TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Predicting temporary wetland plant community responses to changes in the hydroperiod

The expected changes on rainfall in the next decades may cause significant changes of the hydroperiod of temporary wetlands and, consequently, shifts on plant community distributions. Predicting plant community responses to changes in the hydroperiod is a key issue for conservation and management of temporary wetlands. We present a predictive distribution model for Arthrocnemum macrostachyum communities in the Doñana wetland (Southern Spain). Logistic regression was used to fit the model using the number of days of inundation and the mean water height as predictors. The internal validation of the model yielded good performance measures. The model was applied to a set of expected scenarios of changes in the hydroperiod to anticipate the most likely shifts in the distribution of Arthrocnemum macrostachyum communities.

Optimización de la programación(scheduling) en Talleres de Mecanizado

Los problemas de programación de tareas son muy importantes en el mundo actual. Se puede decir que se presentan en todos los fundamentos de la industria moderna, de ahí la importancia de que estos sean óptimos, de forma que se puedan ahorrar recursos que estén asociados al problema. La programación adecuada de trabajos en procesos de manufactura, constituye un importante problema que se plantea dentro de la producción en muchas empresas. El orden en que estos son procesados, no resulta indiferente, sino que determinará algún parámetro de interés, cuyos valores convendrá optimizar en la medida de lo posible. Así podrá verse afectado el coste total de ejecución de los trabajos, el tiempo necesario para concluirlos o el stock de productos en curso que será generado. Esto conduce de forma directa al problema de determinar cuál será el orden más adecuado para llevar a cabo los trabajos con vista a optimizar algunos de los anteriores parámetros u otros similares. Debido a las limitaciones de las técnicas de optimización convencionales, en la presente tesis se presenta una metaheurística basada en un Algoritmo Genético Simple (Simple Genetic Algorithm, SGA), para resolver problemas de programación de tipo flujo general (Job Shop Scheduling, JSS) y flujo regular (Flow Shop Scheduling, FSS), que están presentes en un taller con tecnología de mecanizado con el objetivo de optimizar varias medidas de desempeño en un plan de trabajo. La aportación principal de esta tesis, es un modelo matemático para medir el consumo de energía, como criterio para la optimización, de las máquinas que intervienen en la ejecución de un plan de trabajo. Se propone además, un método para mejorar el rendimiento en la búsqueda de las soluciones encontradas, por parte del Algoritmo Genético Simple, basado en el aprovechamiento del tiempo ocioso. ABSTRACT The scheduling problems are very important in today's world. It can be said to be present in all the basics of modern industry, hence the importance that these are optimal, so that they can save resources that are associated with the problem. The appropriate programming jobs in manufacturing processes is an important problem that arises in production in many companies. The order in which they are processed, it is immaterial, but shall determine a parameter of interest, whose values agree optimize the possible. This may be affected the total cost of execution of work, the time needed to complete them or the stock of work in progress that will be generated. This leads directly to the problem of determining what the most appropriate order to carry out the work in order to maximize some of the above parameters or other similar. Due to the limitations of conventional optimization techniques, in this work present a metaheuristic based on a Simple Genetic Algorithm (Simple Genetic Algorithm, SGA) to solve programming problems overall flow rate (Job Shop Scheduling, JSS) and regular flow (Flow Shop Scheduling, FSS), which are present in a workshop with machining technology in order to optimize various performance measures in a plan. The main contribution of this thesis is a mathematical model to measure the energy consumption as a criterion for the optimization of the machines involved in the implementation of a work plan. It also proposes a method to improve performance in finding the solutions, by the simple genetic algorithm, based on the use of idle time.

Adapting mode switches into the hierarchical scheduling

Mode switches are used to partition the system’s behavior into different modes to reduce the complexity of large embedded systems. Such systems operate in multiple modes in which each one corresponds to a specific application scenario; these are called Multi-Mode Systems (MMS). A different piece of software is normally executed for each mode. At any given time, the system can be in one of the predefined modes and then be switched to another as a result of a certain condition. A mode switch mechanism (or mode change protocol) is used to shift the system from one mode to another at run-time. In this thesis we have used a hierarchical scheduling framework to implement a multi-mode system called Multi-Mode Hierarchical Scheduling Framework (MMHSF). A two-level Hierarchical Scheduling Framework (HSF) has already been implemented in an open source real-time operating system, FreeRTOS, to support temporal isolation among real-time components. The main contribution of this thesis is the extension of the HSF featuring a multimode feature with an emphasis on making minimal changes in the underlying operating system (FreeRTOS) and its HSF implementation. Our implementation uses fixed-priority preemptive scheduling at both local and global scheduling levels and idling periodic servers. It also now supports different modes of the system which can be switched at run-time. Each subsystem and task exhibit different timing attributes according to mode, and upon a Mode Change Request (MCR) the task-set and timing interfaces of the entire system (including subsystems and tasks) undergo a change. A Mode Change Protocol specifies precisely how the system-mode will be changed. However, an application may not only need to change a mode but also a different mode change protocol semantic. For example, the mode change from normal to shutdown can allow all the tasks to be completed before the mode itself is changed, while changing a mode from normal to emergency may require aborting all tasks instantly. In our work, both the system mode and the mode change protocol can be changed at run-time. We have implemented three different mode change protocols to switch from one mode to another: the Suspend/resume protocol, the Abort protocol, and the Complete protocol. These protocols increase the flexibility of the system, allowing users to select the way they want to switch to a new mode. The implementation of MMHSF is tested and evaluated on an AVR-based 32 bit board EVK1100 with an AVR32UC3A0512 micro-controller. We have tested the behavior of each system mode and for each mode change protocol. We also provide the results for the performance measures of all mode change protocols in the thesis. RESUMEN Los conmutadores de modo son usados para particionar el comportamiento del sistema en diferentes modos, reduciendo así la complejidad de grandes sistemas empotrados. Estos sistemas tienen multiples modos de operación, cada uno de ellos correspondiente a distintos escenarios y para distintas aplicaciones; son llamados Sistemas Multimodales (o en inglés “Multi-Mode Systems” o MMS). Normalmente cada modo ejecuta una parte de código distinto. En un momento dado el sistema, que está en un modo concreto, puede ser cambiado a otro modo distinto como resultado de alguna condicion impuesta previamente. Los mecanismos de cambio de modo (o protocolos de cambio de modo) son usados para mover el sistema de un modo a otro durante el tiempo de ejecución. En este trabajo se ha usado un modelo de sistema operativo para implementar un sistema multimodo llamado MMHSF, siglas en inglés correspondientes a (Multi-Mode Hierarchical Scheduling Framework). Este sistema está basado en el HSF (Hierarchical Scheduling Framework), un modelo de sistema operativo con jerarquía de dos niveles, implementado en un sistema operativo en tiempo real de libre distribución llamado FreeRTOS, capaz de permitir el aislamiento temporal entre componentes. La principal contribución de este trabajo es la ampliación del HSF convirtiendolo en un sistema multimodo realizando los cambios mínimos necesarios sobre el sistema operativo FreeRTOS y la implementación ya existente del HSF. Esta implementación usa un sistema de planificación de prioridad fija para ambos niveles de jerarquía, ocupando el tiempo entre tareas con un “modo reposo”. Además el sistema es capaz de cambiar de un modo a otro en tiempo de ejecución. Cada subsistema y tarea son capaces de tener distintos atributos de tiempo (prioridad, periodo y tiempo de ejecución) en función del modo. Bajo una demanda de cambio de modo (Mode Change Request MCR) se puede variar el set de tareas en ejecución, así como los atributos de los servidores y las tareas. Un protocolo de cambio de modo espeficica precisamente cómo será cambiado el sistema de un modo a otro. Sin embargo una aplicación puede requerir no solo un cambio de modo, sino que lo haga de una forma especifica. Por ejemplo, el cambio de modo de “normal” a “apagado” puede permitir a las tareas en ejecución ser finalizadas antes de que se complete la transición, pero sin embargo el cambio de “normal” a “emergencia” puede requerir abortar todas las tareas instantaneamente. En este trabajo ambas características, tanto el modo como el protocolo de cambio, pueden ser cambiadas en tiempo de ejecución, pero deben ser previamente definidas por el desarrollador. Han sido definidos tres protocolos de cambios: el protocolo “suspender/continuar”, protocolo “abortar” y el protocolo “completar”. Estos protocolos incrementan la flexibilidad del sistema, permitiendo al usuario seleccionar de que forma quieren cambiar hacia el nuevo modo. La implementación del MMHSF ha sido testada y evaluada en una placa AVR EVK1100, con un micro-controlador AVR32UC3A0. Se ha comprobado el comportamiento de los distintos modos para los distintos protocolos, definidos previamente. Como resultado se proporcionan las medidades de rendimiento de los distintos protocolos de cambio de modo.

Exploring the economic value of personal information from firms' financial statements

Currently personal data gathering in online markets is done on a far larger scale and much cheaper and faster than ever before. Within this scenario, a number of highly relevant companies for whom personal data is the key factor of production have emerged. However, up to now, the corresponding economic analysis has been restricted primarily to a qualitative perspective linked to privacy issues. Precisely, this paper seeks to shed light on the quantitative perspective, approximating the value of personal information for those companies that base their business model on this new type of asset. In the absence of any systematic research or methodology on the subject, an ad hoc procedure is developed in this paper. It starts with the examination of the accounts of a number of key players in online markets. This inspection first aims to determine whether the value of personal information databases is somehow reflected in the firms’ books, and second to define performance measures able to capture this value. After discussing the strengths and weaknesses of possible approaches, the method that performs best under several criteria (revenue per data record) is selected. From here, an estimation of the net present value of personal data is derived, as well as a slight digression into regional differences in the economic value of personal information.

Integración de RVC-HEVC y OpenHEVC sobre la plataforma MultiDSP C6678

Este proyecto se basa en la integración de funciones optimizadas de OpenHEVC en el códec Reconfigurable Video Coding (RVC) - High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC). RVC es un framework capaz de generar automáticamente el código que implementa cualquier estándar de video mediante el uso de librerías. Estas librerías contienen la definición de bloques funcionales de los que se componen los distintos estándares de video a implementar. Sin embargo, como desventaja a la facilidad de creación de estándares utilizando este framework, las librerías que utiliza no se encuentran optimizadas. Por ello se pretende que el códec RVC-HEVC sea capaz de realizar llamadas a funciones optimizadas, que para el estudio éstas se encontrarán en la librería OpenHEVC. Por otro lado, estos codificadores de video se pueden encontrar implementados tanto en PCs como en sistemas embebidos. Los Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) son unas plataformas especializadas en el procesamiento digital, teniendo una alta velocidad en el cómputo de operaciones matemáticas. Por ello, para este proyecto se integrará RVC-HEVC con las llamadas a OpenHEVC en una plataforma DSP como la TMS320C6678. Una vez completa la integración se efectuan medidas de eficiencia para ver cómo las llamadas a funciones optimizadas mejoran la velocidad en la decodificación de imágenes. ABSTRACT. This project is based in the integration of optimized functions from OpenHEVC in the RVC-HEVC (Reconfigurable Video Coding- High Efficiency Video Coding) codec. RVC is a framework capable of generating automatically any type of video standard with the use of libraries. Inside these libraries there are the definitions of the functional blocks which make up the different standards, in which for the case of study will be the HEVC standard. Nevertheless, as a downside for the simplicity in producing standards with the RVC tool, these libraries are not optimized. Thus, one of the goals for the project will be to make the RVC-HEVC call optimized functions, in which in this case they will be inside the OpenHEVC library. On the other hand, these video encoders can be implemented both in PCs and embedded systems. The DSPs (Digital Signal Processors) are platforms specialized in digital processing, being able to compute mathematical operations in a short period of time. Consequently, for this project the integration of the RVC-HEVC with calls to the OpenHEVC library will be done in a DSP platform such as a TMS320C6678. Once completed the integration, performance measures will be carried out to evaluate the improvement in the decoding speed obtained when optimized functions are used by the RVC-HEVC.

Reproducibilidad de la batería EPESE de desempeño físico en atención primaria

Objetivo. Estimar la reproducibilidad de tres medidas objetivas de desempeño físico de personas mayores en atención primaria. Diseño. Estudio descriptivo y prospectivo con observación directa de la función física por parte de profesionales de la salud de acuerdo a un protocolo estandarizado. Emplazamiento. Tres centros de atención primaria de las provincias de Alicante y Valencia. Participantes. Muestra de 66 personas de 70 y más años, evaluadas en dos ocasiones por el mismo profesional al objeto de replicar idénticas condiciones del estudio, en un intervalo temporal de dos semanas (mediana de 14 días). Mediciones principales. Se evaluó el funcionamiento físico a través de tres pruebas objetivas de desempeño: el test de equilibrio, el de velocidad de la marcha, y la capacidad para levantarse y sentarse de una silla. Estas medidas provienen de los estudios E PESE (Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly). Se ha calculado la fiabilidad test-retest mediante el coeficiente de correlación intraclase. Resultados. Los coeficientes de correlación intraclase (CCI) fueron de 0,55 para el test de equilibrio, de 0,69 para el test de levantarse de la silla, y de O, 79 para el de velocidad de la marcha. El valor para la puntuación total de la batería EPESE fue de 0,80. Conclusiones. La reproducibilidad de estas medidas de desempeño es tan aceptable como las aportadas por la bibliografía de referencia. Estas pruebas de desempeño permiten evaluar con rigor cambios importantes en funcionamiento y salud que se producen con el tiempo.

Should energy efficiency be traded off for other product attributes? : an analysis of air-conditioner regulation in Japan

This paper examines the functioning of energy efficiency standards and labeling policies for air conditioners in Japan. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that consumers respond more to label information, which benchmarks the energy efficiency performance of each product to a pre-specified target, than to direct performance measures. This finding provides justification for the setting, and regular updating, of target standards as well as their use in calculating relative performance measures. We also find, through graphical analysis, that air conditioner manufacturers face a tradeoff between energy efficiency and product compactness when they develop their products. This tradeoff, combined with the semi-regular upward revision of minimum energy efficiency standards, has led to the growth in indoor unit size of air conditioners in recent years. In the face of this phenomenon, regulatory rules were revised so that manufacturers could adhere to less stringent standards if the indoor unit size of their product remains below a certain size. Our demand estimates provide no evidence that larger indoor unit size causes disutility to consumers. It is therefore possible that the regulatory change was not warranted from a consumer welfare point of view.

Field test plan for evaluating the cooperative breath analyzer. Technical report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Composite rib development. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Evaluation of a K. J. Law Model 8300 Ultrasonic Roughness Testing Device. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

National drug control strategy.

Some vols. have also a distinctive title.

Optimally distributed actuator placement and control for a slewing single-link flexible manipulator

A method is proposed for determining the optimal placement and controller design for multiple distributed actuators to reduce the vibrations of flexible structures. In particular, application of piezoceramic patches to a horizontally-slewing single-link flexible manipulator modeled using the assumed modes method is investigated. The optimization method uses simulated annealing and allows placement of any number of distributed actuators of unequal length, although piezoceramics of fixed equal lengths are used in the example. It also designs an linear-quadratic-regulator controller as part of the optimization procedure. The measures of performance used in the investigation to determine optimality are the total mass of the system and the time integral of the absolute value of the hub and tip position error. This study also varies the relative weightings for each of these performance measures to observe the effects on the controller designs and piezoceramic patch positions in the optimized solutions.

Using clinical indicators in a quality improvement programme targeting cardiac care

Rationale. The Brisbane Cardiac Consortium, a quality improvement collaboration of clinicians from three hospitals and five divisions of general practice, developed and reported clinical indicators as measures of the quality of care received by patients with acute coronary syndromes or congestive heart failure. Development of indicators. An expert panel derived indicators that measured gaps between evidence and practice. Data collected from hospital records and general practice heart-check forms were used to calculate process and outcome indicators for each condition. Our indicators were reliable (kappa scores 0.7-1.0) and widely accepted by clinicians as having face validity. Independent review of indicator-failed, in-hospital cases revealed that, for 27 of 28 process indicators, clinically legitimate reasons for withholding specific interventions were found in

Measurement properties of the CHAMPS physical activity questionnaire in a sample of older Australians

Background: The effective evaluation of physical activity interventions for older adults requires measurement instruments with acceptable psychometric properties that are sufficiently sensitive to detect changes in this population. Aim: To assess the measurement properties (reliability and validity) of the Community Healthy Activities Model Program for Seniors (CHAMPS) questionnaire in a sample of older Australians. Methods: CHAMPS data were collected from 167 older adults (mean age 79.1 S.D. 6.3 years) and validated with tests of physical ability and the SF-12 measures of physical and mental health. Responses from a sub-sample of 43 older adults were used to assess 1-week test-retest reliability. Results: Approximately 25% of participants needed assistance to complete the CHAMPS questionnaire. There were low but significant correlations between the CHAMPS scores and the physical performance measures (rho=0.14-0.32) and the physical health scale of the SF-12 (rho=0.12-0.24). Reliability coefficients were highest for moderate-intensity (ICC=0.81-0.88) and lowest for vigorous-intensity physical activity (ICC=0.34-0.45). Agreement between test-retest estimates of sufficient physical activity for health benefits (>= 150 min and >= 5 sessions per week) was high (percent agreement = 88% and Cohen's kappa = 0.68). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the CHAMPS questionnaire has acceptable measurement properties, and is therefore suitable for use among older Australian adults, as long as adequate assistance is provided during administration. (c) 2006 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.