Predictive models for water sources with high susceptibility for bromine-containing disinfection by-product formation: Implications for water treatment

This study examines a matrix of synthetic water samples designed to include conditions that favour brominated disinfection by-product (Br-DBP) formation, in order to provide predictive models suitable for high Br-DBP forming waters such as salinity-impacted waters. Br-DBPs are known to be more toxic than their chlorinated analogues, in general, and their formation may be favoured by routine water treatment practices such as coagulation/flocculation under specific conditions; therefore, circumstances surrounding their formation must be understood. The chosen factors were bromide concentration, mineral alkalinity, bromide to dissolved organic carbon (Br/DOC) ratio and Suwannee River natural organic matter concentration. The relationships between these parameters and DBP formation were evaluated by response surface modelling of data generated using a face-centred central composite experimental design. Predictive models for ten brominated and/or chlorinated DBPs are presented, as well as models for total trihalomethanes (tTHMs) and total dihaloacetonitriles (tDHANs), and bromide substitution factors for the THMs and DHANs classes. The relationships described revealed that increasing alkalinity and increasing Br/DOC ratio were associated with increasing bromination of THMs and DHANs, suggesting that DOC lowering treatment methods that do not also remove bromide such as enhanced coagulation may create optimal conditions for Br-DBP formation in waters in which bromide is present.

Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

The ovarian response to controlled stimulation in IVF cycles may be predictive of the age at menopause

STUDY QUESTION Can the number of oocytes retrieved in IVF cycles be predictive of the age at menopause? SUMMARY ANSWER The number of retrieved oocytes can be used as an indirect assessment of the extent of ovarian reserve to provide information on the duration of the reproductive life span in women of different ages. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Menopause is determined by the exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. Ovarian reserve is the main factor influencing ovarian response in IVF cycles. As a consequence the response to ovarian stimulation with the administration of gonadotrophins in IVF treatment may be informative about the age at menopause. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION In the present cross-sectional study, participants were 1585 infertile women from an IVF clinic and 2635 menopausal women from a more general population. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS For all infertile women, the response to ovarian stimulation with gonadotrophins was recorded. For menopausal women, relevant demographic characteristics were available for the analysis. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE A cubic function described the relationship between mean numbers of oocytes and age, with all terms being statistically significant. From the estimated residual distribution of the actual number of oocytes about this mean, a distribution of the age when there would be no oocytes retrieved following ovarian stimulation was derived. This was compared with the distribution of the age at menopause from the menopausal women, showing that menopause occurred about a year later. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The retrieved oocyte data were from infertile women, while the menopausal ages were from a more general population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS In the present study, we have shown some similarity between the distributions of the age when no retrieved oocytes can be expected after ovarian stimulation and the age at menopause. For a given age, the lower the ovarian reserve, the lower the number of retrieved oocytes would be and the earlier the age that menopause would occur.

Telomere structure, replication and length maintenance

Telomeres are the termini of linear eukaryotic chromosomes consisting of tandem repeats of DNA and proteins that bind to these repeat sequences. Telomeres ensure the complete replication of chromosome ends, impart protection to ends from nucleolytic degradation, end-to-end fusion, and guide the localization of chromosomes within the nucleus. In addition, a combination of genetic, biochemical, and molecular biological approaches have implicated key roles for telomeres in diverse cellular processes such as regulation of gene expression, cell division, cell senescence, and cancer. This review focuses on recent advances in our understanding of the organization of telomeres, telomere replication, proteins that bind telomeric DNA, and the establishment of telomere length equilibrium.

Model Predictive Static Programming: A Computationally Efficient Technique For Suboptimal Control Design

Combining the philosophies of nonlinear model predictive control and approximate dynamic programming, a new suboptimal control design technique is presented in this paper, named as model predictive static programming (MPSP), which is applicable for finite-horizon nonlinear problems with terminal constraints. This technique is computationally efficient, and hence, can possibly be implemented online. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by designing an ascent phase guidance scheme for a ballistic missile propelled by solid motors. A comparison study with a conventional gradient method shows that the MPSP solution is quite close to the optimal solution.

Importance of amino-terminus in maintenance of oligomeric structure of cytosolic serine hydroxymethyltransferase

The role of the amino and carboxyl-terminal regions of cytosolic serine hydroxymethyltransferase (SHMT) in subunit assembly and catalysis was studied using six amino-terminal (lacking the first 6, 14, 30, 49, 58, and 75 residues) and two carboxyl-terminal (lacking the last 49 and 185 residues) deletion mutants. These mutants were constructed from a full length cDNA clone using restriction enzyme/PCR-based methods and overexpressed in Escherichia coli. The overexpressed proteins, des-(A1-K6)-SHMT and des-(A1- W14)-SHMT were present in the soluble fraction and they were purified to homogeneity. The deletion clones, for des-(A1–V30)-SHMT and des-(A1–L49)-SHMT were expressed at very low levels, whereas des-(A1–R58)-SHMT, des-(A1–G75)-SHMT, des-(Q435–F483)-SHMT and des-(L299-F483)-SHMT mutant proteins were not soluble and formed inclusion bodies. Des-(A1–K6)-SHMT and des-(A1–W14)-SHMT catalyzed both the tetrahydrofolate-dependent and tetrahydrofolate-independent reactions, generating characteristic spectral intermediates with glycine and tetrahydrofolate. The two mutants had similar kinetic parameters to that of the recombinant SHMT (rSHMT). However, at 55 °C, the des-(A1–W14)-SHMT lost almost all the activity within 5 min, while at the same temperature rSHMT and des-(A1–K6)-SHMT retained 85% and 70% activity, respectively. Thermal denaturation studies showed that des-(A1–W14)-SHMT had a lower apparent melting temperature (52°C) compared to rSHMT (56°C) and des-(A1–K6)-SHMT (55 °C), suggesting that N-terminal deletion had resulted in a decrease in the thermal stability of the enzyme. Further, urea induced inactivation of the enzymes revealed that 50% inactivation occurred at a lower urea concentration (1.2 ± 0.1 M) in the case of des-(A1–W14)-SHMT compared to rSHMT (1.8 ±0.1 M) and des-(A1–K6)-SHMT (1.7 ±0.1 M). The apoenzyme of des-(A1- W14)-SHMT was present predominantly in the dimer form, whereas the apoenzymes of rSHMT and des-(A1–K6)-SHMT were a mixture of tetramers (≈75% and ≈65%, respectively) and dimers. While, rSHMT and des-(A1–K6)-SHMT apoenzymes could be reconstituted upon the addition of pyridoxal-5'-phosphate to 96% and 94% enzyme activity, respectively, des-(A1–W14)-SHMT apoenzyme could be reconstituted only upto 22%. The percentage activity regained correlated with the appearance of visible CD at 425 nm and with the amount of enzyme present in the tetrameric form upon reconstitution as monitored by gel filtration. These results demonstrate that, in addition to the cofactor, the N-terminal arm plays an important role in stabilizing the tetrameric structure of SHMT.

Importance of the amino terminus in maintenance of oligomeric structure of sheep liver cytosolic serine hydroxymethyltransferase

The Role Of The Amino And Carboxyl-Terminal Regions Of Cytosolic Serine Hydroxymethyltransferase (SHMT) In Subunit Assembly And Catalysis Was Studied Using Sis Amino-Terminal (Lacking The First 6, 14, 30, 49, 58, And 75 Residues) And Two Carboxyl-Terminal (Lacking The Last 49 And 185 Residues) Deletion Mutants. These Mutants Were Constructed From A Full Length Cdna Clone Using Restriction Enzyme/PCR-Based Methods And Overexpressed In Escherichia Coli. The Overexpressed Proteins, Des-(A1-K6) SHMT And Des-(A1-W14)-SHMT Were Present In The Soluble Fraction And They Were Purified To Homogeneity. The Deletion Clones, For Des-(A1-V30)-SHMT And Des-(A1-L49)-SHMT Were Expressed At Very Low Levels, Whereas Des-(A1-R58)-SHMT, Des-/A1-G75)-SHMT, Des-(Q435-F483)-SHMT And Des-(L299-F483)-SHMT Mutant Proteins Were Not Soluble And Formed Inclusion Bodies. Des-(A1-K6)-SHMT And Des-(A1-W14)-SHMT Catalyzed Both The Tetrahydrofolate-Dependent And Tetrahydrofolate-Independent Reactions, Generating Characteristic Spectral Intermediates With Glycine And Tetrahydrofolate. The Two Mutants Had Similar Kinetic Parameters To That Of The Recombinant SHMT (Rshmt). However, At 55 Degrees C, The Des-(A1-W14)-SHMT Lost Almost All The Activity Within 5 Min, While At The Same Temperature Rshmt And Des-(A1-K6)-SHMT Retained 85% And 70% Activity, Respectively. Thermal Denaturation Studies Showed That Des-(A1-W14)-SHMT Had A Lower Apparent Melting Temperature (52 Degrees C) Compared To Rshmt (56 Degrees C) And Des-(A1-K6)-SHMT (55 Degrees C), Suggesting That N-Terminal Deletion Had Resulted In A Decrease In The Thermal Stability Of The Enzyme. Further Urea Induced Inactivation Of The Enzymes Revealed That 50% Inactivation Occurred At A Lower Urea Concentration (1.2+/-0.1 M) In The Case Of Des-(A1-W14)-SHMT Compared To Rshmt (1.8+/-0.1 M) And Des-(A1 -K6)-SHMT (1.7+/-0.1 M). The Apoenzyme Of Des-/A1-K6)-SHMT Was Present Predominantly In The Dimer Form, Whereas The Apoenzymes Of Rshmt And Des-(A1-K6)-SHMT Were A Mixture Of Tetramers (Approximate To 75% And Approximate To 65%, Respectively) And Dimers. While, Rshmt And Des-(A1-K6)-SHMT Apoenzymes Could Be Reconstituted Upon The Addition Of Pyridoxal-5'-Phosphate To 96% And 94% Enzyme Activity, Respectively Des-(A1-W14)-SHMT Apoenzyme Could Be Reconstituted Only Upto 22%. The Percentage Activity Refined Correlated With The Appearance Of Visible CD At 425 Nm And With The Amount Of Enzyme Present In The Tetrameric Form Upon Reconstitution As Monitored By Gel Filtration. These Results Demonstrate That, In Addition To The Cofactor, The N-Terminal Arm Plays An Important Role In Stabilizing The Tetrameric Structure Of SHMT.

Minimizing overprocessing waste in business processes via predictive activity ordering

Overprocessing waste occurs in a business process when effort is spent in a way that does not add value to the customer nor to the business. Previous studies have identied a recurrent overprocessing pattern in business processes with so-called "knockout checks", meaning activities that classify a case into "accepted" or "rejected", such that if the case is accepted it proceeds forward, while if rejected, it is cancelled and all work performed in the case is considered unnecessary. Thus, when a knockout check rejects a case, the effort spent in other (previous) checks becomes overprocessing waste. Traditional process redesign methods propose to order knockout checks according to their mean effort and rejection rate. This paper presents a more fine-grained approach where knockout checks are ordered at runtime based on predictive machine learning models. Experiments on two real-life processes show that this predictive approach outperforms traditional methods while incurring minimal runtime overhead.

Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Assessing organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems : Methodological evidence from studies in nuclear power plant maintenance organizations

Failures in industrial organizations dealing with hazardous technologies can have widespread consequences for the safety of the workers and the general population. Psychology can have a major role in contributing to the safe and reliable operation of these technologies. Most current models of safety management in complex sociotechnical systems such as nuclear power plant maintenance are either non-contextual or based on an overly-rational image of an organization. Thus, they fail to grasp either the actual requirements of the work or the socially-constructed nature of the work in question. The general aim of the present study is to develop and test a methodology for contextual assessment of organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. This is done by demonstrating the findings that the application of the emerging methodology produces in the domain of maintenance of a nuclear power plant (NPP). The concepts of organizational culture and organizational core task (OCT) are operationalized and tested in the case studies. We argue that when the complexity of the work, technology and social environment is increased, the significance of the most implicit features of organizational culture as a means of coordinating the work and achieving safety and effectiveness of the activities also increases. For this reason a cultural perspective could provide additional insight into the problem of safety management. The present study aims to determine; (1) the elements of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems; (2) the demands the maintenance task sets for the organizational culture; (3) how the current organizational culture at the case organizations supports the perception and fulfilment of the demands of the maintenance work; (4) the similarities and differences between the maintenance cultures at the case organizations, and (5) the necessary assessment of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. Three in-depth case studies were carried out at the maintenance units of three Nordic NPPs. The case studies employed an iterative and multimethod research strategy. The following methods were used: interviews, CULTURE-survey, seminars, document analysis and group work. Both cultural analysis and task modelling were carried out. The results indicate that organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems can be characterised according to three qualitatively different elements: structure, internal integration and conceptions. All three of these elements of culture as well as their interrelations have to be considered in organizational assessments or important aspects of the organizational dynamics will be overlooked. On the basis of OCT modelling, the maintenance core task was defined as balancing between three critical demands: anticipating the condition of the plant and conducting preventive maintenance accordingly, reacting to unexpected technical faults and monitoring and reflecting on the effects of maintenance actions and the condition of the plant. The results indicate that safety was highly valued at all three plants, and in that sense they all had strong safety cultures. In other respects the cultural features were quite different, and thus the culturally-accepted means of maintaining high safety also differed. The handicraft nature of maintenance work was emphasised as a source of identity at the NPPs. Overall, the importance of safety was taken for granted, but the cultural norms concerning the appropriate means to guarantee it were little reflected. A sense of control, personal responsibility and organizational changes emerged as challenging issues at all the plants. The study shows that in complex sociotechnical systems it is both necessary and possible to analyse the safety and effectiveness of the organizational culture. Safety in complex sociotechnical systems cannot be understood or managed without understanding the demands of the organizational core task and managing the dynamics between the three elements of the organizational culture.

The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Status assessment of water use research in turf growth and maintenance.

The strategic objectives of Turf Australia (formerly the Turf Producers Association (TPA)) relating to water use in turf are to: • Source and collate information to support the case for adequate access to water for the Turf production and maintenance sectors and • Compile information generated into a convincing communication package that can be readily used by the industry in its advocacy programs (to government, regulators, media etc) More specifically, the turfgrass industry needs unbiased scientific evidence of the value of healthy grass in our environment. It needs to promote the use of adequate water even during drought periods to maintain quality turfgrass, which provides many benefits to the broader community including cooling the environment, saving energy and encouraging healthy lifestyles. The many environmental, social and health benefits of living turfgrass have been the subject of numerous investigations beyond the scope of this review. However further research is needed to fully understand the economic returns achievable by the judicious use of water for the maintenance of healthy turfgrass. Consumer education, backed by scientific evidence will highlight the “false economy” in allowing turfgrass to wither and die during conditions which require high level water restrictions. This report presents a review of the literature pertaining to research in the field of turf water use. The purpose of the review was to better understand the scope and nature of existing research results on turf water relations so that knowledge gaps could be identified in achieving the above strategic objectives of the TPA. Research to date has been found to be insufficient to compile a convincing communication package as described. However, identified knowledge gaps can now be addressed through targeted research. Information derived from targeted research will provide valuable material for education of the end user of turfgrass. Recommendations have been developed, based on the results of this desktop review. It was determined that future research in the field of turf irrigation needs to focus on a number of key factors which directly or indirectly affect the relationship between turfgrass and water use. These factors are: • Climate • Cultivar • Quality • Site use requirements • Establishment and management The overarching recommendation is to develop a strategic plan for turfgrass water relations research based around the five determinants of turf water use listed above. This plan should ensure research under these five categories is integrated into a holistic approach by which the consumer can be guided in species and/or cultivar choices as well as best management practices with respect to turfgrass water relations. Worsening drought cycles and limited supply of water for irrigation were the key factors driving every research project reviewed in this report. Subsidence of the most recent (or current) drought conditions in Australia should not be viewed by the turf industry as a reason to withdraw support or funding for research in this area. Drought conditions, limited domestic water availability and urban water restrictions will return in Australia albeit in 5, 10 or 20 years time and the turf industry has an opportunity to prepare for that time.

Indicator traits in bulls that are predictive of female fertility in cattle

Indicator traits in bulls that are predictive of female fertility in cattle.