On Finding the Natural Number of Topics with Latent Dirichlet Allocation: Some Observations

It is important to identify the ``correct'' number of topics in mechanisms like Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA) as they determine the quality of features that are presented as features for classifiers like SVM. In this work we propose a measure to identify the correct number of topics and offer empirical evidence in its favor in terms of classification accuracy and the number of topics that are naturally present in the corpus. We show the merit of the measure by applying it on real-world as well as synthetic data sets(both text and images). In proposing this measure, we view LDA as a matrix factorization mechanism, wherein a given corpus C is split into two matrix factors M-1 and M-2 as given by C-d*w = M1(d*t) x Q(t*w).Where d is the number of documents present in the corpus anti w is the size of the vocabulary. The quality of the split depends on ``t'', the right number of topics chosen. The measure is computed in terms of symmetric KL-Divergence of salient distributions that are derived from these matrix factors. We observe that the divergence values are higher for non-optimal number of topics - this is shown by a `dip' at the right value for `t'.

Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Late-industrial sawmill customers.

The methods of secondary wood processing are assumed to evolve over time and to affect the requirements set for the wood material and its suppliers. The study aimed at analysing the industrial operating modes applied by joinery and furniture manufacturers as sawnwood users. Industrial operating mode was defined as a pattern of important decisions and actions taken by a company which describes the company's level of adjustment in the late-industrial transition. A non-probabilistic sample of 127 companies was interviewed, including companies from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland. Fifty-two of the firms were furniture manufacturers and the other 75 were producing windows and doors. Variables related to business philosophy, production operations, and supplier choice criteria were measured and used as a basis for a customer typology; variables related to wood usage and perceived sawmill performance were measured to be used to profile the customer types. Factor analysis was used to determine the latent dimensions of industrial operating mode. Canonical correlations analysis was applied in developing the final base for classifying the observations. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to build a five-group typology of secondary wood processing firms; these ranged from traditional mass producers to late-industrial flexible manufacturers. There is a clear connection between the amount of late-industrial elements in a company and the share of special and customised sawnwood it uses. Those joinery or furniture manufacturers that are more late-industrial also are likely to use more component-type wood material and to appreciate customer-oriented technical precision. The results show that the change is towards the use of late-industrial sawnwood materials and late-industrial supplier relationships.

Effect of process variables on die-billet temperature history in a slow speed hot coining type process

A computer code is developed as a part of an ongoing project on computer aided process modelling of forging operation, to simulate heat transfer in a die-billet system. The code developed on a stage-by-stage technique is based on an Alternating Direction Implicit scheme. The experimentally validated code is used to study the effect of process specifics such as preheat die temperature, machine ascent time, rate of deformation, and dwell time on the thermal characteristics in a batch coining operation where deformation is restricted to surface level only.

Estimation of variables at ungaged locations by empirical orthogonal functions

A technique based on empirical orthogonal functions is used to estimate hydrologic time-series variables at ungaged locations. The technique is applied to estimate daily and monthly rainfall, temperature and runoff values. The accuracy of the method is tested by application to locations where data are available. The second-order characteristics of the estimated data are compared with those of the observed data. The results indicate that the method is quick and accurate.

Genetic polymorphisms and laboratory variables as predictors of blood pressure response to antihypertensive drugs

Hypertension is one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity. The advantages of antihypertensive therapy have been clearly demonstrated, but only about 30% of hypertensive patients have their blood pressure (BP) controlled by such treatment. One of the reasons for this poor BP control may lie in the difficulty in predicting BP response to antihypertensive treatment. The average BP reduction achieved is similar for each drug in the main classes of antihypertensive agents, but there is a marked individual variation in BP responses to any given drug. The purpose of the present study was to examine BP response to four different antihypertensive monotherapies with regard to demographic characteristics, laboratory test results and common genetic polymorphisms. The subjects of the present study are participants in the pharmacogenetic GENRES Study. A total of 208 subjects completed the whole study protocol including four drug treatment periods of four weeks, separated by four-week placebo periods. The study drugs were amlodipine, bisoprolol, hydrochlorothiazide and losartan. Both office (OBP) and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) measurements were carried out. BP response to study drugs were related to basic clinical characteristics, pretreatment laboratory test results and common polymorphisms in genes coding for components of the renin-angiotensin system, alpha-adducin (ADD1), beta1-adrenergic receptor (ADRB1) and beta2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2). Age was positively correlated with BP responses to amlodipine and with OBP and systolic ABP responses to hydrochlorothiazide, while body mass index was negatively correlated with ABP responses to amlodipine. Of the laboratory test results, plasma renin activity (PRA) correlated positively with BP responses to losartan, with ABP responses to bisoprolol, and negatively with ABP responses to hydrochlorothiazide. Uniquely to this study, it was found that serum total calcium level was negatively correlated with BP responses to amlodipine, whilst serum total cholesterol level was negatively correlated with ABP responses to amlodipine. There were no significant associations of angiotensin II type I receptor 1166A/C, angiotensin converting enzyme I/D, angiotensinogen Met235Thr, ADD1 Gly460Trp, ADRB1 Ser49Gly and Gly389Arg and ADRB2 Arg16Gly and Gln27Glu polymorphisms with BP responses to the study drugs. In conclusion, this study confirmed the relationship between pretreatment PRA levels and response to three classes of antihypertensive drugs. This study is the first to note a significant inverse relation between serum calcium level and responsiveness to a calcium channel blocker. However, this study could not replicate the observations that common polymorphisms in angiotensin II type I receptor, angiotensin converting enzyme, angiotensinogen, ADD1, ADRB1, or ADRB2 genes can predict BP response to antihypertensive drugs.

On a Ratio of Functions of Exponential Random Variables and Some Applications

Consider L independent and identically distributed exponential random variables (r.vs) X-1, X-2 ,..., X-L and positive scalars b(1), b(2) ,..., b(L). In this letter, we present the probability density function (pdf), cumulative distribution function and the Laplace transform of the pdf of the composite r.v Z = (Sigma(L)(j=1) X-j)(2) / (Sigma(L)(j=1) b(j)X(j)). We show that the r.v Z appears in various communication systems such as i) maximal ratio combining of signals received over multiple channels with mismatched noise variances, ii)M-ary phase-shift keying with spatial diversity and imperfect channel estimation, and iii) coded multi-carrier code-division multiple access reception affected by an unknown narrow-band interference, and the statistics of the r.v Z derived here enable us to carry out the performance analysis of such systems in closed-form.

Casting and heat treatment variables of Al–7Si–Mg alloy

A review of the research work that has been carried out thus far relating the casting and heat treatment variables to the structure and mechanical properties of Al–7Si–Mg (wt-%) is presented here. Although specifications recommend a wide range of magnesium contents and a fairly high content of iron, a narrow range of magnesium contents, closer to either the upper or lower specified limits depending on the properties desired, and a low iron content will have to be maintained to obtain optimum and consistent mechanical properties. A few studies have revealed that the modification of eutectic silicon slightly increases ductility and fracture toughness and also that the effect of modification is predominant at low iron content. Generally, higher solidification rates give superior mechanical properties. Delayed aging (the time elapsed between quenching and artificial aging during precipitation hardening) severely affects the strength of the alloy. The mechanism of delayed aging can be explained on the basis of Pashley's kinetic model. It has been reported that certain trace additions (cadmium, indium, tin, etc.) neutralise the detrimental effect of delayed aging. In particular, it should be noted that delayed aging is not mentioned in any of the specifications. With reference to the mechanism by which trace additions neutralise the detrimental effect of delayed aging, various hypotheses have been postulated, of which impurity–vacancy interaction appears to be the most widely accepted.

Interest in university studies : Its role and relation to other motivational variables

This dissertation empirically explored interest as a motivational force in university studies, including the role it currently plays and possible ways of enhancing this role as a student motivator. The general research questions were as follows: 1) What role does interest play in university studies? 2) What explains academic success if studying is not based on interest? 3) How do different learning environments support or impede interest-based studying? Four empirical studies addressed these questions. Study 1 (n=536) compared first-year students explanations of their disciplinary choices in three fields: veterinary medicine, humanities and law. Study 2 (n=28) focused on the role of individual interest in the humanities and veterinary medicine, fields which are very different from each other as regards their nature of studying. Study 3 (n=52) explored veterinary students motivation and study practices in relation to their study success. Study 4 (n=16) explored veterinary students interest experience in individual lectures on a daily basis. By comparing different fields and focusing on one study field in more detail, it was possible to obtain a many-sided picture of the role of interest in different learning environments. Questionnaires and quantitative methods have often been used to measure interest in academic learning. The present work is based mostly on qualitative data, and qualitative methods were applied to add to the previous research. Study 1 explored students open-ended answers, and these provided a basis for the interviews in Study 2. Study 3 explored veterinary students portfolios in a longitudinal setting. For Study 4, a diary including both qualitative and quantitative measures was designed to capture veterinary students interest experience. Qualitative content analysis was applied in all four studies, but quantitative analyses were also added. The thesis showed that university students often explain their disciplinary choices in terms of interest. Because interest is related to high-quality learning, the students seemed to have a good foundation for successful studies. However, the learning environments did not always support interest-based studying; Time-management and coping skills were found to be more important than interest in terms of study success. The results also indicated that interest is not the only motivational variable behind university studies. For example, future goals are needed in order to complete a degree. Even so, the results clearly indicated that it would be worth supporting interest-based studying both in professionally and generally oriented study fields. This support is important not only to promote high-quality learning but also meaningful studying, student well-being, and life-long learning.

The Effect of Food-Related Lifestyle on the Choices of Consumers of Five Food Products

The purpose of this study was to find out whether food-related lifestyle guides and explains product evaluations, specifically, consumer perceptions and choice evaluations of five different food product categories: lettuce, mincemeat, savoury sauce, goat cheese, and pudding. The opinions of consumers who shop in neighbourhood stores were considered most valuable. This study applies means-end chain (MEC) theory, according to which products are seen as means by which consumers attain meaningful goals. The food-related lifestyle (FRL) instrument was created to study lifestyles that reflect these goals. Further, this research has adopted the view that the FRL functions as a script which guides consumer behaviour. Two research methods were used in this study. The first was the laddering interview, the primary aim of which was to gather information for formulating the questionnaire of the main study. The survey consisted of two separate questionnaires. The first was the FRL questionnaire modified for this study. The aim of the other questionnaire was to determine the choice criteria for buying five different categories of food products. Before these analyses could be made, several data modifications were made following MEC analysis procedures. Beside forming FRL dimensions by counting sum-scores from the FRL statements, factor analysis was run in order to elicit latent factors underlying the dimensions. The lifestyle factors found were adventurous, conscientious, enthusiastic, snacking, moderate, and uninvolved lifestyles. The association analyses were done separately for each choice of product as well as for each attribute-consequence linkage with a non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test. The testing variables were FRL dimensions and the FRL lifestyle factors. In addition, the relation between the attribute-consequence linkages and the demographic variables were analysed. Results from this study showed that the choice of product is sequential, so that consumers first categorize products into groups based on specific criteria like health or convenience. It was attested that the food-related lifestyles function as a script in food choice and that the FRL instrument can be used to predict consumer buying behaviour. Certain lifestyles were associated with the choice of each product category. The actual product choice within a product category then appeared to be a different matter. In addition, this study proposes a modification to the FRL instrument. The positive towards advertising FRL dimension was modified to examine many kinds of information search including the internet, TV, magazines, and other people. This new dimension, which was designated as being open to additional information, proved to be very robust and reliable in finding differences in consumer choice behaviour. Active additional information search was linked to adventurous and snacking food-related lifestyles. The results of this study support the previous knowledge that consumers expect to get many benefits simultaneously when they buy food products. This study brought detailed information about the benefits sought, the combination of benefits differing between products and between respondents. Household economy, pleasure and quality were emphasized with the choice of lettuce. Quality was the most significant benefit in choosing mincemeat, but health related benefits were often evaluated as well. The dominant benefits linked to savoury sauce were household economic benefits, expected pleasurable experiences, and a lift in self-respect. The choice of goat cheese appeared not to be an economic decision, self-respect, pleasure, and quality being included in the choice criteria. In choosing pudding, the respondents considered the well-being of family members, and indulged their family members or themselves.

The decline of malaria in Finland – the impact of the vector and social variables

Background: Malaria was prevalent in Finland in the 18th century. It declined slowly without deliberate counter-measures and the last indigenous case was reported in 1954. In the present analysis of indigenous malaria in Finland, an effort was made to construct a data set on annual malaria cases of maximum temporal length to be able to evaluate the significance of different factors assumed to affect malaria trends. Methods: To analyse the long-term trend malaria statistics were collected from 1750–2008. During that time, malaria frequency decreased from about 20,000 – 50,000 per 1,000,000 people to less than 1 per 1,000,000 people. To assess the cause of the decline, a correlation analysis was performed between malaria frequency per million people and temperature data, animal husbandry, consolidation of land by redistribution and household size. Results: Anopheles messeae and Anopheles beklemishevi exist only as larvae in June and most of July. The females seek an overwintering place in August. Those that overwinter together with humans may act as vectors. They have to stay in their overwintering place from September to May because of the cold climate. The temperatures between June and July determine the number of malaria cases during the following transmission season. This did not, however, have an impact on the longterm trend of malaria. The change in animal husbandry and reclamation of wetlands may also be excluded as a possible cause for the decline of malaria. The long-term social changes, such as land consolidation and decreasing household size, showed a strong correlation with the decline of Plasmodium. Conclusion: The indigenous malaria in Finland faded out evenly in the whole country during 200 years with limited or no counter-measures or medication. It appears that malaria in Finland was basically a social disease and that malaria trends were strongly linked to changes in human behaviour. Decreasing household size caused fewer interactions between families and accordingly decreasing recolonization possibilities for Plasmodium. The permanent drop of the household size was the precondition for a permanent eradication of malaria.

Abrasive Jet Machining - Process variables and current applications

brusive Jet Machining (AJM) or Micro Blast Machining is a non-traditional machining process, wherein material removal is effected by the erosive action of a high velocity jet of a gas, carrying fine-grained abrasive particles, impacting the work surface. The AJM process differs from conventional sand blasting in that the abrasive is much finer and the process parameters and cutting action are carefully controlled. The process is particularly suitable to cut intricate shapes in hard and brittle materials which are sensitive to heat and have a tendency to chip easily. In other words, AJM can handle virtually any hard or brittle material. Already the process has found its ways Into dozens of applications; sometimes replacing conventional alternatives often doing jobs that could not be done in any other way. This paper reviews the current status of this non-conventional machining process and discusses the unique advantages and possible applications.

SiO Maser Emission and the Intrinsic Properties of Mira Variables

This paper presents observations of SiO maser emission from 161 Mira variables distributed over a wide range of intrinsic parameters like spectral type, bolometric magnitude and amplitude of pulsation. The observations were made at 86.243 GHz, using the 10.4 m millimeter-wave telescope of the Raman Research Institute at Bangalore, India. These are the first observations made using this telescope. From these observations, we have established that the maser emission is restricted to Miras having mean spectral types between M6 and M10. The infrared period-luminosity relation for Mira variables is used to calculate their distances and hence estimate their maser luminosities from the observed fluxes. The maser luminosity is found to be correlated with the bolometric magnitude of the Mira variable. On an H-R diagram, the masing Mira variables are shown to lie in a region distinct from that for the non-masing ones.