DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

Molecular identification of the agent of Q fever – Coxiella burnetii – in domestic animals in State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Introduction Over the last recent years, the number of Q fever cases have has increased throughout the world. An epidemiological investigation was performed in the area in which the first molecular documentation of Q fever in Brazil was previously reported. Methods Indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and PCR of Coxiella burnetii targeting the htpAB gene were performed in samples from 14 dogs (blood); 1 cat (blood); 10 goats (blood, milk, vaginal swab and anal swab); 3 sheep (blood); and 2 horses (blood). Results Two dogs, two sheep and five goats were seroreactive. DNA was amplified from 6 milk and 2 blood samples from goats and from dogs, respectively. The sequence of the amplicons exhibited 99% sequence similarity with the homologous sequence of the htpAB gene of C. burnetii RSA 331 (GenBank - CP000890). Conclusions The results confirm C. burnetii infection in animals in Rio de Janeiro and reinforce the need for the surveillance of Q fever in Brazil.

An agent-based simulator to estimate domestic energy use

Throughout recent years, there has been an increase in the population size, as well as a fast economic growth, which has led to an increase of the energy demand that comes mainly from fossil fuels. In order to reduce the ecological footprint, governments have implemented sustainable measures and it is expected that by 2035 the energy produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar would be responsible for one-third of the energy produced globally. However, since the energy produced from renewable sources is governed by the availability of the respective primary energy source there is often a mismatch between production and demand, which could be solved by adding flexibility on the demand side through demand response (DR). DR programs influence the end-user electricity usage by changing its cost along the time. Under this scenario the user needs to estimate the energy demand and on-site production in advance to plan its energy demand according to the energy price. This work focuses on the development of an agent-based electrical simulator, capable of: (a) estimating the energy demand and on-site generation with a 1-min time resolution for a 24-h period, (b) calculating the energy price for a given scenario, (c) making suggestions on how to maximize the usage of renewable energy produced on-site and to lower the electricity costs by rescheduling the use of certain appliances. The results show that this simulator allows reducing the energy bill by 11% and almost doubling the use of renewable energy produced on-site.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic target attainment of intravenous β-lactam regimens against Gram-negative bacteria isolated in a Brazilian teaching hospital

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION: Monte Carlo simulations have been used for selecting optimal antibiotic regimens for treatment of bacterial infections. The aim of this study was to assess the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic target attainment of intravenous β-lactam regimens commonly used to treat bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Gram-negative rod-shaped organisms in a Brazilian teaching hospital.METHODS: In total, 5,000 patients were included in the Monte Carlo simulations of distinct antimicrobial regimens to estimate the likelihood of achieving free drug concentrations above the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC; fT > MIC) for the requisite periods to clear distinct target organisms. Microbiological data were obtained from blood culture isolates harvested in our hospital from 2008 to 2010.RESULTS: In total, 614 bacterial isolates, including Escherichia coli, Enterobacterspp., Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, were analyzed Piperacillin/tazobactam failed to achieve a cumulative fraction of response (CFR) > 90% for any of the isolates. While standard dosing (short infusion) of β-lactams achieved target attainment for BSIs caused by E. coliand Enterobacterspp., pharmacodynamic target attainment against K. pneumoniaeisolates was only achieved with ceftazidime and meropenem (prolonged infusion). Lastly, only prolonged infusion of high-dose meropenem approached an ideal CFR against P. aeruginosa; however, no antimicrobial regimen achieved an ideal CFR against A. baumannii.CONCLUSIONS:These data reinforce the use of prolonged infusions of high-dose β-lactam antimicrobials as a reasonable strategy for the treatment of BSIs caused by multidrug resistant Gram-negative bacteria in Brazil.

Cryptococcosis in Atlántico, Colombia: an approximation of the prevalence of this mycosis and the distribution of the etiological agent in the environment

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:Cryptococcosis is an invasive disease acquired by inhalation of infectious propagules from the environment. Currently, compulsory notification of the spread of this disease is not required in Colombia. However, reporting of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome cases to the National Surveillance System has suggested that there is a growing population at risk of contracting cryptococcosis. Few studies have described the occurrence of cryptococcosis in Colombia. Therefore, in this study, we examined the pathology of this disease in Atlántico, Colombia and determined the distributions of Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in the environment.METHODS:Clinical samples/isolates were gathered from cases of cryptococcosis previously diagnosed at health institutions in Atlántico, and surveys were completed by clinicians. The environmental study considered 32 sampling points and three tree species, i.e., Quickstick ( Gliricidia sepium ), Almond ( Terminalia catappa ), and Pink trumpet ( Tabebuia rosea ). Environmental and clinical samples/isolates were analyzed for phenotypic and genotypic confirmation.RESULTS:From 1997-2014, 41 cases of cryptococcosis were reported. The mean patient age was 40.5 years (range: 18-63 years); 76% were men, and 78% were HIV positive. Isolation was possible in 38 cases ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI in 37 cases and C. gattii , molecular type VGI in one case). In 2012-2014, 2,068 environmental samples were analyzed with a positivity of 0.4% ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI) in Almond and Pink trumpet trees.CONCLUSIONS:Cryptococcus neoformans , molecular type VNI had a higher prevalence than C. gattii and was associated with human exposure and the pathogenesis of cryptococcosis in this geographical region.

Case report of vancomycin-induced pancytopenia

Abstract: Vancomycin is the first-line agent for the treatment of bacteremia, endocarditis, pneumonia, cellulitis, and osteomyelitis. Pancytopenia is an uncommon adverse effect of vancomycin therapy, with only a few cases of vancomycin-related neutropenia and pancytopenia described in the literature. We describe a case of a 56-year-old man who was diagnosed with chronic paraspinal abscess and started on intravenous vancomycin. He was re-admitted two weeks later with new-onset pancytopenia. Discontinuation of vancomycin resulted in improved cell counts. Physicians should monitor cell counts in patients who are on long-term intravenous vancomycin.

Effectiveness of silver nitrate compared to talc slurry as pleural sclerosing agent in rabbits. Influence of concomitant intrapleural lidocaine

The ideal agent for producing pleurodesis has not been identified. Talc, the most commonly used, poses several problems. Another possibility is silver nitrate, which was widely used in the past. PURPOSE: To determine the influence of the intrapleural instillation of lidocaine in producing a pleurodesis with silver nitrate, to define the effect of lidocaine in the maturation of the collagen fibers, and to confirm that the pleurodesis after silver nitrate is stronger than after talc. METHODS: We studied three groups of 8 rabbits. Two groups received 0.5% silver nitrate; in one we had previously injected 0.5 ml of 2% lidocaine. The third group received 400 mg/kg talc (2 ml). The animals were sacrificed 28 days after the injection, and the pleural spaces were assessed grossly for evidence of pleurodesis and microscopically for evidence of inflammation and fibrosis. The total amount of pleural collagen and the distribution of thick and thin collagen fibers were quantified. Collagen was identified using picrosirius red stain. RESULTS: In the two groups that received silver nitrate (without lidocaine: 3.5 + 03 and with lidocaine: 3.2 + 0.3), the macroscopic pleurodesis (scale 0 -- 4) was significantly (p = 0.001) better than that resulting from talc (1.6 + 0.2). The mean degree of pleural fibrosis induced by silver nitrate (3.5 + 0.2) was significantly (p = 0.004) higher than that induced by talc (1.9 + 0.1). The previous instillation of lidocaine resulted in a tendency for decreased amounts of fibrosis (3.1 + 0.4). The mean amount (10³mm²) of pleural collagen was significantly (p = 0.009) greater in the rabbits that received silver nitrate (116.9 + 22.7) than in those that received talc (10.7 + 3.4). The injection of lidocaine slightly reduced the collagen (80.1 + 30.3). The distribution of collagen fibers did not differ among the groups. CONCLUSION: This rabbit model clearly confirms that intrapleural silver nitrate is more effective than talc for producing pleurodesis. The previous intrapleural instillation of lidocaine results in a decreasing trend in the amount of collagen, but does not change the effectiveness of the pleural fusion or modify the process of collagen maturation.

An agent based architecture to support monitoring in plug and produce manufacturing systems using knowledge extraction

In recent years a set of production paradigms were proposed in order to capacitate manufacturers to meet the new market requirements, such as the shift in demand for highly customized products resulting in a shorter product life cycle, rather than the traditional mass production standardized consumables. These new paradigms advocate solutions capable of facing these requirements, empowering manufacturing systems with a high capacity to adapt along with elevated flexibility and robustness in order to deal with disturbances, like unexpected orders or malfunctions. Evolvable Production Systems propose a solution based on the usage of modularity and self-organization with a fine granularity level, supporting pluggability and in this way allowing companies to add and/or remove components during execution without any extra re-programming effort. However, current monitoring software was not designed to fully support these characteristics, being commonly based on centralized SCADA systems, incapable of re-adapting during execution to the unexpected plugging/unplugging of devices nor changes in the entire system’s topology. Considering these aspects, the work developed for this thesis encompasses a fully distributed agent-based architecture, capable of performing knowledge extraction at different levels of abstraction without sacrificing the capacity to add and/or remove monitoring entities, responsible for data extraction and analysis, during runtime.

The effect of intravenous zoledronic acid on glucocorticoid-induced multiple vertebral fractures in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus

Glucocorticoids are widely used in the treatment of lupus patients, and adverse effects, which include osteoporosis and associated fractures, are frequent. Treatment of osteoporosis of young patients should be effective and not harmful to bone growth and remodeling. Bisphosphonates are drugs that decrease the incidence of bone fractures, but their use in juvenile patients is still controversial because of their possible side effects on the growing skeleton. However, recently published studies showed that linear growth continued normally after treatment with these drugs, and there was no excessive suppression of bone remodeling or mineralization defects. Zoledronic acid is a new intravenous bisphosphonate that has been approved by the US FDA for use with hypercalcemia of malignancies and might be an effective treatment for postmenopausal osteoporosis. The authors report a case of a young girl with systemic lupus who developed multiple vertebral collapses due to glucocorticoid therapy, and zoledronic acid was used producing significant clinical and densitometric improvement.

Assessment of a novel Cu (II) complex as a potential anticancer agent

Widely used in cancer treatment, chemotherapy still faces hindering challenges, ranging from severe induced toxicity to drug resistance acquisition. As means to overcome these setbacks, newly synthetized compounds have recently come into play with the basis of improved pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties. With this mind-set, this project aimed towards the antiproliferative potential characterization of a group of metallic compounds. Additionally the incorporation of the compounds within a nanoformulation and within new combination strategies with commercial chemotherapeutic drugs was also envisaged. Cell viability assays presented copper (II) compound (K4) as the most promising, presenting an IC50 of 6.10 μM and 19.09 μM for HCT116 and A549 cell line respectively. Exposure in fibroblasts revealed a 9.18 μM IC50. Hoechst staining assays further revealed the compound’s predisposition to induce chromatin condensation and nuclear fragmentation in HCT116 upon exposure to K4 which was later demonstrated by flow cytometry and annexin V-FITC/propidium iodide double staining analysis (under 50 % cell death induction). The compound further revealed the ability to interact with major macromolecules such as DNA (Kb = 2.17x105 M-1), inducing structural brakes and retardation, and further affecting cell cycle progression revealing delay in S-phase. Moreover BSA interactions were also visible however not conclusive. Proteome profiling revealed overexpression of proteins involved in metabolic activity and underexpression of proteins involved in apoptosis thus corroborating Hoechst and apoptosis flow cytometry data. K4 nanoformulation suffered from several hindrances and was ill succeeded in part due to K4’s poor solubility in aqueous buffers. Other approaches were considered in this regard. Combined chemotherapy assays revealed high cytotoxicity for afatinib and lapatinib strategies. Lapatinib and K4 proteome profiling further revealed high apoptosis rates, high metabolic activity and activation of redundant proteins as part of compensatory mechanisms.

An agent-based model to assess the attractiveness of industrial estates

This article describes the main approaches adopted in a study focused on planning industrial estates on a sub-regional scale. The study was supported by an agent-based model, using firms as agents to assess the attractiveness of industrial estates. The simulation was made by the NetLogo toolkit and the environment represents a geographical space. Three scenarios and four hypotheses were used in the simulation to test the impact of different policies on the attractiveness of industrial estates. Policies were distinguished by the level of municipal coordination at which they were implemented and by the type of intervention. In the model, the attractiveness of industrial estates was based on the level of facilities, amenities, accessibility and on the price of land in each industrial estate. Firms are able to move and relocate whenever they find an attractive estate. The relocating firms were selected by their size, location and distance to an industrial estate. Results show that a coordinated policy among municipalities is the most efficient policy to promote advanced-qualified estates. In these scenarios, it was observed that more industrial estates became attractive, more firms were relocated and more vacant lots were occupied. Furthermore, the results also indicate that the promotion of widespread industrial estates with poor-quality infrastructures and amenities is an inefficient policy to attract firms.

Protein-based nanodevices for therapeutic applications

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia Molecular e Ambiental (área de especialização em Biologia Celular e Saúde).

Study of Coronary Flow Reserve with Intravenous Use of Microbubbles (Contrast Echocardiography) and Adenosine: Protocol for Clinical Application in Patients Suspected of Having Coronary Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE: To test the feasibility, safety and accuracy of the adenosine protocol in the study of myocardial perfusion with microbubbles contrast echocardiography. METHODS: 81 pts (64 male, 60+11 years) were submitted to contrast echocardiography with PESDA (sonicated solution of albumin 20%-1ml, dextrose 5%-12ml and deca-fluorobutane gas-8ml) to study the myocardial perfusion at rest and after bolus injection of adenosine (6 to 18mg) and to coronary angiography within 1 month each other. For each patient 3 left ventricle perfusion beds were considered (total of 243 territories). 208 territories were analyzed and 35 territories were excluded. PESDA was continuously infused (1-2ml/min), titrated for best myocardial contrast. Triggered (1:1) second harmonic imaging was used. RESULTS: Coronary angiography showed 70 flow limiting (> 75%) lesions and 138 no flow limiting lesions. At rest an obvious myocardium contrast enhancement was seen in at least 1 segment of a territory in all patients. After adenosine injection an unquestionable further increase in myocardial contrast was observed in 136 territories (99%) related to no flow limiting lesions, lasting < 10 s, and a myocardial perfusion defect was detected in 68 territories (97%) related to flow limiting lesions. It was observed only 4 false results. There were no serious complications. CONCLUSION: Myocardial perfusion study with PESDA and adenosine protocol is a practical, safe and accurate method to analyze the coronary flow reserve.

When is the Best Time for the Second Antiplatelet Agent in Non-St Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome?

Abstract Dual antiplatelet therapy is a well-established treatment in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS), with class I of recommendation (level of evidence A) in current national and international guidelines. Nonetheless, these guidelines are not precise or consensual regarding the best time to start the second antiplatelet agent. The evidences are conflicting, and after more than a decade using clopidogrel in this scenario, benefits from the routine pretreatment, i.e. without knowing the coronary anatomy, with dual antiplatelet therapy remain uncertain. The recommendation for the upfront treatment with clopidogrel in NSTE-ACS is based on the reduction of non-fatal events in studies that used the conservative strategy with eventual invasive stratification, after many days of the acute event. This approach is different from the current management of these patients, considering the established benefits from the early invasive strategy, especially in moderate to high-risk patients. The only randomized study to date that specifically tested the pretreatment in NSTE-ACS in the context of early invasive strategy, used prasugrel, and it did not show any benefit in reducing ischemic events with pretreatment. On the contrary, its administration increased the risk of bleeding events. This study has brought the pretreatment again into discussion, and led to changes in recent guidelines of the American and European cardiology societies. In this paper, the authors review the main evidence of the pretreatment with dual antiplatelet therapy in NSTE-ACS.

Implementation of the ordinal shapley value for a three-agent economy

We propose a simple mechanism that implements the Ordinal Shapley Value (Pérez-Castrillo and Wettstein [2005]) for economies with three or less agents.