Multi-model inference ranking and applications to physics at the Large Hadron Collider

In the measurement of the Higgs Boson decaying into two photons the parametrization of an appropriate background model is essential for fitting the Higgs signal mass peak over a continuous background. This diphoton background modeling is crucial in the statistical process of calculating exclusion limits and the significance of observations in comparison to a background-only hypothesis. It is therefore ideal to obtain knowledge of the physical shape for the background mass distribution as the use of an improper function can lead to biases in the observed limits. Using an Information-Theoretic (I-T) approach for valid inference we apply Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as a measure of the separation for a fitting model from the data. We then implement a multi-model inference ranking method to build a fit-model that closest represents the Standard Model background in 2013 diphoton data recorded by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Potential applications and extensions of this model-selection technique are discussed with reference to CMS detector performance measurements as well as in potential physics analyses at future detectors.

Reference-growth rate – a simple and handy parameter summarizing the influence of environmental conditions

Abstract Environmental changes may have an impact on life conditions of the fish, e.g. food supply for the fish. The prevailing environmental conditions apply evenly to all age groups of one stock. Small fish have high growth rates, whereas large fish grow with low rates. But, it can be shown on the basis of the von Bertalanffy-growth model that it is sufficient to know only the growth rate of one single age group to compute the growth rates of all other age groups. The growth rate of a reference fish GRF (e.g. a fish with a body mass of 1 kg) was introduced as a reference growth describing the current food condition of all age groups of the stock. As an example a time series of the reference-growth rate of the northern cod stock (NAFO, 3K) was computed for the time span 1979 to 1999. For the northern cod stock it can be observed that environmental conditions caused growth rates below the long-term mean for seven years in a row. After a prolonged hunger period the fish stock collapsed in 1992 also by the impact of fisheries - and this was probably not a coincidence. Now, with the reference-growth rate GRF a simple and handy parameter was found to summarize the influence of the environmental conditions on growth and other derived models and therefore makes it easier to compute the influence of environmental changes within stock assessment. Zusammenfassung Veränderungen der Umwelt können Auswirkungen auf die Lebensbedingungen der Fische haben, z. B. auf das Nahrungsangebot der Fische. Die vorherrschenden Umgebungsbedingungen wirken gleichmäßig auf alle Altersgruppen eines Bestandes, wobei typischer Weise kleineFische hohe Wachstumsraten haben, während die großen Fische mit niedrigen Raten wachsen. Auf der Grundlage des von Bertalanffy-Wachstumsmodells kann gezeigt werden, dass es ausreicht, nur die Wachstumsrate von einer einzigen Altersgruppe zu kennen, um die Wachstumsraten von allen anderen Altersgruppen berechnen zu können. Die Wachstumsrate eines Referenz-Fisches (z.B. eines Fisches mit einer Körpermasse von 1 kg) wurde als Referenz-Wachstum GRF eingeführt, die den aktuellen Zustand des Nahrungsangebots füralle Altersgruppen des Bestandes beschreibt. Als Beispiel wurde einer Zeitreihe der Referenz-Wachstumsraten des nördlichen Kabeljaubestandes (NAFO, 3K) für die Zeitsraum 1979 bis 1999 berechnet. Für diesen Kabeljaubestand war zu beobachten, dass Umgebungsbedingungen für sieben Jahre in Folge Wachstumsraten unter dem langjährigen Mittelwert verursachten. Nach einer längeren Hungerperiode kollabierte dieser Fischbestand im Jahr 1992 auch durch den Einfluß der Fischerei - und dies war sicher kein Zufall. Jetzt, mit der Referenz-Wachstumsrate GRF, ist ein einfacher und handlicher Parameter gefunden, der es gestattet den Einfluss der Umweltbedingungen auf die Wachstumsbedingungen und andere davon abgeleitete Modelle zusammenzufassen. Dies macht es einfach, den Einfluss von Umweltveränderungen innerhalb der Bestandsabschätzungen zu berechnen.

A catch-free stock assessment model with application to goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida

Many modern stock assessment methods provide the machinery for determining the status of a stock in relation to certain reference points and for estimating how quickly a stock can be rebuilt. However, these methods typically require catch data, which are not always available. We introduce a model-based framework for estimating reference points, stock status, and recovery times in situations where catch data and other measures of absolute abundance are unavailable. The specif ic estimator developed is essentially an age-structured production model recast in terms relative to pre-exploitation levels. A Bayesian estimation scheme is adopted to allow the incorporation of pertinent auxiliary information such as might be obtained from meta-analyses of similar stocks or anecdotal observations. The approach is applied to the population of goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida, for which there are three indices of relative abundance but no reliable catch data. The results confirm anecdotal accounts of a marked decline in abundance during the 1980s followed by a substantial increase after the harvest of goliath grouper was banned in 1990. The ban appears to have reduced fishing pressure to between 10% and 50% of the levels observed during the 1980s. Nevertheless, the predicted fishing mortality rate under the ban appears to remain substantial, perhaps owing to illegal harvest and depth-related release mortality. As a result, the base model predicts that there is less than a 40% chance that the spawning biomass will recover to a level that would produce a 50% spawning potential ratio.

Background Concepts for a Rotating Harvesting Strategy with Particular Reference to the Mediterranean Red Coral, Corallium rubrum

A simple cohort model was used as the basis for selecting the appropriate periodicity and number of separate unit areas in a rotating harvest scheme for a sedentary species, the red coral, Corallium rubrum, in the General Fisheries Management Council for the Mediterranean area. The rotation period in years, and hence the minimum number of unit areas involved, was determined on the basis of the time to maximum biomass by a simple calculation of the yield-per-recruit type, requiring a knowledge of natural mortality and growth rates. Other criteria may be more important, however, and in general for a long-lived species, will result in shorter rotation periods. These criteria may include economic factors, criteria based on the preferred size or quality of product, or criteria that take into account the cumulative risk of illegal fishing of closed areas with time, hence the growing cost of enforcement as harvestable product accumulates. For red coral, although maximum biomass is predicted to be reached after some 15-44 years, the above considerations suggest that a rotation period ofsome 9-15 years would be close to optimal, taking into account a range ofthe above considerations. This article discusses the relative merits of rotating harvest schemes in contrast to quota management for sedentary and semi-sedentary resources or geographically isolated substocks ofa mobile resource, and concludes that this approach may have considerable potential as an alternative approach to resource management.

Model based control for closed loop testing of 1-D engine simulation models

1-D engine simulation models are widely used for the analysis and verification of air-path design concepts and prediction of the resulting engine transient response. The latter often requires closed loop control over the model to ensure operation within physical limits and tracking of reference signals. For this purpose, a particular implementation of Model Predictive Control (MPC) based on a corresponding Mean Value Engine Model (MVEM) is reported here. The MVEM is linearised on-line at each operating point to allow for the formulation of quadratic programming (QP) problems, which are solved as the part of the proposed MPC algorithm. The MPC output is used to control a 1-D engine model. The closed loop performance of such a system is benchmarked against the solution of a related optimal control problem (OCP). As an example this study is focused on the transient response of a light-duty car Diesel engine. For the cases examined the proposed controller implementation gives a more systematic procedure than other ad-hoc approaches that require considerable tuning effort. © 2012 IFAC.

Analysis of micro-failure behaviors in hybrid fiber model composites

Micro-failure modes and statistical fragment lengths in the hybrid fiber and non-hybrid reference composites in the uniaxial tension were investigated. Similiar to the reference experiments, fibers in hybrid strong interface/medium interface fiber composites display a decrease in aspect ratio and an increase in interfacial shear stress (IFSS) with the increase of inter-fiber spacing. While for the fibers with weak interfaces in the hybrid strong interface/weak interface fiber composites, the aspect ratio increases and IFSS decreases with enlargement of inter-fiber spacing, which is contrary to other systems. Finite element numerical analysis was used to interpret the special phenomena.

Application of coupling model for stress relaxation of phenolphthalein polyether ketone

According to stress relaxation curves of phenolphthalein polyether ketone (PEK-C) at different temperatures and the principle of the time-temperature equivalence, the master curve of PEK-C at arbitrary reference temperature is obtained. A coupling model is applied to explain quantitatively stress relaxation behaviour of PEK-C at different temperatures. The parameters obtained from the coupling model have important physical meaning. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.

A Model for Deliberation, Action, and Introspection

This thesis investigates the problem of controlling or directing the reasoning and actions of a computer program. The basic approach explored is to view reasoning as a species of action, so that a program might apply its reasoning powers to the task of deciding what inferences to make as well as deciding what other actions to take. A design for the architecture of reasoning programs is proposed. This architecture involves self-consciousness, intentional actions, deliberate adaptations, and a form of decision-making based on dialectical argumentation. A program based on this architecture inspects itself, describes aspects of itself, and uses this self-reference and these self-descriptions in making decisions and taking actions. The program's mental life includes awareness of its own concepts, beliefs, desires, intentions, inferences, actions, and skills. All of these are represented by self-descriptions in a single sort of language, so that the program has access to all of these aspects of itself, and can reason about them in the same terms.

Toward A Model Of Children's Story Comprehension

How does a person answer questions about children's stories? For example, consider 'Janet wanted Jack's paints. She looked at the picture he was painting and said 'Those paints make your picture look funny.' The question to ask is 'Why did Janet say that?'. We propose a model which answers such questions by relating the story to background real world knowledge. The model tries to generate and answer important questions about the story as it goes along. Within this model we examine two questions about the story as it goes along. Within this model we examine two problems, how to organize this real world knowledge, and how it enters into more traditional linguistic questions such as deciding noun phrase reference.

On the Intrinsic Locality Properties of Web Reference Streams

There has been considerable work done in the study of Web reference streams: sequences of requests for Web objects. In particular, many studies have looked at the locality properties of such streams, because of the impact of locality on the design and performance of caching and prefetching systems. However, a general framework for understanding why reference streams exhibit given locality properties has not yet emerged. In this work we take a first step in this direction, based on viewing the Web as a set of reference streams that are transformed by Web components (clients, servers, and intermediaries). We propose a graph-based framework for describing this collection of streams and components. We identify three basic stream transformations that occur at nodes of the graph: aggregation, disaggregation and filtering, and we show how these transformations can be used to abstract the effects of different Web components on their associated reference streams. This view allows a structured approach to the analysis of why reference streams show given properties at different points in the Web. Applying this approach to the study of locality requires good metrics for locality. These metrics must meet three criteria: 1) they must accurately capture temporal locality; 2) they must be independent of trace artifacts such as trace length; and 3) they must not involve manual procedures or model-based assumptions. We describe two metrics meeting these criteria that each capture a different kind of temporal locality in reference streams. The popularity component of temporal locality is captured by entropy, while the correlation component is captured by interreference coefficient of variation. We argue that these metrics are more natural and more useful than previously proposed metrics for temporal locality. We use this framework to analyze a diverse set of Web reference traces. We find that this framework can shed light on how and why locality properties vary across different locations in the Web topology. For example, we find that filtering and aggregation have opposing effects on the popularity component of the temporal locality, which helps to explain why multilevel caching can be effective in the Web. Furthermore, we find that all transformations tend to diminish the correlation component of temporal locality, which has implications for the utility of different cache replacement policies at different points in the Web.

Reference groups and product line decisions: An experimental investigation of limited editions and product proliferation

Some luxury goods manufacturers offer limited editions of their products, whereas some others market multiple product lines. Researchers have found that reference groups shape consumer evaluations of these product categories. Yet little empirical research has examined how reference groups affect the product line decisions of firms. Indeed, in a field setting it is quite a challenge to isolate reference group effects from contextual effects and correlated effects. In this paper, we propose a parsimonious model that allows us to study how reference groups influence firm behavior and that lends itself to experimental analysis. With the aid of the model we investigate the behavior of consumers in a laboratory setting where we can focus on the reference group effects after controlling for the contextual and correlated effects. The experimental results show that in the presence of strong reference group effects, limited editions and multiple products can help improve firms' profits. Furthermore, the trends in the purchase decisions of our participants point to the possibility that they are capable of introspecting close to two steps of thinking at the outset of the game and then learning through reinforcement mechanisms. © 2010 INFORMS.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

Investigation of the permeation of model formulations and a commercial ibuprofen formulation in Carbosil® and human skin using ATR-FTIR and multivariate spectral analysis

The purpose of the present study was to use attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) and target factor analysis (TFA) to investigate the permeation of model drugs and formulation components through Carbosil® membrane and human skin. Diffusion studies of saturated solutions in 50:50 water/ethanol of methyl paraben (MP), ibuprofen (IBU) and caffeine (CF) were performed on Carbosil® membrane. The spectroscopic data were analysed by target factor analysis, and evolution profiles of the signal for each component (i.e. the drug, water, ethanol and membrane) over time were obtained. Results showed that the data were successfully deconvoluted as correlations between factors from the data and reference spectra of the components, were above 0.8 in all cases. Good reproducibility over three runs for the evolution profiles was obtained. From the evolution profiles it was observed that water diffused better through the Carbosil® membrane than ethanol, confirming the hydrophilic properties of the Carbosil® membrane used. IBU diffused slower compared with MP and CF. The evolution profile of CF was very similar to that of water, probably because of the high solubility of CF in water, indicating that both compounds are diffusing concurrently. The second part of the work involved a study of the evolution profiles of the components of a commercial topical gel containing 5% (w/w) of ibuprofen as it permeated through human skin. Although the system was much more complex, data were still successfully deconvoluted and the different components of the formulation identified except for benzyl alcohol which might be attributed to the low concentrations of benzyl alcohol used in topical formulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Willingness to use functional breads. Applying the Health Belief Model across four European countries

The present study focused on the role of the Health Belief Model (HBM) in predicting willingness to use functional breads, across four European countries: UK (N = 552), Italy (N = 504), Germany (N = 525) and Finland (N = 513). The behavioural evaluation components of the HBM (the perceived benefits and barriers conceptualized respectively as perceived healthiness and pleasantness) and the health motivation component were good predictors of willingness to use functional breads whereas threat perception components (perceived susceptibility and perceived anticipated severity) failed as predictors. This result was common in all four countries and across products. The role of 'cue to action' was marginal. On the whole the HBM fit was similar across the countries and products in terms of significant predictors (the perceived benefits, barriers and health motivation) with the exception of self-efficacy which was significant only in Finland. Young consumers seemed more interested in the functional bread with a health claim promoting health rather than in reducing risk of disease, whereas the opposite was true for older people. However, functional staple foods, such as bread in this European study, are still perceived as common foods rather than as a means of avoiding diseases. Consumers seek these foods for their healthiness (the perceived benefits) as they expect them to be healthier than regular foods and for the pleasantness (the perceived barriers) as they do not expect any change in the sensory characteristics due to the addition of the functional ingredients. The importance of health motivation in willingness to use products with health claims implies that there is an opening for developing better models for explaining health-promoting food choices that take into account both food and health-related factors without making a reference to disease-related outcome. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 'Europeanization' of Reference Groups

In this paper we address the question of the relative importance of within and between country differences in income and material deprivation in the European Union in the context of recent suggestions that insufficient attention has been paid to the latter. In particular, we respond to the argument that the 'state bounded' relative income approach obscures the significance of EU-wide reference groups. Making use of EU-SILC 2004, we have sought to quantify the magnitude of relevant within and between country differences and their relative impact. Overall, our analysis supports the view that the predominant frame of reference is a national one. The limited impact of European reference groups observed in our analysis does not require explanation in terms of the emergence of a European social stratification system. Furthermore, the significance of such comparisons depends not only on the expectations of those affected by European inequalities but on the degree of legitimacy afforded to ensuing demands. While an EU-wide income-threshold can provide information regarding progress of the Union towards greater social cohesion, its usage for this purpose does not require a strong sense of European identity. Given the current status of the European Social Model, it would seem unwise to attribute an undue degree of policy relevance to the relatively modest impact of EU-wide reference groups revealed in our analysis.