms might be a cost-effective way of increasing production and productivity in that sector. By contrast, technological change will have to be the driving force of future productivity growth in freshwater aquaculture.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.