934 resultados para small area estimation
Resumo:
The community structure and dynamics as well as some biological parameters of selected species of the ichthyofauna of the Mataripe estuarine region affected by the Landulfo Alves Oil Refinery (RLAM) were analyzed. Twenty stations were sampled with a gillnet in five different periods: August and December 2003, March and July/August 2004 and January 2005. Thirty-five actinopterygian species and one elasmobranch species were recorded, Oligoplites saurus, Diapterus rhombeus, Lutjanus synagris and Scomberomorus brasiliensis among them, on all the campaigns. A total of 1368 specimens, weighing 36.10 kg, were caught. The ichthyofauna total biomass was greater, in weight, on the eastern side of the study region, especially at the stations close to the shoals/reefs and the rocky bottom. A similar pattern was also observed for the diversity values. In general, low evenness and diversity were observed in the area studied, possibly as a result of the fishing gear used. D. rhombeus juveniles dominated in all but one of the samplings (July 2004), in which latter Cyclichthys spinosus was dominant. Carangids and species associated with consolidated bottoms were observed, although in small numbers, throughout the study period. In spite of the limitations imposed by the gear used for sampling, the estuarine area influenced by the RLAM was seen to play a role as a growth area for the great majority of species, especially the mojarra (D. rhombeus), but it offers no fishing potential due to the prevalence of young and small individuals. Evidence of imminent spawning was recorded for Pomadasys corvinaeformis in August 2003, and recent spawning in March 2004 for Oligoplites saurus. Further, mature individuals occurred in insufficient numbers to permit population level evaluation.
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Phlebotomines (Diptera, Psychodidae) in the Speleological Province of the Ribeira Valley: 3. Area of hostels for tourists who visit the Parque Estadual do Alto Ribeira (PETAR), state of São Paulo, Brazil. The study characterizes some ecological aspects of the phlebotomine fauna in an endemic area of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) situated in the Serra district, Iporanga municipality where the hostels for tourists visiting the PETAR are located. Captures were undertaken on a smallholding and a small farm situated near the hostels, monthly between January/2001 and December/2003 with automatic light traps (ALT) in pigsty, hen-house and veranda of a domicile at the two sites, and in peridomicile of the small farm also with black/white Shannon traps. With the ALT a total of 87,224 phlebotomines representing 19 species and also two hybrids of Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva) and Nyssomyia neivai (Pinto) and two anomalous specimens were captured. The standardized index species abundance was for Ny. intermedia = 1.0 and Ny. neivai = 0.935. The highest frequencies of the smallholding occurred in the pigsty, the Williams' mean/capture for Ny. intermedia being 63.7 specimens and for Ny. neivai 29.2, and on the small farm, in the hen-house, Ny. intermedia 402.6 and Ny. neivai 116.2. A total of 863 phlebotomines (Ny. intermedia: 75.4%; Ny. neivai: 24.3%) were captured with black/white Shannon traps; females of both species being predominant in the white trap. The high frequencies of Ny. intermedia and Ny. neivai, both implicated in CL transmission, indicate the areas presenting risk of the disease.
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Yellow fever (YF) is an acute viral infectious disease transmitted by mosquitoes which occurs in two distinct epidemiological cycles: sylvatic and urban. In the sylvatic cycle, the virus is maintained by monkey's infection and transovarian transmission in vectors. Surveillance of non-human primates is required for the detection of viral circulation during epizootics, and for the identification of unaffected or transition areas. An ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was standardized for estimation of the prevalence of IgG antibodies against yellow fever virus in monkey sera (Alouatta caraya) from the reservoir area of Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Plant, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 570 monkey sera samples were tested and none was reactive to antibodies against yellow fever virus. The results corroborate the epidemiology of yellow fever in the area. Even though it is considered a transition area, there were no reports to date of epizootics or yellow fever outbreaks in humans. Also, entomological investigations did not detect the presence of vectors of this arbovirus infection. ELISA proved to be fast, sensitive, an adequate assay, and an instrument for active search in the epidemiological surveillance of yellow fever allowing the implementation of prevention actions, even before the occurrence of epizootics.
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Cryptosporidium spp. are important cause of enteric disease in humans, but may also infect animals. This study describes the relative frequency of several Cryptosporidium species found in human specimens from HIV infected patients in the São Paulo municipality obtained from January to July 2007. Sequence analysis of the products of nested-PCR based on small subunit rRNA and Cryptosporidium oocyst wall protein coding genes revealed 17 (63.0%) isolates of C. hominis, four (14.8%) C. parvum, five (18.5%) C. felis and one (3.7%) C. canis. These findings suggest that, in urban environments of Brazil, the cat adapted C. felis may play a potential role in the zoonotic transmission of cryptosporidiosis whereas the anthroponotic transmission of cryptosporidiosis caused by C. hominis seems to predominate.
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A febre amarela (FA) é doença infecciosa aguda de origem viral transmitida por mosquitos. No ciclo silvestre, o vírus é mantido por meio da infecção de macacos e da transmissão transovariana nos vetores. A vigilância sobre populações de primatas não humanos torna-se necessária para detectar a circulação viral, quando ainda está restrito a epizootias, e para determinar sua presença em regiões indenes ou de transição para a doença. Padronizou-se a técnica ELISA (Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay) para determinar a prevalência de anticorpos da classe IgG contra o vírus da FA em soros de bugios (Alouatta caraya) da região do reservatório da Usina Hidrelétrica de Porto Primavera, SP. Foram testados soros de 570 macacos sendo que nenhuma amostra mostrou-se reativa para a presença de anticorpos contra o vírus da FA. Os resultados são coerentes com a epidemiologia da FA na região. Mesmo sendo área de transição, não se conhece, até o momento, ocorrência de epizootia ou surto de FA em humanos e investigações entomológicas não apontaram a presença de vetores para esta arbovirose. A técnica mostrou-se sensível, rápida e útil à vigilância epidemiológica como instrumento de busca ativa permitindo desencadear ações preventivas, como vacinação, antes mesmo do surgimento de epizootias
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Small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) images of normal breast tissue and benign and malignant breast tumour tissues, fixed in formalin, were measured at the momentum transfer range of 0.063 nm(-1) <= q (=4 pi sin(theta/2)/lambda) <= 2.720 nm(-1). Four intrinsic parameters were extracted from the scattering profiles (1D SAXS image reduced) and, from the combination of these parameters, another three parameters were also created. All parameters, intrinsic and derived, were subject to discriminant analysis, and it was verified that parameters such as the area of diffuse scatter at the momentum transfer range 0.50 <= q <= 0.56 nm(-1), the ratio between areas of fifth-order axial and third-order lateral peaks and third-order axial spacing provide the most significant information for diagnosis (p < 0.001). Thus, in this work it was verified that by combining these three parameters it was possible to classify human breast tissues as normal, benign lesion or malignant lesion with a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 100%.
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This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.
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Finite-size scaling analysis turns out to be a powerful tool to calculate the phase diagram as well as the critical properties of two-dimensional classical statistical mechanics models and quantum Hamiltonians in one dimension. The most used method to locate quantum critical points is the so-called crossing method, where the estimates are obtained by comparing the mass gaps of two distinct lattice sizes. The success of this method is due to its simplicity and the ability to provide accurate results even considering relatively small lattice sizes. In this paper, we introduce an estimator that locates quantum critical points by exploring the known distinct behavior of the entanglement entropy in critical and noncritical systems. As a benchmark test, we use this new estimator to locate the critical point of the quantum Ising chain and the critical line of the spin-1 Blume-Capel quantum chain. The tricritical point of this last model is also obtained. Comparison with the standard crossing method is also presented. The method we propose is simple to implement in practice, particularly in density matrix renormalization group calculations, and provides us, like the crossing method, amazingly accurate results for quite small lattice sizes. Our applications show that the proposed method has several advantages, as compared with the standard crossing method, and we believe it will become popular in future numerical studies.
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We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.
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A recent estimate of CO(2) outgassing from Amazonian wetlands suggests that an order of magnitude more CO(2) leaves rivers through gas exchange with the atmosphere than is exported to the ocean as organic plus inorganic carbon. However, the contribution of smaller rivers is still poorly understood, mainly because of limitations in mapping their spatial extent. Considering that the largest extension of the Amazon River network is composed of small rivers, the authors` objective was to elucidate their role in air-water CO(2) exchange by developing a geographic information system ( GIS)- based model to calculate the surface area covered by rivers with channels less than 100 m wide, combined with estimated CO(2) outgassing rates at the Ji-Parana River basin, in the western Amazon. Estimated CO(2) outgassing was the main carbon export pathway for this river basin, totaling 289 Gg C yr(-1), about 2.4 times the amount of carbon exported as dissolved inorganic carbon ( 121 Gg C yr(-1)) and 1.6 times the dissolved organic carbon export ( 185 Gg C yr(-1)). The relationships established here between drainage area and channel width provide a new model for determining small river surface area, allowing regional extrapolations of air - water gas exchange. Applying this model to the entire Amazon River network of channels less than 100 m wide ( third to fifth order), the authors calculate that the surface area of small rivers is 0.3 +/- 0.05 million km(2), and it is potentially evading to the atmosphere 170 +/- 42 Tg C yr(-1) as CO(2). Therefore, these ecosystems play an important role in the regional carbon balance.
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The flowpaths by which water moves from watersheds to streams has important consequences for the runoff dynamics and biogeochemistry of surface waters in the Amazon Basin. The clearing of Amazon forest to cattle pasture has the potential to change runoff sources to streams by shifting runoff to more surficial flow pathways. We applied end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) to 10 small watersheds throughout the Amazon in which solute composition of streamwater and groundwater, overland flow, soil solution, throughfall and rainwater were measured, largely as part of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia. We found a range in the extent to which streamwater samples fell within the mixing space determined by potential flowpath end-members, suggesting that some water sources to streams were not sampled. The contribution of overland flow as a source of stream flow was greater in pasture watersheds than in forest watersheds of comparable size. Increases in overland flow contribution to pasture streams ranged in some cases from 0% in forest to 27-28% in pasture and were broadly consistent with results from hydrometric sampling of Amazon forest and pasture watersheds that indicate 17- to 18-fold increase in the overland flow contribution to stream flow in pastures. In forest, overland flow was an important contribution to stream flow (45-57%) in ephemeral streams where flows were dominated by stormflow. Overland flow contribution to stream flow decreased in importance with increasing watershed area, from 21 to 57% in forest and 60-89% in pasture watersheds of less than 10 ha to 0% in forest and 27-28% in pastures in watersheds greater than 100 ha. Soil solution contributions to stream flow were similar across watershed area and groundwater inputs generally increased in proportion to decreases in overland flow. Application of EMMA across multiple watersheds indicated patterns across gradients of stream size and land cover that were consistent with patterns determined by detailed hydrometric sampling.
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Sound source localization (SSL) is an essential task in many applications involving speech capture and enhancement. As such, speaker localization with microphone arrays has received significant research attention. Nevertheless, existing SSL algorithms for small arrays still have two significant limitations: lack of range resolution, and accuracy degradation with increasing reverberation. The latter is natural and expected, given that strong reflections can have amplitudes similar to that of the direct signal, but different directions of arrival. Therefore, correctly modeling the room and compensating for the reflections should reduce the degradation due to reverberation. In this paper, we show a stronger result. If modeled correctly, early reflections can be used to provide more information about the source location than would have been available in an anechoic scenario. The modeling not only compensates for the reverberation, but also significantly increases resolution for range and elevation. Thus, we show that under certain conditions and limitations, reverberation can be used to improve SSL performance. Prior attempts to compensate for reverberation tried to model the room impulse response (RIR). However, RIRs change quickly with speaker position, and are nearly impossible to track accurately. Instead, we build a 3-D model of the room, which we use to predict early reflections, which are then incorporated into the SSL estimation. Simulation results with real and synthetic data show that even a simplistic room model is sufficient to produce significant improvements in range and elevation estimation, tasks which would be very difficult when relying only on direct path signal components.
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In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Specific leaf area (SLA; m(leaf)(2) kg(leaf)(-1)) is a key ecophysiological parameter influencing leaf physiology, photosynthesis, and whole plant carbon gain. Both individual tree-based models and other forest process-based models are generally highly sensitive to this parameter, but information on its temporal or within-stand variability is still scarce. In a 2-4-year-old Eucalyptus plantation in Congo, prone to seasonal drought, the within-stand and seasonal variability in SLA were investigated by means of destructive sampling carried out at 2-month intervals, over a 2-year period. Within-crown vertical gradients of SLA were small. Highly significant relationships were found between tree-average SLA (SLA(t)) and tree size (tree height, H(t), or diameter at breast height, DBH): SLA(t) ranged from about 9 m(2) kg(-1) for dominant trees to about 14-15 m(2) kg(-1) for the smallest trees. The decrease in SLA(t) with increasing tree size was accurately predicted from DBH using power functions. Stand-average SLA varied by about 20% during the year, with lowest values at the end of the 5-month dry season, and highest values about 2-3 months after the onset of the wet season. Variability in leaf water status according to tree size and season is discussed as a possible determinant of both the within-stand and seasonal variations in SM. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The aim of this study was to use DSC and X-ray diffraction measurements to determine the pore size and pore wall thickness of highly ordered SBA-15 materials. The DSC curves showed two endothermic events during the heating cycle. These events were due to the presence of water inside and outside of mesopores. The results of pore radius, wall thickness and pore volume measurements were in good agreement with the results obtained by nitrogen adsorption measurement, XRD and transmission electron microscopy.