Sequential genome-wide association studies for monitoring adverse events in the clinical evaluation of new drugs

Pharmacovigilance, the monitoring of adverse events (AEs), is an integral part in the clinical evaluation of a new drug. Until recently, attempts to relate the incidence of AEs to putative causes have been restricted to the evaluation of simple demographic and environmental factors. The advent of large-scale genotyping, however, provides an opportunity to look for associations between AEs and genetic markers, such as single nucleotides polymorphisms (SNPs). It is envisaged that a very large number of SNPs, possibly over 500 000, will be used in pharmacovigilance in an attempt to identify any genetic difference between patients who have experienced an AE and those who have not. We propose a sequential genome-wide association test for analysing AEs as they arise, allowing evidence-based decision-making at the earliest opportunity. This gives us the capability of quickly establishing whether there is a group of patients at high-risk of an AE based upon their DNA. Our method provides a valid test which takes account of linkage disequilibrium and allows for the sequential nature of the procedure. The method is more powerful than using a correction, such as idák, that assumes that the tests are independent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How a sequential design would have affected the GAIN international study of Gavestinel in stroke

While planning the GAIN International Study of gavestinel in acute stroke, a sequential triangular test was proposed but not implemented. Before the trial commenced it was agreed to evaluate the sequential design retrospectively to evaluate the differences in the resulting analyses, trial durations and sample sizes in order to assess the potential of sequential procedures for future stroke trials. This paper presents four sequential reconstructions of the GAIN study made under various scenarios. For the data as observed, the sequential design would have reduced the trial sample size by 234 patients and shortened its duration by 3 or 4 months. Had the study not achieved a recruitment rate that far exceeded expectation, the advantages of the sequential design would have been much greater. Sequential designs appear to be an attractive option for trials in stroke. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

Comparing correlations of continuous observations from two independent populations using a sequential approach

A sequential study design generally makes more efficient use of available information than a fixed sample counterpart of equal power. This feature is gradually being exploited by researchers in genetic and epidemiological investigations that utilize banked biological resources and in studies where time, cost and ethics are prominent considerations. Recent work in this area has focussed on the sequential analysis of matched case-control studies with a dichotomous trait. In this paper, we extend the sequential approach to a comparison of the associations within two independent groups of paired continuous observations. Such a comparison is particularly relevant in familial studies of phenotypic correlation using twins. We develop a sequential twin method based on the intraclass correlation and show that use of sequential methodology can lead to a substantial reduction in the number of observations without compromising the study error rates. Additionally, our approach permits straightforward allowance for other explanatory factors in the analysis. We illustrate our method in a sequential heritability study of dysplasia that allows for the effect of body mass index and compares monozygotes with pairs of singleton sisters. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of a sequential global test of improved recovery following stroke as applied to the ICTUS trial of citicoline

The International Citicoline Trial in acUte Stroke is a sequential phase III study of the use of the drug citicoline in the treatment of acute ischaemic stroke, which was initiated in 2006 in 56 treatment centres. The primary objective of the trial is to demonstrate improved recovery of patients randomized to citicoline relative to those randomized to placebo after 12 weeks of follow-up. The primary analysis will take the form of a global test combining the dichotomized results of assessments on three well-established scales: the Barthel Index, the modified Rankin scale and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. This approach was previously used in the analysis of the influential National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke trial of recombinant tissue plasminogen activator in stroke. The purpose of this paper is to describe how this trial was designed, and in particular how the simultaneous objectives of taking into account three assessment scales, performing a series of interim analyses and conducting treatment allocation and adjusting the analyses to account for prognostic factors, including more than 50 treatment centres, were addressed. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cyclamen: time, sea and speciation biogeography using a temporally calibrated phylogeny

Aim The Mediterranean region is a species-rich area with a complex geographical history. Geographical barriers have been removed and restored due to sea level changes and local climatic change. Such barriers have been proposed as a plausible mechanism driving the high levels of speciation and endemism in the Mediterranean basin. This raises the fundamental question: is allopatric isolation the mechanism by which speciation occurs? This study explores the potential driving influence of palaeo-geographical events on the speciation of Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group with most species endemic to the Mediterranean region. Cyclamen species have been shown experimentally to have few genetic barriers to hybridization. Location The Mediterranean region, including northern Africa, extending eastwards to the Black Sea coast. Methods A generic level molecular phylogeny of Myrsinaceae and Primulaceae is constructed, using Bayesian approximation, to produce a secondary age estimate for the stem lineage of Cyclamen. This estimate is used to calibrate temporally an infrageneric phylogeny of Cyclamen, built with nrDNA ITS, cpDNA trnL-F and cpDNA rps16 sequences. A biogeographical analysis of Cyclamen is performed using dispersal-vicariance analysis. Results The emergence of the Cyclamen stem lineage is estimated at 30.1-29.2 Ma, and the crown divergence at 12.9-12.2 Ma. The average age of Cyclamen species is 3.7 Myr. Every pair of sister species have mutually exclusive, allopatric distributions relative to each other. This pattern appears typical of divergence events throughout the evolutionary history of the genus. Main conclusions Geographical barriers, such as the varying levels of the Mediterranean Sea, are the most plausible explanation for speciation events throughout the phylogenetic history of Cyclamen. The genus demonstrates distributional patterns congruent with the temporally reticulate palaeogeography of the Mediterranean region.

Speciation and bursts of evolution

A longstanding debate in evolutionary biology concerns whether species diverge gradually through time or by rapid punctuational bursts at the time of speciation. The theory of punctuated equilibrium states that evolutionary change is characterised by short periods of rapid evolution followed by longer periods of stasis in which no change occurs. Despite years of work seeking evidence for punctuational change in the fossil record, the theory remains contentious. Further there is little consensus as to the size of the contribution of punctuational changes to overall evolutionary divergence. Here we review recent developments which show that punctuational evolution is common and widespread in gene sequence data.

A 25-year review of sequential methodology in clinical studies

This paper explores the theoretical developments and subsequent uptake of sequential methodology in clinical studies in the 25 years since Statistics in Medicine was launched. The review examines the contributions which have been made to all four phases into which clinical trials are traditionally classified and highlights major statistical advancements, together with assessing application of the techniques. The vast majority of work has been in the setting of phase III clinical trials and so emphasis will be placed here. Finally, comments are given indicating how the subject area may develop in the future.

Large punctuational contribution of speciation to evolutionary divergence at the molecular level

A long-standing debate in evolutionary biology concerns whether species diverge gradually through time or by punctuational episodes at the time of speciation. We found that approximately 22% of substitutional changes at the DNA level can be attributed to punctuational evolution, and the remainder accumulates from background gradual divergence. Punctuational effects occur at more than twice the rate in plants and fungi than in animals, but the proportion of total divergence attributable to punctuational change does not vary among these groups. Punctuational changes cause departures from a clock-like tempo of evolution, suggesting that they should be accounted for in deriving dates from phylogenies. Punctuational episodes of evolution may play a larger role in promoting evolutionary divergence than has previously been appreciated.

Adaptation and speciation: what can F-st tell us?

A useful way of summarizing genetic variability among different populations is through estimates of the inbreeding coefficient, F-st. Several recent studies have tried to use the distribution of estimates of F-st from individual genetic loci to detect the effects of natural selection. However, the promise of this approach has yet to be fully realized owing to the pervasive dogma that this distribution is highly dependent on demographic history. Here, I review recent theoretical results that indicate that the distribution of estimates of F-st is generally expected to be robust to the vagaries of demographic history. I suggest that analyses based on it provide a useful first step for identifying candidate genes that might be under selection, and explore the ways in which this information can be used in ecological and evolutionary studies.

Melt structure and its transformation by sequential crystallization of the two blocks within poly(L-lactide)-block-poly(epsilon-caprolactone) double crystalline diblock copolymers

Sequential crystallization of poly(L-lactide) (PLLA) followed by poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) in double crystalline PLLA-b-PCL diblock copolymers is studied by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), polarized optical microscopy (POM), wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). Three samples with different compositions are studied. The sample with the shortest PLLA block (32 wt.-% PLLA) crystallizes from a homogeneous melt, the other two (with 44 and 60% PLLA) from microphase separated structures. The microphase structure of the melt is changed as PLLA crystallizes at 122 degrees C (a temperature at which the PCL block is molten) forming spherulites regardless of composition, even with 32% PLLA. SAXS indicates that a lamellar structure with a different periodicity than that obtained in the melt forms (for melt segregated samples). Where PCL is the majority block, PCL crystallization at 42 degrees C following PLLA crystallization leads to rearrangement of the lamellar structure, as observed by SAXS, possibly due to local melting at the interphases between domains. POM results showed that PCL crystallizes within previously formed PLLA spherulites. WAXS data indicate that the PLLA unit cell is modified by crystallization of PCL, at least for the two majority PCL samples. The PCL minority sample did not crystallize at 42 degrees C (well below the PCL homopolymer crystallization temperature), pointing to the influence of pre-crystallization of PLLA on PCL crystallization, although it did crystallize at lower temperature. Crystallization kinetics were examined by DSC and WAXS, with good agreement in general. The crystallization rate of PLLA decreased with increase in PCL content in the copolymers. The crystallization rate of PCL decreased with increasing PLLA content. The Avrami exponents were in general depressed for both components in the block copolymers compared to the parent homopolymers. Polarized optical micrographs during isothermal crystalli zation of (a) homo-PLLA, (b) homo-PCL, (c) and (d) block copolymer after 30 min at 122 degrees C and after 15 min at 42 degrees C.

Sequential ring-closing metathesis and nitrone cycloaddition on glucose-derived substrates: a divergent approach to analogues of spiroannulated carbanucleosides and conformationally locked nucleosides

The carbohydrate-derived substrate 3-C-allyl-1,2: 5,6-di-O-isopropylidene-alpha-D-allofuranose was judiciously manipulated for preparing suitable synthons, which could be converted to a variety of isoxazolidino-spirocycles and -tricycles through the application of ring-closing metathesis (RCM) and intramolecular nitrone cycloaddition (INC) reactions. Cleavage of the isoxazolidine rings of some of these derivatives by tranfer hydrogenolysis followed by coupling of the generated amino functionalities with 5-amino-4,6-dichloropyrimidine furnished the corresponding chloropyrimidine nucleosides, which were elaborated to spiroannulated carbanucleosides and conformationally locked bicyclo[2.2.1] heptane/ oxa-bicyclo[3.2.1]octane nucleosides. However, use of higher temperature for the cyclization of one of the chloropyrimidines led to the dimethylaminopurine analogue as a sole product, formed via nucleophilic displacement of the chloro group by dimethylamine generated from DMF.