Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Values of children and family models of adolescents: An eleven-culture study

Starting from Kagitcibasi's (2007) conceptualization of family models, this study compared N = 2961 adolescents' values across eleven cultures and explored whether patterns of values were related to the three proposed family models through cluster analyses. Three clusters with value profiles corresponding to the family models of interdependence, emotional interdependence, and independence were identified on the cultural as well as on the individual level. Furthermore, individual-level clusters corresponded to culture-level clusters in terms of individual cluster membership. The results largely support Kagitcibasi's proposition of changing family models and demonstrate their representation as individual-level value profiles across cultures.

Avian area vasculosa and CAM as rapid in vivo pro-angiogenic and antiangiogenic models.

Angiogenesis, the development of new blood vessels from preexisting ones, is driven by coordinated signaling pathways governed by specific molecules, hemodynamic forces, and endothelial and periendothelial cells. The processes involve adhesion, migration, and survival machinery within the target endothelial and periendothelial cells. Factors that interfere with any of these processes may therefore influence angiogenesis either positively (pro-angiogenesis) or negatively (antiangiogenesis). The avian area vasculosa (AV) and the avian chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) are two useful tools for studying both angiogenesis and antiangiogenesis since they are amenable to both intravascular and topical administration of target, agents, are relatively rapid assays, and can be adapted very easily to study angiogenesis-dependent processes, such as tumor growth. Both models provide a physiological setting that permits investigation of pro-angiogenic and antiangiogenic agent interactions in vivo.

Plasma environment of a weak comet – Predictions for Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko from multifluid-MHD and Hybrid models

The interaction of a comet with the solar wind undergoes various stages as the comet’s activity varies along its orbit. For a comet like 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, the target comet of ESA’s Rosetta mission, the various features include the formation of a Mach cone, the bow shock, and close to perihelion even a diamagnetic cavity. There are different approaches to simulate this complex interplay between the solar wind and the comet’s extended neutral gas coma which include magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and hybrid-type models. The first treats the plasma as fluids (one fluid in basic single fluid MHD) and the latter treats the ions as individual particles under the influence of the local electric and magnetic fields. The electrons are treated as a charge-neutralizing fluid in both cases. Given the different approaches both models yield different results, in particular for a low production rate comet. In this paper we will show that these differences can be reduced when using a multifluid instead of a single-fluid MHD model and increase the resolution of the Hybrid model. We will show that some major features obtained with a hybrid type approach like the gyration of the cometary heavy ions and the formation of the Mach cone can be partially reproduced with the multifluid-type model.

Comparison of 3D kinetic and hydrodynamic models to ROSINA-COPS measurements of the neutral coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) is a Jupiter-family comet and the object of investigation of the European Space Agency mission Rosetta. This report presents the first full 3D simulation results of 67P’s neutral gas coma. In this study we include results from a direct simulation Monte Carlo method, a hydrodynamic code, and a purely geometric calculation which computes the total illuminated surface area on the nucleus. All models include the triangulated 3D shape model of 67P as well as realistic illumination and shadowing conditions. The basic concept is the assumption that these illumination conditions on the nucleus are the main driver for the gas activity of the comet. As a consequence, the total production rate of 67P varies as a function of solar insolation. The best agreement between the model and the data is achieved when gas fluxes on the night side are in the range of 7% to 10% of the maximum flux, accounting for contributions from the most volatile components. To validate the output of our numerical simulations we compare the results of all three models to in situ gas number density measurements from the ROSINA COPS instrument. We are able to reproduce the overall features of these local neutral number density measurements of ROSINA COPS for the time period between early August 2014 and January 1 2015 with all three models. Some details in the measurements are not reproduced and warrant further investigation and refinement of the models. However, the overall assumption that illumination conditions on the nucleus are at least an important driver of the gas activity is validated by the models. According to our simulation results we find the total production rate of 67P to be constant between August and November 2014 with a value of about 1 × 10²⁶ molecules s⁻¹.

The Interplay between Melting, Refertilization and Carbonatite Metasomatism in Off-Cratonic Lithospheric Mantle under Zealandia: an Integrated Major, Trace and Platinum Group Element Study

It is widely accepted that stabilization of the continental crust requires the presence of sub-continental lithospheric mantle. However, the degree of melt depletion required to stabilize the lithosphere and whether widespread refertilization is a significant process remain unresolved. Here, major and trace element, including platinum group elements (PGE), characterization of 40 mantle xenoliths from 13 localities is used to constrain the melt depletion, refertilization and metasomatic history of lithospheric mantle underneath the micro-continent Zealandia. Our previously published Re–Os isotopic data for a subset of these xenoliths indicate Phanerozoic to Paleoproterozoic ages and, reinterpreted with the new major and trace element data presented here, demonstrate that a large volume (>2 million km3) of lithospheric mantle with an age of 1·99 ± 0·21 Ga is present below the much younger crust of Zealandia. A peritectic melting model using moderately incompatible trace elements (e.g. Yb) in bulk-rocks demonstrates that these peridotites experienced a significant range of degrees of partial melting, between 3 and 28%. During subsolidus equilibration clinopyroxene gains significant rare earth elements (REE), which then leads to the underestimation of the degree of partial melting by ≤12% in fertile xenoliths. A new approach taking into account the effects of subsolidus re-equilibration on clinopyroxene composition effectively removes discrepancies in the calculated degree of melting and provides consistent estimates of between 4 and 29%. The estimated amount of melting is independent of the Re–Os model ages of the samples. The PGE patterns record simple melt depletion histories and the retention of primary base metal sulfides in the majority of the xenoliths. A rapid decrease in Pt/IrN observed at c. 1·0 wt % Al2O3 is a direct result of the exhaustion of sulfide in the mantle residue at c. 20–25% partial melting and the inability of Pt to form a stable alloy phase. Major elements preserve evidence for refertilization by a basaltic component that resulted in the formation of secondary clinopyroxene and low-forsterite olivine. The majority of xenoliths show the effects of cryptic metasomatic overprinting, ranging from minor to strong light REE enrichments in bulk-rocks (La/YbN = 0·16–15·9). Metasomatism is heterogeneous, with samples varying from those with weak REE enrichment and notable positive Sr and U–Th anomalies and negative Nb–Ta anomalies in clinopyroxene to those that have extremely high concentrations of REE, Th–U and Nb. Chemical compositions are consistent with a carbonatitic component contributing to the metasomatism of the lithosphere under Zealandia. Notably, the intense metasomatism of the samples did not affect the PGE budget of the peridotites as this was controlled by residual sulfides.

Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

An integrated molecular biology and computational approach to CYP1A1 expression in human brain

The cytochromes P450 comprise a superfamily of heme-containing mono-oxygenases. These enzymes metabolize numerous xenobiotics, but also play a role in metabolism of endogenous compounds. The P450 1A1 enzyme generally metabolizes polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and its expression can be induced by aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) activation. CYP1A1 is an exception to the generality that the majority of CYPs demonstrate highest expression in liver; CYP1Al is present in numerous extrahepatic tissues, including brain. This P450 has been observed in two forms, wildtype (WT) and brain variant (BV), arising from alternatively spliced mRNA transcripts. The CYP1A1 BV mRNA presented an exon deletion and was detected in human brain but not liver tissue of the same individuals. ^ Quantitative PCR analyses were performed to determine CYP1A1 WT and BV transcript expression levels in normal, bipolar disorder or schizophrenic groups. In our samples, we show that CYP1A1 BV mRNA, when present, is found alongside the full-length form. Furthermore, we demonstrate a significant decrease in expression of CYP1A1 in patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia. The expression level was not influenced by post-mortem interval, tissue pH, age, tobacco use, or lifetime antipsychotic medication load. ^ There is no indication of increased brain CYP1A1 expression in normal smokers versus non-smokers in these samples. We observed slightly increased CYP1A1 expression only in bipolar and schizophrenic smokers versus non-smokers. This may be indicative of complex interactions between neuronal chemical environments and AhR-mediated CYP1A1 induction in brain. ^ Structural homology modeling demonstrated that P450 1A1 BV has several alterations to positions/orientations of substrate recognition site residues compared to the WT isoform. Automated substrate docking was employed to investigate the potential binding of neurological signaling molecules and neurotropic drugs, as well as to differentiate specificities of the two P450 1A1 isoforms. We consistently observed that the BV isoform produced energetically favorable substrate dockings in orientations not observed for the same substrate in the WT isoform. These results demonstrated that structural differences, namely an expanded substrate access channel and active site, confer greater capacity for unique compound docking positions suggesting a metabolic profile distinct from the wildtype form for these test compounds. ^

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

(Table 2) Integrated concentration, production and dissolution of silica in the water column of the southern Pacific

An intense diatom bloom developed within a strong meridional silicic acid gradient across the Antarctic Polar Front at 61°S, 170°W following stratification of the water column in late October/early November 1997. The region of high diatom biomass and the silicic acid gradient propogated southward across the Seasonal Ice Zone through time, with the maximum diatom biomass tracking the center of the silicic acid gradient. High diatom biomass and high rates of silica production persisted within the silicic acid gradient until the end of January 1998 (ca. 70 d) driving the gradient over 500 km to the south of its original position at the Polar Front. The bloom consumed 30 to >40 µM Si(OH)4 in the euphotic zone between about 60 and 66°S leaving near surface concentrations <2.5 µM and occasionally <1.0 µM in its wake. Integrated biogenic silica concentrations within the bloom averaged 410 mmol Si/m**2 (range 162-793 mmol Si/m**2). Average integrated silica production on two consecutive cruises in December 1997 and January 1998 that sampled the bloom while it was well developed were 27.5±6.9 and 22.6±20 mmol Si/m**2/d, respectively. Those levels of siliceous biomass and silica production are similar in magnitude to those reported for ice-edge diatom blooms in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, which is considered to be among the most productive regions in the Southern Ocean. Net silica production (production minus dissolution) in surface waters during the bloom was 16-21 mmol Si/m**2/d, which is sufficient for diatom growth to be the cause of the southward displacement of the silicic acid gradient. A strong seasonal change in silica dissolution : silica production rate ratios was observed. Integrated silica dissolution rates in the upper 100-150 m during the low biomass period before stratification averaged 64% of integrated production. During the bloom integrated dissolution rates averaged only 23% of integrated silica production, making 77% of the opal produced available for export to depth. The bloom ended in late January apparently due to a mixing event. Dissolution : production rate ratios increased to an average of 0.67 during that period indicating a return to a predominantly regenerative system. Our observations indicate that high diatom biomass and high silica production rates previously observed in the marginal seas around Antarctica also occur in the deep ocean near the Polar Front. The bloom we observed propagated across the latitudinal band overlying the sedimentary opal belt which encircles most of Antarctica implying a role for such blooms in the formation of those sediments. Comparison of our surface silica production rates with new estimates of opal accumulation rates in the abyssal sediments of the Southern Ocean, which have been corrected for sediment focusing, indicate a burial efficiency of <=4.6% for biogenic silica. That efficiency is considerably lower than previous estimates for the Southern Ocean.

An integrated biostratigraphy (conodonts and foraminifers) and chronostratigraphy (paleomagnetic reversals, magnetic susceptibility, elemental chemistry, carbon isotopes and geochronology) for the Permian-Triassic strata of Guandao section

The chronostratigraphy of Guandao section has served as the foundation for numerous studies of the end-Permian extinction and biotic recovery in south China. Guandao section is continuous from the Permian-Triassic boundary to the Upper Triassic.Conodonts enable broad delineation of stage and substage boundaries and calibration of foraminifer biostratigraphy as follows. Changhsingian- Griesbachian: first Hindeodus parvus, and first appearance of foraminifers Postcladella kalhori and Earlandia sp. Griesbachian-Dienerian: first Neospathodus dieneri, and last appearance of foraminifer P. grandis. Dienerian-Smithian: first Novispathodus waageni and late Dienerian first appearance of foraminifer Hoyenella ex gr. sinensis. Smithian-Spathian: first Nv? crassatus and last appearance of foraminifers Arenovidalina n. sp. and Glomospirella cf. vulgaris. Spathian-Aegean: first Chiosella timorensis and first appearance of foraminifer Meandrospira dinarica. Aegean-Bithynian: first Nicoraella germanica and first appearance of foraminifer Pilammina densa. Bithynian-Pelsonian: after last Neogondolella regalis, prior to first Paragondolella bulgarica and first appearance of foraminifer Aulotortus eotriasicus. Pelsonian-Illyrian: first Pg. excelsa and last appearance of foraminifers Meandrospira ? deformata and Pilamminella grandis. Illyrian-Fassanian: first Budurovignathus truempyi, and first appearance of foraminifers Abriolina mediterranea and Paleolituonella meridionalis. Fassanian-Longobardian: first Bv. mungoensis and last appearance of foraminifer A. mediterranea. Longobardian-Cordevolian: first Quadralella polygnathiformis and last appearance of foraminifers Turriglomina mesotriasica and Endotriadella wirzi. The section contains primary magnetic signature with frequent reversals occurring around the Permian-Triassic, Olenekian-Anisian, and Anisian-Ladinian boundaries. Predominantly normal polarity occurs in the lower Smithian, Bithynian, and Longobardian-Cordevolian. Predominantly reversed polarity occurs in the upper Griesbachian, Induan-Olenekian, Pelsonian and lower Illyrian. Reversals match well with the GPTS. Large amplitude carbon isotope excursions, attaining values as low as -2.9 per mil d13C and high as +5.7 per mil d13C, characterize the Lower Triassic and basal Anisian. Values stabilize around +2 per mil d13C through the Anisian to Carnian. Similar signatures have been reported globally. Magnetic susceptibility and synthetic gamma ray logs show large fluctuations in the Lower Triassic and an overall decline in magnitude of fluctuation through the Middle and Upper Triassic. The largest spikes in magnetic susceptibility and gamma ray, indicating greater terrestrial lithogenic flux, correspond to positive d13C excursions. Several volcanic ash horizons occur in the Lower Triassic and Olenekian-Anisian boundary. High resolution U-Pb analysis of zircons provide a robust age of 247.2 Ma for the Olenekian-Anisian boundary.