995 resultados para task uncertainty
Resumo:
"The functional organization of auditory cortex (AC) is still poorly understood. Previous studies suggest segregation of auditory processing streams for spatial and nonspatial information located in the posterior and anterior AC, respectively (Rauschecker and Tian, 2000; Arnott et al., 2004; Lomber and Malhotra, 2008). Furthermore, previous studies have shown that active listening tasks strongly modulate AC activations (Petkov et al., 2004; Fritz et al., 2005; Polley et al., 2006). However, the task dependence of AC activations has not been systematically investigated. In the present study, we applied high-resolution functional magnetic resonance imaging of the AC and adjacent areas to compare activations during pitch discrimination and n-back pitch memory tasks that were varied parametrically in difficulty. We found that anterior AC activations were increased during discrimination but not during memory tasks, while activations in the inferior parietal lobule posterior to the AC were enhanced during memory tasks but not during discrimination. We also found that wide areas of the anterior AC and anterior insula were strongly deactivated during the pitch memory tasks. While these results are consistent with the proposition that the anterior and posterior AC belong to functionally separate auditory processing streams, our results show that this division is present also between tasks using spatially invariant sounds. Together, our results indicate that activations of human AC are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the behavioral task."
Resumo:
A laminated composite plate model based on first order shear deformation theory is implemented using the finite element method.Matrix cracks are introduced into the finite element model by considering changes in the A, B and D matrices of composites. The effects of different boundary conditions, laminate types and ply angles on the behavior of composite plates with matrix cracks are studied.Finally, the effect of material property uncertainty, which is important for composite material on the composite plate, is investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. Probabilistic estimates of damage detection reliability in composite plates are made for static and dynamic measurements. It is found that the effect of uncertainty must be considered for accurate damage detection in composite structures. The estimates of variance obtained for observable system properties due to uncertainty can be used for developing more robust damage detection algorithms. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper examines the relationships between uncertainty and the perceived usefulness of traditional annual budgets versus flexible budgets in 95 Swedish companies. We form hypotheses that the perceived usefulness of the annual budgets as well as the attitudes to more flexible budget alternatives are influenced by the uncertainty that the companies face. Our study distinguishes between two separate kinds of uncertainty: exogenous stochastic uncertainty (deriving from the firm’s environment) and endogenous deterministic uncertainty (caused by the strategic choices made by the firm itself). Based on a structural equations modelling analysis of data from a mail survey we found that the more accentuated exogenous uncertainty a company faces, the more accentuated is the expected trend towards flexibility in the budget system, and vice versa; the more endogenous uncertainty they face, the more negative are their attitudes towards budget flexibility. We also found that these relationships were not present with regard to the attitudes towards the usefulness of the annual budget. Noteworthy is, however, that there was a significant negative relationship between the perceived usefulness of the annual budget and budget flexibility. Thus, our results seem to indicate that the degree of flexibility in the budget system is influenced by both general attitudes towards the usefulness of traditional budgets and by the actual degree of exogenous uncertainty a company faces and by the strategy that it executes.
Resumo:
The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.
Resumo:
We study the problem of guessing the realization of a finite alphabet source, when some side information is provided, in a setting where the only knowledge the guesser has about the source and the correlated side information is that the joint source is one among a family. We define a notion of redundancy, identify a quantity that measures this redundancy, and study its properties. We then identify good guessing strategies that minimize the supremum redundancy (over the family). The minimum value measures the richness of the uncertainty class.
Resumo:
One of the key problems in the design of any incompletely connected multiprocessor system is to appropriately assign the set of tasks in a program to the Processing Elements (PEs) in the system. The task assignment problem has proven difficult both in theory and in practice. This paper presents a simple and efficient heuristic algorithm for assigning program tasks with precedence and communication constraints to the PEs in a Message-based Multiple-bus Multiprocessor System, M3, so that the total execution time for the program is minimized. The algorithm uses a cost function: “Minimum Distance and Parallel Transfer” to minimize the completion time. The effectiveness of the algorithm has been demonstrated by comparing the results with (i) the lower bound on the execution time of a program (task) graph and (ii) a random assignment.
Resumo:
Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.
Resumo:
This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on investment and labor demand for Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing a stock return based measure of uncertainty decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, the results reveal that idiosyncratic uncertainty significantly reduces both investment and labor demand. Idiosyncratic uncertainty seems to influence investment in the current period, whereas the depressing effect on labor demand appears with a one-year lag. The results provide support that the depressing effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty on investment is stronger for small firms in comparison to large firms. Some evidence is reported regarding differential effects of uncertainty on labor demand conditional on firm characteristics. Most importantly, the depressing effect of lagged idiosyncratic uncertainty on labor demand tends to be stronger for diversified firms compared with focused firms.
Resumo:
This dissertation develops a strategic management accounting perspective of inventory routing. The thesis studies the drivers of cost efficiency gains by identifying the role of the underlying cost structure, demand, information sharing, forecasting accuracy, service levels, vehicle fleet, planning horizon and other strategic factors as well as the interaction effects among these factors with respect to performance outcomes. The task is to enhance the knowledge of the strategic situations that favor the implementation of inventory routing systems, understanding cause-and-effect relationships, linkages and gaining a holistic view of the value proposition of inventory routing. The thesis applies an exploratory case study design, which is based on normative quantitative empirical research using optimization, simulation and factor analysis. Data and results are drawn from a real world application to cash supply chains. The first research paper shows that performance gains require a common cost component and cannot be explained by simple linear or affine cost structures. Inventory management and distribution decisions become separable in the absence of a set-dependent cost structure, and neither economies of scope nor coordination problems are present in this case. The second research paper analyzes whether information sharing improves the overall forecasting accuracy. Analysis suggests that the potential for information sharing is limited to coordination of replenishments and that central information do not yield more accurate forecasts based on joint forecasting. The third research paper develops a novel formulation of the stochastic inventory routing model that accounts for minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy. The developed model allows studying the interaction of minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy with the underlying cost structure in inventory routing. Interestingly, results show that the factors minimal service level and forecasting accuracy are not statistically significant, and subsequently not relevant for the strategic decision problem to introduce inventory routing, or in other words, to effectively internalize inventory management and distribution decisions at the supplier. Consequently the main contribution of this thesis is the result that cost benefits of inventory routing are derived from the joint decision model that accounts for the underlying set-dependent cost structure rather than the level of information sharing. This result suggests that the value of information sharing of demand and inventory data is likely to be overstated in prior literature. In other words, cost benefits of inventory routing are primarily determined by the cost structure (i.e. level of fixed costs and transportation costs) rather than the level of information sharing, joint forecasting, forecasting accuracy or service levels.
Resumo:
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]
Resumo:
Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
Research on reading has been successful in revealing how attention guides eye movements when people read single sentences or text paragraphs in simplified and strictly controlled experimental conditions. However, less is known about reading processes in more naturalistic and applied settings, such as reading Web pages. This thesis investigates online reading processes by recording participants eye movements. The thesis consists of four experimental studies that examine how location of stimuli presented outside the currently fixated region (Study I and III), text format (Study II), animation and abrupt onset of online advertisements (Study III), and phase of an online information search task (Study IV) affect written language processing. Furthermore, the studies investigate how the goal of the reading task affects attention allocation during reading by comparing reading for comprehension with free browsing, and by varying the difficulty of an information search task. The results show that text format affects the reading process, that is, vertical text (word/line) is read at a slower rate than a standard horizontal text, and the mean fixation durations are longer for vertical text than for horizontal text. Furthermore, animated online ads and abrupt ad onsets capture online readers attention and direct their gaze toward the ads, and distract the reading process. Compared to a reading-for-comprehension task, online ads are attended to more in a free browsing task. Moreover, in both tasks abrupt ad onsets result in rather immediate fixations toward the ads. This effect is enhanced when the ad is presented in the proximity of the text being read. In addition, the reading processes vary when Web users proceed in online information search tasks, for example when they are searching for a specific keyword, looking for an answer to a question, or trying to find a subjectively most interesting topic. A scanning type of behavior is typical at the beginning of the tasks, after which participants tend to switch to a more careful reading state before finishing the tasks in the states referred to as decision states. Furthermore, the results also provided evidence that left-to-right readers extract more parafoveal information to the right of the fixated word than to the left, suggesting that learning biases attentional orienting towards the reading direction.
Resumo:
This paper addresses some of the basic issues involved in the determination of rational strategies for players in two-target games. We show that unlike single-target games where the task of role assignment and selection of strategies is conceptually straightforward, in two-target games, many factors like the preference ordering of outcomes by players, the relative configuration of the target sets and secured outcome regions, the uncertainty about the parameters of the game, etc., also influence the rational selection of strategies by players. The importance of these issues is illustrated through appropriate examples.
Resumo:
Fallibility is inherent in human cognition and so a system that will monitor performance is indispensable. While behavioral evidence for such a system derives from the finding that subjects slow down after trials that are likely to produce errors, the neural and behavioral characterization that enables such control is incomplete. Here, we report a specific role for dopamine/basal ganglia in response conflict by accessing deficits in performance monitoring in patients with Parkinson's disease. To characterize such a deficit, we used a modification of the oculomotor countermanding task to show that slowing down of responses that generate robust response conflict, and not post-error per se, is deficient in Parkinson's disease patients. Poor performance adjustment could be either due to impaired ability to slow RT subsequent to conflicts or due to impaired response conflict recognition. If the latter hypothesis was true, then PD subjects should show evidence of impaired error detection/correction, which was found to be the case. These results make a strong case for impaired performance monitoring in Parkinson's patients.