Excess Mortality associated to Influenza epidemic in Portugal, from 2007/2008 to 2014/2015 seasons

Mortality in the north hemisphere is higher in winter than in summer seasons, due to the influenza epidemics as well as cold temperatures. Portuguese influenza surveillance comprises clinical and laboratorial notifications of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) attended in the primary health care units and emergency rooms. Without information on specific cause of deaths in real time, estimation of influenza impact has been accessed using Portuguese Daily Mortality Monitoring System (VDM), that covers all cause mortality of Portuguese population. The aim of this study was to provide excess mortality, potentially associated to Influenza each season (between 2007/08 and 2014/15).

Excess pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal from 1998 to 2015

In Portugal there is no severe acute respiratory infection surveillance system in place. Estimation of influenza burden has been accessed using hospital discharge database that covers the mainland Portuguese population. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess of pneumonia or influenza (P&I) hospitalizations during influenza epidemics from seasons 1998-99 to 2014-15 in mainland Portugal.

A holistic attempt to predicating excess aftermarket returns of IPOs over a 90-day period post IPO

Double Degree

Evaluation and Process Improvement of Federal Excess Property for Fire Departments

Currently, there are two federal programs related to excess federal property in which the South Carolina Forestry Commission participates. There is a need to streamline the process for applying for federal excess property as well as tracking its location once it has been received and assigned.

The Behavior of Hydroxyl Units of Synthetic Goethite and its Dehydroxylated Product Hematite

The behavior of the hydroxyl units of synthetic goethite and its dehydroxylated product hematite was characterized using a combination of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction (XRD) during the thermal transformation over a temperature range of 180-270 degrees C. Hematite was detected at temperatures above 200 degrees C by XRD while goethite was not observed above 230 degrees C. Five intense OH vibrations at 3212-3194, 1687-1674, 1643-1640, 888-884 and 800-798 cm(-1), and a H2O vibration at 3450-3445 cm(-1) were observed for goethite. The intensity of hydroxyl stretching and bending vibrations decreased with the extent of dehydroxylation of goethite. Infrared absorption bands clearly show the phase transformation between goethite and hematite: in particular. the migration of excess hydroxyl units from goethite to hematite. Two bands at 536-533 and 454-452 cm(-1) are the low wavenumber vibrations of Fe-O in the hematite structure. Band component analysis data of FTIR spectra support the fact that the hydroxyl units mainly affect the a plane in goethite and the equivalent c plane in hematite.

Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

High quality indoor environments for office buildings

The quality of office indoor environments is considered to consist of those factors that impact the occupants according to their health and well-being and (by consequence) their productivity. Indoor Environment Quality (IEQ) can be characterized by four indicators: • Indoor air quality indicators • Thermal comfort indicators • Lighting indicators • Noise indicators. Within each indicator, there are specific metrics that can be utilized in determining an acceptable quality of an indoor environment based on existing knowledge and best practice. Examples of these metrics are: indoor air levels of pollutants or odorants; operative temperature and its control; radiant asymmetry; task lighting; glare; ambient noise. The way in which these metrics impact occupants is not fully understood, especially when multiple metrics may interact in their impacts. It can be estimated that the potential cost of lost productivity from poor IEQ may be much in excess of other operating costs of a building. However, the relative productivity impacts of each of the four indicators is largely unknown. The CRC Project ‘Regenerating Construction to Enhance Sustainability’ has a focus on IEQ impacts before and after building refurbishment. This paper provides an overview of IEQ impacts and criteria and the implementation of a CRC project that is currently researching these factors during the refurbishment of a Melbourne office building. IEQ measurements and their impacts will be reported in a future paper

Embodied vulnerabilities : responding to violent encounters through installation practices

This practice-led research was initiated in response to a series of violent encounters that occurred between my fragile installations and viewers. The central focus of this study was to recuperate my installation practice in the wake of such events. This led to the development of a ‘responsive practice’ methodology, which reframed the installation process through an ethical lens developed from Emmanuel Levinas’ ethical phenomenology. The central propositions of this research are the reconceptualisation of ‘violent encounters’ in terms of difference whereby I accept viewers responses, even those which are violent, destructive or damaging, and secondly that the process operates as a generative excess for practice through which recuperative strategies can be found and implemented. By re-examining this process as it unfolded in the three phases of the practical component, I developed strategies whereby violated, destroyed or damaged works could be recuperated through the processes of reconfiguration, reparation and regeneration. Therefore my installations embody and articulate vulnerability but also demonstrate resilience and renewal.

Comparing the ethical predisposition of university students in five English-speaking countries : an examination of 14 questionable business practices

Recent years have seen intense scrutiny focused on the reported ethical breaches of enterprises across the globe. At the forefront of the accompanying criticism are the actions of giant American firms such as WorldCom, Arthur Anderson, and Enron. However, such deviations from acceptable standards of conduct have not been confined to the American market. Australia endured its era of “corporate excess” in the 1980s [Milton-Smith, 1997]. As a result, a spate of ethics-based research was undertaken in the early 1990s. More recently, China has been identified as a major venue for behavior deemed to be unacceptable, even unsafe. Issues such as counterfeit fashion items, software, and automobile parts have been a concern for several years [Gonzalez, 2007]. Perhaps more disconcerting are the recent recalls of children’s products, many of which were produced for leading toy companies such as Mattel and Fisher-Price, because of the use of dangerous lead-based paint. As one might anticipate, news reports and consumer protection agencies have been quick to condemn any action that falls within the “controversial” category. Indeed, many segments of society characterize such actions as unethical behavior. One result of this increased level of concern is the higher level of attention given to ethics in higher education programs. Even accreditation bodies such as AACSB have virtually mandated the integration of ethics into the curriculum. As a consequence, academicians have ramped up their ethics-based research agendas.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Adaptive load shedding and regional protection

The requirement for improved efficiency whilst maintaining system security necessitates the development of improved system analysis approaches and the development of advanced emergency control technologies. Load shedding is a type of emergency control that is designed to ensure system stability by curtailing system load to match generation supply. This paper presents a new adaptive load shedding scheme that provides emergency protection against excess frequency decline, whilst minimizing the risk of line overloading. The proposed load shedding scheme uses the local frequency rate information to adapt the load shedding behaviour to suit the size and location of the experienced disturbance. The proposed scheme is tested in simulation on a 3-region, 10-generator sample system and shows good performance.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0907, July 2009 : President's Message

President’s Message AITPM President’s Message, July 2009 Hello fellow AITPM members, It’s now very early July so many Australians are going to experience a range of new, or increases in, fees, charges, and perhaps taxes by State and local governments. For example, Queenslanders are to be hit at the petrol pump, no longer living with the luxury of the State’s previous 8c per litre fuel subsidy, bringing general motorists’ fuel costs into line with the other States. A consolation is that they now don’t have to live with the real or perceived “price gouging” that has appeared in the past to make Queensland prices much closer than 8c to those in other States. Environmental lobbyists argue that this Government’s decision brings public transport costs closer to parity with private transport. However, my sense from sloppy petrol price elasticities is that the State’s motorists will get used to the reversal of what was a reverse tax pretty quickly, an amount which can be less than day-of-the week fluctuation. On the other hand, withholding this State revenue may help in some way the funding of the several major public transport infrastructure projects in progress; not to mention some of the cost of running the Transit Authority’s expanding service commitments. Other policy actions, such as a Federal Government review of taxation on employees’ package vehicles, which might discourage rather than encourage excess kilometres travelled, may have a greater environmental benefit. Of course, a downside is that many vehicles used so are Australian built, and discouraging fleet turnover may damage an industry which faces ever increasing uncertainty, and particularly at the present, is in need of some care and attention. I for one hope to this end that the new 4 cylinder (1.8L petrol or 2L diesel) so called “true Holden” Cruze and Toyota’s pending Camry Hybrid are both roaring successes, and will be taken up in droves as fleet and employee use vehicles. I’m not sure what drive-trains Ford and Holden plan to drop into their next full sized models but even if they’re not Australian sourced, let’s hope they coordinate the requisite performance expected by the “Aussie Battler” with suitable green credentials. I am also encouraged to see that already many Government fleet vehicles are smaller in size, but still fit for purpose. For instance, my local police station uses the Camry based Aurion as a district car. I close again in reminding everyone that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

Minimising speaker verification utterance length through confidence based early verification decisions

This paper presents a novel approach of estimating the confidence interval of speaker verification scores. This approach is utilised to minimise the utterance lengths required in order to produce a confident verification decision. The confidence estimation method is also extended to address both the problem of high correlation in consecutive frame scores, and robustness with very limited training samples. The proposed technique achieves a drastic reduction in the typical data requirements for producing confident decisions in an automatic speaker verification system. When evaluated on the NIST 2005 SRE, the early verification decision method demonstrates that an average of 5–10 seconds of speech is sufficient to produce verification rates approaching those achieved previously using an average in excess of 100 seconds of speech.

Dromoeconomics: Towards a Political Economy of Speed

In this article we present an alternative theoretical perspective on contemporary cultural, political and economic practices in advanced countries. Like other articles in this issue of parallax, our focus is on conceptualising the economies of excess. However, our ideas do not draw on the writings of Georges Bataille in The Accursed Share, but principally on Virilio’s Speed & Politics: An Essay on Dromology and Marx’s Capital and the Grundrisse.4 Using a modest synthesis of tools provided by these theorists, we put forward a tentative conceptualisation of ‘dromoeconomics’, or, a political economy of speed.

Discovery and characterization of IGFBP-mediated endocytosis in the human retinal pigment epithelial cell line ARPE-19

Insulin-like growth factor binding proteins (IGFBPs) are prime regulators of IGF-action in numerous cell types including the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). The RPE performs several functions essential for vision, including growth factor secretion and waste removal via a phagocytic process mediated in part by vitronectin (Vn). In the course of studying the effects of IGFBPs on IGF-mediated VEGF secretion and Vn-mediated phagocytosis in the RPE cell line ARPE-19, we have discovered that these cells avidly ingest synthetic microspheres (2.0 μm diameter) coated with IGFBPs. Given the novelty of this finding and the established role for endocytosis in mediating IGFBP actions in other cell types, we have explored the potential role of candidate cell surface receptors. Moreover, we have examined the role of key IGFBP structural motifs, by comparing responses to three members of the IGFBP family (IGFBP-3, IGFBP-4 and IGFBP-5) which display overlapping variations in primary structure and glycosylation status. Coating of microspheres (FluoSpheres®, sulfate modified polystyrene filled with a fluorophore) was conducted at 37 °C for 1 h using 20 μg/mL of test protein, followed by extensive washing. Binding of proteins was confirmed using a microBCA assay. The negative control consisted of microspheres treated with 0.1% bovine serum albumin (BSA), and all test samples were post-treated with BSA in an effort to coat any remaining free protein binding sites, which might otherwise encourage non-specific interactions with the cell surface. Serum-starved cultures of ARPE-19 cells were incubated with microspheres for 24 h, using a ratio of approximately 100 microspheres per cell. Uptake of microspheres was quantified using a fluorometer and was confirmed visually by confocal fluorescence microscopy. The ARPE-19 cells displayed little affinity for BSA-treated microspheres, but avidly ingested large quantities of those pre-treated with Vn (ANOVA; p < 0.001). Strong responses were also observed towards recombinant formulations of non-glycosylated IGFBP-3, glycosylated IGFBP-3 and glycosylated IGFBP-5 (all p < 0.001), while glycosylated IGFBP-4 induced a relatively minor response (p < 0.05). The response to IGFBP-3 was unaffected in the presence of excess soluble IGFBP-3, IGF-I or Vn. Likewise, soluble IGFBP-3 did not induce uptake of BSA-treated microspheres. Antibodies to either the transferrin receptor or type 1 IGF-receptor displayed slight inhibitory effects on responses to IGFBPs and Vn. Heparin abolished responses to Vn, IGFBP-5 and non-glycosylated IGFBP-3, but only partially inhibited the response to glycosylated IGFBP-3. Our results demonstrate for the first time IGFBP-mediated endocytosis in ARPE-19 cells and suggest roles for the IGFBP-heparin-binding domain and glycosylation status. These findings have important implications for understanding the mechanisms of IGFBP actions on the RPE, and in particular suggest a role for IGFBP-endocytosis.