Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the RodriguesTriple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods(fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for theextraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation ofgeochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marinegeologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. Thedisplay of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth providedconsistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not beidentified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods wereapplied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient assimilarity measure.During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was madeand many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of thesedata. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations,reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visualinterpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and toanswers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana-Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplotscattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components andvisualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will beplotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification ofthe expected sources of the sedimentary process.Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments

A geoprocessing approach for studying and controlling schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that have been recently tested for improving our understanding of the spatial distribution of disease. The objective of this paper was to further develop the GIS technology to model and control schistosomiasis using environmental, social, biological and remote-sensing variables. A final regression model (R² = 0.39) was established, after a variable selection phase, with a set of spatial variables including the presence or absence of Biomphalaria glabrata, winter enhanced vegetation index, summer minimum temperature and percentage of houses with water coming from a spring or well. A regional model was also developed by splitting the state of Minas Gerais (MG) into four regions and establishing a linear regression model for each of the four regions: 1 (R² = 0.97), 2 (R² = 0.60), 3 (R² = 0.63) and 4 (R² = 0.76). Based on these models, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for MG. In this paper, geostatistics was also used to make inferences about the presence of Biomphalaria spp. The result was a map of species and risk areas. The obtained risk map permits the association of uncertainties, which can be used to qualify the inferences and it can be thought of as an auxiliary tool for public health strategies.

Factors associated with use of community mental health services by schizophrenia patients using multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND Persons with schizophrenia and related disorders may be particularly sensitive to a number of determinants of service use, including those related with illness, socio-demographic characteristics and organizational factors. The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with outpatient contacts at community mental health services of patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. METHODS This cross-sectional study analyzed 1097 patients. The main outcome measure was the total number of outpatient consultations during one year. Independent variables were related to socio-demographic, clinical and use of service factors. Data were collected from clinical records. RESULTS The multilevel linear regression model explained 46.35% of the variance. Patients with significantly more contacts with ambulatory services were not working and were receiving welfare benefits (p = 0.02), had no formal education (p = 0.02), had a global level of severity of two or three (four being the most severe) (p < 0.001), with one or more inpatient admissions (p < 0.001), and in contact with both types of professional (nurses and psychiatrists) (p < 0.001). The patients with the fewest ambulatory contacts were those with diagnoses of persistent delusional disorders (p = 0.04) and those who were attended by four of the 13 psychiatrists (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS As expected, the variables that explained the use of community service could be viewed as proxies for severity of illness. The most surprising finding, however, was that a group of four psychiatrists was also independently associated with use of ambulatory services by patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. More research is needed to carefully examine how professional support networks interact to affect use of mental health.

Appraisal of Phlebotomus argentipes habitat suitability using a remotely sensed index in the kala-azar endemic focus of Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis, or kala-azar, is recognised as a serious emerging public health problem in India. In this study, environmental parameters, such as land surface temperature (LST) and renormalised difference vegetation indices (RDVI), were used to delineate the association between environmental variables and Phlebotomus argentipes abundance in a representative endemic region of Bihar, India. The adult P. argentipes were collected between September 2009-February 2010 using the hand-held aspirator technique. The distribution of P. argentipes was analysed with the LST and RDVI of the peak and lean seasons. The association between environmental covariates and P. argentipes density was analysed a multivariate linear regression model. The sandfly density at its maximum in September, whereas the minimum density was recorded in January. The regression model indicated that the season, minimum LST, mean LST and mean RDVI were the best environmental covariates for the P. argentipes distribution. The final model indicated that nearly 74% of the variance of sandfly density could be explained by these environmental covariates. This approach might be useful for mapping and predicting the distribution of P. argentipes, which may help the health agencies that are involved in the kala-azar control programme focus on high-risk areas.

She’s a femme fatale: low-density larval development produces good disease vectors

Two hypotheses for how conditions for larval mosquitoes affect vectorial capacity make opposite predictions about the relationship of adult size and frequency of infection with vector-borne pathogens. Competition among larvae produces small adult females. The competition-susceptibility hypothesis postulates that small females are more susceptible to infection and predicts frequency of infection should decrease with size. The competition-longevity hypothesis postulates that small females have lower longevity and lower probability of becoming competent to transmit the pathogen and thus predicts frequency of infection should increase with size. We tested these hypotheses for Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. In the laboratory, longevity increases with size, then decreases at the largest sizes. For field-collected females, generalised linear mixed model comparisons showed that a model with a linear increase of frequency of dengue with size produced the best Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Consensus prediction of three competing models indicated that frequency of infection increases monotonically with female size, consistent with the competition-longevity hypothesis. Site frequency of infection was not significantly related to site mean size of females. Thus, our data indicate that uncrowded, low competition conditions for larvae produce the females that are most likely to be important vectors of dengue. More generally, ecological conditions, particularly crowding and intraspecific competition among larvae, are likely to affect vector-borne pathogen transmission in nature, in this case via effects on longevity of resulting adults. Heterogeneity among individual vectors in likelihood of infection is a generally important outcome of ecological conditions impacting vectors as larvae.

Pooling of dentin microtensile bond strength data improves clinical correlation.

Purpose: To evaluate whether the correlation between in vitro bond strength data and estimated clinical retention rates of cervical restorations after two years depends on pooled data obtained from multicenter studies or single-test data. Materials and Methods: Pooled mean data for six dentin adhesive systems (Adper Prompt L-Pop, Clearfil SE, OptiBond FL, Prime & Bond NT, Single Bond, and Scotchbond Multipurpose) and four laboratory methods (macroshear, microshear, macrotensile and microtensile bond strength test) (Scherrer et al, 2010) were correlated to estimated pooled two-year retention rates of Class V restorations using the same adhesive systems. For bond strength data from a single test institute, the literature search in SCOPUS revealed one study that tested all six adhesive systems (microtensile) and two that tested five of the six systems (microtensile, macroshear). The correlation was determined with a database designed to perform a meta-analysis on the clinical performance of cervical restorations (Heintze et al, 2010). The clinical data were pooled and adjusted in a linear mixed model, taking the study effect, dentin preparation, type of isolation and bevelling of enamel into account. A regression analysis was carried out to evaluate the correlation between clinical and laboratory findings. Results: The results of the regression analysis for the pooled data revealed that only the macrotensile (adjusted R2 = 0.86) and microtensile tests (adjusted R2 = 0.64), but not the shear and the microshear tests, correlated well with the clinical findings. As regards the data from a single-test institute, the correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Macrotensile and microtensile bond strength tests showed an adequate correlation with the retention rate of cervical restorations after two years. Bond strength tests should be carried out by different operators and/or research institutes to determine the reliability and technique sensitivity of the material under investigation.

Trends in smoking and lung cancer mortality in Switzerland.

Patterns of cigarette smoking in Switzerland were analyzed on the basis of sales data (available since 1924) and national health surveys conducted in the last decade. There was a steady and substantial increase in cigarettes sales up to the early 1970s. Thereafter, the curve tended to level off around an average value of 3,000 cigarettes per adult per year. According to the 1981-1983 National Health Survey, 37% of Swiss men were current smokers, 25% were ex-smokers, and 39% were never smokers. Corresponding porportions in women were 22, 11, and 67%. Among men, smoking prevalence was higher in lower social classes, and some moderate decline was apparent from survey data over the period 1975-1981 mostly in later middle-age. Trends in lung cancer death certification rates over the period 1950-1984 were analyzed using standard cross-sectional methods and a log-linear Poisson model to isolate the effects of age, birth cohort, and year of death. Mortality from lung cancer increased substantially among Swiss men between the early 1950s and the late 1970s, and levelled off (around a value of 70/100,000 men) thereafter. Among women, there has been a steady upward trend which started in the mid-1960s, and continues to climb steadily, although lung cancer mortality is still considerably lower in absolute terms (around 8/100,000 women) than in several North European countries or in North America. Cohort analyses indicate that the peak rates in men were reached by the generation born around 1910 and mortality stabilized for subsequent generations up to the 1930 birth cohort. Among females, marked increases were observed in each subsequent birth cohort. This pattern of trends is consistent with available information on smoking prevalence in successive generations, showing a peak among men for the 1910 cohort, but steady upward trends among females. Over the period 1980-1984, about 90% of lung cancer deaths among Swiss men and about 40% of those among women could be attributed to smoking (overall proportion, 85%).

Alliance patterns over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: The shape of productive relationships.

The shape of alliance processes over the course of psychotherapy has already been studied in several process-outcome studies on very brief psychotherapy. The present study applies the shape-of-change methodology to short-term dynamic psychotherapies and complements this method with hierarchical linear modeling. A total of 50 psychotherapies of up to 40 sessions were included. Alliance was measured at the end of each session. The results indicate that a linear progression model is most adequate. Three main patterns were found: stable, linear, and quadratic growth. The linear growth pattern, along with the slope parameter, was related to treatment outcome. This study sheds additional light on alliance process research, underscores the importance of linear alliance progression for outcome, and also fosters a better understanding of its limitations.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population (epublish)

BACKGROUND: Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. METHODS: We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS: The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). CONCLUSIONS: We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

Expression of apoptosis and survival genes in human memory T cell populations

RESUME Introduction: Les cellules T mémoires humaines sont classées en trois sous-populations sur la base de l'expression d'un marqueur de surface cellulaire, CD45RA, et du récepteur aux chimiokines, CCR7. Ces sous-populations, nommées cellules mémoires centrales (TcM), mémoires effectrices (TEM) et mémoires effectrices terminales (ITEM), ont des rôles fonctionnels distincts, ainsi que des capacités de prolifération et de régénération différentes. Cependant, la génération de ces différences reste encore mal comprise et on ignore les mécanismes moléculaires impliqués. Matériaux et Méthodes: Des cellules mononucléaires humaines du sang périphérique ont été séparées par cytométrie de flux selon leur expression de CD4, CD8, CD45RA et CCR7 en sous-populations de cellules CD4+ ou CD8+ naïves, TcM, TEM ou ITEM. Dans chacune de ces sous-populations, 14 gènes impliqués dans l'apoptose, la survie ou la capacité proliférative des cellules T ont été quantifiés par RT-PCR en temps réel, relativement à l'expression d'un gène de référence endogène. L'ARN provenant de 450 cellules T a été utilisé par gène et par sous-population. Les gènes analysés (cibles) comprenaient des gènes de survie (BAFF, APRIL, BAFF-R, BCMA, TACI, IL-15Rα, IL-7Rα), des gènes anti-apoptotiques (Bcl-2, BclxL, FLIP), des gènes pro-apoptotiques (Bad, Bax, Fast) et le gène anti-prolifératif, Tob. A l'aide de la méthode comparative delta-delta-CT, le taux d'expression des gènes cibles de chaque sous-population des cellules T mémoires CD4+ et CD8+, à été comparée à leur taux d'expression dans les cellules T naïves CD4+ et CD8+. Résultats: Dans les cellules CD8+, les gènes pro-apoptotiques Bax et Fast étaient surexprimés dans toutes les sous-populations mémoires, tandis que l'expression des facteurs anti-apoptotiques et de survie comme Bcl-2, APRIL et BAFF-R, étaient diminués. Ces deux tendances étaient particulièrement accentuées dans les sous-groupes des cellules mémoires TEM et TTEM. A noter que malgré le fait que leur expression était également diminuée dans les autres cellules mémoires, le facteur de survie IL-7Ra, était sélectivement surexprimé dans la sous-population de cellules TcM et l'expression d'IL-15Ra était sélectivement augmentée dans les TEM. Dans les cellules CD4+, le taux d'expression des gènes analysés était plus variable entre les sujets étudiés que dans les cellules CD8+, ne permettant pas de définir un profil d'expression spécifique. L'expression du gène de survie BAFF par contre, a été significativement augmentée dans toutes les sous-populations mémoire CD4+. Il en va de même pour l'expression d' APRIL et de BAFF-R, bien que dans moindre degré. A remarquer que l'expression du facteur anti-apoptotique Fast a été observée uniquement dans la souspopulation des TTEM. Discussion et Conclusions: Cette étude montre une nette différence entre les cellules CD8+ et CD4+, en ce qui concerne les profils d'expression des gènes impliqués dans la survie et l'apoptose des cellules T mémoires. Ceci pourrait impliquer une régulation cellulaire homéostatique distincte dans ces deux compartiments de cellules T mémoires. Dans les cellules CD8+ l'expression d'un nombre de gènes impliqués dans la survie et la protection de l'apoptose semblerait être diminuée dans les populations TEM et TTEM en comparaison à celle des sous-populations naïves et TEM, tandis que l'expression des gènes pro-apoptotiques semblerait être augmentée. Comme ceci paraît être plus accentué dans les TTEM, cela pourrait indiquer une plus grande disposition à l'apopotose dans les populations CCR7- (effectrices) et une perte de survie parallèlement à l'acquisition de capacités effectrices. Ceci parlerait en faveur d'un modèle de différentiation linéaire dans les cellules CD8+. De plus, l'augmentation sélective de l'expression d'IL-7Ra observée dans le sous-groupe de cellules mémoires TEM, et d'IL-15Ra dans celui des TEM, pourrait indiquer un moyen de sélection pour des réponses immunitaires mémoires à long terme par une réponse distincte à ces cytokines. Dans les cellules CD4+ par contre, aucun profil d'expression n'a pu être déterminé; les résultats suggèrent même une résistance relative à l'apoptose de la part des cellules mémoires. Ceci pourrait favoriser l'existence d'un modèle de différentiation plus flexible avec des possibilités d'interaction multiples. Ainsi, la surexpression sélective de BAFF, APRIL et BAFF-R dans les sous-populations individuelles des cellules mémoires pourrait être un indice de l'interaction de ces sous-groupes avec des cellules B. ABSTRACT Introduction: Based on their surface expression of the CD45 isoform and of the CCR7 chemokine receptor, memory T cells have been divided into the following three subsets: central memory (TAM), effector memory (TEM) and terminal effector memory (ITEM). Distinct functional roles and different proliferative and regenerative capacities have been attributed to each one of these subpopulations. The molecular mechanisms underlying these differences; however, remain poorly understood. Materials and Methods: According to their expression of CD4, CD8, CD45RA and CCR7, human peripheral blood mononuclear cells were sorted by flow-cytometry into CD4+ or CD8+ naïve, TAM, TEM and ITEM subsets. Using real-time PCR, the expression of 14 genes known to be involved in apoptotis, survival or proliferation of T cells was quantified separately in each individual subset, relative to an endogenous reference gene. The RNA equivalent of 450 T cells was used for each gene and subset. The target gene panel included the survival genes BAFF, APRIL, BAFF-R, BCMA, TACI, IL-15Rα and IL-7Rα, the anti-apoptotic genes Bcl2, Bcl-xL and FLIP, the pro-apoptotic genes Bad, Bax and Fast, as well as the antiproliferative gene Tob. Using the comparative CT-method, the expression of the target genes in the three memory T cell subsets of both CD4+ and CD8+ T cell populations was compared to their expression in the naïve T cells. Results: In CD8+ cells, the pro-apoptotic factors Bax and Fast were found to be upregulated in all memory T cell subsets, whereas the survival and anti-apoptotic factors Bcl-2, APRIL and BAFF-R were downregulated. These tendencies were most accentuated in TEM and TTEM subsets. Even though the survival factor IL-7Rα was also downregulated in these subsets, interestingly, it was selectively upregulated in the CD8+ TAM subset. Similarly, IL-15Rαexpression was shown to be selectively upregulated in the CD8+ TEM subset. In CD4+ cells, the expression levels of the analyzed genes showed a greater inter-individual variability than in CD8+ cells, thus suggesting the absence of any particular expression pattern for CD4+ memory T cells. However, the survival factor BAFF was found to be significantly upregulated in all CD4+ memory T cell subsets, as was also the expression of APRIL and BAFF-R, although to a lesser extent. Furthermore, it was noted that the pro-apoptotic gene Fast was only expressed in the TTEM CD4+ subset. Discussion and Conclusions: Genes involved in apoptosis and survival in human memory T cells have been shown to be expressed differently in CD8+ cells as compared to CD4+ cells, suggesting a distinct regulation of cell homeostasis in these two memory T cell compartments. The present study suggests that, in CD8+ T cells, the expression of various survival and antiapoptotic genes is downregulated in TEM and TTEM subsets, while the expression of proapoptotic genes is upregulated in comparison to the naïve and the TAM populations. These characteristics, potentially translating to a greater susceptibility to apoptosis in the CCR7- (effector) memory populations, are accentuated in the TTEM population, suggesting a loss of survival in parallel to the acquisition of effector capacities. This speaks in favour of a linear differentiation model in CD8+ T memory cells. Moreover, the observed selectively increased expression of IL-7Rα in CD8+ TAM cells - as that of IL-15Rα in CD8+ TEM cells -suggest that differential responsiveness to cytokines could confer a selection bias for distinct long-term memory cell responses. Relative to the results for CD8+ T cells, those for CD4+ T cells seem to indicate a certain resistance of the memory subsets to apoptosis, suggesting the possibility of a more flexible differentiation model with multiple checkpoints and potential interaction of CD4+ memory cells with other cells. Thus, the selective upregulation of BAFF, APRIL and BAFF-R in individual memory subsets could imply an interaction of these subsets with B cells.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Concentration-dependent half-lives of polychlorinated biphenyl in sera from an occupational cohort.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are carcinogenic. Estimating PCB half-life in the body based on levels in sera from exposed workers is complicated by the fact that occupational exposure to PCBs was to commercial PCB products (such as Aroclors 1242 and 1254) comprised of varying mixtures of PCB congeners. Half-lives were estimated using sera donated by 191 capacitor manufacturing plant workers in 1976 during PCB use (1946-1977), and post-exposure (1979, 1983, and 1988). Our aims were to: (1) determine the role of covariates such as gender on the half-life estimates, and (2) compare our results with other published half-life estimates based on exposed workers. All serum PCB levels were adjusted for PCB background levels. A linear spline model with a single knot was used to estimate two separate linear equations for the first two serum draws (Equation A) and the latter two (Equation B). Equation A gave half-life estimates of 1.74 years and 6.01 years for Aroclor 1242 and Aroclor 1254, respectively. Estimates were 21.83 years for Aroclor 1242 and 133.33 years for Aroclor 1254 using Equation B. High initial body burden was associated with rapid PCB elimination in workers at or shortly after the time they were occupationally exposed and slowed down considerably when the dose reached background PCB levels. These concentration-dependent half-life estimates had a transition point of 138.57 and 34.78 ppb for Aroclor 1242 and 1254, respectively. This result will help in understanding the toxicological and epidemiological impact of exposure to PCBs in humans.

The relationship between a short measure of health status and physical activity in a workplace population.

Many interventions promoting physical activity (PA) are effective in preventing disease onset, and although studies have found a positive relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQL) and PA, most of these studies have focused on older adults and those with chronic conditions. Less is known regarding the association between PA level and HRQL among healthy adults. Our objective was to analyse the relationship between PA level and HRQL among a sample of 573 employees aged 20-68 taking part in a workplace intervention to promote PA. Measures included HRQL (using a single item) and PA (i.e. Godin Leisure-Time Questionnaire). The Modified Canadian Aerobic Fitness Test (MCAFT) was also completed by 10% of the employees. MET-minute scores (assessing energy expenditure over one week) were compared across HRQL categories using ANOVA. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to further examine the relationship between HRQL and PA, controlling for potential covariates. Participants in the higher health status categories were found to report higher levels of energy expenditure (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression model, each unit increase in health status level translated in a mean increase of 356 MET-minutes in energy expenditure (p < 0.001). This single-item assessment of health status explained six percent of the variance in energy expenditure. The study concludes that higher energy expenditure through PA among an adult workplace population is positively associated with increased health status, and it also suggests that a single-item HRQL measure is suitable for community- and population-based studies, reducing response burden and research costs.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.