Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel

In this paper, we analyze magnitude and possible selectivity of attrition in first wave respondents in the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), from wave two (2000) through wave seven (2005). After comparing attrition of first wave respondents with that of other panel surveys, we proceed to model selectivity of attrition in two steps: we first build separate waveto- wave models, and second a longitudinal all-wave model. The latter model includes wave interaction effects. The first models allow for tracing of selectivity development, i.e. whether an initial selectivity might compensate or cumulates over time, the second to assessing the effects of the covariates in a specific wave, controlling for the base attrition effect. In particular it allows for the analysis of consequences due to discrete fieldwork events. Our results support the findings in the literature: attritors are in general the younger people and the males, foreigners, the socially and politically "excluded", i.e. those who show little social and political interest and participation, those who are mostly dissatisfied with various aspects in their life, and those who live in households with high unit nonresponse, and who exhibit a worse reporting behavior. This pattern is rather cumulative than compensating over panel waves. Excessive attrition in two waves presumably caused by two discrete events in the panel is not particularly selective. Still existing variation in selective attrition is worth to be further explored.

Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Candida parapsilosis complex water isolates from a haemodialysis unit: biofilm production and in vitro evaluation of the use of clinical antifungals

Candida parapsilosis, currently divided into three distinct species, proliferates in glucose-rich solutions and has been associated with infections resulting from the use of medical devices made of plastic, an environment common in dialysis centres. The aims of this study were (i) to screen for Candida orthopsilosis and Candida metapsilosis (100 environmental isolates previously identified as C. parapsilosis), (ii) to test the ability of these isolates to form biofilm and (iii) to investigate the in vitro susceptibility of Candida spp biofilms to the antifungal agents, fluconazole (FLC) and amphotericin B (AMB). Isolates were obtained from a hydraulic circuit collected from a haemodialysis unit. Based on molecular criteria, 47 strains were re-identified as C. orthopsilosis and 53 as C. parapsilosis. Analyses using a formazan salt reduction assay and total viable count, together with microscopy studies, revealed that 72 strains were able to form biofilm that was structurally similar, but with minor differences in morphology. A microtitre-based colorimetric assay used to test the susceptibility of fungal biofilms to AMB and FLC demonstrated that the C. parapsilosis complex displayed an increased resistance to these antifungal agents. The results from these analyses may provide a basis for implementing quality controls and monitoring to ensure the microbiological purity of dialysis water, including the presence of yeast.

Appropriate therapy for fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary expert panel - EPACT II

Introduction: Many therapeutic decisions in the management of fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease (CD) have to be taken without the benefit of strong scientific evidence. For this reason, explicit appropriateness criteria for CD fistula and stenosis treatment were developed by a multidisciplinary European expert panel in 2004 with the aim of making them easily available on the Internet and thus allowing individual case scenario evaluation; these criteria were updated in 2007. Methods: Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007. Explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, were rated on a 9-point scale based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). Results: Overall, panelists rated 60 indications pertaining to fistulas. Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for simple and complex fistulas. In the event of previous failure of azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate and infliximab were considered appropriate for complex fistulas. The panel also rated 72 indications related to the management of fibrostenotic CD. The experts considered balloon dilation, if the stricture was endoscopically accessible, stricturoplasty and bowel resection to be appropriate for small bowel fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, and balloon dilation and bowel resection appropriate for fibrostenotic colonic disease. In the presence of an ileocolonic or ileorectal anastomotic stricture of <7 cm, endoscopic balloon dilation, and bowel resection were considered appropriate. Conclusion: Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease. Infliximab is a therapeutic option in patients without prior response to immunosuppressant therapy. In fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, endoscopic balloon dilation, if feasible, or surgical therapy should be considered. These expert recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). Prospective evaluation is now needed to test the validity of these appropriateness criteria in clinical practice. (C) 2009 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Appropriate therapy for fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease: results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel (EPACT II)

Introduction Many therapeutic decisions in the management of fistulizing and fibrostenotic Crohn's disease (CD) have to be taken without the benefit of strong scientific evidence. For this reason, explicit appropriateness criteria for CD fistula and stenosis treatment were developed by a multidisciplinary European expert panel in 2004 with the aim of making them easily available on the Internet and thus allowing individual case scenario evaluation; these criteria were updated in 2007. Methods Twelve international experts convened in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2007. Explicit clinical scenarios, corresponding to real daily practice, were rated on a 9-point scale based on evidence from the published literature and panelists' own expertise. Median ratings were stratified into three categories: appropriate (7-9), uncertain (4-6) and inappropriate (1-3). Results Overall, panelists rated 60 indications pertaining to fistulas. Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for simple and complex fistulas. In the event of previous failure of azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate and infliximab were considered appropriate for complex fistulas. The panel also rated 72 indications related to the management of fibrostenotic CD. The experts considered balloon dilation, if the stricture was endoscopically accessible, stricturoplasty and bowel resection to be appropriate for small bowel fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, and balloon dilation and bowel resection appropriate for fibrostenotic colonic disease. In the presence of an ileocolonic or ileorectal anastomotic stricture of <7 cm, endoscopic balloon dilation, and bowel resection were considered appropriate. Conclusion Antibiotics, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine, and conservative surgery are the mainstay of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease. Infliximab is a therapeutic option in patients without prior response to immunosuppressant therapy. In fibrostenotic Crohn's disease, endoscopic balloon dilation, if feasible, or surgical therapy should be considered. These expert recommendations are available online (www.epact.ch). Prospective evaluation is now needed to test the validity of these appropriateness criteria in clinical practice.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Evaluation of neuromotor development by means of the Harris Infant Neuromotor Test

Objective: To investigate the neuromotor development of at-risk children between three and 12 months of life, administering the Brazilian version of the Harris Infant Neuromotor Test (HINT).Method: A longitudinal study, with 78 children and 76 parents/guardians discharged from a neonatal intensive care unit in Fortaleza-CE/Brazil. Two instruments were administered: HINT and a socioeconomic questionnaire, between July/2009 to August/2010. Data from 55 preterm and 23 term children were analyzed. Results: The final mean scores ranged from 14.6 to 25.2 and from 11.2 to 24.7, for preterm and term, respectively, showing that 91% of children demonstrated good neuromotor performance; seven premature infants showed alterations which led to the referral of three children to a specialized clinic for examination and diagnostics.Conclusion: The test allowed nurses to assess infant development, identify deviations early, and plan interventions.

Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Calibration of high-resolution geophysical data with tracer test measurements to improve hydrological predictions

Relationships between porosity and hydraulic conductivity tend to be strongly scale- and site-dependent and are thus very difficult to establish. As a result, hydraulic conductivity distributions inferred from geophysically derived porosity models must be calibrated using some measurement of aquifer response. This type of calibration is potentially very valuable as it may allow for transport predictions within the considered hydrological unit at locations where only geophysical measurements are available, thus reducing the number of well tests required and thereby the costs of management and remediation. Here, we explore this concept through a series of numerical experiments. Considering the case of porosity characterization in saturated heterogeneous aquifers using crosshole ground-penetrating radar and borehole porosity log data, we use tracer test measurements to calibrate a relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity that allows the best prediction of the observed hydrological behavior. To examine the validity and effectiveness of the obtained relationship, we examine its performance at alternate locations not used in the calibration procedure. Our results indicate that this methodology allows us to obtain remarkably reliable hydrological predictions throughout the considered hydrological unit based on the geophysical data only. This was also found to be the case when significant uncertainty was considered in the underlying relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity.

Biases of the ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators of the intergenerational earnings elasticity : revisited in the light of panel data

The OLS estimator of the intergenerational earnings correlation is biased towards zero, while the instrumental variables estimator is biased upwards. The first of these results arises because of measurement error, while the latter rests on the presumption that the education of the parent family is an invalid instrument. We propose a panel data framework for quantifying the asymptotic biases of these estimators, as well as a mis-specification test for the IV estimator. [Author]

Rice grown in nutrient solution with doses of manganese and silicon

Although silicon is not recognized as a nutrient, it may benefit rice plants and may alleviate the Mn toxicity in some plant species. The dry matter yield (root, leaf, sheaths and leaf blade) and plant architecture (angle of leaf insertion and leaf arc) were evaluated in rice plants grown in nutrient solutions with three Mn doses, with and without Si addition. The treatments were arranged in a 2 x 3 factorial [with and without (2 mmol L-1) Si; three Mn doses (0.5; 2.5 and 10 µmol L-1)], in a randomized block design with 4 replications. The experimental unit was a 4 L plastic vase with 4 rice (Metica-1 cultivar) plants. Thirty nine days after keeping the seedlings in the nutrient solution the plant dry matter yield was determined; the angle of leaf insertion in the sheath and the leaf arc were measured; and the Si and Mn concentrations in roots, sheaths and leaves were determined. The analysis of variance (F test at 5 and 1 % levels) and the regression analysis (for testing plant response to Mn with the Si treatments) were performed. The Si added to the nutrient solution increased the dry matter yield of roots, sheaths and leaf blades and also decreased the angle of leaf blade insertion into the sheath and the foliar arc in the rice plant. Additionally, it ameliorated the rice plant architecture which allowed an increase in the dry matter yield. Similarly, the addition of Mn to the solution improved the architecture of the rice plants with gain in dry matter yield. As Si was added to the nutrient solution, the concentration of Mn in leaves decreased and in roots increased thus alleviating the toxic effects of Mn on the plants.

Estimation of soil moisture in the root-zone from remote sensing data

Field-based soil moisture measurements are cumbersome. Thus, remote sensing techniques are needed because allows field and landscape-scale mapping of soil moisture depth-averaged through the root zone of existing vegetation. The objective of the study was to evaluate the accuracy of an empirical relationship to calculate soil moisture from remote sensing data of irrigated soils of the Apodi Plateau, in the Brazilian semiarid region. The empirical relationship had previously been tested for irrigated soils in Mexico, Egypt, and Pakistan, with promising results. In this study, the relationship was evaluated from experimental data collected from a cotton field. The experiment was carried out in an area of 5 ha with irrigated cotton. The energy balance and evaporative fraction (Λ) were measured by the Bowen ratio method. Soil moisture (θ) data were collected using a PR2 - Profile Probe (Delta-T Devices Ltd). The empirical relationship was tested using experimentally collected Λ and θ values and was applied using the Λ values obtained from the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and three TM - Landsat 5 images. There was a close correlation between measured and estimated θ values (p<0.05, R² = 0.84) and there were no significant differences according to the Student t-test (p<0.01). The statistical analyses showed that the empirical relationship can be applied to estimate the root-zone soil moisture of irrigated soils, i.e. when the evaporative fraction is greater than 0.45.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Radiological detection of dissolved cocaine

Introduction: Smuggling dissolved drugs, especially cocaine, in bottled liquids is a problem at borders nowadays. Common fluoroscopy of packages at the border cannot detect contaminated liquids. To find a dissolved drug, an immunological test using a drug-test panel has to be performed. This means that a control sample of the cargo must be opened to perform the test. As it is not possible to open all boxes, and as smugglers hide the drugcontaining boxes between regularly filled boxes, contaminated cargos can be overlooked. Investigators sometimes cannot perform the drug-test panel because they try not to arouse the smugglers' suspicion in order to follow the cargo and to find the recipient. Aims: The objective of our studies was to define non-invasive examination techniques to investigate cargos that are suspicions to contain dissolved cocaine without leaving traces on the samples. We examined vessels containing cocaine by radiological cross-section techniques such as multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). Methods: In a previous study, we examined bottles of wine containing dissolved cocaine in different quantities using an MDCT unit. To distinguish between bottles containing red wine and those where cocaine was solved in the wine, cross sectional 2D-images have been reconstructed and the absorption of X-rays was quantified by measuring the mean density of the liquid inside the bottles. In our new study, we investigated phantoms containing cocaine dissolved in water with or without ethanol as well as cocaine dissolved in different sorts of commercially available wine by the use of a clinical magnetic resonance unit (3 tesla). To find out if dissolved cocaine could be detected, magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H MRS) was performed. Results: By using a MDCT-unit and measuring the mean attenuation of X-rays, it is possible to distinguish weather substances are dissolved in a liquid or not, if a comparative liquid without any solutions is available. The increase of the mean density indicates the presence of dissolved substances without the possibility to identify the substance. By using magnetic resonance spectroscopy, dissolved cocaine can be clearly identified because it produces distinctive resonances in the spectrum. In contrast to MDCT, this technique shows a high sensitivity (detection of 1 mM cocaine in wine). Conclusions: Cross-sectional imaging techniques such as MDCT and MRS appropriated to examine cargos that are suspicious to contain dissolved cocaine. They allow to perform non-invasive investigations without leaving any trace on the cargo. While an MDCT scan can detect dissolved substances in liquids, identification of cocaine can be obtained by MR-spectroscopy. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Centre d'Imagerie BioMédicale (CIBM) of the University of Lausanne (UNIL), the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL), the University of Geneva (UniGe), the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV), the Hôpitaux Universitaire de Genève (HUG) and the Leenaards and the Jeantet Foundations.

Public-domain software for root image analysis

In the search for high efficiency in root studies, computational systems have been developed to analyze digital images. ImageJ and Safira are public-domain systems that may be used for image analysis of washed roots. However, differences in root properties measured using ImageJ and Safira are supposed. This study compared values of root length and surface area obtained with public-domain systems with values obtained by a reference method. Root samples were collected in a banana plantation in an area of a shallower Typic Carbonatic Haplic Cambisol (CXk), and an area of a deeper Typic Haplic Ta Eutrophic Cambisol (CXve), at six depths in five replications. Root images were digitized and the systems ImageJ and Safira used to determine root length and surface area. The line-intersect method modified by Tennant was used as reference; values of root length and surface area measured with the different systems were analyzed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and compared by the confidence interval and t-test. Both systems ImageJ and Safira had positive correlation coefficients with the reference method for root length and surface area data in CXk and CXve. The correlation coefficient ranged from 0.54 to 0.80, with lowest value observed for ImageJ in the measurement of surface area of roots sampled in CXve. The IC (95 %) revealed that root length measurements with Safira did not differ from that with the reference method in CXk (-77.3 to 244.0 mm). Regarding surface area measurements, Safira did not differ from the reference method for samples collected in CXk (-530.6 to 565.8 mm²) as well as in CXve (-4231 to 612.1 mm²). However, measurements with ImageJ were different from those obtained by the reference method, underestimating length and surface area in samples collected in CXk and CXve. Both ImageJ and Safira allow an identification of increases or decreases in root length and surface area. However, Safira results for root length and surface area are closer to the results obtained with the reference method.