Financing social security : issues and options for the long run.

"November 1982"--Cover.

Simulating the long-run aggregate economic and intergenerational redistributive effects of social security policy /

"August 1992."

Comparative study of periphyton community structure in long and short-hydroperiod Everglades marshes

The Florida Everglades is a mosaic of short and long-hydroperiod marshes that differ in the depth, duration, and timing of inundation. Algae are important primary producers in widespread Everglades’ periphyton mats, but relationships of algal production and community structure to hydrologic variability are poorly understood. We quantified differences in algal biomass and community structure between periphyton mats in 5 short and 6 long-hydroperiod marshes in Everglades National Park (ENP) in October 2000. We related differences to water depth and total phosphorus (TP) concentration in the water, periphyton and soils. Long and short-hydroperiod marshes differed in water depth (73 cm vs. 13 cm), periphyton TP concentrations (172μg g−1 vs. 107 μg g−1, respectively) and soil TP (284 μg g−1 vs. 145 μg g−1). Periphyton was abundant in both marshes, with short-hydroperiod sites having greater biomass than long-hydroperiod sites (2936 vs. 575 grams ash-free dry mass m−2). A total of 156 algal taxa were identified and separated into diatom (68 species from 21 genera) and “soft algae” (88 non-diatom species from 47 genera) categories for further analyses. Although diatom total abundance was greater in long-hydroperiod mats, diatom species richness was significantly greater in short- hydroperiod periphyton mats (62 vs. 47 diatom taxa). Soft algal species richness was greater in long-hydroperiod sites (81 vs. 67 soft algae taxa). Relative abundances of individual taxa were significantly different among the two site types, with soft algal distributions being driven by water depth, and diatom distributions by water depth and TP concentration in the water and periphyton. Periphyton communities differ between short and long-hydroperiod marshes, but because they share many taxa, alterations in hydroperiod could rapidly

A retrospective-longitudinal examination of the relationship between apportionment of seat time in community-college algebra courses and student academic performance

During the past decade, there has been a dramatic increase by postsecondary institutions in providing academic programs and course offerings in a multitude of formats and venues (Biemiller, 2009; Kucsera & Zimmaro, 2010; Lang, 2009; Mangan, 2008). Strategies pertaining to reapportionment of course-delivery seat time have been a major facet of these institutional initiatives; most notably, within many open-door 2-year colleges. Often, these enrollment-management decisions are driven by the desire to increase market-share, optimize the usage of finite facility capacity, and contain costs, especially during these economically turbulent times. So, while enrollments have surged to the point where nearly one in three 18-to-24 year-old U.S. undergraduates are community college students (Pew Research Center, 2009), graduation rates, on average, still remain distressingly low (Complete College America, 2011). Among the learning-theory constructs related to seat-time reapportionment efforts is the cognitive phenomenon commonly referred to as the spacing effect, the degree to which learning is enhanced by a series of shorter, separated sessions as opposed to fewer, more massed episodes. This ex post facto study explored whether seat time in a postsecondary developmental-level algebra course is significantly related to: course success; course-enrollment persistence; and, longitudinally, the time to successfully complete a general-education-level mathematics course. Hierarchical logistic regression and discrete-time survival analysis were used to perform a multi-level, multivariable analysis of a student cohort (N = 3,284) enrolled at a large, multi-campus, urban community college. The subjects were retrospectively tracked over a 2-year longitudinal period. The study found that students in long seat-time classes tended to withdraw earlier and more often than did their peers in short seat-time classes (p < .05). Additionally, a model comprised of nine statistically significant covariates (all with p-values less than .01) was constructed. However, no longitudinal seat-time group differences were detected nor was there sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that seat time was predictive of developmental-level course success. A principal aim of this study was to demonstrate—to educational leaders, researchers, and institutional-research/business-intelligence professionals—the advantages and computational practicability of survival analysis, an underused but more powerful way to investigate changes in students over time.

Debt-growth linkages in EMU across countries and time horizons

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth model augmented for public debt using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our findings tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EMU countries, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.

A comparative study: long and short term effect of a nutrition sensitive approach to delay the progression of HIV to AIDS among people living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria

Background: Malnutrition has a negative impact on optimal immune function, thus increasing susceptibility to morbidity and mortality among HIV positive patients. Evidence indicates that the prevalence of macro and micronutrient deficiencies (particularly magnesium, selenium, zinc, and vitamin C) has a negative impact on optimal immune function, through the progressive depletion of CD4 T-lymphocyte cells, which thereby increases susceptibility to morbidity and mortality among PLWH. Objective: To assess the short and long term effects of a nutrition sensitive intervention to delay the progression of human immune-deficiency virus (HIV) to AIDS among people living with HIV in Abuja, Nigeria. Methods: A randomized control trial was carried out on 400 PLWH (adult, male and female of different religious background) in Nigeria between January and December 2012. Out of these 400 participants, 100 were randomly selected for the pilot study, which took place over six months (January to June, 2012). The participants in the pilot study overlapped to form part of the scale-up participants (n 400) monitored from June to December 2012. The comparative effect of daily 354.92 kcal/d optimized meals consumed for six and twelve months was ascertained through the nutritional status and biochemical indices of the study participants (n=100 pilot interventions), who were and were not taking the intervention meal. The meal consisted of: Glycine max 50g (Soya bean); Pennisetum americanum 20g (Millet); Moringa oleifera 15g (Moringa); Daucus carota spp. sativa 15g (Carrot). Results: At the end of sixth month intervention, mean CD4 cell count (cell/mm3) for Pre-ART and ART Test groups increased by 6.31% and 12.12% respectively. Mean mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) for Pre-ART and ART Test groups increased by 2.72% and 2.52% within the same period (n 400). Comparatively, participants who overlapped from pilot to scale-up intervention (long term use, n 100) were assessed for 12 months. Mean CD4 cell count (cell/mm3) for Pre-ART and ART test groups increased by 2.21% and 12.14%. Mean MUAC for Pre-ART and ART test groups increased by 2.08% and 3.95% respectively. Moreover, student’s t-test analysis suggests a strong association between the intervention meal, MUAC, and CD4 count on long term use of optimized meal in the group of participants being treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) (P<0.05). Conclusion: Although the achieved results take the form of specific technology, it suggests that a prolong consumption of the intervention meal will be suitable to sustain the gained improvements in the anthropometric and biochemical indices of PLWHIV in Nigeria.

This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Evaluating Form and Functionality of Pay-For-Performance Plans: The Relative Incentive and Sorting Effects of Merit Pay, Bonuses, and Long-Term Incentives

Using two-year longitudinal data from a large sample of US employees from a service-related organization, the present study investigates the relative effects of three forms of pay-for-performance plans on employees’ job performance (incentive effects) and voluntary turnover (sorting effects). The study differentiates between three forms of pay: merit pay, individual-based bonuses, and long-term incentives. By definition, these PFP plans have different structural elements that distinguish them from each other (i.e., pay plan form) and different characteristics (functionality), such as the degree to which pay and performance are linked and the size of the rewards, which can vary both within and across plan types. Our results provide evidence that merit raises have larger incentive and sorting effects than bonuses and long-term incentives in multi-PFP plan environments where the three PFP plans are operating simultaneously. Only merit pay has both incentive and sorting effects among the three PFP plans. The implications for the PFP-related theory, as well as for the design and implementation of PFP plans, are discussed.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Reframing Scottish Football: Strategy and the short-term nature of the football industry.

Despite football being deeply entrenched in Scottish culture it is under-researched from a business perspective. This research develops a conceptual framework that views professional football clubs from a number of different perspectives. It draws on strategic management literature since this views the firm as the intersection between internal competence, customer perception and competition within an industry. A review of previous sports business research highlighted five main themes that were used to create a structure for the analysis: on-field performance, attendance, finance, the playing squad and the manager. These themes were used as frames to view the firms within the industry from a number of different perspectives. Each frame allows a different aspect of the firm to be considered singly in turn and then collectively to develop a deeper understanding of the existing frames in use within the industry. The research is based on a pragmatic philosophy that allows mixed methods to be combined to provide both an objective and subjective view of the industry. The subjective view was drawn from five interviews with senior figures within Scottish professional football. These participants were from a number of different roles and organisations within the industry to provide a balance of experiences. The views were triangulated with a descriptive analysis of secondary data from a number of industry sources to establish patterns within and between these frames. A peer group of six clubs was selected as they competed in the Scottish Premier League in each of the seasons within an eleven-year period (2000-2011). The peer group clubs selected were: Aberdeen, Dundee United, Heart of Midlothian (Hearts), Hibernian, Kilmarnock and Motherwell. By focussing on a small group of clubs with a similar on-field record a broad study across the five frames could be carried out in detail without the findings being influenced by the impact of relegation to a lower division or sustained participation in European football. Within each of the original five frames a number of sub-components were identified and linked to the framework; this expanded the content to reflect the findings of this project. There appeared to be little link between on-field performance and attendance although progress to the later stages of cup competitions allowed clubs to connect with fans who do not regularly attend. The relationship between a club’s income and wage bill should be expanded to include interest repayments since this expenditure can be used to highlight future financial problems caused by increased debt levels. Although all of the interview participants spoke with pride of the players that had progressed from the club’s youth academy to success at the highest level the peer group clubs only produced one player each season that played more than ten matches for the club. Almost half of the players signed from the youth academy left the club without playing for the 1st Team. The importance of the relationship between the manager and club chairman was highlighted, although the speed with which managers were appointed suggests that little consideration was given to this before offering a contract. Once appointed there appeared to be little clarity over the job description and areas of responsibility. Several of the interviewees brought experience from other businesses to football but admitted that short-term decision making and entrenched behaviour made change difficult. The conclusion of the research is that by taking a firm-wide view of the club, longer-term decisions can be taken within football. Player development and supporter relationships were both identified as long-term processes that are impacted by the current short-termism. With greater role clarity for managers and a mixture of short and long-term objectives those involved in the industry are more likely to have opportunities to learn from experience and performance, across the different frames, will improve as a result.

DOING MORE WITH SHORT PERIOD DATA: DETERMINING MAGNITUDES FROM CLIPPED AND OVER-RUN SEISMIC DATA AT MOUNT ST. HELENS

How can we calculate earthquake magnitudes when the signal is clipped and over-run? When a volcano is very active, the seismic record may saturate (i.e., the full amplitude of the signal is not recorded) or be over-run (i.e., the end of one event is covered by the start of a new event). The duration, and sometimes the amplitude, of an earthquake signal are necessary for determining event magnitudes; thus, it may be impossible to calculate earthquake magnitudes when a volcano is very active. This problem is most likely to occur at volcanoes with limited networks of short period seismometers. This study outlines two methods for calculating earthquake magnitudes when events are clipped and over-run. The first method entails modeling the shape of earthquake codas as a power law function and extrapolating duration from the decay of the function. The second method draws relations between clipped duration (i.e., the length of time a signal is clipped) and the full duration. These methods allow for magnitudes to be determined within 0.2 to 0.4 units of magnitude. This error is within the range of analyst hand-picks and is within the acceptable limits of uncertainty when quickly quantifying volcanic energy release during volcanic crises. Most importantly, these estimates can be made when data are clipped or over-run. These methods were developed with data from the initial stages of the 2004-2008 eruption at Mount St. Helens. Mount St. Helens is a well-studied volcano with many instruments placed at varying distances from the vent. This fact makes the 2004-2008 eruption a good place to calibrate and refine methodologies that can be applied to volcanoes with limited networks.

A Retrospective-Longitudinal Examination of the Relationship between Apportionment of Seat Time in Community-College Algebra Courses and Student Academic Performance

During the past decade, there has been a dramatic increase by postsecondary institutions in providing academic programs and course offerings in a multitude of formats and venues (Biemiller, 2009; Kucsera & Zimmaro, 2010; Lang, 2009; Mangan, 2008). Strategies pertaining to reapportionment of course-delivery seat time have been a major facet of these institutional initiatives; most notably, within many open-door 2-year colleges. Often, these enrollment-management decisions are driven by the desire to increase market-share, optimize the usage of finite facility capacity, and contain costs, especially during these economically turbulent times. So, while enrollments have surged to the point where nearly one in three 18-to-24 year-old U.S. undergraduates are community college students (Pew Research Center, 2009), graduation rates, on average, still remain distressingly low (Complete College America, 2011). Among the learning-theory constructs related to seat-time reapportionment efforts is the cognitive phenomenon commonly referred to as the spacing effect, the degree to which learning is enhanced by a series of shorter, separated sessions as opposed to fewer, more massed episodes. This ex post facto study explored whether seat time in a postsecondary developmental-level algebra course is significantly related to: course success; course-enrollment persistence; and, longitudinally, the time to successfully complete a general-education-level mathematics course. Hierarchical logistic regression and discrete-time survival analysis were used to perform a multi-level, multivariable analysis of a student cohort (N = 3,284) enrolled at a large, multi-campus, urban community college. The subjects were retrospectively tracked over a 2-year longitudinal period. The study found that students in long seat-time classes tended to withdraw earlier and more often than did their peers in short seat-time classes (p < .05). Additionally, a model comprised of nine statistically significant covariates (all with p-values less than .01) was constructed. However, no longitudinal seat-time group differences were detected nor was there sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that seat time was predictive of developmental-level course success. A principal aim of this study was to demonstrate—to educational leaders, researchers, and institutional-research/business-intelligence professionals—the advantages and computational practicability of survival analysis, an underused but more powerful way to investigate changes in students over time.

Short-term and long-term changes in corneal power are not correlated with axial elongation of the eye induced by orthokeratology in children

PURPOSE: To assess the relationship between short-term and long-term changes in power at different corneal locations relative to the change in central corneal power and the 2-year change in axial elongation relative to baseline in children fitted with orthokeratology contact lenses (OK). METHODS: Thirty-one white European subjects 6 to 12 years of age and with myopia −0.75 to −4.00 DS and astigmatism ≤1.00 DC were fitted with OK. Differences in refractive power 3 and 24 months post-OK in comparison with baseline and relative to the change in central corneal power were determined from corneal topography data in eight different corneal regions (i.e., N[nasal]1, N2, T[temporal]1, T2, I[inferior]1, I2, S[superior]1, S2), and correlated with OK-induced axial length changes at two years relative to baseline. RESULTS: After 2 years of OK lens wear, axial length increased by 0.48±0.18 mm (P0.05). CONCLUSION: The reduction in central corneal power and relative increase in paracentral and pericentral power induced by OK over 2 years were not significantly correlated with concurrent changes in axial length of white European children.