Using environmental niche modeling to understand biological invasions in a changing world

L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

Assessing rapid evolution in a changing environment.

Climate change poses a serious threat to species persistence. Effective modelling of evolutionary responses to rapid climate change is therefore essential. In this review we examine recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods, techniques normally used to study adaptation over long periods, which allow them to be applied to the study of adaptation over shorter time scales. This increased applicability is largely due to the emergence of more flexible models of character evolution and the parallel development of molecular technologies that can be used to assess adaptive variation at loci scattered across the genome. The merging of phylogenetic and population genetic approaches to the study of adaptation has significant potential to advance our understanding of rapid responses to environmental change.

Slope processes in changing permafrost environments: a geomorphological and sedimentological approach

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada al Centro de Estudos Geograficos de la Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal, entre 2011 i 2012. En aquest grup he desenvolupat la meva recerca focalitzada en ambients polars en presència de permafrost, concretament centrada en l’extrem nord-occidental de la Península Antàrtica (Shetland del Sud) i a l’Alt Àrtic (Svalvard). Ambdós àrees han registrat un augment de temperatura molt significatiu les darreres dècades. La meva recerca ha contemplat l’anàlisi de registres sedimentaris (lacustres, eòlics, vessant) i la monitorització de processos geomorfològics actuals a fi efecte d’entendre la dinàmica ambiental present i passada (i.e. clima). Amb aquesta finalitat he realitzat tres campanyes de treball de camp a l’Antàrtida i dues a l’Àrtic. El posterior treball de laboratori i d’oficina està propiciant nombroses publicacions que donen fe dels èxits assolits. A més, cal enfatitzar altres activitats desenvolupades durant la BP-A: coneixement de com organitzar i gestionar una campanya antàrtica, docència universitària, participació en comitès, associacions i tribunals de tesis doctorals, organització i participació en nombroses conferències, treball de camp en noves àrees d’estudi, referee per revistes internacionals, etc. Tanmateix, la concessió del projecte de recerca HOLOANTAR, del qual en sóc l’Investigador Responsable, ha estat l’èxit més important d’aquesta estada. Aquest projecte m’està conferint la capacitat de gestionar i integrar la recerca de 16 investigadors de diferents nacionalitats des d’una perspectiva multidisciplinar. Tothora, cal remarcar que no s’ha assolit un dels èxits que pretenia el meu projecte de BP-A: la transferència del bagatge i coneixement adquirit al sistema de recerca català. Malgrat haver presentat la meva candidatura per un contracte BP-B per tal que aquest background après a l’estranger revertís a Catalunya, el procés de selecció emprat en la convocatòria ho ha impedit i m’obliga a continuar la meva recerca a l’estranger.

Evidence for classification of c.1852_1853AA>GC in MLH1 as a neutral variant for Lynch syndrome

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant inherited cancer syndrome characterized by early onset cancers of the colorectum, endometrium and other tumours. A significant proportion of DNA variants in LS patients are unclassified. Reports on the pathogenicity of the c.1852_1853AA>GC (p.Lys618Ala) variant of the MLH1 gene are conflicting. In this study, we provide new evidence indicating that this variant has no significant implications for LS.Methods: The following approach was used to assess the clinical significance of the p.Lys618Ala variant: frequency in a control population, case-control comparison, co-occurrence of the p.Lys618Ala variant with a pathogenic mutation, co-segregation with the disease and microsatellite instability in tumours from carriers of the variant. We genotyped p.Lys618Ala in 1034 individuals (373 sporadic colorectal cancer [CRC] patients, 250 index subjects from families suspected of having LS [revised Bethesda guidelines] and 411 controls). Three well-characterized LS families that fulfilled the Amsterdam II Criteria and consisted of members with the p.Lys618Ala variant were included to assess co-occurrence and co-segregation. A subset of colorectal tumour DNA samples from 17 patients carrying the p.Lys618Ala variant was screened for microsatellite instability using five mononucleotide markers.Results: Twenty-seven individuals were heterozygous for the p.Lys618Ala variant; nine had sporadic CRC (2.41%), seven were suspected of having hereditary CRC (2.8%) and 11 were controls (2.68%). There were no significant associations in the case-control and case-case studies. The p.Lys618Ala variant was co-existent with pathogenic mutations in two unrelated LS families. In one family, the allele distribution of the pathogenic and unclassified variant was in trans, in the other family the pathogenic variant was detected in the MSH6 gene and only the deleterious variant co-segregated with the disease in both families. Only two positive cases of microsatellite instability (2/17, 11.8%) were detected in tumours from p.Lys618Ala carriers, indicating that this variant does not play a role in functional inactivation of MLH1 in CRC patients.Conclusions: The p.Lys618Ala variant should be considered a neutral variant for LS. These findings have implications for the clinical management of CRC probands and their relatives.

Social bases of changing income distributions

On the backdrop of very little sociological concern with rising income inequality, this paper examines how key changes in sociodemographic behaviour may help shed additional light on changes in household income distribution and especially on long-term income dynamics and inter-generational mobility. The paper argues that the joint effect of rising marital homogamy in terms of human capital and labour supply contributes generally to widen the income gap between households. Only uner very restrictive conditions, namely when the labour supply of low educated women grows dis-proportionally fast, will women's earnings contribute to more equality. Finally, the paper suggests that women's rising employment commitments contribute positively to equalizing the opportunity structure both via the income effect and if quality care is available, also via more homogenous cultural and cognitive stimulation of children. Mother's work does not generally have adverse effects for children's development.

Haemodynamic consequences of changing potassium concentrations in haemodialysis fluids.

BACKGROUND: A rapid decrease of serum potassium concentrations during haemodialysis produces a significant increase in blood pressure parameters at the end of the session, even if effects on intra-dialysis pressure are not seen. Paradoxically, in animal models potassium is a vasodilator and decreases myocardial contractility. The purpose of this trial is to study the precise haemodynamic consequences induced by acute changes in potassium concentration during haemodialysis. METHODS: In 24 patients, 288 dialysis sessions, using a randomised single blind crossover design, we compared six dialysate sequences with different potassium profiles. The dialysis sessions were divided into 3 tertiles, casually modulating potassium concentration in the dialysate between the value normally used K and the two cut-off points K+1 and K-1 mmol/l. Haemodynamics were evaluated in a non-invasive manner using a finger beat-to-beat monitor. RESULTS: Comparing K-1 and K+1, differences were found within the tertiles regarding systolic (+5.3, +6.6, +2.3 mmHg, p < 0.05, < 0.05, ns) and mean blood pressure (+4.3, +6.4, -0.5 mmHg, p < 0.01, < 0.01, ns), as well as peripheral resistance (+212, +253, -4 dyne.sec.cm-5, p < 0.05, < 0.05, ns). The stroke volume showed a non-statistically-significant inverse trend (-3.1, -5.2, -0.2 ml). 18 hypotension episodes were recorded during the course of the study. 72% with K-1, 11% with K and 17% with K+1 (p < 0.01 for comparison K-1 vs. K and K-1 vs. K+1). CONCLUSIONS: A rapid decrease in the concentration of serum potassium during the initial stage of the dialysis-obtained by reducing the concentration of potassium in the dialysate-translated into a decrease of systolic and mean blood pressure mediated by a decrease in peripheral resistance. The risk of intra-dialysis hypotension inversely correlates to the potassium concentration in the dialysate. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01224314.

Changing Diets in China’s Cities: Empirical Fact or Urban Legend, November 2006

China’s economic reforms, which began in 1978, resulted in remarkable income growth, and urban Chinese consumers have responded by dramatically increasing their consumption of meat, other livestock products, and fruits and by decreasing consumption of grain-based foods. Economic prosperity, a growing openness to international markets, and domestic policy reforms have changed the food marketing environment for Chinese consumers and may have contributed to shifts in consumer preferences. The objective of this paper is to uncover evidence of structural change in food consumption among urban residents in China. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used to test for structural change in aggregate household data from 1981 to 2004. The tests provided a reasonably clear picture of changing food consumption over the study period.

The Swiss Business Elite (1980-2000): How the Changing Composition of the Elite Explains the Decline of the Swiss Company Network

In this paper we analyse the decline of the Swiss corporate network between 1980 and 2000. We address the theoretical and methodological challenge of this transformation by the use of a combination of network analysis and multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). Based on a sample of top managers of the 110 largest Swiss companies in 1980 and 2000 we show that, beyond an adjustment to structural pressure, an explanation of the decline of the network has to include the strategies of the fractions of the business elites. We reveal that three factors contribute crucially to the decline of the Swiss corporate network: the managerialization of industrial leaders, the marginalization of law degree holders and the influx of hardly connected foreign managers.

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Variation of the Chlorophyll a Related to Sea Surface Temperature, Wind and Geostrophic Currents in the Cape Verde Region Using Satellite Data

We present a comparative analysis of satellite derived climatologies in the Cape Verde region (CV). In order to establish chlorophyll a variability, in relation to other oceanographic phenomena, a set of, relatively long (from five to eight years), time series of chlorophyll a, sea surface temperature, wind and geostrophic currents, were ensembled for the Eastern Central Atlantic (ECA). We studied seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton concentration, in relation to the rest of the variables, with a special focus in CV. We compared the situation within the archipelago with those of the surrounding marine environments, such as the North West African Upwelling (NWAU), North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NASTG), North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) and Guinea Dome (GD). At the seasonal scale, CV region behaves partly as the surrounding areas, nevertheless, some autochthonous features were also found. The maximum peak of the pigment having a positive correlation with temperature is found at the end of the year for all the points in the archipelago; a less remarkable rise with negative correlation is also detected in February for points CV2 and CV4. This is behavior that none of the surrounding environments have shown. This enrichment was found to be preceded by a drastic drop in wind intensity (SW Monsoon) during summer months. The inter-annual analysis shows a tendency for decreasing of the chlorophyll a concentration.

Expression of neutral endopeptidase, endothelin-1, and nuclear factor kappa B in prostate cancer: interrelations and associations with prostate-specific antigen recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

Objective. To study the impact of the neutral endopeptidase (NEP)/neuropeptides (NPs) axis and nuclear factor kappa B (NFκB) as predictors of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP). Patients and Methods. 70 patients with early-stage PC were treated with RP and their tumor samples were evaluated for expression of NEP, endothelin-1 (ET-1) and NFκB (p65). Time to PSA recurrence was correlated with the examined parameters and combined with preoperative PSA level, Gleason score, pathological TNM (pT) stage, and surgical margin (SM) assessment. Results and Limitations. Membranous expression of NEP (P < 0.001), cytoplasmic ET-1 (P = 0.002), and cytoplasmic NFκB (P < 0.001) were correlated with time to PSA relapse. NEP was associated with ET-1 (P < 0.001) and NFκB (P < 0.001). ET-1 was also correlated with NFκB (P < 0.001). NEP expression (P = 0.017), pT stage (P = 0.013), and SMs (P = 0.036) were independent predictors of time to PSA recurrence. Conclusions. There seems to be a clinical model of NEP/NPs and NFκB pathways interconnection, with their constituents following inverse patterns of expression in accordance with their biological roles and molecular interrelations.