Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Régimen jurídico de la seguridad alimentaria. De la policía administrativa a la gestión de riesgos

La policia administrativa, una de les més clàssiques formes d'intervenció pública en l'esfera jurídica dels particulars, ha vingut caracteritzant fins a temps recents l'acció administrativa en el sector dels aliments. No obstant, les limitacions que sembla presentar aquesta forma d'intervenció davant el riscos que avui emergeixen de tal sector, i en particular de l'industria alimentària, han propiciat la construcció d´un nou i, fins a cert punt, complex sistema, caracteritzat a grans trets per la intersecció entre agents públics i privats: els sistema d´anàlisis i gestió de riscos.

A gestão do risco nas empresas : comparação das práticas de gestão do risco, no setor da construção em Portugal e no Reino Unido

O risco faz parte do dia a dia das organizações e atualmente mais do que nunca deve ser gerido de uma forma consciente. As organizações como forma de transparência na divulgação da informação para os investidores e outras partes interessadas, devem expor as suas políticas de risco e a forma como pretendem alcançar os objetivos que se propõem numa ótica de continuidade e sustentabilidade. Os mercados globais com grande complexidade e forte concorrência levam a que as empresas se afirmem pela sua capacidade de organização. No setor da construção a dispersão geográfica das obras e a correspondente dispersão dos ativos de produção, os concursos públicos e a apresentação de preço assumem especial relevância em termos de análise de risco. Atualmente na matéria da gestão do risco existem várias recomendações ao nível do governo das sociedades e vários modelos que servem de guião para as empresas implementarem na sua gestão do risco. A estrutura conceptual mais atual e considerada o ‘state of the art’ na matéria de gestão do risco é a ISO 31000 Risk management – Principles and Guidelines. Esta norma pretende definir princípios que permitam a cada organização desenvolver um modelo feito à medida, ajustado aos seus processos e alinhado com a sua estratégia.

Avaliação de Riscos : Estimação Qualitativa da Probabilidade e da Gravidade em Contexto de Risco Elevado

O processo de gestão de risco consiste, no estudo estruturado de todos os aspetos inerentes ao trabalho e é composto pela análise de risco, avaliação de risco e controlo de risco. Na análise de risco, é efetuada a identificação de todos os perigos presentes e a estimação da probabilidade e da gravidade, de acordo com o método de avaliação de risco escolhido. Este estudo centra-se na primeira etapa do processo de avaliação de risco, mais especificamente na análise de risco e nos marcadores de informação necessários para se efetuar a estimação de risco na industria extrativa a céu aberto (atividade de risco elevado). Considerando que o nível de risco obtido, depende fundamentalmente da estimação da probabilidade e da gravidade, ajustada a cada situação de risco, procurou-se identificar os marcadores e compreender a sua influência nos resultados da avaliação de risco (magnitude). O plano de trabalhos de investigação foi sustentado por uma metodologia qualitativa de recolha, registo e análise dos dados. Neste estudo, a recolha de informação foi feita com recurso às seguintes técnicas de investigação: - Observação estruturada e planeada do desmonte da rocha com recurso a explosivos; - Entrevista individual de formadores e gestores de risco (amostragem de casos típicos); Na análise e discussão qualitativa dos dados das entrevistas recorreu-se às seguintes técnicas: - Triangulação de analistas e tratamento de dados cognitiva (técnicas complementares); - Aposição dos marcadores de informação, versus, três métodos de avaliação de risco validados. Os resultados obtidos apontam no sentido das hipóteses de investigação formuladas, ou seja, o tipo de risco influi da seleção da informação e, existem diferenças significativas no nível de risco obtido, quando na estimação da probabilidade e da gravidade são utilizados marcadores de informação distintos.

Gestão de riscos: análise de impacto no negócio

O objetivo deste estudo é identificar dentro de um instituto público, um cenário tecnológico para recuperação de negócio através de soluções de recuperação de baixo investimento e que permita simultaneamente a redução das despesas operacionais. Para a elaboração do presente estudo foi utilizada a metodologia de investigação científica de estudo de caso com propósito exploratório de forma a obtenção de respostas às questões propostas. Relativamente ao estado da arte adotou-se uma metodologia baseada na investigação da literatura referente ao plano de continuidade de negócio, gestão de risco, análise de risco e avaliação ou análise de impacto de negócio. Da pesquisa efetuada, através de consultadoria externa, concluiu-se que, por aplicação da metodologia Análise do impacto nos negócios, os sistemas considerados extremamente críticos e estratégicos para a organização são o sistema de correio eletrónico, sistema central de diretório, repositório de ficheiros e o principal sistema de informação de suporte ao negócio. Foi ainda possível identificar, através do estudo de caso os cenários de recuperação de desastres que melhor se ajustam à situação atual da organização em estudo, por responderem às questões da pesquisa.

REMOTE SENSING OF AEOLIAN DUST PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION

Airborne dust is of concern due to hazards in the localities affected by erosion, transport and deposition, but it is also of global concern due to uncertainties over its role in radiative forcing of climate. In order to model the environmental impact of dust, we need a better knowledge of sources and transport processes. Satellite remote sensing has been instrumental in providing this knowledge, through long time series of observations of atmospheric dust transport. Three remote sensing methodologies have been used, and are reviewed briefly in this paper. Firstly the use of observations from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), secondly the use of the Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI) from Meterosat infrared data, thirdly the use of MODIS images from the rapid response system. These data have highlighted the major global sources of dust, mist of which are associated with endoreic drainage basins in deserts, which held lakes during Quaternary humid climate phases, and identified the Bodele Depression in Tchad as the dustiest place on Earth.

Assessment of the food control system in the State of Kuwait

National food control systems are a key element in the protection of consumers from unsafe foods and from other fraudulent practices. International guidance is available and provides a framework for enhancing national systems. However, it is recognized that before reaching decisions on the necessary improvements to a national system, an analysis is required of the current state of key elements in the present system. This paper provides such an analysis for the State of Kuwait. The fragmented nature of the food control system is described. Four key elements of the Kuwaiti system are analyzed: the legal framework, the administrative structures, the enforcement activity and the provision of education and training. It is noted that the country has a dependence on imported foods and that the present national food control system is largely based on an historic approach to food sampling at the point of import and is unsustainable. The paper recommends a more coordinated approach to food safety control in Kuwait with a significant increase in the use of risk analysis methods to target enforcement.

Designing and implementing livestock value chain studies: a practical aid for Highly Pathogenic and Emerging Disease (HPED) control

Value chain studies, including production system and market chain studies, are essential to value chain analysis, which when coupled with disease risk analysis is a powerful tool to identify key constraints and opportunities for disease control based on risk management in a livestock production and marketing system. Several production system and market chain studies have been conducted to support disease control interventions in South East Asia. This practical aid summarizes experiences and lessons learned from the implementation of such value chain studies in South East Asia. Based on these experiences it prioritizes the required data for the respective purpose of a value chain study and recommends data collection as well as data analysis tools. This practical aid is intended as an adjunct to the FAO value chain approach and animal diseases risk management guidelines document. Further practical advice is provided for more effective use of value chain studies in South and South East Asia as part of animal health decision support.

Ökad förståelse bland företagsledare för nyttan av utvecklingsinsatser inom arbetsmiljöområdet

Sammanfattning Föreliggande rapport avser en delstudie inom projektet Attraktiv Konkurrenskraft (AKK) Syftet med detta arbete är att utvärdera fem metoder som kan ”väcka insikt” om nyttan av att starta utvecklingsaktiviteter för att bättre ta tillvara de mänskliga resurserna i arbetet. Baserat på detta ska en metod väljas för fördjupade studier. Drivkrafterna för att skapa bra arbetsmiljöer är många. Den primära kan sägas vara den humanitära drivkraften. Förutom de överväganden som ligger till grund för arbetsmiljölagstiftning och avtal mellan arbetsmarknadens parter finns alltså goda skäl för företagare att prioritera arbetsmiljöarbete. Den fråga som berörs i detta arbete är i vad mån det är möjligt att genom enkla insatser påverka en arbetsmiljöansvarig chefs benägenhet att gå till beslut om att genomföra insatser för att utveckla förutsättningarna för att bättre nyttja de mänskliga resurserna i organisationen. Målet är att chefen bestämmer sig för att påbörja en beslutsprocess om utvecklingsaktiviteter för att ta tillvara de mänskliga resurserna i arbetet vilket ökar förutsättningarna att rekrytera, behålla och engagera kompetent personal. Som resultat av förstudien har fem olika insiktsmetoder utvecklats och anpassats. Dessa metoder har kallats GAP-analys, Fokusgrupper Attraktivt Arbete, Visit, Riskanalys och Scenario. De tio företagen som deltog hade mellan 11 och 39 anställda, och deras verksamheter var inom områdena tillverkning, reparation och underhåll. Resultat från användning av metoderna visar att alla metoderna uppfyller kriterierna att vara enkla att förstå och snabba att genomföra. Fokusgrupper, Visit och Riskanalys ger konkret vägledning för fortsatt utvecklingsarbete. Fokusgrupper ger ett brett underlag för en fortsättning som bygger på dialog, en djupare analys på individnivå samt har psykiska och sociala dimensioner. Därmed sågs Fokusgrupper som den mest intressanta metoden att gå vidare med. Denna studie indikerar att det finns möjlighet att påverka ledare att ta beslut om aktiviteter för att utveckla den mänskliga resursen. Det finns därmed anledning att ytterligare studera ett antal företag där en och samma metod används. Valet har fallit på Fokusgrupper, även om andra metoder skulle vara tänkbara. Abstract This report concerns a sub-study of the project attractive competitiveness (AKK). The aim of the work is to evaluate five methods that are supposed to” raise awereness” about the advantages of initiating activities to better utilize human resources at work. Based on that shall one method be elected for depend studies. The driving forces for creation of good work environments are many. The primary can be said to be the humanitarian driving force. Except for the considerations that are behind the work environment legislations and agreements between social partners is therefore good reasons for entrepreneurs to give priority to work environment work. The focus of this study is to which extent it is possible by a limited input influence the liability of a manager with responsibilities for the work environment to take decisions to start a process aimed at improving the use of the human resources in the company. The goal is that the manager decides to start such a process which also is supposed to recruit, retain and engage competent staff. In the sub-study have five insight methods been developed or adapted. Those methods have been named gap-analysis, focus groups attractive work, visit, risk analysis, and scenario. The ten participating companies employed between eleven and thirty-nine persons. The companies represented different branches as production, repair work and maintenance. The results from the test of the methods shows that they all meet the criteria’s to be simple to understand and quick to carry through. Focus groups attractive work, visit, and risk analysis gives substantial guidance for further development work. Focus groups attractive work gives a broad base for a continuation built on a dialogue, a deeper analyses of individual level as well as mental and social dimensions. Of that reason chosen for deepened studies. This study indicates that there are possibilities to influence managers to decide about activities aimed at better use of human resources. There are therefore reasons to make further studies in a number of companies where the elected method is used.

Gerenciamento de risco no licenciamento ambiental de atividades potencialmente poluidoras

A presente monografia tem como objetivo identificar, avaliar e, por fim, sugerir mecanismos de controle dos Riscos inerentes aos processos de Licenciamento Ambiental realizados no âmbito do Instituto de Estadual do Ambiente – INEA

Modelagem paramétrica de curvas de crédito no mercado brasileiro

Após a crise financeira de 2008, é perceptível a intensificação de esforços globais para aperfeiçoar métodos de avaliação de risco e ajuste de exposição de capital para tornar o sistema financeiro mundial mais sólido e consistente. O objetivo deste trabalho é propor um modelo de estimação de curvas de crédito privado no Brasil, aplicando a modelagem paramétrica de Nelson & Siegel (1987) a uma amostra de preços de debêntures. Os resultados obtidos poderão ser utilizados para auxiliar reguladores e profissionais de mercado com análises de risco, apreçamento de ativos ilíquidos e percepção de expectativas.

Caracterização dos retornos e das volatilidades de ativos financeiros do mercado Brasileiro : uma abordagem baseada na volatilidade realizada

The goal of this paper is twofold. First, using five of the most actively traded stocks in the Brazilian financial market, this paper shows that the normality assumption commonly used in the risk management area to describe the distributions of returns standardized by volatilities is not compatible with volatilities estimated by EWMA or GARCH models. In sharp contrast, when the information contained in high frequency data is used to construct the realized volatilies measures, we attain the normality of the standardized returns, giving promise of improvements in Value at Risk statistics. We also describe the distributions of volatilities of the Brazilian stocks, showing that the distributions of volatilities are nearly lognormal. Second, we estimate a simple linear model to the log of realized volatilities that differs from the ones in other studies. The main difference is that we do not find evidence of long memory. The estimated model is compared with commonly used alternatives in an out-of-sample experiment.

Análise de Sustentabilidade em Projetos de Instalações de Produção de Petróleo

A proposal for a global analysis of sustainability in projects related in oil facilities is presented. By considering economic, environmental and social aspects in the early stages of design, the suggested method is more comprehensive and can be used to complement the analysis commonly applied in the petroleum industry, such as: Study of Technical and Economic Feasibility; Environmental Impact Assessment and Risk Analysis. Several authors, associations, certification bodies and oil companies suggest different approaches to study sustainability in some specific activities (or industries). In this study, a checklist of significant sustainability aspects for the oil industry (surface facilities) was assembled. In addition, a matrix was developed to assess the sustainability items relevant to these projects. In this work, the checklist interacts with the matrix to perform a "Preliminary Analysis of Sustainability of the Enterprise" (APSE). This method allows the identification of aspects that contribute significantly to global sustainability. From this analysis, which includes economic, social and environmental aspects, is built a report that is used to analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact of the sustainability aspects of the project. In this analysis are identified items that strongly influence the economic, social or environmental aspects and evaluated alternatives that can increase the overall sustainability of the project. Finally, the alternatives that can be used to indicate the most sustainable option are identified. This method was applied in a project (design) of a small offshore platform. This case study shows how the APSE can contribute to the identification of sustainability initiatives for the enterprise. The results showed that relevant aspects can contribute decisively to global sustainability. Finally, it was observed that the proposed method can contribute to increased rates of sustainability, even after application of analysis commonly used in these projects

Investigação e gerenciamento de áreas contaminadas por postos revendedores de combustíveis em Natal

Activities that have fuel subterranean storage system are considered potentially polluting fuels by CONAMA Resolution 273, due to the possibility of leak, outpouring and overflow of fuel into the ground. Being even more worrying when contaminate groundwater for public supply, as the case of Natal City. For this reason, the Public Ministry/RN, in partnership with UFRN, developed the project environmental suitability of Gas stations in Natal, of which 36% showed evidence of contamination. This paper describes the four stages of the management of contaminated areas: preliminary assessment of environmental liabilities, detailed confirmatory investigation of the contamination, risk analysis to human health (RBCA), as well as the remediation plan of degraded areas. Therefore it is presented a case study. For the area investigated has been proposed a mathematical method to estimate the volume of LNAPL by a free CAD software (ScketchUp) and compare it with the partition method for grid area. Were also performed 3D graphics designs of feathers contamination. Research results showed that passive benzene contamination in groundwater was 2791.77 μg/L, when the maximum allowed by CONAMA Resolution 420 is 5 μg/L which is the potability standards. The individual and cumulative risks were calculated from 4.4 x10-3, both above the limits of 1.0 x10-5 or by RBCA 1.0 x10-6 by the Public Ministry/RN. Corrective action points that remediation of dissolved phase benzene is expected to reach a concentration of 25 μg/L, based on carcinogenic risk for ingestion of groundwater by residents residential, diverging legislation. According to the proposed model, the volume of LNAPL using the ScketchUp was 17.59 m3, while by the grid partitioning method was 14.02 m3. Because of the low recovery, the expected removal of LNAPL is 11 years, if the multiphase extraction system installed in the enterprise is not optimized