Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Decadal-to-centennial scale variations during the Holocene reconstructed from sediment core D13902

Sea surface temperature (SST), marine productivity, and fluvial input have been reconstructed for the last 11.5 calendar (cal) ka B.P. using a high-resolution study of C37 alkenones, coccolithophores, iron content, and higher plant n-alkanes and n-alkan-1-ols in sedimentary sequences from the inner shelf off the Tagus River Estuary in the Portuguese Margin. The SST record is marked by a continuous decrease from 19C, at 10.5 and 7 ka, to 15C at present. This trend is interrupted by a fall from 18C during the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods to 16C in the Little Ice Age. River input was very low in the early Holocene but increased in the last 3 cal ka B.P. in association with an intensification of agriculture and deforestation and possibly the onset of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modes of variability. River influence must have reinforced the marine cooling trend relative to the lower amplitude in similar latitude sites of the eastern Atlantic. The total concentration of alkenones reflects river-induced productivity, being low in the early Holocene but increasing as river input became more important. Rapid cooling, of 1-2C occurring in 250 years, is observed at 11.1, 10.6, 8.2, 6.9, and 5.4 cal ka B.P. The estimated age of these events matches the ages of equivalent episodes common in the NE Atlantic- Mediterranean region. This synchronicity reveals a common widespread climate feature, which considering the twentieth century analog between colder SSTs and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is likely to reflect periods of strong negative NAO.

Dinoflagelados (Peridiniales, Prorocentrales) do microplâncton na plataforma continental e talude do extremo sul do Brasil (inverno 2005, verão 2007)

This study aimed at identifying morpho-species of microplankton dinoflagellates (> 20 μm) of the order Peridiniales and Prorocentrales off Santa Marta Grande Cape, CSMG (SC, 28º 40’ S) and Albardão-Chui, AC ( r S, 34º 40’ S) during oceanographic cruises conducted in winter 2005 and summer 2007. Plankton samples were obtained by vertical net (mesh size 20 μm) hauls preserved with formaldehyde 4% and analyzed using the inverted microscope equipped with a digital camera. The identification of Peridiniales species was based on the number and morphology of thecal plates enhanced with Calco Fluor White M r 2 whenever necessary and the identification of Prorocentrales was based on cell size, shape, presence of apical processes, pore pattern and marks at the intercalary band. We identified 25 species, including Protoperidinium (11), Prorocentrum (6), Corythodinium (3), Podolampas (2), Oxytoxum (2) and Heterocapsa (1). Prorocentrum species were widely distributed on the continental shelf of southern Brazil, while Peridiniales species were mainly found off Albardão-Chui during winter, especially under the influence of the plume of La Plata River. Oxytoxum milneri was the first time recorded in southern Brazil, while Protoperidinium cassum var. cassum , P. curtipes and Heterocapsa triquetra , were first registered in Brazil.

The Southern Ischia canyon system: examples of deep sea depositional systems on the continental slope off Campania (Italy)

The Southern Ischia canyon system has been investigated in detail through Multibeam bathymetry and Sparker seismic data and has been put in the geological framework of the deep sea depositional systems off the Campania region. The geological and geomorphological characteristics of the canyon system have been also compared with the characters of the Mediterranean submarine canyons and with the deep sea depositional systems of the Tyrrhenian sea. The Southern Ischia canyon system engraves a narrow continental shelf from Punta Imperatore to Punta San Pancrazio, being limited southwestwards from the relict volcanic edifice of the Ischia Bank. It consists of twenty-two drainage axes, whose planimetric trending has been reconstructed in a sketch morphological map realized through the geological interpretation of Multibeam bathymetry. While the eastern boundary of the canyon system is controlled by extensional tectonics, being limited by a NE-SW trending (anti-Apenninic) normal fault, its western boundary is controlled by volcanism, due to the growth of the Ischia volcanic bank. Submarine gravitational instabilities also acted in relationships to the canyon system, allowing for the individuation of large-scale creeping at the sea bottom and hummocky deposits already interpreted as debris avalanche deposits. Quaternary marine seismic sequences have been reconstructed through a densely spaced seismic grid recorded through a Sparker multitip seismic source, allowing for a detailed observation of steep erosional slopes occurring on the southern flank of the island and related deep sea depositional systems. Important implications of this study will regard the coastal monitoring and beach nourishment of the southern flank of the island, being involved by a strong erosion of marine and coastal systems.

Reproductive parameters of rhinobatid and urolophid batoids taken as by-catch in the Queensland (Australia) east coast otter-trawl fishery

Reproductive variables are provided for batoids regularly taken as by-catch in the east coast otter-trawl fishery on the inner-mid continental shelf off the south-east and central coasts of Queensland, Australia. Total length at maturity (LT50 and 95% c.i.) for the eastern shovelnose ray Aptychotrema rostrata was 639·5 mm (617·6–663·4 mm) for females and 597·3 mm (551·4–648·6 mm) for males. Litter size (n = 9) ranged from nine to 20 (mean ± s.e. = 15·1 ± 1·2). This species exhibited a positive litter size–maternal size relationship. Disc width at maturity (WD50 and 95% c.i.) for the common stingaree Trygonoptera testacea was 162·7 mm (155·8–168·5 mm) for females and 145·9 mm (140·2–150·2 mm) for males. Gravid T. testacea (n = 6) each carried a single egg in the one functional (left) uterus. Disc width at maturity (WD50 and 95% c.i.) for the Kapala stingaree Urolophus kapalensis was 153·7 mm (145·1–160·4 mm) for females and 155·2 mm (149·1–159·1 mm) for males. Gravid U. kapalensis (n = 16) each carried a single egg or embryo in the one functional (left) uterus. A single female yellowback stingaree Urolophus sufflavus carried an embryo in each uterus. A global review of the litter sizes of shovelnose rays (Rhinobatidae) and stingarees (Urolophidae) is provided.

Resistivity image beneath an area of active methane seeps in the west Svalbard continental slope

The Arctic continental margin contains large amounts of methane in the form of methane hydrates. The west Svalbard continental slope is an area where active methane seeps have been reported near the landward limit of the hydrate stability zone. The presence of bottom simulating reflectors (BSR) on seismic reflection data in water depths greater than 600 m suggests the presence of free gas beneath gas hydrates in the area. Resistivity obtained from marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) data provides a useful complement to seismic methods for detecting shallow hydrate and gas as they are more resistive than surrounding water saturated sediments. We acquired two CSEM lines in the west Svalbard continental slope, extending from the edge of the continental shelf (250 m water depth) to water depths of around 800 m. High resistivities (5-12 Ωm) observed above the BSR support the presence of gas hydrate in water depths greater than 600 m. High resistivities (3-4 Ωm) at 390-600 m water depth also suggest possible hydrate occurrence within the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) of the continental slope. In addition, high resistivities (4-8 Ωm) landward of the GHSZ are coincident with high-amplitude reflectors and low velocities reported in seismic data that indicate the likely presence of free gas. Pore space saturation estimates using a connectivity equation suggest 20-50% hydrate within the lower slope sediments and less than 12% within the upper slope sediments. A free gas zone beneath the GHSZ (10-20% gas saturation) is connected to the high free gas saturated (10-45%) area at the edge of the continental shelf, where most of the seeps are observed. This evidence supports the presence of lateral free gas migration beneath the GHSZ towards the continental shelf.

Tide-topography interaction along the eastern Brazilian shelf

In the Tropics, continental shelves governed by western boundary currents are considered to be among the least productive ocean margins in the world, unless eddy-induced shelf-edge upwelling becomes significant. The eastern Brazilian shelf in the Southwest Atlantic is one of these, and since the slight nutrient input from continental sources is extremely oligotrophic. It is characterized by complex bathymetry with the presence of shallow banks and seamounts. In this work, a full three-dimensional nonlinear primitive equation ocean model is used to demonstrate that the interaction of tidal currents and the bottom topography of the east Brazil continental shelf is capable of producing local upwelling of South Atlantic Central Water, bringing nutrients up from deep waters to the surface layer. Such upper layer enrichment is found to be of significance in increasing local primary productivity. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-shore transport in a daily varying upwelling regime: A case study of barnacle larvae on the southwestern Iberian coast.

With favored offshore and downstream advection, the question of which physical mechanism may promote onshore transport of larvae in upwelling systems is of central interest. We have conducted a semi-realistic high resolution (0.25 km) numerical study of Lagrangian transports across the inner-shelf under upwelling-favorable wind forcing conditions, focusing on the shelf area of the Southwestern Portuguese coast, in the lee of Cape Sines. We add our findings to several years of biological observations of C. montagui, a planktonic species with higher recruitment during the upwelling peak timely with the daylight flood. Simulations cover a fifteen days period during the summer of 2006. We focused on Spring and Neap tide periods and observed upfront differences between simulations and the in situ observa- tions. However, the model is capable of representing the main dynamics of the region, namely the re- petitive character of the inner-shelf currents. We find that the cross-shore flow varies significantly in the daily cycle, and locally within a scale of a few kilometers in association with local topography and the presence of the cape. We consider the region immediately in the lee of the cape to be an upwelling shadow where the larvae became retained, and found that tidally tied migration proves beneficial for successful recruitment during the spring tides period. Our work suggested that the wind is not the only mechanism responsible for the daily variability of the cross-shore exchange. However, its sharp reversal at midday is critical for the advection of larvae towards the coast.

Fish Biodiversity Of The Vitória-trindade Seamount Chain, Southwestern Atlantic: An Updated Database.

Despite a strong increase in research on seamounts and oceanic islands ecology and biogeography, many basic aspects of their biodiversity are still unknown. In the southwestern Atlantic, the Vitória-Trindade Seamount Chain (VTC) extends ca. 1,200 km offshore the Brazilian continental shelf, from the Vitória seamount to the oceanic islands of Trindade and Martin Vaz. For a long time, most of the biological information available regarded its islands. Our study presents and analyzes an extensive database on the VTC fish biodiversity, built on data compiled from literature and recent scientific expeditions that assessed both shallow to mesophotic environments. A total of 273 species were recorded, 211 of which occur on seamounts and 173 at the islands. New records for seamounts or islands include 191 reef fish species and 64 depth range extensions. The structure of fish assemblages was similar between islands and seamounts, not differing in species geographic distribution, trophic composition, or spawning strategies. Main differences were related to endemism, higher at the islands, and to the number of endangered species, higher at the seamounts. Since unregulated fishing activities are common in the region, and mining activities are expected to drastically increase in the near future (carbonates on seamount summits and metals on slopes), this unique biodiversity needs urgent attention and management.

Marcadores orgânicos de contaminação por esgotos sanitários em sedimentos superficiais da baía de Santos, São Paulo

Organic markers, such as sterols and ketones, were used to assess sewage contamination in sediments from the Santos Bay, SP, and its continental shelf. These compounds were analyzed by GC/FID after soxhlet extraction, clean up and derivatization. The concentration of coprostanol and ratios between selected sterols were used to evaluate fecal contamination. The stations located in the mid-western part of the Santos Bay presented organic matter from sewage due to the input of fecal material from the city of Santos by submarine sewage outfall. Stations located at the continental shelf did not present fecal contamination. Coprostanol levels in sewage outfall stations were higher in comparison to other Brazilian coastal areas, except Guanabara Bay/RJ, and could be related to the fraction of the population without sewage treatment.

Caracterização de feições oceanográficas na plataforma de Santa Catarina através de imagens orbitais

Este trabalho tem por objetivo identificar e caracterizar as feições oceanográficas de pequena e mesoescala que ocorrem na plataforma continental de Santa Catarina (SC). Foram empregadas imagens de temperatura e concentração de clorofila da superfície do mar (TSM e CSM), obtidas pelo sensor MODIS. Foi selecionada uma imagem diária para cada mês do ano de 2003, excetuando dezembro, onde procurou-se avaliar efeitos sazonais. As feições oceanográficas foram observadas através da aplicação de diferentes níveis de contraste e paletas de cores para realce. Foram identificadas feições como vórtices, meandros, cogumelos, plumas, filamentos, frentes e áreas de ressurgências. Os resultados indicam que no verão a distribuição superficial em mesoescala da temperatura é mais homogênea, levando a um número menor de feições observáveis. O fenômeno de ressurgência costeira em escala localizada ao sul da Ilha de SC e junto à costa foi observado nos meses de novembro, janeiro e fevereiro. Durante o outono e o inverno as imagens apresentaram maior grau de complexidade, principalmente devido à presença da frente costeira do Prata, com características de menor temperatura e maiores valores de clorofila.

Analysis of foraminifera assemblages and sediment geochemical properties to characterise the environment near Araca and Saco da Cape la domestic sewage submarine outfalls of Sao Sebastiao Channel, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Superficial bottom samples were collected near diffusers of domestic sewage submarine outfalls at Araca and Saco da Capela, Sao Sebastiao Channel, Brazil. The goal of this study was to investigate the distribution and composition of live benthic foraminifera assemblages and integrate the results obtained with geochemical analyses to assess human-induced changes. According to the results obtained no environmental stress was observed near the Saco da Capela submarine outfall diffusers. The foraminifera assemblage is characterised by species typical of highly hydrodynamic environments, with well-oxygenated bottom waters and low nutrient contents. In contrast, near Araca submarine outfall, organic enrichment was denoted by high phosphorus, sulphur and, to a lesser extent, total organic carbon content. Harmful influences on foraminifera could be identified by low richness and specific diversity, as well as the predominance of detritivore feeder species, which are associated with higher organic matter flux and low oxygen in the interstitial pore water. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sexual maturity and egg production in an unexploited population of the red squat lobster Pleuroncodes monodon (Decapoda, Galatheidae) from Central America

The squat lobster Pleuroncodes monodon is one of the most common and abundant galatheid species in the deepwater fishery of Pacific coast of America. In contrast with Peru and Chile, the red squat lobster is not commercially exploited in Costa Rica. Here we estimated the size of sexual maturity and analysed egg production in P. monodon from the Pacific of Costa Rica; the results might be important for an adequate management strategy when initiating a sustainable fishery of this resource in Costa Rica. Analyses of allometric growth revealed that females and males reached their morphological sexual maturity at 26.9 and 30.4 mm CL. respectively. The percentage of immature females captured in the present study (54%) suggests that almost half of females are able to reproduce before they are caught. Egg production was positively correlated with body size; females that measured between 24.1 and 29.0 mm CL contributed roughly 90% to the offspring production of the population. Females from Costa Rica had a considerably lower average egg volume (0.039 mm(3)) and higher fecundity (9810) than females from Chile. In comparison to other American galatheids P. monodon from Costa Rica produces numerous but small eggs, a typical strategy of species with a prolonged larval development. An analysis between our results and information published about P. monodon from Chile also revealed differences in the size-frequency distribution shape of both populations. The non-exploited character of the Costa Rican P. monodon population and a latitudinal (temperature-related) cline in body size might be associated with these differences. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sediment yield and impacts from river catchments to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon

Land use intensification is estimated to result in an overall increase in sediment delivery to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon by a factor of approximately four. Modelling suggests that, following land use intensification, croplands cause the greatest increase of sediment yield and sediment concentration, whereas erosion of grazing land is the main contemporary source of sediments, primarily owing to the large spatial extent of this land use. The spatial pattern of sediment yield to the coast after land use intensification is strongly correlated with the pattern under natural conditions, although the greatest increase is estimated to have occurred in the wet-dry catchments. Sediment transport and resuspension processes have led to the development of a strongly sediment-partitioned shelf, with modern mud-rich sediments almost exclusively restricted to the inner and inner-middle shelf, northward-facing embayments and in the lee of headlands. Elevated sediment concentrations increase the potential transport rates of nutrients and other pollutants. Whether increased sediment supply to the coastal zone has impacted on reefs remains a point of contention. More sediment load data need to be collected and analysed in order to make detailed estimates of catchment yields and establish the possible sediment impact on the Great Barrier Reef.

Deep structure of the Santos basin-São Paulo plateau system, SE Brazil

The structure and nature of the crust underlying the Santos Basin-São Paulo Plateau System (SSPS), in the SE Brazilian margin, are discussed based on five wide-angle seismic profiles acquired during the Santos Basin (SanBa) experiment in 2011. Velocity models allow us to precisely divide the SSPS in six domains from unthinned continental crust (Domain CC) to normal oceanic crust (Domain OC). A seventh domain (Domain D), a triangular shape region in the SE of the SSPS, is discussed by Klingelhoefer et al. (2014). Beneath the continental shelf, a similar to 100km wide necking zone (Domain N) is imaged where the continental crust thins abruptly from similar to 40km to less than 15km. Toward the ocean, most of the SSPS (Domains A and C) shows velocity ranges, velocity gradients, and a Moho interface characteristic of the thinned continental crust. The central domain (Domain B) has, however, a very heterogeneous structure. While its southwestern part still exhibits extremely thinned (7km) continental crust, its northeastern part depicts a 2-4km thick upper layer (6.0-6.5km/s) overlying an anomalous velocity layer (7.0-7.8km/s) and no evidence of a Moho interface. This structure is interpreted as atypical oceanic crust, exhumed lower crust, or upper continental crust intruded by mafic material, overlying either altered mantle in the first two cases or intruded lower continental crust in the last case. The deep structure and v-shaped segmentation of the SSPS confirm that an initial episode of rifting occurred there obliquely to the general opening direction of the South Atlantic Central Segment.