Early childhood education : the natural starting point for environmental education

Young children are most vulnerable to, and most at risk from, environmental and sustainability challenges. Early education investments aimed at addressing such issues, until recently however, have been neglected or under-rated. Fortunately, this is changing. A groundswell of practitioner interest in early childhood environmental education/ education for sustainability is emerging, in contrast to the ‘patches of green’ that have characterised previous decades. Indeed, an international coalition for early childhood education for sustainability (ECEfS) is beginning to develop, evidenced by The Gothenburg Recommendations on Education for Sustainable Development (2008) that identifies early childhood, within a framework of lifelong learning, as a ‘natural starting point’ for all ongoing education for sustainability. This document is important as it is the first international statement to explicitly identify ECEfS as contributing to education for sustainability. The next challenge for ECEfS is for practitioner mobilisation to be matched by research activity aimed at broadening and deepening practice-based responses. This is the next exciting frontier in the legitimisation of ECEfS.

Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Managing the project learning paradox : a set-theoretic approach toward project knowledge transfer

Managing project-based learning is becoming an increasingly important part of project management. This article presents a comparative case study of 12 cases of knowledge transfer between temporary inter-organizational projects and permanent parent organizations. Our set-theoretic analysis of these data yields two major findings. First, a high level of absorptive capacity of the project owner is a necessary condition for successful project knowledge transfer, which implies that the responsibility for knowledge transfer seems to in the first place lie with the project parent organization, not with the project manager. Second, none of the factors are sufficient by themselves. This implies that successful project knowledge transfer is a complex process always involving configurations of multiple factors. We link these implications with the view of projects as complex temporary organizational forms in which successful project managers need to cope with complexity by simultaneously paying attention to both relational and organizational processes.

The undirected feedback vertex set problem has a Poly(k) Kernel

Resolving a noted open problem, we show that the Undirected Feedback Vertex Set problem, parameterized by the size of the solution set of vertices, is in the parameterized complexity class Poly(k), that is, polynomial-time pre-processing is sufficient to reduce an initial problem instance (G, k) to a decision-equivalent simplified instance (G', k') where k' � k, and the number of vertices of G' is bounded by a polynomial function of k. Our main result shows an O(k11) kernelization bound.

Understanding the phenomenon of IS success in China through the lens of the IS-Impact model

This study is conducted within the IS-Impact Research Track at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The goal of the IS-Impact Track is, “to develop the most widely employed model for benchmarking information systems in organizations for the joint benefit of both research and practice” (Gable et al, 2006). IS-Impact is defined as “a measure at a point in time, of the stream of net benefits from the IS, to date and anticipated, as perceived by all key-user-groups” (Gable Sedera and Chan, 2008). Track efforts have yielded the bicameral IS-Impact measurement model; the “impact” half includes Organizational-Impact and Individual-Impact dimensions; the “quality” half includes System-Quality and Information-Quality dimensions. The IS-Impact model, by design, is intended to be robust, simple and generalizable, to yield results that are comparable across time, stakeholders, different systems and system contexts. The model and measurement approach employ perceptual measures and an instrument that is relevant to key stakeholder groups, thereby enabling the combination or comparison of stakeholder perspectives. Such a validated and widely accepted IS-Impact measurement model has both academic and practical value. It facilitates systematic operationalization of a main dependent variable in research (IS-Impact), which can also serve as an important independent variable. For IS management practice it provides a means to benchmark and track the performance of information systems in use. The objective of this study is to develop a Mandarin version IS-Impact model, encompassing a list of China-specific IS-Impact measures, aiding in a better understanding of the IS-Impact phenomenon in a Chinese organizational context. The IS-Impact model provides a much needed theoretical guidance for this investigation of ES and ES impacts in a Chinese context. The appropriateness and soundness of employing the IS-Impact model as a theoretical foundation are evident: the model originated from a sound theory of IS Success (1992), developed through rigorous validation, and also derived in the context of Enterprise Systems. Based on the IS-Impact model, this study investigates a number of research questions (RQs). Firstly, the research investigated what essential impacts have been derived from ES by Chinese users and organizations [RQ1]. Secondly, we investigate which salient quality features of ES are perceived by Chinese users [RQ2]. Thirdly, we seek to answer whether the quality and impacts measures are sufficient to assess ES-success in general [RQ3]. Lastly, the study attempts to address whether the IS-Impact measurement model is appropriate for Chinese organizations in terms of evaluating their ES [RQ4]. An open-ended, qualitative identification survey was employed in the study. A large body of short text data was gathered from 144 Chinese users and 633 valid IS-Impact statements were generated from the data set. A generally inductive approach was applied in the qualitative data analysis. Rigorous qualitative data coding resulted in 50 first-order categories with 6 second-order categories that were grounded from the context of Chinese organization. The six second-order categories are: 1) System Quality; 2) Information Quality; 3) Individual Impacts;4) Organizational Impacts; 5) User Quality and 6) IS Support Quality. The final research finding of the study is the contextualized Mandarin version IS-Impact measurement model that includes 38 measures organized into 4 dimensions: System Quality, information Quality, Individual Impacts and Organizational Impacts. The study also proposed two conceptual models to harmonize the IS-Impact model and the two emergent constructs – User Quality and IS Support Quality by drawing on previous IS effectiveness literatures and the Work System theory proposed by Alter (1999) respectively. The study is significant as it is the first effort that empirically and comprehensively investigates IS-Impact in China. Specifically, the research contributions can be classified into theoretical contributions and practical contributions. From the theoretical perspective, through qualitative evidence, the study test and consolidate IS-Impact measurement model in terms of the quality of robustness, completeness and generalizability. The unconventional research design exhibits creativity of the study. The theoretical model does not work as a top-down a priori seeking for evidence demonstrating its credibility; rather, the study allows a competitive model to emerge from the bottom-up and open-coding analysis. Besides, the study is an example extending and localizing pre-existing theory developed in Western context when the theory is introduced to a different context. On the other hand, from the practical perspective, It is first time to introduce prominent research findings in field of IS Success to Chinese academia and practitioner. This study provides a guideline for Chinese organizations to assess their Enterprise System, and leveraging IT investment in the future. As a research effort in ITPS track, this study contributes the research team with an alternative operationalization of the dependent variable. The future research can take on the contextualized Mandarin version IS-Impact framework as a theoretical a priori model, further quantitative and empirical testing its validity.

Corporate governance mechanisms and earnings management in transitional countries – evidence from Chinese listed firms

The objective of this thesis is to investigate whether the corporate governance practices adopted by Chinese listed firms are associated with the quality of earnings information. Based on a review of agency and institutional theory, this study develops hypotheses that predict the monitoring effectiveness of the board and the audit committee. Using a combination of univariate and multivariate analyses, the association between corporate governance mechanisms and earnings management are tested from 2004 to 2008. Through analysing the empirical results, a number of findings are summarised as below. First, board independence is weakened by the introduction of government officials as independent directors on the boards. Government officials acting as independent directors, claim that they meet the definition of independent director set by the regulation. However, they have some connection with the State, which is the controlling shareholder in listed SOEs affiliated companies. Consequently, the effect of the independent director’s expertise in constraining earnings management is mitigated as demonstrated by an insignificant association between board expertise and earnings management. An alternative explanation for the inefficiency of board independence may point to the pre-selection of independent directors by the powerful CEO. It is argued that a CEO can manipulate the board composition and choose the "desirable" independent directors to monitor themselves. Second, a number of internal mechanisms, such as board size, board activities, and the separation of the roles of the CEO and chair are found to be significantly associated with discretionary accruals. This result suggests that there are advantages in having a large and active board in the Chinese setting. This can offset the disadvantages associated with large boards, such as increased bureaucracy, and hence, increase the constraining effects of a large and resourceful board. Third, factor analysis identifies two factors: CEO power and board power. CEO power is the factor which consists of CEO duality and turnover, and board power is composed of board size and board activity. The results of CEO power show that if a Chinese listed company has CEO duality and turnover at the same time, it is more likely to have a high level of earnings management. The significant and negative relationship between board power and accruals indicate that large boards with frequent meetings can be associated with low level of earnings management. Overall, the factor analysis suggests that certain governance mechanisms complement each other to become more efficient monitors of opportunistic earnings management. A combination of board characteristics can increase the negative association with earnings management. Fourth, the insignificant results between audit committees and earnings management in Chinese listed firms suggests that the Chinese regulator should strengthen the audit committee functions. This thesis calls for listed firms to disclose more information on audit committee composition and activities, which can facilitate future research on the Chinese audit committee’s monitoring role. Fifth, the interactive results between State ownership and board characteristics show that dominant State ownership has a moderating effect on board monitoring power as the State totally controls 42% of the issued shares. The high percentage of State ownership makes it difficult for the non-controlling institutional shareholders to challenge the State’s dominant status. As a result, the association between non-controlling institutional ownership and earnings management is insignificant in most situations. Lastly, firms audited by the international Big4 have lower abnormal accruals than firms audited by domestic Chinese audit firms. In addition, the inverse U-shape relationship between audit tenure and earnings quality demonstrates the changing effects of audit quality after a certain period of appointment. Furthermore, this thesis finds that listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchanges can be an alternative governance mechanism to discipline Chinese firms to follow strict Hong Kong listing requirements. Management of Hong Kong listed companies are exposed to the scrutiny of international investors and Hong Kong regulators. This in turn reduces their chances of conducting self-interested earnings manipulation. This study is designed to fill the gap in governance literature in China that is related to earnings management. Previous research on corporate governance mechanisms and earnings management in China is not conclusive. The current research builds on previous literature and provides some meaningful implications for practitioners, regulators, academic, and international investors who have investment interests in a transitional country. The findings of this study contribute to corporate governance and earnings management literature in the context of the transitional economy of China. The use of alternative measures for earnings management yields similar results compared with the accruals models and produces additional findings.

Beyond MOF constraints : multiple constraint set metamodelling for lifecycle management

The management of models over time in many domains requires different constraints to apply to some parts of the model as it evolves. Using EMF and its meta-language Ecore, the development of model management code and tools usually relies on the meta- model having some constraints, such as attribute and reference cardinalities and changeability, set in the least constrained way that any model user will require. Stronger versions of these constraints can then be enforced in code, or by attaching additional constraint expressions, and their evaluations engines, to the generated model code. We propose a mechanism that allows for variations to the constraining meta-attributes of metamodels, to allow enforcement of different constraints at different lifecycle stages of a model. We then discuss the implementation choices within EMF to support the validation of a state-specific metamodel on model graphs when changing states, as well as the enforcement of state-specific constraints when executing model change operations.

A node-based smoothed conforming point interpolation method (NS-CPIM) for elasticity problems

This paper formulates a node-based smoothed conforming point interpolation method (NS-CPIM) for solid mechanics. In the proposed NS-CPIM, the higher order conforming PIM shape functions (CPIM) have been constructed to produce a continuous and piecewise quadratic displacement field over the whole problem domain, whereby the smoothed strain field was obtained through smoothing operation over each smoothing domain associated with domain nodes. The smoothed Galerkin weak form was then developed to create the discretized system equations. Numerical studies have demonstrated the following good properties: NS-CPIM (1) can pass both standard and quadratic patch test; (2) provides an upper bound of strain energy; (3) avoid the volumetric locking; (4) provides the higher accuracy than those in the node-based smoothed schemes of the original PIMs.

Physical characteristics of small ions and their interaction with ultrafine particles in the urban environment

In recent years, the effect of ions and ultrafine particles on ambient air quality and human health has been well documented, however, knowledge about their sources, concentrations and interactions within different types of urban environments remains limited. This thesis presents the results of numerous field studies aimed at quantifying variations in ion concentration with distance from the source, as well as identifying the dynamics of the particle ionisation processes which lead to the formation of charged particles in the air. In order to select the most appropriate measurement instruments and locations for the studies, a literature review was also conducted on studies that reported ion and ultrafine particle emissions from different sources in a typical urban environment. The initial study involved laboratory experiments on the attachment of ions to aerosols, so as to gain a better understanding of the interaction between ions and particles. This study determined the efficiency of corona ions at charging and removing particles from the air, as a function of different particle number and ion concentrations. The results showed that particle number loss was directly proportional to particle charge concentration, and that higher small ion concentrations led to higher particle deposition rates in all size ranges investigated. Nanoparticles were also observed to decrease with increasing particle charge concentration, due to their higher Brownian mobility and subsequent attachment to charged particles. Given that corona discharge from high voltage powerlines is considered one of the major ion sources in urban areas, a detailed study was then conducted under three parallel overhead powerlines, with a steady wind blowing in a perpendicular direction to the lines. The results showed that large sections of the lines did not produce any corona at all, while strong positive emissions were observed from discrete components such as a particular set of spacers on one of the lines. Measurements were also conducted at eight upwind and downwind points perpendicular to the powerlines, spanning a total distance of about 160m. The maximum positive small and large ion concentrations, and DC electric field were observed at a point 20 m downwind from the lines, with median values of 4.4×103 cm-3, 1.3×103 cm-3 and 530 V m-1, respectively. It was estimated that, at this point, less than 7% of the total number of particles was charged. The electrical parameters decreased steadily with increasing downwind distance from the lines but remained significantly higher than background levels at the limit of the measurements. Moreover, vehicles are one of the most prevalent ion and particle emitting sources in urban environments, and therefore, experiments were also conducted behind a motor vehicle exhaust pipe and near busy motorways, with the aim of quantifying small ion and particle charge concentration, as well as their distribution as a function of distance from the source. The study found that approximately equal numbers of positive and negative ions were observed in the vehicle exhaust plume, as well as near motorways, of which heavy duty vehicles were believed to be the main contributor. In addition, cluster ion concentration was observed to decrease rapidly within the first 10-15 m from the road and ion-ion recombination and ion-aerosol attachment were the most likely cause of ion depletion, rather than dilution and turbulence related processes. In addition to the above-mentioned dominant ion sources, other sources also exist within urban environments where intensive human activities take place. In this part of the study, airborne concentrations of small ions, particles and net particle charge were measured at 32 different outdoor sites in and around Brisbane, Australia, which were classified into seven different groups as follows: park, woodland, city centre, residential, freeway, powerlines and power substation. Whilst the study confirmed that powerlines, power substations and freeways were the main ion sources in an urban environment, it also suggested that not all powerlines emitted ions, only those with discrete corona discharge points. In addition to the main ion sources, higher ion concentrations were also observed environments affected by vehicle traffic and human activities, such as the city centre and residential areas. A considerable number of ions were also observed in a woodland area and it is still unclear if they were emitted directly from the trees, or if they originated from some other local source. Overall, it was found that different types of environments had different types of ion sources, which could be classified as unipolar or bipolar particle sources, as well as ion sources that co-exist with particle sources. In general, fewer small ions were observed at sites with co-existing sources, however particle charge was often higher due to the effect of ion-particle attachment. In summary, this study quantified ion concentrations in typical urban environments, identified major charge sources in urban areas, and determined the spatial dispersion of ions as a function of distance from the source, as well as their controlling factors. The study also presented ion-aerosol attachment efficiencies under high ion concentration conditions, both in the laboratory and in real outdoor environments. The outcomes of these studies addressed the aims of this work and advanced understanding of the charge status of aerosols in the urban environment.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

An enriched radial point interpolation method based on weak-form and strong-form

In this article, an enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) is developed for computational mechanics. The conventional radial basis function (RBF) interpolation is novelly augmented by the suitable basis functions to reflect the natural properties of deformation. The performance of the enriched meshless RBF shape functions is first investigated using the surface fitting. The surface fitting results have proven that, compared with the conventional RBF, the enriched RBF interpolation has a much better accuracy to fit a complex surface than the conventional RBF interpolation. It has proven that the enriched RBF shape function will not only possess all advantages of the conventional RBF interpolation, but also can accurately reflect the deformation properties of problems. The system of equations for two-dimensional solids is then derived based on the enriched RBF shape function and both of the meshless strong-form and weak-form. A numerical example of a bar is presented to study the effectiveness and efficiency of e-RPIM. As an important application, the newly developed e-RPIM, which is augmented by selected trigonometric basis functions, is applied to crack problems. It has been demonstrated that the present e-RPIM is very accurate and stable for fracture mechanics problems.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Saving bitrate vs. pleasing users : where is the break-even point in mobile video quality?

This paper presents a comprehensive study to find the most efficient bitrate requirement to deliver mobile video that optimizes bandwidth, while at the same time maintains good user viewing experience. In the study, forty participants were asked to choose the lowest quality video that would still provide for a comfortable and long-term viewing experience, knowing that higher video quality is more expensive and bandwidth intensive. This paper proposes the lowest pleasing bitrates and corresponding encoding parameters for five different content types: cartoon, movie, music, news and sports. It also explores how the lowest pleasing quality is influenced by content type, image resolution, bitrate, and user gender, prior viewing experience, and preference. In addition, it analyzes the trajectory of users’ progression while selecting the lowest pleasing quality. The findings reveal that the lowest bitrate requirement for a pleasing viewing experience is much higher than that of the lowest acceptable quality. Users’ criteria for the lowest pleasing video quality are related to the video’s content features, as well as its usage purpose and the user’s personal preferences. These findings can provide video providers guidance on what quality they should offer to please mobile users.