Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Atmospheric point discharge current measurements using a temperature-compensated logarithmic current amplifier

Measurements of atmospheric corona currents have been made for over 100 years to indicate the atmospheric electric field. Corona currents vary substantially, in polarity and in magnitude. The instrument described here uses a sharp point sensor connected to a temperature compensated bi-polar logarithmic current amplifier. Calibrations over a range of currents from ±10 fA to ±3 μA and across ±20 ◦C show it has an excellent logarithmic response over six orders of magnitude from 1 pA to 1 μA in both polarities for the range of atmospheric temperatures likely to be encountered in the southern UK. Comparison with atmospheric electric field measurements during disturbed weather confirms that bipolar electric fields induce corona currents of corresponding sign, with magnitudes ∼0.5 μA.

On the 'downward control' of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces

The situation considered is that of a zonally symmetric model of the middle atmosphere subject to a given quasi-steady zonal force F̄, conceived to be the result of irreversible angular momentum transfer due to the upward propagation and breaking of Rossby and gravity waves together with any other dissipative eddy effects that may be relevant. The model's diabatic heating is assumed to have the qualitative character of a relaxation toward some radiatively determined temperature field. To the extent that the force F̄ may be regarded as given, and the extratropical angular momentum distribution is realistic, the extratropical diabatic mass flow across a given isentropic surface may be regarded as controlled exclusively by the F̄ distribution above that surface (implying control by the eddy dissipation above that surface and not, for instance, by the frequency of tropopause folding below). This “downward control” principle expresses a critical part of the dynamical chain of cause and effect governing the average rate at which photochemical products like ozone become available for folding into, or otherwise descending into, the extratropical troposphere. The dynamical facts expressed by the principle are also relevant, for instance, to understanding the seasonal-mean rate of upwelling of water vapor to the summer mesopause, and the interhemispheric differences in stratospheric tracer transport. The robustness of the principle is examined when F̄ is time-dependent. For a global-scale, zonally symmetric diabatic circulation with a Brewer-Dobson-like horizontal structure given by the second zonally symmetric Hough mode, with Rossby height HR = 13 km in an isothermal atmosphere with density scale height H = 7 km, the vertical partitioning of the unsteady part of the mass circulation caused by fluctuations in F̄ confined to a shallow layer LF̄ is always at least 84% downward. It is 90% downward when the force fluctuates sinusoidally on twice the radiative relaxation timescale and 95% if five times slower. The time-dependent adjustment when F̄ is changed suddenly is elucidated, extending the work of Dickinson (1968), when the atmosphere is unbounded above and below. Above the forcing, the adjustment is characterized by decay of the meridional mass circulation cell at a rate proportional to the radiative relaxation rate τr−1 divided by {1 + (4H2/HR2)}. This decay is related to the boundedness of the angular momentum that can be taken up by the finite mass of air above LF̄ without causing an ever-increasing departure from thermal wind balance. Below the forcing, the meridional mass circulation cell penetrates downward at a speed τr−1 HR2/H. For the second Hough mode, the time for downward penetration through one density scale height is about 6 days if the radiative relaxation time is 20 days, the latter being representative of the lower stratosphere. At any given altitude, a steady state is approached. The effect of a rigid lower boundary on the time-dependent adjustment is also considered. If a frictional planetary boundary layer is present then a steady state is ultimately approached everywhere, with the mass circulation extending downward from LF̄ and closing via the boundary layer. Satellite observations of temperature and ozone are used in conjunction with a radiative transfer scheme to estimate the altitudes from which the lower stratospheric diabatic vertical velocity is controlled by the effective F̄ in the real atmosphere. The data appear to indicate that about 80% of the effective control is usually exerted from below 40 km but with significant exceptions up to 70 km (in the high latitude southern hemispheric winter). The implications for numerical modelling of chemical transport are noted.

Mean motions induced by baroclinic instability in a jet

A study is made of the zonal-mean motions induced by a growing baroclinic wave in several contexts, under the framework of three different analysis schemes: the conventional Eulerian mean (EM), the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM), and the generalized Lagrangian mean (GLM). The effect of meridional shear in the initial jet on these induced mean motions is considered by treating the instability problem in the context of the two-layer model. The conceptual simplicity of the TEM formulation is shown to be useful in diagnosing the dynamics of instability, much as it has been found helpful in many problems of wave, mean-flow interaction. In addition, it is found that the TEM vertical velocity is a very good indicator of the GLM vertical velocity. However, the GLM meridional velocity is always convergent towards the centre of instability activity, and is not at all well represented by the nondivergent TEM meridional velocity. In comparing the results with Uryu's (1979) calculation of the GLM circulation induced by a growing Eady wave, it is found that the inclusion of meridional jet shear in the present work leads to some strikingly different effects in the GLM zonal wind acceleration. In the case of pure baroclinic instability treated by Uryu, the Eulerian and Stokes accelerations nearly cancel each other in the centre of the channel, leaving a weak Lagrangian acceleration opposed to the Eulerian one. In the more general case of mixed baroclinic-barotropic instability, however, the Eulerian and Stokes accelerations can reinforce one another, leading to a very strong Lagrangian zonal wind

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

The ocean’s role in setting the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere–ocean–ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work.

Multiscale geostatistical analysis of AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS global NDVI products

Global NDVI data are routinely derived from the AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS/Terra earth observation records for a range of applications from terrestrial vegetation monitoring to climate change modeling. This has led to a substantial interest in the harmonization of multisensor records. Most evaluations of the internal consistency and continuity of global multisensor NDVI products have focused on time-series harmonization in the spectral domain, often neglecting the spatial domain. We fill this void by applying variogram modeling (a) to evaluate the differences in spatial variability between 8-km AVHRR, 1-km SPOT-VGT, and 1-km, 500-m, and 250-m MODIS NDVI products over eight EOS (Earth Observing System) validation sites, and (b) to characterize the decay of spatial variability as a function of pixel size (i.e. data regularization) for spatially aggregated Landsat ETM+ NDVI products and a real multisensor dataset. First, we demonstrate that the conjunctive analysis of two variogram properties – the sill and the mean length scale metric – provides a robust assessment of the differences in spatial variability between multiscale NDVI products that are due to spatial (nominal pixel size, point spread function, and view angle) and non-spatial (sensor calibration, cloud clearing, atmospheric corrections, and length of multi-day compositing period) factors. Next, we show that as the nominal pixel size increases, the decay of spatial information content follows a logarithmic relationship with stronger fit value for the spatially aggregated NDVI products (R2 = 0.9321) than for the native-resolution AVHRR, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS NDVI products (R2 = 0.5064). This relationship serves as a reference for evaluation of the differences in spatial variability and length scales in multiscale datasets at native or aggregated spatial resolutions. The outcomes of this study suggest that multisensor NDVI records cannot be integrated into a long-term data record without proper consideration of all factors affecting their spatial consistency. Hence, we propose an approach for selecting the spatial resolution, at which differences in spatial variability between NDVI products from multiple sensors are minimized. This approach provides practical guidance for the harmonization of long-term multisensor datasets.

First order k-th moment finite element analysis of nonlinear operator equations with stochastic data

We develop and analyze a class of efficient Galerkin approximation methods for uncertainty quantification of nonlinear operator equations. The algorithms are based on sparse Galerkin discretizations of tensorized linearizations at nominal parameters. Specifically, we consider abstract, nonlinear, parametric operator equations J(\alpha ,u)=0 for random input \alpha (\omega ) with almost sure realizations in a neighborhood of a nominal input parameter \alpha _0. Under some structural assumptions on the parameter dependence, we prove existence and uniqueness of a random solution, u(\omega ) = S(\alpha (\omega )). We derive a multilinear, tensorized operator equation for the deterministic computation of k-th order statistical moments of the random solution's fluctuations u(\omega ) - S(\alpha _0). We introduce and analyse sparse tensor Galerkin discretization schemes for the efficient, deterministic computation of the k-th statistical moment equation. We prove a shift theorem for the k-point correlation equation in anisotropic smoothness scales and deduce that sparse tensor Galerkin discretizations of this equation converge in accuracy vs. complexity which equals, up to logarithmic terms, that of the Galerkin discretization of a single instance of the mean field problem. We illustrate the abstract theory for nonstationary diffusion problems in random domains.

Near-optimal mean value estimates for multidimensional Weyl sums

We obtain sharp estimates for multidimensional generalisations of Vinogradov’s mean value theorem for arbitrary translation-dilation invariant systems, achieving constraints on the number of variables approaching those conjectured to be the best possible. Several applications of our bounds are discussed.

Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing

An underestimate of atmospheric blocking occurrence is a well-known limitation of many climate models. This article presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in an atmospheric model with increased horizontal resolution. European blocking frequency increases with model resolution, and this results from an improvement in the atmospheric patterns of variability as well as a simple improvement in the mean state. There is some evidence that the transient eddy momentum forcing of European blocks is increased at high resolution, which could account for this. However, it is also shown that the increase in resolution of the orography is needed to realise the improvement in blocking, consistent with the increase in height of the Rocky Mountains acting to increase the tilt of the Atlantic jet stream and giving higher mean geopotential heights over northern Europe. Blocking frequencies in the Pacific sector are also increased with atmospheric resolution, but in this case the improvement in orography actually leads to a decrease in blocking

On the generalized eigenvalue problem for the Rossby wave vertical velocity in the presence of mean flow and topography

In a series of papers, Killworth and Blundell have proposed to study the effects of a background mean flow and topography on Rossby wave propagation by means of a generalized eigenvalue problem formulated in terms of the vertical velocity, obtained from a linearization of the primitive equations of motion. However, it has been known for a number of years that this eigenvalue problem contains an error, which Killworth was prevented from correcting himself by his unfortunate passing and whose correction is therefore taken up in this note. Here, the author shows in the context of quasigeostrophic (QG) theory that the error can ulti- mately be traced to the fact that the eigenvalue problem for the vertical velocity is fundamentally a non- linear one (the eigenvalue appears both in the numerator and denominator), unlike that for the pressure. The reason that this nonlinear term is lacking in the Killworth and Blundell theory comes from neglecting the depth dependence of a depth-dependent term. This nonlinear term is shown on idealized examples to alter significantly the Rossby wave dispersion relation in the high-wavenumber regime but is otherwise irrelevant in the long-wave limit, in which case the eigenvalue problems for the vertical velocity and pressure are both linear. In the general dispersive case, however, one should first solve the generalized eigenvalue problem for the pressure vertical structure and, if needed, diagnose the vertical velocity vertical structure from the latter.

Nature of vegetation and building morphology characteristics across a city: influence on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in London

Vegetation and building morphology characteristics are investigated at 19 sites on a north-south LiDAR transect across the megacity of London. Local maxima of mean building height and building plan area density at the city centre are evident. Surprisingly, the mean vegetation height (zv3) is also found to be highest in the city centre. From the LiDAR data various morphological parameters are derived as well as shadow patterns. Continuous images of the effects of buildings and of buildings plus vegetationon sky view factor (Ψ) are derived. A general reduction of Ψ is found, indicating the importance of including vegetation when deriving Ψ in urban areas. The contribution of vegetation to the shadowing at ground level is higher during summer than in autumn. Using these 3D data the influence on urban climate and mean radiant temperature (T mrt ) is calculated with SOLWEIG. The results from these simulations highlight that vegetation can be most effective at reducing heat stress within dense urban environments in summer. The daytime average T mrt is found to be lowest in the densest urban environments due to shadowing; foremost from buildings but also from trees. It is clearly shown that this method could be used to quantify the influence of vegetation on T mrt within the urban environment. The results presented in this paper highlight a number of possible climate sensitive planning practices for urban areas at the local scale (i.e. 102- 5 × 103 m).

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

In situ and remote-sensing measurements of the mean microphysical and optical properties of industrial pollution aerosol during ADRIEX

We present a summary of the principal physical and optical properties of aerosol particles using the FAAM BAE-146 instrumented aircraft during ADRIEX between 27 August and 6 September 2004, augmented by sunphotometer, lidar and satellite retrievals. Observations of anthropogenic aerosol, principally from industrial sources, were concentrated over the northern Adriatic Sea and over the Po Valley close to the aerosol sources. An additional flight was also carried out over the Black Sea to compare east and west European pollution. Measurements show the single-scattering albedo of dry aerosol particles to vary considerably between 0.89 and 0.97 at a wavelength of 0.55 μm, with a campaign mean within the polluted lower free troposphere of 0.92. Although aerosol concentrations varied significantly from day to day and during individual days, the shape of the aerosol size distribution was relatively consistent through the experiment, with no detectable change observed over land and over sea. There is evidence to suggest that the pollution aerosol within the marine boundary layer was younger than that in the elevated layer. Trends in the aerosol volume distribution show consistency with multiple-site AERONET radiometric observations. The aerosol optical depths derived from aircraft measurements show a consistent bias to lower values than both the AERONET and lidar ground-based radiometric observations, differences which can be explained by local variations in the aerosol column loading and by some aircraft instrumental artefacts. Retrievals of the aerosol optical depth and fine-mode (<0.5 μm radius) fraction contribution to the optical depth using MODIS data from the Terra and Aqua satellites show a reasonable level of agreement with the AERONET and aircraft measurements.