934 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) of zero-valent iron (Fe0) are increasingly being used to remediate contaminated ground water. Corrosion of Fe0 filings and tbe formation of precipitates can occur when the PRB material comes in contact with ground water and may reduce the lifespan and effectiveness of the barrier. At present, there are no routine procedures for preparing and analyzing the mineral precipitates from Fe0 PRB material. These procedures are needed because mineralogical composition of corrosion products used to interpret the barrier processes can change with iron oxidation and sample preparation. The objectives of this study were (i) to investigate a method of preparing Fe0 reactive barrier material for mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD), and (ii) to identify Fe mineral phases and rates of transformations induced by different mineralogical preparation techniques. Materials from an in situ Fe0 PRB were collected by undisturbed coring and processed for XRD analysis after different times since sampling for three size fractions and by various drying treatments. We found that whole-sample preparation for analysis was necessary because mineral precipitates occurred within the PRB material in different size fractions of the samples. Green rusts quickly disappeared from acetone-dried samples and were not present in air-dried and oven-dried samples Maghemite/magnetite content increased over time and in oven-dried samples, especially after heating to 105°C. We conclude that care must be taken during sample preparation of Fe0 PRB material, especially for detection of green rusts, to ensure accurate identification of minerals present within the barrier system.

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This booklet covers the itinerary and some of the findings of a day-long visit to Belfast on the 7th November 2014 by Peter Oborn; Vice President International of the Royal Institute of British Architects. His visit was in response to a motion submitted to the RIBA council (19.05.2014) calling for the suspension of the Israeli Association of United Architects from the International Union of Architects. Despite members of council speaking against the motion it was carried; 23 members voting for, 16 against, and 10 abstentions. Subsequently the RIBA came under considerable pressure to consider its position in such critical contexts. This visit to Belfast was part of a wider fact-finding mission and evidence taking. At its heart was the question: 'Is it appropriate for the institute (RIBA) to engage with communities facing civil conflict and/or natural disaster and, if so, how it can do so most effectively.' The visit was facilitated by Ruth Morrow, Professor of Architecture, School of Planning, Architecture & Civil Engineering, Queen's University Belfast, and Martin Hare, Royal Society of Ulster Architects (RSUA) president.

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The aims of this study were to identify the themes Social Workers regard as important in supporting decisions to remove children from, or return them to, the care of their parents. To further elicit underlying hypotheses that are discernible in interpretation of evidence. A case study, comprising a two-part vignette with a questionnaire, recorded demographic information, child welfare attitudes and risk assessments, using scales derived from standardised instruments, was completed by 202 Social Workers in Northern Ireland. There were two manipulated variables, mother’s attitude to removal and child’s attitude to reunification2 years later. In this paper we use data derived from respondents’ qualitative comments explaining their reasoning for in and out of home care decisions. Some 60.9% of respondent’s chose the parental care option at part one, with 94% choosing to have the child remain in foster care at part two. The manipulated variables were found to have no significant statistical effect. However, three underlying hypotheses were found to underpin decisions; (a)child rescue, (b) kinship defence and (c) a hedged position on calculation of risk subject to further assessment. Reasoning strategies utilised by social workers to support their decision making suggest that they tend to selectively interpret information either positively or negatively to support pre-existing underlying hypotheses. This finding is in keeping with the literature on ‘confirmation bias.’ The research further draws attention to the need to incorporate open questions in quantitative studies, to help guard against surface reading of data, which often does not ‘speak for itself.’

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We address the out-of-equilibrium thermodynamics of an isolated quantum system consisting of a cavity optomechanical device. We explore the dynamical response of the system when driven out of equilibrium by a sudden quench of the coupling parameter and compute analytically the full distribution of the work generated by the process. We consider linear and quadratic optomechanical coupling, where the cavity field is parametrically coupled to either the position or the square of the position of a mechanical oscillator, respectively. In the former case we find that the average work generated by the quench is zero, whilst the latter leads to a non-zero average value. Through fluctuations theorems we access the most relevant thermodynamical figures of merit, such as the free energy difference and the amount of irreversible work generated. We thus provide a full charac- terization of the out-of-equilibrium thermodynamics in the quantum regime for nonlinearly coupled bosonic modes. Our study is the first due step towards the construction and full quantum analysis of an optomechanical machine working fully out of equilibrium.

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We address the problem of heat transport in a chain of coupled quantum harmonic oscillators, exposed to the influences of local environments of various nature, stressing the effects that the specific nature of the environment has on the phenomenology of the transport process. We study in detail the behavior of thermodynamically relevant quantities such as heat currents and mean energies of the oscillators, establishing rigorous analytical conditions for the existence of a steady state, whose features we analyze carefully. In particular, we assess the conditions that should be faced to recover trends reminiscent of the classical Fourier law of heat conduction and highlight how such a possibility depends on the environment linked to our system.

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By virtue of being a localized treatment modality, radiotherapy is unable to deliver a tumoricidal radiation dose to tissues outside of the irradiated field. Nevertheless, ionizing radiation may result in radiation damage mediated by a bystander like effect away from the irradiated field, but this response is likely to be modest when radiotherapy is the sole treatment modality. Over the last decade there has been a re-emergence of immune modulating therapies as anti-cancer treatment modalities. Clinical trials on vaccines have on the whole been largely disappointing, but greater response rates have been observed from the immune checkpoint modulators. A clinical benefit of using such agents has been shown in disease sites such as melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer. There is growing pre-clinical data and a number of case reports which suggest the presence of abscopal effects when radiotherapy is co-administered with immune checkpoint inhibitors, suggesting that this combination may lead to an enhanced tumour response outside of the primary treatment field. In this review, the mechanisms of such an enhanced out-of-field tumour response, the potential clinical utilities, the optimal radiotherapy delivery and considerations for clinical follow-up following treatment are discussed.

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This paper summarises the work done on the distribution and reactivity of organic contaminants (simazine, atrazine, lindane, fluoranthene, pyrene, PCB 77, PCB 118) in the Humber Estuary and associated major rivers, as part of the LOIS programme. The preliminary flux calculations show that the most important contributors of selected organic contaminants were the rivers Trent (45% of simazine, 20% of atrazine), Aire (30% of simazine and 33% of atrazine), Don (36 and 37% of fluoranthene and pyrene) and Ouse (18% of fluoranthene and pyrene). For lindane and PCBs, the Aire and Ouse were the key sources. The water flow in all the rivers shows strong seasonal variations, as do the contaminant concentrations. As a result, the mean daily fluxes of these contaminants displayed a strong seasonality. Annual mean concentrations of simazine and atrazine decreased by more than 50% over the period 1994-1995 in most of the rivers, probably as a result of their restricted use in the UK. Mass balance calculations show that the Humber is a sink for atrazine, lindane, PCB 77 and PCB 118, although the degree of removal is generally much lower for atrazine and lindane than for PCB 77 and PCB 118. Mass balance results also show that the Humber can either be a source of fluoranthene and pyrene (in the suspended particulate phase), or a sink (in the dissolved phase), although overall the Humber acts as sink. The budget exercise represents an attempt to quantify the input and output of selected organic contaminants from catchment to ocean. However, due to limited data and assumptions involved in calculations, the estimates should be considered as an order of magnitude approximation. Further improvement both in resolution and accuracy is required.

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Background A 2014 national audit used the English General Practice Patient Survey (GPPS) to compare service users’ experience of out-of-hours general practitioner (GP) services, yet there is no published evidence on the validity of these GPPS items. Objectives Establish the construct and concurrent validity of GPPS items evaluating service users’ experience of GP out-of-hours care. Methods Cross-sectional postal survey of service users (n=1396) of six English out-of-hours providers. Participants reported on four GPPS items evaluating out-of-hours care (three items modified following cognitive interviews with service users), and 14 evaluative items from the Out-of-hours Patient Questionnaire (OPQ). Construct validity was assessed through correlations between any reliable (Cochran's α>0.7) scales, as suggested by a principal component analysis of the modified GPPS items, with the ‘entry access’ (four items) and ‘consultation satisfaction’ (10 items) OPQ subscales. Concurrent validity was determined by investigating whether each modified GPPS item was associated with thematically related items from the OPQ using linear regressions. Results The modified GPPS item-set formed a single scale (α=0.77), which summarised the two-component structure of the OPQ moderately well; explaining 39.7% of variation in the ‘entry access’ scores (r=0.63) and 44.0% of variation in the ‘consultation satisfaction’ scores (r=0.66), demonstrating acceptable construct validity. Concurrent validity was verified as each modified GPPS item was highly associated with a distinct set of related items from the OPQ. Conclusions Minor modifications are required for the English GPPS items evaluating out-of-hours care to improve comprehension by service users. A modified question set was demonstrated to comprise a valid measure of service users’ overall satisfaction with out-of-hours care received. This demonstrates the potential for the use of as few as four items in benchmarking providers and assisting services in identifying, implementing and assessing quality improvement initiatives.

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Background English National Quality Requirements mandate out-of-hours primary care services to routinely audit patient experience, but do not state how it should be done.

Objectives We explored how providers collect patient feedback data and use it to inform service provision. We also explored staff views on the utility of out-of-hours questions from the English General Practice Patient Survey (GPPS).

Methods A qualitative study was conducted with 31 staff (comprising service managers, general practitioners and administrators) from 11 out-of-hours primary care providers in England, UK. Staff responsible for patient experience audits within their service were sampled and data collected via face-to-face semistructured interviews.

Results Although most providers regularly audited their patients’ experiences by using patient surveys, many participants expressed a strong preference for additional qualitative feedback. Staff provided examples of small changes to service delivery resulting from patient feedback, but service-wide changes were not instigated. Perceptions that patients lacked sufficient understanding of the urgent care system in which out-of-hours primary care services operate were common and a barrier to using feedback to enable change. Participants recognised the value of using patient experience feedback to benchmark services, but perceived weaknesses in the out-of-hours items from the GPPS led them to question the validity of using these data for benchmarking in its current form.

Conclusions The lack of clarity around how out-of-hours providers should audit patient experience hinders the utility of the National Quality Requirements. Although surveys were common, patient feedback data had only a limited role in service change. Data derived from the GPPS may be used to benchmark service providers, but refinement of the out-of-hours items is needed.

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The properties of the interface between solid and melt are key to solidification and melting, as the interfacial free energy introduces a kinetic barrier to phase transitions. This makes solidification happen below the melting temperature, in out-of-equilibrium conditions at which the interfacial free energy is ill defined. Here we draw a connection between the atomistic description of a diffuse solid-liquid interface and its thermodynamic characterization. This framework resolves the ambiguities in defining the solid-liquid interfacial free energy above and below the melting temperature. In addition, we introduce a simulation protocol that allows solid-liquid interfaces to be reversibly created and destroyed at conditions relevant for experiments. We directly evaluate the value of the interfacial free energy away from the melting point for a simple but realistic atomic potential, and find a more complex temperature dependence than the constant positive slope that has been generally assumed based on phenomenological considerations and that has been used to interpret experiments. This methodology could be easily extended to the study of other phase transitions, from condensation to precipitation. Our analysis can help reconcile the textbook picture of classical nucleation theory with the growing body of atomistic studies and mesoscale models of solidification.