Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

A review of prostate-specific antigen screening prevalence and risk perceptions for first-degree relatives of men with prostate cancer

First-degree relatives of men with prostate cancer have a higher risk of being diagnosed with prostate cancer than men without a family history. The present review examines the prevalence and predictors of testing in first-degree relatives, perceptions of risk, prostate cancer knowledge and psychological consequences of screening. Medline, PsycInfo and Cinahl databases were searched for articles examining risk perceptions or screening practices of first-degree relatives of men with prostate cancer for the period of 1990 to August 2007. Eighteen studies were eligible for inclusion. First-degree relatives participated in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing more and perceived their risk of prostate cancer to be higher than men without a family history. Family history factors (e.g. being an unaffected son rather than an unaffected brother) were consistent predictors of PSA testing. Studies were characterized by sampling biases and a lack of longitudinal assessments. Prospective, longitudinal assessments with well-validated and comprehensive measures are needed to identify factors that cue the uptake of screening and from this develop an evidence base for decision support. Men with a family history may benefit from targeted communication about the risks and benefits of prostate cancer testing that responds to the implications of their heightened risk.

Resilience in chronic disease : the relationships among risk factors, protective factors, adaptive outcomes, and the level of resilience in adults with diabetes

Background: There are innumerable diabetes studies that have investigated associations between risk factors, protective factors, and health outcomes; however, these individual predictors are part of a complex network of interacting forces. Moreover, there is little awareness about resilience or its importance in chronic disease in adulthood, especially diabetes. Thus, this is the first study to: (1) extensively investigate the relationships among a host of predictors and multiple adaptive outcomes; and (2) conceptualise a resilience model among people with diabetes. Methods: This cross-sectional study was divided into two research studies. Study One was to translate two diabetes-specific instruments (Problem Areas In Diabetes, PAID; Diabetes Coping Measure, DCM) into a Chinese version and to examine their psychometric properties for use in Study Two in a convenience sample of 205 outpatients with type 2 diabetes. In Study Two, an integrated theoretical model is developed and evaluated using the structural equation modelling (SEM) technique. A self-administered questionnaire was completed by 345 people with type 2 diabetes from the endocrine outpatient departments of three hospitals in Taiwan. Results: Confirmatory factor analyses confirmed a one-factor structure of the PAID-C which was similar to the original version of the PAID. Strong content validity of the PAID-C was demonstrated. The PAID-C was associated with HbA1c and diabetes self-care behaviours, confirming satisfactory criterion validity. There was a moderate relationship between the PAID-C and the Perceived Stress Scale, supporting satisfactory convergent validity. The PAID-C also demonstrated satisfactory stability and high internal consistency. A four-factor structure and strong content validity of the DCM-C was confirmed. Criterion validity demonstrated that the DCM-C was significantly associated with HbA1c and diabetes self-care behaviours. There was a statistical correlation between the DCM-C and the Revised Ways of Coping Checklist, suggesting satisfactory convergent validity. Test-retest reliability demonstrated satisfactory stability of the DCM-C. The total scale of the DCM-C showed adequate internal consistency. Age, duration of diabetes, diabetes symptoms, diabetes distress, physical activity, coping strategies, and social support were the most consistent factors associated with adaptive outcomes in adults with diabetes. Resilience was positively associated with coping strategies, social support, health-related quality of life, and diabetes self-care behaviours. Results of the structural equation modelling revealed protective factors had a significant direct effect on adaptive outcomes; however, the construct of risk factors was not significantly related to adaptive outcomes. Moreover, resilience can moderate the relationships among protective factors and adaptive outcomes, but there were no interaction effects of risk factors and resilience on adaptive outcomes. Conclusion: This study contributes to an understanding of how risk factors and protective factors work together to influence adaptive outcomes in blood sugar control, health-related quality of life, and diabetes self-care behaviours. Additionally, resilience is a positive personality characteristic and may be importantly involved in the adjustment process among people living with type 2 diabetes.

Legal aspects of Web 2.0 activities : management of legal risk associated with use of YouTube, MySpace and Second Life

This Report, prepared for Smart Service Queensland (“SSQ”), addresses legal issues, areas of risk and other factors associated with activities conducted on three popular online platforms—YouTube, MySpace and Second Life (which are referred to throughout this Report as the “Platforms”). The Platforms exemplify online participatory spaces and behaviours, including blogging and networking, multimedia sharing, and immersive virtual environments.

Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Fashion as consumer entrepreneurship : emergent risk culture, social network markets, and the launch of Vogue in China

China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

Mapping the territory of economic risk

It is widely contended that we live in a „world risk society‟, where risk plays a central and ubiquitous role in contemporary social life. A seminal contributor to this view is Ulrich Beck, who claims that our world is governed by dangers that cannot be calculated or insured against. For Beck, risk is an inherently unrestrained phenomenon, emerging from a core and pouring out from and under national borders, unaffected by state power. Beck‟s focus on risk's ubiquity and uncontrollability at an infra-global level means that there is a necessary evenness to the expanse of risk: a "universalization of hazards‟, which possess an inbuilt tendency towards globalisation. While sociological scholarship has examined the reach and impact of globalisation processes on the role and power of states, Beck‟s argument that economic risk is without territory and resistant to domestic policy has come under less appraisal. This is contestable: what are often described as global economic processes, on closer inspection, reveal degrees of territorial embeddedness. This not only suggests that "global‟ flows could sometimes be more appropriately explained as international, regional or even local processes, formed from and responsive to state strategies – but also demonstrates what can be missed if we overinflate the global. This paper briefly introduces two key principles of Beck's theory of risk society and positions them within a review of literature debating the novelty and degree of global economic integration and its impact on states pursuing domestic economic policies. In doing so, this paper highlights the value for future research to engage with questions such as "is economic risk really without territory‟ and "does risk produce convergence‟, not so much as a means of reducing Beck's thesis to a purely empirical analysis, but rather to avoid limiting our scope in understanding the complex relationship between risk and state.

The impact of school connectedness on violent behavior, transport risk taking behavior and associated injuries in adolescence

Adolescents engage in many risk-taking behaviors that have the potential to lead to injury. The school environment has a significant role in shaping adolescent behavior, and this study aimed to provide additional information about the benefits associated with connectedness to school. Early adolescents aged 13 to 15 years (N = 509, 49% boys) were surveyed about school connectedness, engagement in transport and violence risk-taking, and injury experiences. Significant relations were found between school connectedness and reduced engagement in both transport and violence risk-taking, as well as fewer associated injuries. This study has implications for the area of risk-taking and injury prevention, as it suggests the potential for reducing adolescents' injury through school based interventions targeting school connectedness.

Open content licensing of public sector information and the risk of tortious liability for Australian Governments

There has been an increasing interest by governments worldwide in the potential benefits of open access to public sector information (PSI). However, an important question remains: can a government incur tortious liability for incorrect information released online under an open content licence? This paper argues that the release of PSI online for free under an open content licence, specifically a Creative Commons licence, is within the bounds of an acceptable level of risk to government, especially where users are informed of the limitations of the data and appropriate information management policies and principles are in place to ensure accountability for data quality and accuracy.

Age and gender comparisons of driving while sleepy : behaviours and risk perceptions

To assist road safety professionals in developing effective strategies to combat the risk associated with driving while fatigued, a survey was administered to 1000 Australian drivers. Participants reported their past behaviours in regards to driving while sleepy and their perceptions of risk associated with driving fatigued as compared to speeding and driving under the influence of alcohol. Although participants appeared to be aware of the substantial risk associated with driving while sleepy, many drivers reported that they frequently drive when sleepy. Age and gender comparisons, revealed that risk taking behaviour in regards to driving while sleepy is occurring across all age groups and in both male and female drivers. Overall young to middle age drivers and male drivers reported the highest frequency of driving while sleepy and reported the lowest perceived personal risk in regards to driving while sleepy.

Measuring risk and blameworthiness in the sentencing of criminal defendants : an exploratory study in Western Australia's Higher Courts

The focal concern perspective dominates quantitative explorations of judicial sentencing. A critical argument underlying this perspective is the role of judicial assessments of risk and blameworthiness. Prior research has not generally explored how these two concepts fit together. This study provides an empirical test of the focal concerns perspective by examining the latent structure among the measures traditionally used in sentencing research, and investigates the extent to which focal concerns can be applied in a non-US jurisdiction. Using factor analysis (as suggested by prior research), we find evidence of distinct factors of risk and blameworthiness, with separate and independent effects on sentencing outcomes. We also identify the need for further development of the focal concerns perspective, especially around the role of perceptual shorthand.

Development and evaluation of the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a new instrument - the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist (CSRAC). The instrument assesses the clinician's competency in three areas: clinical interviewing, assessment of specific suicide risk factors, and formulating a management plan. A draft checklist was constructed by integrating information from 1) literature review 2) expert clinician focus group and 3) consultation with experts. It was utilised in a simulated clinical scenario with clinician trainees and a trained actor in order to test for inter-rater agreement. Agreement was calculated and the checklist was re-drafted with the aim of maximising agreement. A second phase of simulated clinical scenarios was then conducted and inter-rater agreement was calculated for the revised checklist. In the first phase of the study, 18 of 35 items had inadequate inter-rater agreement (60%>), while in the second phase, using the revised version, only 3 of 39 items failed to achieve adequate inter-rater agreement. Further evidence of reliability and validity are required. Continued development of the CSRAC will be necessary before it can be utilised to assess the effectiveness of risk assessment training programs.

Exploring the role of gender and risk perceptions in people’s decisions to register as a bone marrow donor

Increasing the number of bone marrow (BM) donors is important to ensure sufficient diversity on BM registries to meet the needs of patients. This study used an experimental approach to test the hypothesis that providing information about the risks of BM donation to allay unsubstantiated fears would reduce male and female participants’ perceptions of risk for donation and joining the Australian BM Donor Registry (ABMDR). Males’ and females’ intentions to register on the ABMDR, their attitudes, norms, and perceived behavioural control (efficacy) in relation to registering were explored also. Participants were allocated randomly to either a risk (exposed to risk information about BM donation) or no risk(not exposed to risk information) condition. In partial support of hypotheses, exposure to risk information did reduce perceived risk for registering on the ABMDR for males only. Participants in the risk condition also demonstrated lower scores on attitude (males only) and intention compared to participants in the no risk condition. These findings highlight the complex role of risk perceptions and gender differences in understanding people’s decisions to join a BM registry.

Timing of births and endometrial cancer risk in Swedish women

While a protective long-term effect of parity on endometrial cancer risk is well established, the impact of timing of births is not fully understood. We examined the relationship between endometrial cancer risk and reproductive characteristics in a population-based cohort of 2,674,465 Swedish women, 20–72 years of age. During follow-up from 1973 through 2004, 7,386 endometrial cancers were observed. Compared to uniparous women, nulliparous women had a significantly elevated endometrial cancer risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22–1.42). Endometrial cancer risk decreased with increasing parity; compared to uniparous women, women with ≥4 births had a HR=0.66 (95% CI, 0.59–0.74); p-trend < 0.001. Among multiparous women, we observed no relationship of risk with age at first birth after adjustment for other reproductive factors. While we initially observed a decreased risk with later ages at last birth, this appeared to reflect a stronger relationship with time since last birth, with women with shorter times being at lowest risk. In models for multiparous women that included number of births, age at first and last birth, and time since last birth, age at last birth was not associated with endometrial cancer risk, while shorter time since last birth and increased parity were associated with statistically significantly reduced endometrial cancer risks. The HR was 3.95 (95%CI; 2.17–7.20; p-trend=<0.0001) for women with ≥25 years since a last birth compared to women having given birth within 4 years. Our findings support that clearance of initiated cells during delivery may be important in endometrial carcinogenesis. Keywords: endometrial carcinoma, parity, registry, reproductive factors

Quantity of documentation of maltreatment risk factors in injury-related paediatric hospitalisations

Background While child maltreatment is recognised as a global problem, solid epidemiological data on the prevalence of child maltreatment and risk factors associated with child maltreatment is lacking in Australia and internationally. There have been recent calls for action to improve the evidence-base capturing and describing child abuse, particularly those data captured within the health sector. This paper describes the quantity of documentation of maltreatment risk factors in injury-related paediatric hospitalisations in Queensland, Australia. Methods This study involved a retrospective medical record review, text extraction and coding methodology to assess the quantity of documentation of risk factors and the subsequent utility of data in hospital records for describing child maltreatment and data linkage to Child Protection Service (CPS). Results There were 433 children in the maltreatment group and 462 in the unintentional injury group for whom medical records could be reviewed. Almost 93% of the any maltreatment code sample, but only 11% of the unintentional injury sample had documentation identified indicating the presence of any of 20 risk factors. In the maltreatment group the most commonly documented risk factor was history of abuse (41%). In those with an unintentional injury, the most commonly documented risk factor was alcohol abuse of the child or family (3%). More than 93% of the maltreatment sample also linked to a child protection record. Of concern are the 16% of those children who linked to child protection who did not have documented risk factors in the medical record. Conclusion Given the importance of the medical record as a source of information about children presenting to hospital for treatment and as a potential source of evidence for legal action the lack of documentation is of concern. The details surrounding the injury admission and consideration of any maltreatment related risk factors, both identifying their presence and ruling them out are required for each and every case. This highlights the need for additional training for clinicians to understand the importance of their documentation in child injury cases.