Developing and maintaining infrastructure services for libraries, archives and museums

Esitys Helsingissä 24.9.2014.

Critical infrastructure protection against cyber threats

A postgraduate seminar series with a title Critical Infrastructure Protection against Cyber Threats held at the Department of Military Technology of the National Defence University in the fall of 2013 and 2014. This book is a collection of some of talks that were presented in the seminar. The papers address origin of critical infrastructure protection, wargaming cyberwar in critical infrastructure defence, cyber-target categorization, supervisory control and data acquisition systems vulnerabilities, electric power as critical infrastructure, improving situational awareness of critical infrastructure and trust based situation awareness in high security cloud environment. This set of papers tries to give some insight to current issues of the network-centric critical infrastructure protection. The seminar has always made a publication of the papers but this has been an internal publication of the Finnish Defence Forces and has not hindered publication of the papers in international conferences. Publication of these papers in peer reviewed conferences has indeed been always the goal of the seminar, since it teaches writing conference level papers. We still hope that an internal publication in the department series is useful to the Finnish Defence Forces by offering an easy access to these papers.

Maakaasumarkkinoiden integroimiseen vaikuttavat tekijät Suomessa ja Baltiassa

Tässä työssä tutkitaan, miksi maakaasumarkkinoita integroidaan ja mitkä tekijät ohjaavat Suomen ja Baltian maakaasumarkkinoiden yhdentymiskehitystä. Tutkimuskysymyksiin pyrittiin vastaamaan asiantuntijahaastatteluiden perusteella. EU:n tavoitteena on luoda Eurooppaan toimivat energian sisämarkkinat, ja huolena on ollut esimerkiksi Suomen ja Baltian eristäytyminen muiden EU:n jäsenvaltioiden energiamarkkinoista. Keskeisimmät hyödyt markkinaintegraatiosta ovat toimitusvarmuuden paraneminen vaihtoehtoisten hankintalähteiden myötä sekä suuremman markkinan muodostuminen, jolloin hinnanmuodostus on tehokkaampaa. Markkinoiden integroimiseksi tarvitaan investointeja infrastruktuuriin. Lisäksi markkinoiden integroituessa tulee ottaa käyttöön ENTSOG:n verkkokoodit. Markkinoiden yhdistyminen luo myös uusia liiketoimintamahdollisuuksia.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Legitimacy Building in Public Disclosures on Strategic Energy Investments

Renewable energy investments play a key role in energy transition. While studies have suggested that social acceptance may form a barrier for renewable energy investments, the ways in which companies perceive and attempt to gain the acceptance have received little attention. This study aims to fill the gap by exploring how large electric utilities justify their strategic investments in their press releases and how do the justifications differ between renewable and non-renewable energy investments. The study bases on legitimacy theory and aims at contributing to the research on legitimation in institutional change. As its research method, the study employs an inductive mixed method content analysis. The study has two parts: a qualitative content analysis that explores and identifies the themes and legitimation strategies of the press releases and a quantitative computer-aided analysis that compares renewable and non-renewable energy investments. The sample of the study consists of 396 press releases representing the strategic energy investments of 34 electric utilities from the list of the world’s 250 largest and financially most successful energy companies. The data is collected from the period of 2010–2014. The study reveals that most important justifications for strategic energy investments are fit with the strategy and environmental and social benefits. Justifications address especially the expectations of market. Investments into non-renewable energy are justified more and they use more arguments addressing the proprieties and performance of power plants whereas renewable energy investments are legitimized by references to past actions and commonly accepted morals and norms. The findings support the notion that validity-addressing and propriety-addressing legitimation strategies are used differently in stable and unstable institutional settings.

Capital investments planning and life cycle simulations for the new valves manufacturing facility in Russia

The focus of the research is on the derivation of the valid and reliable performance results regarding establishment and launching of the new full-scale industrial facility, considering the overall current conditions for the project realization in and out of Russia. The study demonstrates the process of the new facility concept development, with following perfor-mance calculation, comparative analyzes conduction, life-cycle simulations, performance indicators derivation and project`s sustainability evaluation. To unite and process the entire input parameters complexity, regards the interlacing between the project`s internal technical and commercial sides on the one hand, and consider all the specifics of the Russian conditions for doing business on the other hand, was developed the unique model for the project`s performance calculation, simulations and results representation. The complete research incorporates all corresponding data to substantiate the assigned facility`s design, sizing and output capacity for high quality and cost efficient ferrous pipe-line accessories manufacturing, as well as, demonstrates that this project could be suc-cessfully realized in current conditions in Russia and highlights the room for significant performance and sustainability improvements based on the indexes of the derived KPIs.

Tuottavuuden ja investointitehokkuuden parantaminen kunnallisteknisissä töissä

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää keinoja parantaa tuottavuutta ja investointitehokkuutta kunnallisteknisissä töissä. Tutkimusmenetelmäksi valittiin konstruktiivinen tutkimusmenetelmä, jossa käytännölliseen ongelmaan luodaan teoriapohjan kautta ratkaisuehdotus. Työn teoriaosuus käsittelee palveluiden tuottavuutta ja sen mittaamista. Työn tuloksena syntyi excel-työkalu, jonka avulla on mahdollista tarkastella palveluntuottajan konekannan aiheuttamia kustannuksia ja tuottoja. Työkalu laskee konekohtaiset kustannukset ja tuotot, joiden avulla palveluntuottajalle on mahdollista osoittaa aiempien investointien kannattavuus. Työkalu laskee kustannus- ja tuottoarvion myös vaihtoehtoiselle konekannalle, jossa alhaisen käyttöasteen koneita korvataan monipuolisemmalla kalustolla. Palveluntuottajan konekannan hallinta ja kustannusrakenteen tarkka määrittely ovat tärkeässä roolissa tuottavuuden ja kannattavuuden kehittämisessä. Työkalu mahdollistaa myös eri kustannuserissä tapahtuvien muutosten vaikutusten arvioinnin, mikä auttaa palveluntuottajia toiminnan pitkäjänteisessä kehittämisessä.