Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

UTILIZATION OF GIS AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES IN ARTISANAL AND SMALL SCALE MINING TO LOCATE A CENTRALIZED PROCESSING CENTRE

One of the global phenomena with threats to environmental health and safety is artisanal mining. There are ambiguities in the manner in which an ore-processing facility operates which hinders the mining capacity of these miners in Ghana. These problems are reviewed on the basis of current socio-economic, health and safety, environmental, and use of rudimentary technologies which limits fair-trade deals to miners. This research sought to use an established data-driven, geographic information (GIS)-based system employing the spatial analysis approach for locating a centralized processing facility within the Wassa Amenfi-Prestea Mining Area (WAPMA) in the Western region of Ghana. A spatial analysis technique that utilizes ModelBuilder within the ArcGIS geoprocessing environment through suitability modeling will systematically and simultaneously analyze a geographical dataset of selected criteria. The spatial overlay analysis methodology and the multi-criteria decision analysis approach were selected to identify the most preferred locations to site a processing facility. For an optimal site selection, seven major criteria including proximity to settlements, water resources, artisanal mining sites, roads, railways, tectonic zones, and slopes were considered to establish a suitable location for a processing facility. Site characterizations and environmental considerations, incorporating identified constraints such as proximity to large scale mines, forest reserves and state lands to site an appropriate position were selected. The analysis was limited to criteria that were selected and relevant to the area under investigation. Saaty’s analytical hierarchy process was utilized to derive relative importance weights of the criteria and then a weighted linear combination technique was applied to combine the factors for determination of the degree of potential site suitability. The final map output indicates estimated potential sites identified for the establishment of a facility centre. The results obtained provide intuitive areas suitable for consideration

The large- and small-scale Ca IIK structure of the Milky Way from observations of Galactic and Magellanic sightlines

Aims. The large and small-scale (pc) structure of the Galactic interstellar medium can be investigated by utilising spectra of early-type stellar probes of known distances in the same region of the sky. This paper determines the variation in line strength of Ca ii at 3933.661 Å as a function of probe separation for a large sample of stars, including a number of sightlines in the Magellanic Clouds. 

Methods. FLAMES-GIRAFFE data taken with the Very Large Telescope towards early-type stars in 3 Galactic and 4 Magellanic open clusters in Ca ii are used to obtain the velocity, equivalent width, column density, and line width of interstellar Galactic calcium for a total of 657 stars, of which 443 are Magellanic Cloud sightlines. In each cluster there are between 43 and 111 stars observed. Additionally, FEROS and UVES Ca ii K and Na i D spectra of 21 Galactic and 154 Magellanic early-type stars are presented and combined with data from the literature to study the calcium column density - parallax relationship. 

Results. For the four Magellanic clusters studied with FLAMES, the strength of the Galactic interstellar Ca ii K equivalent width on transverse scales from ∼0.05-9 pc is found to vary by factors of ∼1.8-3.0, corresponding to column density variations of ∼0.3-0.5 dex in the optically-thin approximation. Using FLAMES, FEROS, and UVES archive spectra, the minimum and maximum reduced equivalent widths for Milky Way gas are found to lie in the range ∼35-125 mÅ and ∼30-160 mÅ for Ca ii K and Na i D, respectively. The range is consistent with a previously published simple model of the interstellar medium consisting of spherical cloudlets of filling factor ∼0.3, although other geometries are not ruled out. Finally, the derived functional form for parallax (π) and Ca ii column density (N_CaII) is found to be π(mas) = 1 / (2.39 × 10^-13 × N_CaII (cm^-2) + 0.11). Our derived parallax is ∼25 per cent lower than predicted by Megier et al. (2009, A&A, 507, 833) at a distance of ∼100 pc and ∼15 percent lower at a distance of ∼200 pc, reflecting inhomogeneity in the Ca ii distribution in the different sightlines studied.

Resilience of small-scale societies: a view from drylands

To gain insights on long-term social-ecological resilience, we examined adaptive responses of small-scale societies to dryland-related hazards in different regions and chronological periods, spanning from the mid-Holocene to the present. Based on evidence from Africa (Sahara and Sahel), Asia (south margin of the Thar desert), and Europe (South Spain), we discuss key traits and coping practices of small-scale societies that are potentially relevant for building resilience. The selected case studies illustrate four main coping mechanisms: mobility and migration, storage, commoning, and collective action driven by religious beliefs. Ultimately, the study of resilience in the context of drylands emphasizes the importance of adaptive traits and practices that are distinctive of small-scale societies: a strong social-ecological coupling, a solid body of traditional ecological knowledge, and a high degree of internal cohesion and self-organization.

Multilevel processes and cultural adaptation: examples from past and present small-scale societies

The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of “cultural adaptation” from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory.

Resilience of small-scale societies’ livelihoods: a framework for studying the transition from food gathering to food production

The origins of agriculture and the shift from hunting and gathering to committed agriculture is regarded as one of the major transitions in human history. Archeologists and anthropologists have invested significant efforts in explaining the origins of agriculture. A period of gathering intensification and experimentation and pursuing a mixed economic strategy seems the most plausible explanation for the transition to agriculture and provides an approach to study a process in which several nonlinear processes may have played a role. However, the mechanisms underlying the transition to full agriculture are not completely clear. This is partly due to the nature of the archeological record, which registers a practice only once it has become clearly established. Thus, points of transitions have limited visibility and the mechanisms involved in the process are difficult to untangle. The complexity of such transitions also implies that shifts can be distinctively different in particular environments and under varying historical and social conditions. In this paper we discuss some of the elements involved in the transition to food production within the framework of resilience theory. We propose a theoretical conceptual model in which the resilience of livelihood strategies lies at the intersection of three spheres: the environmental, economical, and social domains. Transitions occur when the rate of change, in one or more of these domains, is so elevated or its magnitude so large that the livelihood system is unable to bounce back to its original state. In this situation, the system moves to an alternative stable state, from one livelihood strategy to another.

Integrating a mobile accessible electronic system into dockside monitoring: How can small-scale fisheries data collection programs transition from paper-based to digital data collection?

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Solar magnetic carpet II: coronal interactions of small-scale magnetic fields

This paper is the second in a series of studies working towards constructing a realistic, evolving, non-potential coronal model for the solar magnetic carpet. In the present study, the interaction of two magnetic elements is considered. Our objectives are to study magnetic energy build-up, storage and dissipation as a result of emergence, cancellation, and flyby of these magnetic elements. In the future these interactions will be the basic building blocks of more complicated simulations involving hundreds of elements. Each interaction is simulated in the presence of an overlying uniform magnetic field, which lies at various orientations with respect to the evolving magnetic elements. For these three small-scale interactions, the free energy stored in the field at the end of the simulation ranges from 0.2 – 2.1×1026 ergs, whilst the total energy dissipated ranges from 1.3 – 6.3×1026 ergs. For all cases, a stronger overlying field results in higher energy storage and dissipation. For the cancellation and emergence simulations, motion perpendicular to the overlying field results in the highest values. For the flyby simulations, motion parallel to the overlying field gives the highest values. In all cases, the free energy built up is sufficient to explain small-scale phenomena such as X-ray bright points or nanoflares. In addition, if scaled for the correct number of magnetic elements for the volume considered, the energy continually dissipated provides a significant fraction of the quiet Sun coronal heating budget.

Modelling the Sun's small scale global photospheric magnetic field

We present a new model for the Sun's global photospheric magnetic field during a deep minimum of activity, in which no active regions emerge. The emergence and subsequent evolution of small- scale magnetic features across the full solar surface is simulated, subject to the influence of a global supergranular flow pattern. Visually, the resulting simulated magnetograms reproduce the typical structure and scale observed in quiet Sun magnetograms. Quantitatively, the simulation quickly reaches a steady state, resulting in a mean field and flux distribution that are in good agreement with those determined from observations. A potential coronal magnetic field is extrapolated from the simulated full Sun magnetograms, to consider the implications of such a quiet photospheric magnetic field on the corona and inner heliosphere. The bulk of the coronal magnetic field closes very low down, in short connections between small-scale features in the simulated magnetic network. Just 0.1% of the photospheric magnetic flux is found to be open at 2:5 Rʘ, around 10 - 100 times less than that determined for typical HMI synoptic map observations. If such conditions were to exist on the Sun, this would lead to a significantly weaker interplanetary magnetic field than is presently observed, and hence a much higher cosmic ray flux at Earth.

Small scale turbulence and mixing in semi-enclosed seas (Persian Gulf)

Turbulence and internal waves are probably important in generating layered structures in frontal region of marine environments (e.g. near river plumes outflow into the sea). Here we investigate the role of normal modes of internal waves in generation of layered structure in a part of Persian Gulf where river plume inters and in some laboratory experiments. The model prediction and observations show that layers so formed have a thickness of about 2m based on salinity variations with depth, but layers (about 5m) based on horizontal velocity profiles. Laboratory experiments with a plume outflow in a Filling Box profile also generate normal mode layered structure with 21H=0.5 (where A is layer thickness and H is the plume depth). In these experiments as Re of the flow is smaller than the Re of field flow. The normal modes are substantially dissipated with depth. Typical values of dissipation factor is about 0(100). This factor for field observation is 0(10) which is still substantial. Qualitative comparison between layered structure in field and laboratory is good. It should be emphasized that field observation is for semi-enclosed seas but the laboratory experiments are for enclosed region. Hence some of the discrepancies in the results of two cases are inevitable. Layered structures in marine environments are also produced by double diffusive convection. In this region this should be studied separately.

Ecoviability for small-scale fisheries in the context of food security constraints

This paper applies a stochastic viability approach to a tropical small-scale fishery, offering a theoretical and empirical example of ecosystem-based fishery management approach that accounts for food security. The model integrates multi-species, multi-fleet and uncertainty as well as profitability, food production, and demographic growth. It is calibrated over the period 2006–2010 using monthly catch and effort data from the French Guiana's coastal fishery, involving thirteen species and four fleets. Using projections at the horizon 2040, different management strategies and scenarios are compared from a viability viewpoint, thus accounting for biodiversity preservation, fleet profitability and food security. The analysis shows that under certain conditions, viable options can be identified which allow fishing intensity and production to be increased to respond to food security requirements but with minimum impacts on the marine resources.

WFF-WFFP-ICSF-CIC: national workshop on capacity-building for the implementation of the voluntary guidelines for securing sustainable small-scale fisheries (SSF guidelines) - report, 21 and 22 March 2016 Multi-Purpose Hall, India International Centre, New Delhi, India

The report of the proceedings of the New Delhi workshop on the SSF Guidelines (Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-scale Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication). The workshop brought together 95 participants from 13 states representing civil society organizations. governments, FAO, and fishworker organizations from both the marine and inland fisheries sectors. This report will be found useful for fishworker organizations, researchers, policy makers, members of civil society and anyone interested in small-scale fisheries, tenure rights, social development, livelihoods, post harvest and trade and disasters and climate change.

Small-scale fishing in Central American indigenous people: governance, tenure and sustainable management of marine resources

This research develops four case studies on small-scale fisheries in Central America located within indigenous territories. The ngöbe Bugle Conte Burica Territory in the south of Costa Rica, the Garífuna territory in nueva Armenia Honduras, the Rama territory in Nicaragua and the ngöbe Bugle territory in Bocas del Toro, Panamá. This is one of the first studies focusing on indigenous territories, artisanal fisheries and SSF guidelines. The cases are a first approach to discussing and analyzing relevant social and human rights issues related to conservation of marine resources and fisheries management in these territories. The cases discussed between other issues of interest, the relationships between marine protected areas under different governance models and issues related to the strengthening of the small-scale fisheries of these indigenous populations and marine fishing territories. They highlight sustainability, governance, land tenure and access to fishing resources, gender, traditional knowledge importance and new challenges as climate change.

Social relations and dynamics shaping the implementation of the voluntary guidelines on small-scale fisheries (SSF guidelines) in South Africa

Integral to achieving the SSF Guidelines goal of targeting the most vulnerable and marginalized persons and eliminating discrimination is the need to have adequate understanding of the power relations and intersectionalities that shape access to and control over marine and other resources according to gender, age, race, ethnicity, labour and migratory status, disability, geographic location and other characteristics relevant in each national contexts. This monograph identifies and explores the key social relations and dynamics in the SSF fisheries sector in South Africa impacting the implementation of the SSF Guidelines. The monograph will be useful for researchers, scientists, fishworker organizations, environmentalists and anyone interested in the protection of marine biodiversity and the promotion of sustainable fisheries management.