Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

Macroevolutionary patterns in the diversification of parrots: effects of climate change, geological events and key innovations

Aim Parrots are thought to have originated on Gondwana during the Cretaceous. The initial split within crown group parrots separated the New Zealand taxa from the remaining extant species and was considered to coincide with the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana 82-85 Ma, assuming that the diversification of parrots was mainly shaped by vicariance. However, the distribution patterns of several extant parrot groups cannot be explained without invoking transoceanic dispersal, challenging this assumption. Here, we present a temporal and spatial framework for the diversification of parrots using external avian fossils as calibration points in order to evaluate the relative importance of the influences of past climate change, plate tectonics and ecological opportunity. Location Australasian, African, Indo-Malayan and Neotropical regions. Methods Phylogenetic relationships were investigated using partial sequences of the nuclear genes c-mos, RAG-1 and Zenk of 75 parrot and 21 other avian taxa. Divergence dates and confidence intervals were estimated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. Biogeographic patterns were evaluated taking temporal connectivity between areas into account. We tested whether diversification remained constant over time and if some parrot groups were more species-rich than expected given their age. Results Crown group diversification of parrots started only about 58 Ma, in the Palaeogene, significantly later than previously thought. The Australasian lories and possibly also the Neotropical Arini were found to be unexpectedly species-rich. Diversification rates probably increased around the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene, during two periods of major global climatic aberrations characterized by global cooling. Main conclusions The diversification of parrots was shaped by climatic and geological events as well as by key innovations. Initial vicariance events caused by continental break-up were followed by transoceanic dispersal and local radiations. Habitat shifts caused by climate change and mountain orogenesis may have acted as a catalyst to the diversification by providing new ecological opportunities and challenges as well as by causing isolation as a result of habitat fragmentation. The lories constitute the only highly nectarivorous parrot clade, and their diet shift, associated with morphological innovation, may have acted as an evolutionary key innovation, allowing them to explore underutilized niches and promoting their diversification.

Change mechanisms of schema-centered group psychotherapy with personality disorder patients

Background This study addressed the temporal properties of personality disorders and their treatment by schema-centered group psychotherapy. It investigated the change mechanisms of psychotherapy using a novel method by which psychotherapy can be modeled explicitly in the temporal domain. Methodology and Findings 69 patients were assigned to a specific schema-centered behavioral group psychotherapy, 26 to social skills training as a control condition. The largest diagnostic subgroups were narcissistic and borderline personality disorder. Both treatments offered 30 group sessions of 100 min duration each, at a frequency of two sessions per week. Therapy process was described by components resulting from principal component analysis of patients' session-reports that were obtained after each session. These patient-assessed components were Clarification, Bond, Rejection, and Emotional Activation. The statistical approach focused on time-lagged associations of components using time-series panel analysis. This method provided a detailed quantitative representation of therapy process. It was found that Clarification played a core role in schema-centered psychotherapy, reducing rejection and regulating the emotion of patients. This was also a change mechanism linked to therapy outcome. Conclusions/Significance The introduced process-oriented methodology allowed to highlight the mechanisms by which psychotherapeutic treatment became effective. Additionally, process models depicted the actual patterns that differentiated specific diagnostic subgroups. Time-series analysis explores Granger causality, a non-experimental approximation of causality based on temporal sequences. This methodology, resting upon naturalistic data, can explicate mechanisms of action in psychotherapy research and illustrate the temporal patterns underlying personality disorders.

Differences between RNA and DNA due to RNA editing in temporal lobe epilepsy

To investigate whether alterations in RNA editing (an enzymatic base-specific change to the RNA sequence during primary transcript formation from DNA) of neurotransmitter receptor genes and of transmembrane ion channel genes play a role in human temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), this exploratory study analyzed 14 known cerebral editing sites in RNA extracted from the brain tissue of 41 patients who underwent surgery for mesial TLE, 23 with hippocampal sclerosis (MTLE+HS). Because intraoperatively sampled RNA cannot be obtained from healthy controls and the best feasible control is identically sampled RNA from patients with a clinically shorter history of epilepsy, the primary aim of the study was to assess the correlation between epilepsy duration and RNA editing in the homogenous group of MTLE+HS. At the functionally relevant I/V site of the voltage-gated potassium channel Kv1.1, an inverse correlation of RNA editing was found with epilepsy duration (r=-0.52, p=0.01) but not with patient age at surgery, suggesting a specific association with either the epileptic process itself or its antiepileptic medication history. No significant correlations were found between RNA editing and clinical parameters at other sites within glutamate receptor or serotonin 2C receptor gene transcripts. An "all-or-none" (≥95% or ≤5%) editing pattern at most or all sites was discovered in 2 patients. As a secondary part of the study, RNA editing was also analyzed as in the previous literature where up to now, few single editing sites were compared with differently obtained RNA from inhomogenous patient groups and autopsies, and by measuring editing changes in our mouse model. The present screening study is first to identify an editing site correlating with a clinical parameter, and to also provide an estimate of the possible effect size at other sites, which is a prerequisite for power analysis needed in planning future studies.

Spatial and temporal patterns in ungulate-ecosystem interactions

Ungulates are important components of a variety of ecosystems worldwide. This dissertation integrates aspects of ungulate and forest ecology to increase our understanding of how they work together in ways that are of interest to natural resource managers, educators, and those who are simply curious about nature. Although animal ecology and ecosystem ecology are often studied separately, one of the general goals of this dissertation is to examine how they interact across spatial and temporal scales. Forest ecosystems are heterogeneous across a range of scales. Spatial and temporal habitat use patterns of forest ungulates tend to be congregated in patches where food and/or cover are readily available. Ungulates interact with ecosystem processes by selectively foraging on plants and excreting waste products in concentrated patches. Positive feedbacks may develop where these activities increase the value of habitat through soil fertilization or the alteration of plant chemistry and architecture. Heterogeneity in ecosystem processes and plant community structure, observed at both stand and local scales, may be the integrated outcome of feedbacks between ungulate behavior and abiotic resource gradients. The first chapter of this dissertation briefly discusses pertinent background information on ungulate ecology, with a focus on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Upper Great Lakes region and moose (Alces acles) in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA. The second chapter demonstrates why ecological context is important for studying ungulate ecology in forest ecosystems. Excluding deer from eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) stands, which deer use primarily as winter cover, resulted in less spatial complexity in soil reactive nitrogen and greater complexity in diffuse light compared to unfenced stands. The spatial patterning of herbaceous-layer cover was more similar to nitrogen where deer were present, and was a combination of nitrogen and light within deer exclosures. This relationship depends on the seasonal timing of deer habitat use because deer fertilize the soil during winter, but leave during the growing season. The third chapter draws upon an eight-year, 39-stand data set of deer fecal pellet counts in hemlock stands to estimate the amount of nitrogen that deer are depositing in hemlock stands each winter. In stands of high winter deer use, deer-excreted nitrogen inputs consistently exceeded those of atmospheric deposition at the stand scale. At the neighborhood scale, deer-excreted nitrogen was often in excess of atmospheric deposition due to the patchy distribution of deer habitat use. Spatial patterns in habitat use were consistent over the eight-year study at both stand and neighborhood scales. The fourth chapter explores how foraging selectivity by moose interacts with an abiotic resource gradient to influence forest structure and composition. Soil depth on Isle Royale varies from east to west according to glacial history. Fir saplings growing in deeper soils on the west side are generally more palatable forage for moose (lower foliar C:N) than those growing in shallower soils on the east side. Therefore, saplings growing in better conditions are less likely to reach the canopy due to moose browsing, and fir is a smaller overstory component on the west side. Lastly, chapter five focuses on issues surrounding eastern hemlock regeneration failure, which is a habitat type that is important to many wildlife species. Increasing hemlock on the landscape is complicated by several factors including disturbance regime and climate change, in addition to the influence of deer.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOIL MICROORGANISMS IN NORTHERN HARDWOOD FORESTS

As global climate continues to change, it becomes more important to understand possible feedbacks from soils to the climate system. This dissertation focuses on soil microbial community responses to climate change factors in northern hardwood forests. Two soil warming experiments at Harvard Forest in Massachusetts, and a climate change manipulation experiment with both elevated temperature and increased moisture inputs in Michigan were sampled. The hyphal in-growth bag method was to understand how soil fungal biomass and respiration respond to climate change factors. Our results from phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analyses suggest that the hyphal in-growth bag method allows relatively pure samples of fungal hyphae to be partitioned from bacteria in the soil. The contribution of fungal hyphal respiration to soil respiration was examined in climate change manipulation experiments in Massachusetts and Michigan. The Harvard Forest soil warming experiments in Massachusetts are long-term studies with 8 and 18 years of +5 °C warming treatment. Hyphal respiration and biomass production tended to decrease with soil warming at Harvard Forest. This suggests that fungal hyphae adjust to higher temperatures by decreasing the amount of carbon respired and the amount of carbon stored in biomass. The Ford Forestry Center experiment in Michigan has a 2 x 2 fully factorial design with warming (+4-5 °C) and moisture addition (+30% average ambient growing season precipitation). This experiment was used to examine hyphal growth and respiration of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), soil enzymatic capacity, microbial biomass and microbial community structure in the soil over two years of experimental treatment. Results from the hyphal in-growth bag study indicate that AMF hyphal growth and respiration respond negatively to drought. Soil enzyme activities tend to be higher in heated versus unheated soils. There were significant temporal variations in enzyme activity and microbial biomass estimates. When microbial biomass was estimated using chloroform fumigation extractions there were no differences between experimental treatments and the control. When PLFA analyses were used to estimate microbial biomass we found that biomass responds negatively to higher temperatures and positively to moisture addition. This pattern was present for both bacteria and fungi. More information on the quality and composition of the organic matter and nutrients in soils from climate change manipulation experiments will allow us to gain a more thorough understanding of the mechanisms driving the patterns reported here. The information presented here will improve current soil carbon and nitrogen cycling models.

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Temporal and Spatial Coexistence of Archaeal and Bacterial amoA Genes and Gene Transcripts in Lake Lucerne

Despite their crucial role in the nitrogen cycle, freshwater ecosystems are relatively rarely studied for active ammonia oxidizers (AO). This study of Lake Lucerne determined the abundance of both amoA genes and gene transcripts of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) over a period of 16 months, shedding more light on the role of both AO in a deep, alpine lake environment. At the surface, at 42 m water depth, and in the water layer immediately above the sediment, AOA generally outnumbered AOB. However, in the surface water during summer stratification, when both AO were low in abundance, AOB were more numerous than AOA. Temporal distribution patterns of AOA and AOB were comparable. Higher abundances of amoA gene transcripts were observed at the onset and end of summer stratification. In summer, archaeal amoA genes and transcripts correlated negatively with temperature and conductivity. Concentrations of ammonium and oxygen did not vary enough to explain the amoA gene and transcript dynamics. The observed herbivorous zooplankton may have caused a hidden flux of mineralized ammonium and a change in abundance of genes and transcripts. At the surface, AO might have been repressed during summer stratification due to nutrient limitation caused by active phytoplankton.

Change in suicide rates in Switzerland before and after firearm restriction resulting from the 2003 “Army XXI” reform

Objective: Firearms are the most common method of suicide among young men in Switzerland. From March 2003 through February 2004, the number of Swiss soldiers was halved as a result of an army reform (Army XXI), leading to a decrease in the availability of guns nationwide. The authors investigated the patterns of the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate before and after the reform. Method: Using a naturalistic study design, the authors compared suicide rates before (1995–2003) and after the intervention (2004–2008) in the affected population (men ages 18–43) and in two comparison groups (women ages 18–44 and men ages 44–53). Data were received from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Interrupted time series analysis was used to control for preexisting temporal trends. Alternative methods (Poisson regression, autocorrelation analysis, and surrogate data tests) were used to check validity. Results: The authors found a reduction in both the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate after the Army XXI reform. No significant increases were found for other suicide methods overall. An increase in railway suicides was observed. It was estimated that 22% of the reduction in firearm suicides was substituted by other suicide methods. The attenuation of the suicide rate was not compensated for during the follow-up years. Neither of the comparison groups showed statistically significant changes in firearm suicide rate and overall suicide rate. Conclusions: The restriction of firearm availability in Switzerland resulting from the Army XXI reform was followed by an enduring decrease in the general suicide rate.

Spatial and Temporal Melt Variability at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, and Its Effect on Ice Dynamics

Understanding the behavior of large outlet glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet is critical for assessing the impact of climate change on sea level rise. The flow of marine-terminating outlet glaciers is partly governed by calving-related processes taking place at the terminus but is also influenced by the drainage of surface runoff to the bed through moulins, cracks, and other pathways. To investigate the extent of the latter effect, we develop a distributed surface-energy-balance model for Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, to calculate surface melt and thereby estimate runoff. The model is driven by data from an automatic weather station operated on the glacier during the summers of 2007 and 2008, and calibrated with independent measurements of ablation. Modeled melt varies over the deployment period by as much as 68% relative to the mean, with melt rates approximately 77% higher on the lower reaches of the glacier trunk than on the upper glacier. We compare melt variations during the summer season to estimates of surface velocity derived from global positioning system surveys. Near the front of the glacier, there is a significant correlation (on >95% levels) between variations in runoff (estimated from surface melt) and variations in velocity, with a 1 day delay in velocity relative to melt. Although the velocity changes are small compared to accelerations previously observed following some calving events, our findings suggest that the flow speed of Helheim Glacier is sensitive to changes in runoff. The response is most significant in the heavily crevassed, fast-moving region near the calving front. The delay in the peak of the cross-correlation function implies a transit time of 12-36 h for surface runoff to reach the bed.

Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index

The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

DYPTOP: a cost-efficient TOPMODEL implementation to simulate sub-grid spatio-temporal dynamics of global wetlands and peatlands

Simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of inundation is key to understanding the role of wetlands under past and future climate change. Earlier modelling studies have mostly relied on fixed prescribed peatland maps and inundation time series of limited temporal coverage. Here, we describe and assess the the Dynamical Peatland Model Based on TOPMODEL (DYPTOP), which predicts the extent of inundation based on a computationally efficient TOPMODEL implementation. This approach rests on an empirical, grid-cell-specific relationship between the mean soil water balance and the flooded area. DYPTOP combines the simulated inundation extent and its temporal persistency with criteria for the ecosystem water balance and the modelled peatland-specific soil carbon balance to predict the global distribution of peatlands. We apply DYPTOP in combination with the LPX-Bern DGVM and benchmark the global-scale distribution, extent, and seasonality of inundation against satellite data. DYPTOP successfully predicts the spatial distribution and extent of wetlands and major boreal and tropical peatland complexes and reveals the governing limitations to peatland occurrence across the globe. Peatlands covering large boreal lowlands are reproduced only when accounting for a positive feedback induced by the enhanced mean soil water holding capacity in peatland-dominated regions. DYPTOP is designed to minimize input data requirements, optimizes computational efficiency and allows for a modular adoption in Earth system models.