Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Education, earnings, and rates of return: The case of Taiwan

Educational planners and economists have long recognized the importance of education as a form of productive investment in both advanced countries and developing countries. In the case of Taiwan, along with impressive economic growth, there was an even faster rate of growth of the government's investment in education. This leads some to question whether education has any role in economic development. ^ The purpose of this study is to provide a broad overview of the role of education, in terms of private rates of return to education, in Taiwan. In the process, a variety of hypotheses about human capital theory are examined and an empirical study of Taiwan's earnings functions are tested to show that education can be an important instrument to increase private rate of return, even under conditions of scarcity of natural and physical resources. Data was collected using the Manpower Survey and Manpower Utilization Survey, conducted by the government. Research questions were analyzed using descriptive statistics, frequencies, and regression analysis. ^ Results indicated that the Manpower Development Plans have been the decisive influence in allowing Taiwan to develop its human resources and achieve success in meeting the needs of Taiwan's economy. The structure of age-earnings profiles showed a strong relationship between earnings and education, and the profiles that successively shift upward are associated with higher levels of education. In the cross-sectional results of the rate of return in 1997, each additional year of schooling leads to a 6.2% increase in income. As to the private rates of return to different levels of education, the results found that the private rates of return are 2.88%, 4.85% and 10.05% for primary, secondary and higher education respectively. In an intertemporal comparison for 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1997, the results showed no significant trend except the private rates of return for primary education have been falling from 3.9% to 2.88%. ^ On the basis of this study, for individual student or family in Taiwan, there is likely to be a strong demand for education, particularly at the higher level. Therefore, a well-developed higher educational level becomes essential and the content of curriculum in higher education becomes another crucial question facing planners in Taiwan if they are going to use education as a means to foster economic development. ^

The effect of an enriched learning community on success and retention in chemistry courses

Since the mid-1990s, the United States has experienced a shortage of scientists and engineers, declining numbers of students choosing these fields as majors, and low student success and retention rates in these disciplines. Learning theorists, educational researchers, and practitioners believe that learning environments can be created so that an improvement in the numbers of students who complete courses successfully could be attained (Astin, 1993; Magolda & Terenzini, n.d.; O'Banion, 1997). Learning communities do this by providing high expectations, academic and social support, feedback during the entire educational process, and involvement with faculty, other students, and the institution (Ketcheson & Levine, 1999). ^ A program evaluation of an existing learning community of science, mathematics, and engineering majors was conducted to determine the extent to which the program met its goals and was effective from faculty and student perspectives. The program provided laptop computers, peer tutors, supplemental instruction with and without computer software, small class size, opportunities for contact with specialists in selected career fields, a resource library, and Peer-Led Team Learning. During the two years the project has existed, success, retention, and next-course continuation rates were higher than in traditional courses. Faculty and student interviews indicated there were many affective accomplishments as well. ^ Success and retention rates for one learning community class ( n = 27) and one traditional class (n = 61) in chemistry were collected and compared using Pearson chi square procedures ( p = .05). No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups. Data from an open-ended student survey about how specific elements of their course experiences contributed to success and persistence were analyzed by coding the responses and comparing the learning community and traditional classes. Substantial differences were found in their perceptions about the lecture, the lab, other supports used for the course, contact with other students, helping them reach their potential, and their recommendation about the course to others. Because of the limitation of small sample size, these differences are reported in descriptive terms. ^

The theory of margin as a predictor of success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses

The National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN) is the examination that all graduates of nursing education programs must pass to attain the title of registered nurse. Currently the NCLEX-RN passing rate is at an all-time low (81%) for first-time test takers (NCSBN, 2004); amidst a nationwide shortage of registered nurses (Glabman, 2001). Because of the critical need to supply greater numbers of professional nurses, and the potential accreditation ramifications that low NCLEX-RN passing rates can have on schools of nursing and graduates, this research study tests the effectiveness of a predictor model. This model is based upon the theoretical framework of McClusky's (1959) theory of margin (ToM), with the hope that students found to be at-risk for NCLEX-RN failure can be identified and remediated prior to taking the actual licensure examination. To date no theory based predictor model has been identified that predicts success on the NCLEX-RN. ^ The model was tested using prerequisite course grades, nursing course grades and scores on standardized examinations for the 2003 associate degree nursing graduates at a urban community college (N = 235). Success was determined through the reporting of pass on the NCLEX-RN examination by the Florida Board of Nursing. Point biserial correlations tested model assumptions regarding variable relationships, while logistic regression was used to test the model's predictive power. ^ Correlations among variables were significant and the model accounted for 66% of variance in graduates' success on the NCLEX-RN with 98% prediction accuracy. Although certain prerequisite course grades and nursing course grades were found to be significant to NCLEX-RN success, the overall model was found to be most predictive at the conclusion of the academic program of study. The inclusion of the RN Assessment Examination, taken during the final semester of course work, was the most significant predictor of NCLEX-RN success. Success on the NCLEX-RN allows graduates to work as registered nurses, reflects positively on a school's academic performance record, and supports the appropriateness of the educational program's goals and objectives. The study's findings support potential other uses of McClusky's theory of margin as a predictor of program outcome in other venues of adult education. ^

Development and validation of an instrument to predict online student success using faculty perceptions

Distance learning is growing and transforming educational institutions. The increasing use of distance learning by higher education institutions and particularly community colleges coupled with the higher level of student attrition in online courses than in traditional classrooms suggests that increased attention should be paid to factors that affect online student course completion. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate an instrument to predict community college online student course completion based on faculty perceptions, yielding a prediction model of online course completion rates. Social Presence and Media Richness theories were used to develop a theoretically-driven measure of online course completion. This research study involved surveying 311 community college faculty who taught at least one online course in the past 2 years. Email addresses of participating faculty were provided by two south Florida community colleges. Each participant was contacted through email, and a link to an Internet survey was given. The survey response rate was 63% (192 out of 303 available questionnaires). Data were analyzed through factor analysis, alpha reliability, and multiple regression. The exploratory factor analysis using principal component analysis with varimax rotation yielded a four-factor solution that accounted for 48.8% of the variance. Consistent with Social Presence theory, the factors with their percent of variance in parentheses were: immediacy (21.2%), technological immediacy (11.0%), online communication and interactivity (10.3%), and intimacy (6.3%). Internal consistency of the four factors was calculated using Cronbach's alpha (1951) with reliability coefficients ranging between .680 and .828. Multiple regression analysis yielded a model that significantly predicted 11% of the variance of the dependent variable, the percentage of student who completed the online course. As indicated in the literature (Johnson & Keil, 2002; Newberry, 2002), Media Richness theory appears to be closely related to Social Presence theory. However, elements from this theory did not emerge in the factor analysis.

Secondary school inclusion rates: The relationship between the training and beliefs of school site principals and the implementation of inclusion

Programs require strong support and guidance from those in leadership positions to ensure proper implementation (Fullen, 2001). Consequently, school site principals must rely on the training they have received to support them in making appropriate decisions. It is the school site principal’s leadership that is pivotal in the success of students with disabilities (DiPaola & Walther-Thomas, 2003; Monteith, 2000). In fact, the principal has a moral obligation to provide an environment that supports social justice in schools (Grogan & Andrews, 2002). The inclusion of students with disabilities does just that—it ensures that these students are not segregated to a “separate but equal” education. This study utilized a participant survey to collect data on principals’ beliefs and training in special education. This information was compared to the percentage of time students with disabilities spent with their non-disabled peers in the principals’ respective schools. An analysis was conducted to identify if a linear relationship exists between the selected variables and the inclusion percentages. Open-ended questions were included in the original survey which allowed for a thematic analysis of the responses. These responses were utilized to allow participants to further express their thoughts on the identified variables. Results indicated that there were no statistically significant relationships identified between the beliefs and training of secondary school site principals and the percentage of time that their students in special education spend with their non-disabled peers. Although the original research questions were not supported, further post hoc analysis indicated that the results obtained did support that the principals believed inclusion had a social benefit to students. Additional investigation into the academic benefits of inclusion is still needed. In addition, principals who indicated that they had some type of training in special education indicated a higher percentage that the individual student should be the focal point when making placement decisions. These results support the need for further research in the area of principal preparation programs and their relationships to the daily practice of school site principals.

GRE as a predictor of graduate student success at a Hispanic serving institution of higher education

Accurately predicting the success of graduate students is an important aspect of determining which students should be admitted into graduate programs. The GRE is a pivotal factor to examine since it is one of the most widely used criteria for graduate school admission. Even though the GRE is advertised as an accurate tool for predicting first year graduate GPA, there is a lack of research on long term success factors such as time to degree and graduate rate (Luthy, 1996; Powers, 2004). Furthermore, since most studies have low minority sample sizes, the validity of the GRE may not be the same across all groups (ETS, 2008b; Kuncel, Hezlett, & Ones, 2001). Another gap in GRE studies is that few researchers analyze student characteristics, which may alter or moderate the prediction validity of the GRE. Thus, student characteristics such as degree of academic involvement, mentorship interactions, and other academic and social experiences have not been widely examined in this context. These gaps in the analysis of GRE validity are especially relevant given the high attrition rates within of some graduate programs (e.g., an estimated 68% of doctoral student never complete their programs in urban universities; Lovitts, 2001). A sequential mixed methods design was used to answer the research questions in two phases. The quantitative phase used student data files to analyze the relationship of two success variables (graduation rate and graduate GPA) to the GRE scores as well as other academic and demographic graduate student characteristics. The qualitative phase served to complement the first phase by describing a wider range of characteristics from the 11 graduate students who were interviewed. Both proximal and distal moderators influence student behaviors and success in graduate school. In the first phase of the study, the GRE was the distal facilitator under analysis. Findings suggested that both the GRE Quantitative and the GRE Verbal were predictors of success for master’s students, but the GRE Quantitative was not predictive of success for doctoral students. Other student characteristics such as demographic variables and disciplinary area were also predictors of success for the population of students studied. In the second phase of the study, it was inconclusive whether the GRE was predictive of graduate student success; though it did influence access to graduate programs. Furthermore, proximal moderators such as student involvement, faculty/peer interactions, motivational factors, and program structure were perceived to be facilitators and/or detractors for success.

The relationship between the secondary mathematics curriculum, college persistence, and success at an urban community college

According to Venezia, Kirst, and Antonio (2003) and Barth’s 2002 Thinking K16 Ticket to Nowhere report, the disconnect between K-12 and postsecondary education was a contributing factor to high attrition rates. Since mathematics emerged as a primary concern for college readiness, Barth (2002) called for improving student transitions from K-12 to postsecondary institutions through the use of state or local data. The purpose of the present study was to analyze mathematics course-taking patterns of secondary students in a local context and to evaluate high school characteristics in order to explore their relationships with Associate degree attainment or continuous enrollment at an urban community college. Also, this study extended a national study conducted by Clifford Adelman (The Toolbox Revisited, 2006) as it specifically focused on community college students that were not included his study. Furthermore, this study used the theoretical framework that human capital, social capital, and cultural capital influence habitus—an individual’s or a group’s learned inclination to behave within the parameters of the imposed prevailing culture and norms. Specifically, the school embedded culture as it relates to tracking worked as a reproduction tool of ultimate benefit for the privileged group (Oakes, 1994). ^ Using multilevel analysis, this ex post facto study examined non-causal relationships between math course-taking patterns and college persistence of public high school graduates who enrolled at the local community college for up to 6 years. One school-level variable (percent of racial/ethnic minorities) and 7 student-level variables (community college math proportion, remedial math attempts, race, gender, first-year credits earned, socioeconomic status, and summer credits earned) emerged as predictors for college persistence. Study results indicated that students who enter higher education at the community college may have had lower opportunities to learn and therefore needed higher levels of remediation, which was shown to detract students from degree completion. Community college leaders are called to partner with local high schools with high percentages of racial/ethnic minorities to design academic programs aimed at improving the academic preparation of high school students in mathematics and promote student engagement during the first year and summers of college. ^

Seawater carbonate chemistry and hatch rates of Antarctic krill

Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource. There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators-whales, seals and penguins. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700-1,000 m, where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO2, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected pCO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO2 emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.

Utilizing Traditional Cognitive Measures of Academic Preparation to Predict First-Year Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Majors' Success in Math and Science Courses

For the past several years, U.S. colleges and universities have faced increased pressure to improve retention and graduation rates. At the same time, educational institutions have placed a greater emphasis on the importance of enrolling more students in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) programs and producing more STEM graduates. The resulting problem faced by educators involves finding new ways to support the success of STEM majors, regardless of their pre-college academic preparation. The purpose of my research study involved utilizing first-year STEM majors’ math SAT scores, unweighted high school GPA, math placement test scores, and the highest level of math taken in high school to develop models for predicting those who were likely to pass their first math and science courses. In doing so, the study aimed to provide a strategy to address the challenge of improving the passing rates of those first-year students attempting STEM-related courses. The study sample included 1018 first-year STEM majors who had entered the same large, public, urban, Hispanic-serving, research university in the Southeastern U.S. between 2010 and 2012. The research design involved the use of hierarchical logistic regression to determine the significance of utilizing the four independent variables to develop models for predicting success in math and science. The resulting data indicated that the overall model of predictors (which included all four predictor variables) was statistically significant for predicting those students who passed their first math course and for predicting those students who passed their first science course. Individually, all four predictor variables were found to be statistically significant for predicting those who had passed math, with the unweighted high school GPA and the highest math taken in high school accounting for the largest amount of unique variance. Those two variables also improved the regression model’s percentage of correctly predicting that dependent variable. The only variable that was found to be statistically significant for predicting those who had passed science was the students’ unweighted high school GPA. Overall, the results of my study have been offered as my contribution to the literature on predicting first-year student success, especially within the STEM disciplines.

Accountability, Quality, and Student Success in Online Education: A Literature Review of Empirical Studies

This paper examines empirical studies on accountability, quality, and student success in online education. It advances that accountability and quality are critical components for student success in online education. It concludes that there is a lack of empirical studies that examine the effects of these measures on student success.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and egg production, hatching and metabolic rates of a Mediterranean copepod species (Acartia clausi) in a laboratory experiment

This study includes the first information on the combined effect of low pH and raised temperature on egg production rate (EP), hatching success (HS), excretion and respiration of the Mediterranean copepod Acartia clausi. Adult individuals of A. clausi and fresh surface seawater were collected at a coastal station in Saronikos Gulf during April 2012. Four different conditions were applied: two different pH levels (present: 8.09 and future: 7.83) at two temperature values (present: 16°C and present+4 °C= 20°C). EP and HS success decreased significantly over the duration of exposure at future pH at both temperature conditions. However, the analysis of the combined effect of pH, T, chlorophyll a and the duration of the experiments on EP and HS revealed that ocean acidification had no discernible effect, whereas warming; food and the duration of exposure were more significant for the reproductive output of A. clausi. Temperature appeared to have a positive effect on respiration and excretion. Acidification had no clear effect on respiration, but a negative effect on the A. clausi excretion was observed. Acidification and warming resulted in the increase of the excretion rate and the increase was higher than that observed by warming only. Our findings showed that a direct effect of ocean acidification on copepod's vital rates was not obvious, except maybe in the case of excretion. Therefore, the combination of acidification with the ambient oligotrophic conditions and the warming could result in species being less able to allocate resources for coping with multiple stressors.

Influence of Food Distribution and Human Disturbance on the Reproductive Success of Herring Gulls

A three year study of Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) reproductive success on four i~lands in Maine indicate.d that production of young was controlled by different factors operating on the eggs and chicks. Hatching success was inversely related to the disturbance of co.Ionics by pic~i~kers, which apparently caused the adults to leave their eggs exposed 10 sufficient solar rad1a11on to addle the eggs. The survival of chicks was lower on islands distant ~rom sources of edible r~~use (ou.ter. islands) than o.n. islands close to sources of waste (inner islands), regardless of visits by picnickers. The nutrition and growth rates of chicks on inner and outer islands were similar. The attendance of parents on the territories was found to be less o~ an out~r islan~ than on an inner island. It is concluded that differences in parental behavior associated with greater foraging effort were responsible for a higher loss of chicks to predation on the outer islands.

Brazilian multicentre study of common mental disorders in primary care: rates and related social and demographic factors

Mental health problems are common in primary health care, particularly anxiety and depression. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of common mental disorders and their associations with socio-demographic characteristics in primary care in Brazil (Family Health Strategy). It involved a multicenter cross-sectional study with patients from Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Fortaleza (Ceará State) and Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul State), assessed using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HAD). The rate of mental disorders in patients from Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre were found to be, respectively, 51.9%, 53.3%, 64.3% and 57.7% with significant differences between Porto Alegre and Fortaleza compared to Rio de Janeiro after adjusting for confounders. Prevalence proportions of mental problems were especially common for females, the unemployed, those with less education and those with lower incomes. In the context of the Brazilian government's moves towards developing primary health care and reorganizing mental health policies it is relevant to consider common mental disorders as a priority alongside other chronic health conditions.

Seed dispersal of Solanum thomasiifolium Sendtner (Solanaceae) in the Linhares Forest, Espírito Santo state, Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyse seed dispersal and establishment of Solanum thomasiifolium in an area of nativo vegetation in Espirito Santo state on the southeastern Brazilian coast. Ten species of birds, the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous), and one species of lizard (Tropidurus torquatus) fed on S. thomasiifolium fruits and dispersed viable seeds in their faeces. The proportional contribution of each of these groups to seed dispersal was 77% (birds), 19% (crab-eating fox) and 4% (lizards). Ants also contributed to seed dispersal. More seeds were deposited in vegetation islands than in the surrounding open areas. Germination rates of seeds collected directly from fruit (control), bird droppings, the faeces of crab-eating foxes and lizards were, respectively, 64, 64, 53, and 80 %. Differences among these rates were all significant, except between birds and control. Lizards were important as seed carriers between nearby islands and they expelled a higher proportion of viable seeds. Birds and the crab-eating foxes did not enhance seed germination, but promoted seed dispersal over a wider area. Plant architecture, fruit productivity, fruit characteristics and the diversity of frugivores are important for the success of S. thomasiifolium in habitat colonization.