Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Extension And Testing Of A 2D Hydrodynamic Model For Direct Rainfall Runoff Simulation

While the simulation of flood risks originating from the overtopping of river banks is well covered within continuously evaluated programs to improve flood protection measures, flash flooding is not. Flash floods are triggered by short, local thunderstorm cells with high precipitation intensities. Small catchments have short response times and flow paths and convective thunder cells may result in potential flooding of endangered settlements. Assessing local flooding and pathways of flood requires a detailed hydraulic simulation of the surface runoff. Hydrological models usually do not incorporate surface runoff at this detailedness but rather empirical equations are applied for runoff detention. In return 2D hydrodynamic models usually do not allow distributed rainfall as input nor are any types of soil/surface interaction implemented as in hydrological models. Considering several cases of local flash flooding during the last years the issue emerged for practical reasons but as well as research topics to closing the model gap between distributed rainfall and distributed runoff formation. Therefore, a 2D hydrodynamic model, depth-averaged flow equations using the finite volume discretization, was extended to accept direct rainfall enabling to simulate the associated runoff formation. The model itself is used as numerical engine, rainfall is introduced via the modification of waterlevels at fixed time intervals. The paper not only deals with the general application of the software, but intends to test the numerical stability and reliability of simulation results. The performed tests are made using different artificial as well as measured rainfall series as input. Key parameters of the simulation such as losses, roughness or time intervals for water level manipulations are tested regarding their impact on the stability.

A (semi-)parametric functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we propose a class of ACD-type models that accommodates overdispersion, intermittent dynamics, multiple regimes, and sign and size asymmetries in financial durations. In particular, our functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration (FC-ACD) model relies on a smooth-transition autoregressive specification. The motivation lies on the fact that the latter yields a universal approximation if one lets the number of regimes grows without bound. After establishing that the sufficient conditions for strict stationarity do not exclude explosive regimes, we address model identifiability as well as the existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for the FC-ACD model with a fixed number of regimes. In addition, we also discuss how to consistently estimate using a sieve approach a semiparametric variant of the FC-ACD model that takes the number of regimes to infinity. An empirical illustration indicates that our functional coefficient model is flexible enough to model IBM price durations.

Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Spatial Assessment of Indices for Characterizing the Erosive Force of Rainfall in El Salvador Republic

Soil erosion data in El Salvador Republic are scarce and there is no rainfall erosivity map for this region. Considering that rainfall erosivity is an important guide for planning soil erosion control practices, a spatial assessment of indices for characterizing the erosive force of rainfall in El Salvador Republic was carried out. Using pluviometric records from 25 weather stations, we applied two methods: erosivity index equation and the Fournier index. In all study area, the rainiest period is from May to November. Annual values of erosivity index ranged from 7,196 to 17,856 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1) and the Fournier index ranged from 52.9 to 110.0 mm. The erosivity map showed that the study area can be broadly divided into three major erosion risk zones, and the Fournier index map was divided into four zones. Both methods revealed that the erosive force is severe in all study area and presented significant spatial correlation with each other. The erosive force in the country is concentrated mainly from May to November.

Effects of rainfall on water quality in six sequentially disposed fishponds with continuous water flow

O estudo foi efetuado durante o período de chuva (dezembro-fevereiro) em seis viveiros de produção semi-intensiva de peixes, a fim de avaliar o efeito da chuva na qualidade da água de viveiros que apresentam fluxo contínuo de água, a qual é passada de um viveiro para outro sem tratamento prévio. Foram amostrados oito pontos de coleta nas saídas dos viveiros. O viveiro P1 (próximo à nascente) apresentou as menores concentrações físicas e químicas da água e as maiores no viveiro P4 (considerado um ponto crítico recebendo material alóctone proveniente de outros viveiros e do escoamento do setor de criação de rãs). A disposição seqüencial dos viveiros estudados promoveu aumento nas concentrações dos nutrientes, clorofila-a e condutividade. As chuvas características desta época do ano aumentaram o fluxo de água nos viveiros e conseqüentemente, carreando material particulado e dissolvido de um viveiro para outro e, promovendo um aumento das variáveis limnológicas em direção do P3 ao P6. Os resultados sugerem que a chuva no período de estudo afetou positivamente a qualidade da água dos viveiros estudados, porém, como os sistemas analisados estão dispostos em distribuição seqüencial e escoamento constante da água de viveiros e tanques paralelos sem tratamento prévio, cuidados devem ser averiguados para que o aumento do fluxo de água provocado pelas chuvas não tenha efeito adverso nos viveiros estudados.

Effect of temperature, leaf wetness, and rainfall on the production of Guignardia citricarpa ascospores and on back spot severity on sweet orange

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Growth regulator losses from cotton plants due to rainfall

Reguladores de crescimento aplicados às plantas de algodoeiro (Gossypium hirsutum L.) podem ser lavados em função da ocorrência de chuvas. Chuvas que ocorrem próximas à época de aplicação podem ocasionar elevada perda e necessidade de reaplicação dos produtos visando à taxa de crescimento desejada. Avaliou-se o efeito do intervalo de tempo entre a ocorrência de chuva simulada e a aplicação de cloreto de mepiquat e cloreto de chlormequat no algodoeiro no crescimento das plantas, além de estimar a necessidade de reaplicação dos reguladores. Plantas de algodão foram cultivadas em vasos de 12 L que permaneceram em casa de vegetação. Os reguladores de crescimento foram aplicados 40 dias após a emergência, quando 50% das plantas apresentavam botão floral. A chuva foi simulada 1, 2, 4, 6 e 24 horas após a aplicação dos reguladores. Determinou-se a altura das plantas antes da aplicação dos produtos e a cada 3 dias até o 30º dia. Na colheita, foi avaliado o número de ramos e estruturas reprodutivas, com posterior determinação da massa da matéria seca. Também foi determinado o crescimento acumulado e taxa de crescimento das plantas. Os dois reguladores reduziram a massa da matéria seca das plantas, independente do intervalo para ocorrência da chuva. O crescimento excessivo das plantas foi controlado, porém, com eficiência reduzida quanto menor o intervalo para simulação de chuva. em todos os períodos avaliados houve perda de produtos, com necessidade de reaplicação. A taxa de reaplicação de cloreto de mepiquat para os diferentes intervalos de chuva foi, em média, 17% maior.

Investigação dos processos hidrossedimentológicos em parcela experimental no semi-árido potiguar

In northeastern semiarid, seasonality on precipitation temporal distribution, high intensity storm events and inadequate management of native vegetation can promote soil erosion. Vegetation removal causes soil surface exposure, reduces soil water storage capacity and can be the source degradation processes. In this context, this approach aims to analyze water and soil erosion processes on a 250 m2 undisturbed experimental plot with native vegetation, slope 2.5% by using 2006 and 2007 monitoring data. The site was instrumented to monitor rainfall, overland flow runoff and erosion by using a 5 m³ tank downstream the plot. Soil erosion monitoring was made by transported sediment and organic matter collection after each event. Field infiltration experiments were made at 16 points randomly distributed within the plot area by using a constant head infiltrometer during drought and rainy seasons, respectively. Infiltration data revealed high spatial and temporal variability. It was observed that during the beginning of the rainy period, 77% of the events showed runoff coefficient less than 0.05. As the rainy season began, soil water increase produced annual species germination. High intensity storms resulted in runoff coefficients varying between 0.33 and 0.42. Once the annual species was established, it was observed that approximately 39% of the events produced no runoff, which reflects an increase on soil water retention capacity caused by the vegetation. A gradual runoff reduction during the rainy season emphasizes the effect of vegetative density increase. Soil erosion observed data allowed to fit an empirical relationship involving soil loss and precipitation height, which was used to analyze the plot installation impact on soil erosion. Observed soil loss in 2006 and 2007 was 230 Kg/ha and 54 Kg/ha, respectively

Análise da precipitação no semi-árido potiguar

The semiarid rainfall regime is northeastern Brazil is highly variable. Climate processes associated with rainfall are complex and their effects may represent extreme situations of drought or floods, which can have adverse effects on society and the environment. The regional economy has a significant agricultural component, which is strongly influenced by weather conditions. Maximum precipitation analysis is traditionally performed using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) probabilistic approach. Results from such analysis are typically used in engineering projects involving hydraulic structures such as drainage network systems and road structures. On the other hand, precipitation data analysis may require the adoption of some kind of event identification criteria. The minimum inter-event duration (IMEE) is one of the most used criteria. This study aims to analyze the effect of the IMEE on the obtained rain event properties. For this purpose, a nine-year precipitation time series (2002- 2011) was used. This data was obtained from an automatic raingauge station, installed in an environmentally protected area, Ecological Seridó Station. The results showed that adopted IMEE values has an important effect on the number of events, duration, event height, mean rainfall rate and mean inter-event duration. Furthermore, a higher occurrence of extreme events was observed for small IMEE values. Most events showed average rainfall intensity higher than 2 mm.h-1 regardless of IMEE. The storm coefficient of advance was, in most cases, within the first quartile of the event, regardless of the IMEE value. Time series analysis using partial time series made it possible to adjust the IDF equations to local characteristics

Viscosity measurement of Newtonian liquids using the complex reflection coefficient

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The temperature coefficient of the optical path length as a function of the temperature in different optical glasses

An interferometric technique was used to determine the temperature coefficient of the optical path length (dS/dT) as a function of the temperature in several optical glasses. The temperature range was between 25degreesC and 180degreesC. The studied samples included undoped and doped oxide glasses, such as low silica calcium aluminosilicate, phosphates, borates and also chalcogenides. The oxide glasses had dS/dT between 10 X 10(-6) K-1 and 20x10(-6) K-1, while for the chalcogenides, these were around 70 x 10(-6)K(-1). The results showed that dS/dTs increased with the temperature in all samples. For samples doped with Nd the dS/dT values were found to be independent of concentration. on the other hand, for the phosphate glass doped with Cr, dS/dT increased about 5% when compared with the Nd doped one. In conclusion, the used interferometric method, which is a considerably simpler and a lower cost technique, and is a useful tool to measure dS/dT in semi-transparent glasses as a function of the composition and temperature. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inversion in the temperature coefficient of the optical path length close to the glass transition temperature in tellurite glasses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Water supplied by sprinkler irrigation system for upland rice seed production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)